NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 4
We are into the part of the season where injury and weather updates become increasingly important factors. While these are complicating, they also present an opportunity. Specific to Week 4, there are two players written up below with injury questions, and the effect of Hurricane Joaquin on player performance in Washington remains unknown. We will see depressed ownership rates as a result, but that alone doesn’t make them strong plays. Unfortunately there is no magic decision-making formula other than to have a good handle on our personal risk tolerance, and to stay on top of the news until kickoff. Hey, it’s not like we have anything better to do anyway.
On with the FanDuel tournament picks.
QB Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts, $9,100 (+$100 from Week 3)
Editor’s Note: Luck (shoulder) missed practice Friday and is currently considered questionable to play Sunday.
Buy when there’s blood in the streets, or in Andrew Luck’s mouth. Either one. Luck is the second-most expensive quarterback and just $100 cheaper than the sure-to-be-highly-owned Aaron Rodgers. Luck is the 14th-best fantasy quarterback and PFF’s 35th-graded passer through three weeks. He also is facing the 25th-ranked pass coverage of the Jaguars (-10.2), and the Colts have the week’s highest implied total.
Luck’s Accuracy Percentage (45.9) while under pressure ranks 30th and he has a 30.2 quarterback rating without a clean pocket. Opponents have blitzed him on a whopping 45.3 percent of his dropbacks, and he’s gotten no help from the Colts pass blocking (-16.9; 28th-“best”). Luckily, the Jaguars are not a heavy blitzing defense and have only brought extra rushers 13.5 percent of the time this season.
Jacksonville solved what ailed Luck early last year when he put up 370 yards and four touchdowns (+4.8 passing grade), one week after earning his worst grade of the season (-2.4). T.Y. Hilton is healthier, Donte Moncrief has emerged, and both have plus matchups with sub-par cornerbacks. As home favorites in a “get right” game, after an emotional Week 3 win, the Colts won’t take their foot off the gas until they feel good about themselves again. That should take a lot of scoring to accomplish.
QB Colin Kaepernick – San Francisco 49ers, $7,500 (-$400)
Recommending the quarterback who received the worst passing game mark of the previous week (-9.0), against a team that contributed to the second-worst grade of Week 3 (Alex Smith; -7.1) is toeing that line between “contrarian” and “stupid.” But a week after two running backs playing in the same game won millions of dollars, and two weeks after a nine-route-running Travis Benjamin did the same, betting on Kaepernick feels tame.
With San Francisco a nearly double-digit home underdog, the game script sets up to put the ball in Kaepernick’s hands. The Packers, who rank second in no-huddle rate (46 percent), should score quickly against San Francisco’s 29th-ranked pass coverage. It’s dangerous to bank on garbage time production, but Kaepernick already pulled it off once this year in Pittsburgh, and we know this is a high-risk play.
The Packers allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks in 2014, and they already lead the league this year (47.3 yards per game). Kaepernick has a history of running circles around the Packers, albeit back in 2012 and 2013. In two games against Green Bay, he piled up 675 passing yards and five touchdowns, on top of 200 rushing yards and two more scores. At least it’s easy for him to visualize having success against the Packers.
RB Matt Forte – Chicago Bears, $8,300 (-$100)
Chicago may be a home underdog, but Forte has a matchup advantage in a week where few top running backs stand out. Oakland’s run defense grades seventh-worst (-7.7), they’re allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs, and – especially relevant for Forte – they surrender 7.7 receptions per game to running backs. All of their non-Khalil Mack linebackers grade negatively in coverage.
The Bears went no-huddle on 33 percent of their plays during their two home games. Forte, in particular, thrived in the hurry-up in Week 1. On seven attempts, he averaged 6.2 more yards per carry than when they huddled, and he caught three passes. Especially if Chicago is trailing, expect them to hit the Raiders with tempo, against which they struggled during the Bengals’ visit to Oakland.
As we know, negative game script is not an issue for Forte’s production. Entering Week 4, he trails only Jamaal Charles in running back snaps, is tied for the league lead in rushing attempts, and his 14 targets rank 10th among running backs despite seeing just two against the Seahawks. There will be a lot of action on the Raiders and Martellus Bennett, but expect Forte to again quietly post a strong day.
RB Latavius Murray – Oakland Raiders, $7,500 (+$500)
We are going to eat some chalk on Murray. But the Bears are yet to give up a monster fantasy day to a running back, and the fact that he’s a Raider on the road may keep his ownership level to a dull roar. Chicago is better known for pathetic pass defense, making Amari Cooper and company attractive plays. Unless someone is stacking the entire Oakland offense, Murray should be used more often in cash lineups than tournaments.
The Bears, who are allowing the sixth-most yards per carry (4.7), just allowed Seahawks rookie Thomas Rawls to average 6.5 yards on 16 handoffs. Seattle ranks 31st in run-blocking (-20.7), which is a far cry from Oakland’s surprising fifth-place standing (+0.4). The Raiders lead the NFL with a 4.8 yards-per-carry average, and Murray’s rushing grade of +3.9 ranks third of 61 qualifying running backs.
Murray just tore up a Cleveland “3-4” defense with superior personnel to Chicago’s. The only members of the Bears’ front seven with comparably better run defense grades to their Browns counterparts are their outside linebackers, and the Bears just traded one. Oakland is a field goal favorite, haven’t thrown very much down in the red zone, and duel-threat Murray will be involved throughout the game.
RB Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers, $6,300 (-$200)
Stewart has been a frustration. Hopefully that, along with injury concerns, will take the edge off of his ownership, despite an exploitable matchup. The Panthers have not run-blocked well (-11.4; 21st), and although Stewart hasn’t matched his second-best Elusive Rating from 2014, he is still tied for second in forced missed tackles on handoffs (12). His yards-per-carry and rushing grade have inched up each week as well.
Stewart has faced PFF’s fourth and eighth-ranked run defenses, along with the Jaguars – who were holding running backs to 2.7 yards per carry until the Patriots steamrolled them. The Buccaneers are allowing the most rushing yards (137) and third-most touchdowns (1.3) to running backs on a per-game basis. They grade 30th in run defense (-17.8), and were just bludgeoned for 139 yards and a score by Alfred Blue. He had been averaging 3.4 yards per carry, one year removed from a 3.1 mark.
The Panthers, who have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards, are a field goal favorite against a team that is surrendering the eighth-most plays, has trouble running (3.6 yards per carry; 27th), grades dead last in run blocking (-40.8), and will be forced to throw against Carolina’s strength (+7.6 pass coverage grade; third-best). Stewart has underwhelmed fantasy owners, but is in a great redemption spot.
RB Lance Dunbar – Dallas Cowboys, $5,600 (+$700)
Dunbar’s 82 snaps rank just behind Joseph Randle’s 87 for the most among Cowboys running backs, and his 69 pass routes are the fourth-most on the team. In their first full game without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, Dallas had Brandon Weeden throw 10 balls in Dunbar’s direction, and he completed them all for 100 yards. Dunbar’s 22 targets would rank 28th on the wide receiver list, and he has four more than the next most-targeted running back.
While we try to read the tea leaves on what’s happening with Christine Michael, or if any coaches noticed Randle gained two yards on his final 11 carries last week, Dunbar continues to be the most stable part of Dallas’ backfield. He will need to be again, as the Cowboys try to nurse Weeden through another low-risk game plan that could hinge on the Saints awful coverage linebackers.
No Saints linebacker or safety has a positive coverage grade, with four starters grading deeply in the red. New Orleans has surrendered the 11th-most receiving yards to running backs, and they have not faced one of Dunbar’s caliber (+5.1 passing game grade; 1st). New Orleans’ run defense ranks fourth-best (+15.3), and the underdog Cowboys should need to throw. Dunbar, who has caught 95.5 percent of his targets, is going to be busy again.
WR DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans, $7,900 (+$100)
Houston’s league-leading pace and plays-per-game rate (80.3) has Ryan Mallett has averaging 48 attempts through two starts. That ranks higher than Tom Brady’s second-place 44.3 per-game mark. While Mallett’s completion percentage of 58 ranks down in Johnny Manziel territory, the Texans are producing enough volume for Hopkins to tie for the third-most targets among wideouts (39).
Houston is nearly a touchdown underdog in Atlanta and will again be throwing often. The Falcons’ pass rush ranks 22nd (-1.5), which is good news for Mallett. He has only completed seven of his 26 pressured throws, with an interception. Atlanta’s pass coverage is even worse (-13.0; 27th). Cornerback Desmond Trufant is a stud, but opponents simply avoid him (17.7 snaps per target; second-most).
Luckily Trufant stays on the left side 96 percent of the time, and Hopkins lines up all over. With the Falcons playing sides, having Hopkins find Robert Alford (-3.4 coverage grade; 85th) will be easy. The last time he faced a non-Weeden offense, Alford allowed seven catches for 128 yards and two touchdowns to the Giants. Based on Hopkins’ usual volume, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him match that.
WR Brandon Marshall – New York Jets, $7,800 (+$400)
The bad news from last week was Marshall posted his worst PFF passing game grade since Week 9 of 2008, when he played for the Broncos (-3.5). The good news is he still caught 10 balls, for 109 yards and a touchdown. He was the clear focal point of the offense, soaking up 14 targets. It bodes well that the Eagles defense knew this, sold out to stop him, and still couldn’t prevent Marshall.
Marshall will match up most often with Jamar Taylor, whose coverage grade ranks 85th out of 95 qualifying cornerbacks (-4.1). But with the Jets receiving corps banged up, and the absence of anything resembling a viable pass-catching tight end, Marshall will continue to move around. His matchup in the slot against the 5-foot-9 Brice McCain is especially juicy. The Jet has six inches and 35 pounds on PFF’s 81st-ranked coverage cornerback.
Expect New York to have success on the ground against a Dolphins defense that ranks eighth-worst against the run (-6.3), further loosening up their 21st-graded pass coverage (-7.7) for Marshall. If you are playing the early slate on Sunday, and you know you will want some action with your coffee, Marshall will start the day off on the right foot.
WR Allen Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,500 (-$100)
Robinson had a quiet Week 3, so most casual fans won’t be on him. Colts shutdown cornerback Vontae Davis is rumored to be on him all game, so most well-researched DFS’ers won’t be on Robinson either. The Jaguars ran just 55 plays against the Patriots last week, and Robinson still had nine targets. While Davis is a certified stud, he has been beaten recently.
Who knows whether or not Davis allowing eight of the last 13 targets in his coverage to be completed, for 108 yards and a pair of touchdowns, has anything to do with his Week 2 concussion? Perhaps he is gutting it out during a crucial stretch for the banged-up Colts secondary. Maybe he’s fine. But we saw how quickly Robinson can explode when he caught five of eight targets for 145 yards and two scores in less than a half against the Dolphins.
Due to the potential shadow treatment, the sharp pivot in a game with one of Week 4’s highest projected point totals will be to Allen Hurns. He is cheaper and scored for owners who used similar logic last week, despite seeing less than half of Robinson’s targets. But this week, and especially if Davis does not shadow for whatever reason, the better Jaguars wideout is our best bet.
WR Robert Woods – Buffalo Bills, $5,400 (+$100)
Woods was running ahead of Percy Harvin for much of training camp, out-snapped him by one last week, and has been a nearly full-time player over the last two games. Playing time won’t be an issue for Woods on Sunday with Sammy Watkins sidelined. Woods’ target count has risen each game, he saw a season-high five looks in Week 3, and the trend is a good bet to continue against the Giants.
New York has struggled to defend the middle of the field due to awful coverage linebackers and a brutal safety situation. Compounding the issue is the ineptitude of slot cornerback Trumaine McBride, whose coverage grade (-3.0) ranks 81st out of 100 qualifying corners. Woods has run 73.5 percent of his routes out of the slot and has a clear matchup advantage, as well as three inches, on McBride.
The Giants ninth-ranked run defense has been stout (+10.3), and they are allowing the fifth-lowest yards-per-carry rate (3.4). Buffalo won’t throw 50 times, but enough balls will be in the air for fantasy goodness. Woods will be the fifth-highest-owned Buffalo Bill this weekend, after Karlos Williams, Tyrod Taylor, Charles Clay, and Harvin. All are solid plays, but Woods makes for an interesting pivot off of Harvin in one of Week 4’s higher projected total games.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs, $6,400 (No Price Change)
Kelce hit double-digit targets for the first time in his career, albeit in a blowout. It was encouraging to see the Chiefs target Kelce five times in the third quarter, including the first three plays after halftime. Perhaps the light bulb went on. Even if it didn’t, Kansas City will need him against a Bengals team that’s scored the seventh-most points, boasts a top-six run defense, and has allowed the sixth-fewest yards to wideouts this season. They are also vulnerable against the pass in the middle of the field.
Cincinnati’s linebackers are poor in coverage, and both safeties sport negative grades in that department. The bottom of PFF’s Tackling Efficiency rankings are littered with Bengals linebackers and safeties. They also struggle to cover running backs, and focusing on Jamaal Charles will open up gaping chasms for Kelce to live in. Despite the fact that they haven’t been tested by a player of Kelce’s caliber, tight ends have still been targeted the sixth-most against them on a per-game basis, and the Bengals rank in the top-third in yards surrendered to the position.
TE Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals, $5,700 (-$200)
Eifert’s two-target, zero-catch, one (overturned) touchdown effort was disappointing – but it presents an opportunity. Most people will pay up (Jimmy Graham at $6,600 or Travis Kelce at $6,300), pay down (Charles Clay at $5,200 or Coby Fleener at $4,900), or grab Jordan Reed ($5,700), instead of targeting the fantasy tight end who ranked second only to Rob Gronkowski heading into Week 3. That works well, considering that if Eifert was awarded his should-have-been-touchdown, he’d be far higher owned.
The Chiefs have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, further dampening interest in Eifert. Of course, they’ve been “tested” by the likes of Garrett Graham, the ghost of Owen Daniels, and Richard Rodgers. Eifert, as the Bengals’ first two games and his 15 targets made clear, is a much more integral part of his offense. His two-week passing game grade (+3.9) ranked behind only Gronkowski and Kelce, and he scored three times. A quiet game against the Ravens, who allow the fewest fantasy points to tight ends, has created an exploitable situation.