NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 4
Let’s just pretend last week never happened….
Here are my Week 4 main slate plays for DraftKings and FanDuel:
Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Update Added 9/29/2018
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees [DK: QB3, QB1]
Drew Brees is only $6,600 on DraftKings. That’s $100 off from the cheapest he’s been at any point over the past three years. If this were 2017, when he averaged only 17.5 DK fantasy points per game and 33.5 pass attempts per game, I’d say he’s appropriately priced. But this is 2018, and he’s averaging 31.9 DK fantasy points per game and 43.0 pass attempts per game. Or, really, not much different from the four years prior to 2017, when he averaged 23.5 DK fantasy points per game and 41.4 pass attempts per game.
What was the main difference between Drew Brees this year, last year, and every other year of his career? The quality of their defense. Last year the Saints ranked top-10 in points allowed per game, this year they rank dead-last, and in every other year of the past five years they’ve ranked bottom-five.
Brees also benefits from the absence of Mark Ingram, which means a lower likelihood of rushing touchdowns and a more pass-heavy approach from having what’s essentially a wide receiver (Alvin Kamara) as your only running back. CB Eli Apple and EDGE Olivier Vernon are out this week for the Giants, which further helps his cause. I’m also not worried about a potential shadow situation of Janoris Jenkins on Michael Thomas. Jenkins is struggling this year, ranking bottom-five of 43 qualifying cornerbacks in fantasy points allowed per route in coverage.
Ryan Fitzpatrick [DK: QB6, FD: QB8]
Ryan Fitzpatrick 101.4 fantasy points through Weeks 1-3 is the fourth-most by any quarterback through any three-week stretch ever. “Fitzpatrick isn’t good. He’s been a back-up most of his career.” “The Chicago Bears and Khalil Mack are LEGIT.” Blah, blah, blah. Whatever. Fitzpatrick is doing something utterly historic, he’s cheaply priced, and he’s going to be low-owned this week. I think that’s a major mistake. Khalil Mack is a concern, for sure, but I have faith in the GOAT OC Todd Monken to scheme around him and make this defense look far more pedestrian. You can stack Fitzpatrick with any of the wide receivers.
Other: My dude, Baker Mayfield against an Oakland Raiders defense that ranks last in pressures forced per dropback. Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton in game with massive shootout potential. Eli Manning against what’s probably the worst defense in the NFL.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara [DK: RB1, FD: RB1]
Kamara’s volume has been other-worldly this season, leading all players in expected fantasy points per game and totaling 8.2 expected fantasy points per game more than the next-closest running back. He currently ranks fourth among all players in targets, sixth in receiving expected fantasy points, and ninth in rushing expected fantasy points. Essentially, you’re getting a mid-range WR1 and a low-end RB1 in one player. Among all players, Kamara also ranks first in expected fantasy point market share (33.7 percent), second in actual fantasy points per game (30.3), and first in total opportunities inside the 10-yard-line (13). His usage has been so good, that despite being the most-expensive player on FanDuel, he’s still my top volume-based value play on the site.
Giovani Bernard [DK: RB9, FD: RB15]
Last season, Joe Mixon played on just six snaps from Weeks 14 through 16. In those three games, Bernard averaged 16.0 carries per game, 5.7 targets per game, and 20.7 fantasy points per game, while playing on 86 percent of the team’s snaps. Last week, with Mixon out, Bernard saw 12 carries, nine targets, and totaled 19.6 fantasy points. He played on 81 percent of the team’s snaps and saw 100 percent of the team’s running back touches. It’s common knowledge Bernard is a better pass-catcher than he is a runner, and that should come in handy against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has surrendered the most receptions to enemy running backs in each of the past four seasons. And, of course, now they’re on pace to blow past their 2017 total by 85 receptions, and they’re without their primary running back (coverage) defenders LB Deion Jones and S Keanu Neal. He’s a mid-range RB1 on volume and in a plus matchup, and yet, somehow, he’s only the 15th-highest-priced running back on FanDuel.
Chris Carson [DK: RB23, FD: RB15]
Carson finally took control of the Seattle backfield in Week 3. He played on 74 percent of the snaps, saw 32 of 35 carries (for 102 yards and a score), and earned two of the team’s three running back targets (for 22 yards). Given his success, relative to Rashaad Penny’s lowly 2.2 yards-per-carry average, I suspect this sort of usage will continue in Week 4. The matchup is strong as well. Seattle is favored by 3.0 points, they’ve been the most run-heavy (64 percent) team in the league when they’ve had a league, and Arizona has surrendered the most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this year. As only the 23rd-highest-priced running back on DraftKings, he’s a screaming value.
Sony Michel [DK: RB25, FD: RB26]
Michel totaled 14 carries and three targets last week with RB Rex Burkhead in the lineup. Now Burkhead is out, Jeremy Hill is still on I.R., and a run-heavy approach makes sense against a Miami defense that leads the league in opposing passer rating (65.6), while also leading in interceptions (seven) and touchdowns surrendered (two). Last year, Dion Lewis scored 31.3 fantasy points in the one game both Burkhead and Mike Gillislee were out. If New England comes close to their 27.5-point implied total, Michel is a good bet to crush his salary-based expectation.
Other: Ezekiel Elliott, Tevin Coleman, Marshawn Lynch, Dion Lewis, Aaron Jones
Wide Receivers
Jarvis Landry [DK: WR9, FD: WR12]
Among wide receivers, Landry ranks fifth in expected fantasy points per game (20.8), sixth in targets per game (10.7), ninth in air yards per game (126.3), and seventh in expected touchdowns per game (0.7). He’s now being used in a role far more valuable than the low-aDOT, low-upside role we’ve seen from him in the past – though pricing hasn’t yet caught up to this fact on FanDuel. Baker Mayfield’s ascension to starter should also be beneficial to Landry’s upside (as should the departure of Josh Gordon). Including the preseason, Landry has averaged one target every 2.9 routes with Mayfield. For perspective, that would lead the position this year. Landry’s efficiency hasn’t been great, relative to his immense workload, but I’m expecting an improvement here as well. Tyrod Taylor has been our third-worst-graded quarterback of 34 qualifying. Meanwhile, Mayfield had a near-perfect 146.6 passer rating when targeting slot wide receivers in 2017. The matchup is phenomenal as well, Oakland is giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers this year, and that’s where Landry has run 74 percent of his routes.
Sterling Shepard [DK: WR30, FD: WR29]
TE Evan Engram and WR Cody Latimer are out this week and Odell Beckham Jr. will have a tougher matchup in shadow coverage against CB Marshon Lattimore – our eighth-highest-graded cornerback last year. This should funnel targets to Shepard in a dream matchup against CBs Ken Crawley and P.J. Williams (Patrick Robinson is on I.R.). They’ve been targeted a combined 26 times through three weeks, surrendering 21 receptions, 431 yards, and six touchdowns. By any measure (total fantasy points, fantasy points per target) that’s the worst of any duo in the NFL.
Value Wide Receivers
There’s an inordinate amount of viable inexpensive wide receiver options this week. I’m looking at all of the following options (in no particular order):
— Kenny Golladay is the 36th-highest-priced main slate wide receiver on FanDuel this week, despite ranking 18th in expected fantasy points per game and 13th in actual fantasy points per game. Dallas has easily been the toughest matchup for slot wide receivers this season (only 10.6 fantasy points surrendered through three games), which means Golladay and Marvin Jones should steal some work away from the team leader in targets, Golden Tate…
— Over the past two weeks, Tyler Boyd ranks seventh among wide receivers in fantasy points and 28th in expected fantasy points. He’s run 82 percent of his routes from the slot this year, and Atlanta’s nickel cornerback Brian Poole ranks sixth-worst of 52 qualifying cornerbacks in fantasy points allowed per route in coverage. (Atlanta also surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers last year.)…
— Quincy Enunwa has led the Jets in targets for three straight weeks. He ranks fourth among all wide receivers in routes per target and ninth in target market share. Although the Jaguars are a fearsome defense, Enunwa’s individual matchup isn’t terribly prohibitive. Enunwa has run 72 percent of his routes from the slot this season. Jacksonville is one of only seven teams to surrender more fantasy points to slot wide receivers than outside wide receivers this year and their starting slot cornerback D.J. Hayden is unlikely to play for Week 4….
— Antonio Callaway dropped 18 fantasy points in Week 2 and then ranked seventh at the position in expected fantasy points (19.0) in Week 3. Like with Landry, Callaway has an incredibly strong rapport with Baker Mayfield…
— Speaking of strong rapport, Christian Kirk has easily been Josh Rosen’s favorite target this year. Including preseason, he’s been targeted once every 3.7 routes by QB Josh Rosen. That would rank top-10 among all wide receivers this year. After totaling 90 yards on eight targets last week, and Larry Fitzgerald unable to practice, he’s one of the top value plays on the slate…
— A sneakier option is Taylor Gabriel. Over the past two weeks, he ranks 18th at the position in expected fantasy points per game. He’s seen target volume climb each week (five to seven to 10) and has an especially soft matchup this week. Rookie WR Anthony Miller leads the team in slot routes but is out this week with a dislocated shoulder. Gabriel leads the team in slot targets with nine. Tampa Bay has given up 28.8 fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers, which is 25 percent more than the next-closest defense….
— Mike Williams ranks 54th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game and 24th in actual fantasy points per game. His salary is just about right in the middle of both on DraftKings, as the 38th highest-priced wide receiver on the site. Usage should be better this week, with Keenan Allen listed as a DNP in every practice thus far. He’s also a good bet to score a touchdown, with Vegas spotting the Chargers the highest implied total of the main slate (28.5)… Chris Godwin is the same price as Williams and has seen a little bit better volume and productivity, ranking 34th in expected- and 23rd in actual fantasy points per game. …
Other: Michael Thomas, Calvin Ridley
Tight Ends
Eric Ebron [DK: TE10, FD: TE7]
Last week, with Jack Doyle out, Ebron ranked first among tight ends and seventh among all receivers in expected fantasy points. In total, he saw 11 targets, including four red-zone targets, three end-zone targets, and one deep target – good for a team-high 19.7 expected fantasy points. Although the efficiency wasn’t there last week, maybe that’s a good thing, keeping salary and ownership depressed for Week 4. He’s easily my favorite tight end play of the slate, so long as Doyle is out.
Zach Ertz [DK: TE2, FD: TE2]
Rookie TE Dallas Goedert stole the show last week, but Ertz’s volume was better, recording double-digit targets for the third straight week. He’s not only dominating the position in volume – leading in targets by 11 and totaling 5.5 expected fantasy points per game more than the next-close – but would also rank eighth-best among all receivers. Ertz also averages 17.2 fantasy points per game over his last 16 full* (didn’t leave early with an injury) games with Carson Wentz under center. That would have ranked best among tight ends last year and fourth-best among wide receivers. With WR1 usage this year and high-end WR1 production over his last 16 games, he stands out as a value, being priced outside of the top-12 receivers on both sites.
If Alshon Jeffery is out, Goedert is also in play this week. He ran 27 routes last week – the same number as Rob Gronkowski and David Njoku. He saw seven targets – only four tight ends saw more. I’ve also had a man-crush on him since May. At a near-minimum price-tag on both sites, he’s a good play but not as strong of a play as Ebron or Ertz.
Other: Jared Cook, David Njoku
Final Update There really isn’t much need for an update this week. Chris Carson is now a game-time decision in a 4PM game. So, I’m pivoting off him on almost every lineup I had him. Randall Cobb got hurt in practice earlier this week. This makes Geronimo Allison a great play. No one is going to play him and he’s risky but I also like Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Really there’s a ton of great cheap WR plays this week. From reading this article it should be obvious who my lock button plays are.