NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 5
This week feels weird. There’s a lot of similarly priced players seeing similarly good volume and drawing similarly soft matchups. Basically, it feels like a Mass Multi-Entry week. That’s how I’ll be attacking tournaments this week, so that’s how I’ll be writing this article.
Here are my Week 5 main slate plays for DraftKings and FanDuel:
Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger [FD: QB2, DK: QB1] / Matt Ryan [FD: QB5, DK: QB3]
Since 2014, no quarterback averages more than Roethlisberger’s 23.5 fantasy points per game at home. Ryan, meanwhile, has 108.9 fantasy points through the first four weeks of the season — which ranks fourth-most all-time (Mahomes ranks second). Both defenses rank bottom-five in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, bottom-seven in fantasy points per dropback allowed, and bottom-10 in opposing passer rating. Both teams rank top-10 in total plays per game and total pass attempts per game. Both teams rank top-six in total passing yards and bottom-eight in passing yards allowed. Atlanta’s defense is a little worse on the whole, ranking third-worst in points allowed per drive, while Pittsburgh’s defense is more of a pass-funnel, ranking sixth-best in yards per carry allowed. Though, the Steelers are more of a pass funnel offense, totaling under 35 rushing yards in two of their past three games. With a close point spread (3.0) and the highest over/under on the slate by 5.5-points, implying a pass-heavy shootout, this is obviously the matchup everyone will want to game stack, and it’s not without good reason.
Kirk Cousins [FD: QB8, DK: QB9] / Carson Wentz [FD: QB10, DK: QB11]
If you’re looking for a sneakier shootout on this slate, I like the chances this game smashes its over/under and both quarterbacks return value. Of the teams available on this slate, Philadelphia ranks third in plays per game while Minnesota ranks sixth. Minnesota ranks worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, while Philadelphia ranks fourth-worst. 81 percent of Philadelphia’s yardage allowed has been via the pass (most) while that number sits at 73 percent for the Vikings (fifth-most). Indeed, running the ball makes little sense against either defense. Over the past two seasons, both defenses rank top-five in rushing yards allowed, rushing touchdowns allowed, and yards per carry allowed. Wentz has the slightly better matchup, against a Vikings defense sans Everson Griffen and Trae Waynes. Minnesota also ranks third-worst in fantasy points allowed per dropback and fourth-worst in opposing passer rating. That said, Cousins has been lights-out, ranking fourth at the position in total fantasy points, and a more pass-heavy approach especially makes sense for him given the uncertainty surrounding Dalvin Cook’s status.
Russell Wilson [FD: QB12, DK: QB19]
Wilson is $5,100 on DraftKings, which makes him more than $1,800 cheaper than his 2017 average salary. Of course, he hasn’t played nearly as well, but he does have Doug Baldwin back, and his lack of production has had more to do with low volume than poor efficiency. Through two wins and two one-score losses, Wilson ranks just 22nd in pass attempts and 15th in rushing attempts, after ranking sixth and second last year. Seattle will have little choice but to abandon the running game early this week, without Earl Thomas, and up against the NFL’s best offense. Los Angeles’ defense is also no longer as imposing with Aqib Talib out and Marcus Peters hobbled.
Blake Bortles [FD: QB15, DK: QB14]
Over the past two seasons, Bortles averages 4.7 more fantasy points, 74.2 more total yards, and 1.63 more red zone attempts per game in games Fournette was inactive. Over his last 10 games, Bortles actually leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points and averages 20.1. He also has an ideal matchup this week, against a Kansas City defense that ranks second-worst in both total passing yards allowed and points allowed per drive (3.03).
Other: Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes
Running Backs
Todd Gurley [FD: RB1, DK: RB1]
Gurley averages 32.5 fantasy points per game across his last seven games. He’s scored at least 20.0 in each of his last eight games. The last time he faced Seattle, he scored 45.0. Now, the Rams are 7.0-point favorites and the Seahawks are now without S Earl Thomas and LB Mychal Kendricks. Over the past two seasons, Gurley comprises 34 percent of his team’s total yardage and 42 percent of their total offensive touchdowns. Both numbers easily lead the running back position. If the Rams hit their implied point total, then Gurley is going to be worth owning, and the potential for a blowout (in their favor) hurting his prospects is not a concern.
Melvin Gordon [FD: RB2, DK: RB2]
Among all running backs, Gordon ranks third in fantasy points per game (25.4) and fourth in expected fantasy points per game (19.5) Both numbers might look a little better too if not for a Week 2 blowout against the Bills where Gordon only touched the ball three times in the second half. That shouldn’t be a concern this week against the Raiders. The Chargers are favored by 5.0, so the spread isn’t out of hand, though their implied point total is high at 28.75 (tied with the Rams for the second-highest of the slate). The matchup looks good as well, with the Raiders ranking second-worst in yards per carry allowed (5.69).
Christian McCaffrey [FD: RB3, DK: RB4]
McCaffrey ranks third among all running backs in expected fantasy points per game (20.7) and second among all players in expected fantasy point market share (29.2 percent) – and that’s including Cam Newton’s goal-line vultures. McCaffrey averages 5.0 fantasy points per game and 2.1 more targets per game without Olsen in the lineup, and it looks like this will be the last week that stat will work towards his favor. WR Devin Funchess is the No. 2 option in the passing game, but he’ll likely be held in check by CB Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins is likely to shadow this week and he shadowed and held Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins to their lowest fantasy outputs of the season over the past two weeks. That should only mean more usage for McCaffrey.
T.J. Yeldon [FD: RB14, DK: RB15]
Yeldon averages 12.3 carries per game, 4.5 targets per game, and 15.8 fantasy points per game. That’s despite Leonard Fournette still playing in a combined four quarters in Weeks 1 and 4. That’s despite Yeldon playing hurt in Weeks 2 and 3. For comparison, Corey Grant averages only 3.0 carries and 3.3 targets per game. In a dream matchup, with Fournette confirmed out, Yeldon is great play. The Chiefs are giving up the most fantasy points per game to running backs and rank third-worst in yards per carry allowed (5.54) while also giving up the most receiving yards to enemy running backs (385).
Joe Mixon [FD: RB9, DK: RB7] (Added During Update)
In Week 1, Mixon played on 79% of the snaps, drawing 17 carries, seven targets, and totaling 56% of the team’s touches. In Week 2, he totaled 21 carries and one target, despite exiting early due to injury. Now, he appears locked into a massive workload with Giovani Bernard out with a sprained MCL. Including the two weeks Mixon missed, Cincinnati’s top rusher is averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game, or what would rank seventh-most. The matchup this week appears soft as well, with Miami ranking bottom-six in both rushing and receiving fantasy points per game allowed to opposing running backs. He’s a top play this week.
Other: Javorius Allen (if Alex Collins is out), David Johnson, Aaron Jones
Wide Receivers
High-Priced Options
The hardest part about this slate is picking which high-priced wide receivers you want to play. Adam Thielen leads all wide receivers in expected fantasy points, while Stefon Diggs ranks 10th. Thielen is the better value relative to usage but Diggs has the better matchup this week. The Eagles are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers, which is where Diggs runs 76 percent of his routes (only 34 percent for Thielen)… After Thielen is Antonio Brown followed by JuJu Smith-Schuster. Both are tremendous plays but Smith-Schuster is the better value and has the better matchup. In each of the past three seasons, Atlanta has ranked bottom-five in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot wide receivers… Given the matchup and the over/under, this is a potential eruption spot for Julio Jones, who ranks fifth in expected fantasy points. Pittsburgh has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing left wide receivers, which is where Jones runs 52 percent of his routes… Immediately after him is Jarvis Landry, my top positive regression candidate through four weeks (Corey Davis was my top positive regression candidate through three weeks). He’s a little banged up and doesn’t have the ceiling some of the other guys do, but the Ravens rank third-worst in fantasy points per game allowed to slot wide receivers…
John Brown [FD: WR32, DK: WR22]
Brown is only the 32nd-highest-priced wide receiver on FanDuel, which makes little sense to me. Among wide receivers, over the past three weeks, he ranks ninth in expected fantasy points per game and 17th in actual fantasy points per game. He ranks just 33rd in targets per game (7.0) but ranks 11th in expected touchdowns per game (0.58), second in yards in air per game (176.5), and first in deep targets per game (4.0, 1.0 more than next-closest). Brown, with 4.34-speed, appears to be filling in nicely as the team’s deep threat. That’s something the team drafted Breshad Perriman to be but have lacked since Torrey Smith finished as a WR3 or better in four consecutive seasons 2011-2014. All of the above makes him an ideal tournament option and especially so on FanDuel, given scoring. He’ll also get to run over half of his routes against E.J. Gaines and T.J. Carrie this week. Carrie has surrendered the second-most plays of 30 or more yards (10) since 2015. Gaines was historically bad in 2016 and would be just a bench player for the Browns if not for an injury to Terrance Mitchell.
Marvin Jones [FD: WR21, DK: WR36]
Jones’ DraftKings price-tag makes just as little sense as Brown’s price-tag on FanDuel. Jones’ target totals have been underwhelming to start the year (9, 6, 7, and 6) but, while the quantity of these targets was low, the quality was great. Despite ranking 33rd among wide receivers in targets per game (7.0), he ranks seventh in yards in air per game (120.0), seventh in deep targets per game (2.0), second in targets inside the 10-yard line per game (1.0), and first in end-zone targets per game (2.25). This isn’t the matchup to sleep on him either, given Jones’ history against Green Bay. Since 2016, he averages 24.7 fantasy points per game in his last four games against Green Bay.
Tyler Boyd [FD: WR28, DK: WR21]
Over the past three weeks, among wide receivers, Boyd ranks eighth in targets (31), 14th in expected fantasy points (13.1), and fifth in total fantasy points (67.3). This week he draws a Miami defense that has surrendered the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers. While that doesn’t seem other-worldly, it is the best place to attack Miami’s secondary, and especially with Tyler Eifert out and A.J. Green likely to be shadowed by Xavien Howard (who shut down Amari Cooper in Week 3). He’s a terrific value on both sites.
Other: Taywan Taylor, Mike Williams, Marquez Valdez Scantling (depending on injuries)
Tight End
Zach Ertz [DK: TE1, FD: TE2]
Ertz is seeing ridiculous volume this year, ranking fourth among all receivers in targets per game (11.5) and first among tight ends (by 3.0 targets per game). Only six tight ends have even half as many targets as Ertz does. In terms of expected fantasy points per game, he leads all tight ends (by 3.6) and ranks seventh among all receivers. This makes him worth his lofty salary for two reasons. 1) He’s still actually quite cheap, as only the 13th-highest-priced receiver on FanDuel and the 15th-highest-priced receiver on DraftKings. 2) I like the positional advantage you’re getting. Rob Gronkowski is off of the main slate and everyone else you’d want to play is probably hurt. The matchup is fairly soft this week as well, considering Minnesota has already surrendered two 90-plus yard games to tight ends. Finally, to re-use a statistic from last week: Ertz averages 17.5 fantasy points per game across his last 17 healthy games with Carson Wentz under center. This would have led the position last year by 1.8.
Travis Kelce [DK: TE2, FD: TE1]
As much as I like Ertz, Kelce’s value is hard to ignore on DraftKings. He’s $500 cheaper than his average salary last year, despite Kansas City’s passing attack averaging 40.8 more passing yards per game and a staggering 1.9 more passing touchdowns per game than last year. Kelce is seeing better volume this year as well, averaging 9.5 targets per game (as opposed to 8.1 last year) and a 27.5 percent target market share (as opposed to 22.5 percent last year). While the matchup, against the Jaguars, isn’t good, it’s not terrible. Since Week 1 of last year, 22 percent of Jacksonville’s receiving fantasy points allowed has gone to tight ends, which ranks 12th-most.
Jared Cook [DK: TE5, FD: TE6]
Cook just finished off what was one of the easiest four-week runs of a schedule I’ve ever seen. That has undoubtedly inflated his numbers, but still, if his volume sticks, he’s a strong value. He ranks second at the position in targets per game (18.5), second in expected fantasy points per game (16.0), and first in expected touchdowns per game (0.70). His matchup this week is probably a tough one, however. Though the Chargers gave up a 6-125-1 line to George Kittle last week, prior to that, they were arguably the league’s toughest tight end matchup dating back to Week 1 of last season.
Vance McDonald [DK: TE9, FD: TE16]
McDonald is a glaring value on FanDuel and hard to ignore, despite not seeing a massive workload. He’s seen exactly five targets in each of his three games, while running a route on only 46 percent, 63 percent, and 66 percent of Roethlisberger’s dropbacks over this stretch. That’s fine, he’s still way too cheap given recent production and Pittsburgh’s implied point total.
Other: Nick Vannett, Jimmy Graham
UPDATE: Not much of an update this week. Stay on top of news on Sunday morning. MVS, Jimmy Graham, and Aaron Jones may all be deserving of upgrades depending on which receivers are out for Green Bay. I added a blurb on Joe Mixon up above. That’s about it. I also did a podcast today here where I walked the slate, if you’re interested. There were some good points made in the comments section below so make sure you check those out as well.