NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 3
Here are my Week 3 main slate plays for DraftKings and FanDuel:
Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Update added 9/22.
Patrick Mahomes [DK: QB2, FD: QB1]
Mahomes appears pricy as the most- or second-most-expensive quarterback on both sites, but I still think he’s worth paying up for and I don’t think he’s that pricy. He’s the No. 1 quarterback in my rankings this week, which makes his $7,000 price-tag on DraftKings actually look like a value. Pricing is historically soft for quarterbacks this week. Over the past two years, the highest-priced quarterback on DraftKings has averaged a $7,700+ price-tag, so, to me, Mahomes looks more like a $700 value. And not only is he the top quarterback in my rankings, but he’s No. 1 by a wide margin.
Mahomes is on a historic pace, totaling 67.2 fantasy points through the first two weeks of the season. That’s the second-most by a quarterback ever, behind only 2018’s Ryan Fitzpatrick (who is off the main slate). His performance is backed up by our grading process as well. His 93.5 grade is the sixth-best grade by any quarterback through any two-week stretch since we started grading players in 2006. San Francisco has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, after surrendering the fifth-most last year. With the highest implied point total of the slate (31.25), I’ll be trying hard to fit Mahomes on my DraftKings lineups. Though, I will say, if you are fading him, you should turn to Kareem Hunt as a leverage play at only $6,000.
Blake Bortles [DK: QB16, FD: QB20]
If Leonard Fournette is out, Bortles is easily the top quarterback play of the slate. Over the past two seasons, Bortles averages 22.5 fantasy points per game, 320.0 passing yards per game, and 6.8 red zone attempts per game when Fournette is inactive. When Fournette plays, Bortles has averaged only 14.7 fantasy points, 210.6 passing yards, and 3.8 red zone attempts per game. This week he’s playing at home against Tennessee. The Titans gave up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last year and the only change they made to their secondary has been CB Malcolm Butler, who has surrendered more yards and more touchdowns than any other defender in the NFL this year.
Latavius Murray [DK: RB17, FD: RB44]
Murray averaged 18.5 touches per game over his final 10 games last season, while working in a committee alongside RB Jerick McKinnon. That’s his absolute floor this week, while his ceiling reaches much higher with Dalvin Cook out and Mike Boone questionable and in a dream matchup. The Bills surrendered the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last year (28.4), and well, would you look at that, they’ve surrendered the second-most (38.5) this season as well. Favored by 16.5 points this week, he’s a must-play on FanDuel and a great play on DraftKings.
Alvin Kamara [DK: RB1, FD: RB2]
Kamara has seen terrific volume to start the season, currently leading all running backs in expected fantasy points per game (21.7). And now, this week, he draws an ideal matchup. Kamara totaled 194 receiving fantasy points in 2017, or the 14th-most by a running back ever. He’s probably the best receiving running back in the NFL, and now he gets to face the best matchup for a receiving running back. Since 2016, Atlanta has surrendered 13.6 receiving fantasy points to opposing running backs, which is +1.9 more than any other team. As of last week (when RB Christian McCaffrey caught 14 passes for 102 receiving yards against them), they’re also playing without two starters on defense: LB Deion Jones and S Keanu Neal. Atlanta saw a league-high 132 targets (to running backs) last season, and either Jones or Neal were the primary defender (in coverage) on 47 percent of those targets.
Melvin Gordon [DK: RB6, FD: RB3]
Gordon ranks third-best among running backs in expected fantasy points per game, but he’d easily rank first if we adjusted for the fact that he’s really only played six quarters of football thus far – he had just three touches last week after the Chargers went up 22 points at halftime. Excluding that, Gordon is basically averaging 14.0 carries, 12.7 targets, 155.3 yards, and two touchdowns per four quarters of play.
The majority of Gordon’s fantasy points have come as a receiver (72.9 percent) and that should bode well for him this week, as 7.0-point underdogs to the Rams. Capable receiving running backs generally benefit more from negative than positive game-script, but Gordon in particular benefited more than any other running back last year. The Rams have three cornerbacks who graded out top-20 a season ago, which typically helps funnel targets towards running backs and tight ends (like we saw with Oakland in Week 1). With TE Antonio Gates questionable and ILB Mark Barron doubtful, I fully expect the Chargers to run their offense through Gordon in Week 3.
Allen Robinson [DK: WR23, FD: WR24]
Through two weeks, Robinson ranks ninth among wide receivers in both targets (21) and target market share (30 percent). Arizona CB Patrick Peterson no longer shadows WR1s, which means Robinson projects to face Jamar Taylor and Budda Baker on at least two-thirds of his routes. Taylor and Baker both rank bottom-12 of 79-qualifying cornerbacks in yards allowed per snap in coverage. He’s one of my top values at the position, on a week where few wide receivers stand out.
Will Fuller [DK: WR14, FD: WR13]
In five games with Deshaun Watson, Fuller averages 21.8 fantasy points per game with outputs of 19.9, 20.2, 14.2, 29.5, and 25.3. With CB Eli Apple out this week, he’ll be running about two-thirds of his routes against B.W. Webb and Donte Deayon. Webb currently ranks as our 14th-worst-graded of 138 qualifying, while Deayon has played on only 106 career snaps. QB Deshaun Watson may finally have some time to throw in this contest. The Texans offense ranks worst in pressures allowed per dropback but the Giants defense ranks 10th worst in pressures generated per dropback (26.2 percent) and will still be without DE Olivier Vernon.
Zach Ertz [DK: TE1, FD: TE2]
Ertz appears expensive as either the highest- or second-highest-priced tight end on both sites, but I actually don’t think that’s true. Ertz averages 19.4 fantasy points per game across his last 10 healthy games with Carson Wentz under center. If over a full season, that would rank second-best all-time at the position. Among wide receivers, last year, that would have ranked third-best. For perspective, Ertz is the 12th-highest-priced receiver (wide receiver or tight end) on DraftKings and the 16th-highest-priced receiver on FanDuel this week.
Alshon Jeffery is still out, likely keeping target volume good for Ertz (he currently has seven targets more than any other tight end). WR Mike Wallace is also out, and the team signed and will start Jordan Matthews to take his place. Matthews has run 83 percent of his career routes from the slot, and per beat writers, will be pushing Nelson Agholor outside. Agholor was our single-worst-graded wide receiver in each of his first two seasons in the NFL, when playing predominantly outside, but ranked 33rd-best last year when moved to the slot (where he played in college). Given Agholor’s dreadful history when playing anywhere but the slot, this could be more good news for Ertz.
Eric Ebron [DK: TE12, FD: TE10]
Okay, this one is easy. Through two weeks, Ebron ranks seventh among tight ends in fantasy points, having recorded seven catches for 77 yards and two scores. That’s nearly 10 fantasy points more than Jack Doyle nine catches and 80 yards. Keep in mind, Doyle has seen six more targets (15 to nine) and has run a route on 91 percent of QB Andrew Luck’s dropbacks this year, compared to only 38 percent for Ebron. With Doyle out for Week 3, he’s a glaring value priced as only a low-end TE1.
Notes & Update:
Apologies if this week’s column is uncharacteristically light. I’ve been insanely sick the past three days. It’s been hard enough just to get out of bed, let alone string together coherent sentences. With that being said, even though I don’t have anywhere near my typical amount invested this week, here’s what I’m thinking:
Quarterback: Carson Wentz is a really strong play on FanDuel. I really like Jimmy Garoppolo IF Marquise Goodwin plays. I really like Cam Newton and Drew Brees as two quarterbacks with, essentially, wide receivers as running backs, so they’re soaking up almost all of their team’s points. Outside of that, I’m mostly sticking with Mahomes and Bortles (if Fournette is out). If Fournette is active, I’ll pivot elsewhere.
Running Back: When I’m paying up, I’ll be mostly focused on Melvin Gordon and Alvin Kamara. A little bit of Todd Gurley as well. When looking cheaper, I especially like Latavius Murray and Giovani Bernard. When Mixon missed time last year, Bernard averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game. Backup RB Mark Walton hasn’t played a single NFL snap. I like but don’t love Tevin Coleman. Corey Clement too is a very good play but I suspect he’ll be in more of a committee than most are suspecting. Kareem Hunt is way too cheap on DraftKings and offers leverage off of what should be a massively-owned Kansas City passing game. Outside of those more popular plays, I suspect Christian McCaffrey, Jordon Howard, Chris Thompson, and Dion Lewis are being slept on in great spots. Cincinnati has given up the second-most receiving yards to enemy running backs over the past two years. Arizona has a bottom-seven run defense, a bottom-two offense, and, as far as I can tell, there’s nearly zero threat of negative game-script for Howard in this contest. Thompson averages 16.9 fantasy points per game since the start of last season. Lewis has seen 15 carries and eight targets to Derrick Henry’s five carries and zero targets when Tennessee has been trailing. Underdogs by 9.5 this week, Tennessee should be trailing early and often.
Wide Receiver: Wide receiver is a mess this week. A confounding, extremely tight mess, where few players really stand out but many kind of stand up. Forgive me for not digging too deep here, but I like all of the following guys (in no order): Marquise Goodwin (if he plays), Julio Jones (historically cheap), Robert Woods (terrific volume, despite spending most of last week’s game against Patrick Peterson), Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson, all of the wide receivers in the Giants vs. Texans game (two often-pressured quarterbacks up against two of the worst defense lines / secondaries in the NFL), Emmanuel Sanders, Tyreek Hill (on FanDuel), and John Brown.
Tight End: Travis Kelce makes sense as a stacking option. Ricky Seals-Jones is really cheap with Larry Fitzgerald questionable. But really, I’m not going to get cute. I’ll be playing mostly Ertz on FanDuel and Ebron on DraftKings.