NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 9
My week was mostly consumed by continually adjusting rankings, editing articles, and writing reaction pieces after a few major trades, one major injury, and one player miraculously coming back from the suspension dead. In light of this I’ll keep the introduction short and focus on my favorite plays of the slate.
I did, however, want to give an overdue shout-out to RotoGrinders’ own JMToWin. He’s had a profound impact on my DFS and fantasy writing career since I first started in this field. Also, just on a very base level, his writing and analysis is always so humblingly (is this not a word?) good, that it pressures me to always write this article as best as I can. Thanks to JM for being so good at what he does that it triggers an insecurity in myself that forces me to be better.
Anyway, here’s how I’m approaching this slate:
Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All references to team fantasy points allowed over expectation are based on this chart.
Note 3: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Quarterbacks
Like in most weeks, when selecting my preferred DFS quarterback(s), I typically lean to whichever quarterback’s stacking options I most prefer from a game theory perspective. This week, it’s Alex Smith with a lot of (borderline too many?) stacking options to like.
Alex Smith (DK: QB5, FD: QB6) – Statistically, Alex Smith is playing the best football of any quarterback this season, and is on a truly historic pace. Among all 1,246 instances of a quarterback attempting at least 250 passes in a single season since 1970, Smith’s 2017 season ranks fifth in adjusted yards per attempt (9.7) and sixth in passer rating (115.4). Per FanShare Sports, he’s likely to come in lower-owned than Dak Prescott, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson (though I like all three as well). Teams are passing on Dallas at the third-highest rate in the league (63 percent), and they rank 10th-worst in both opposing passer rating (94.6) and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over expectation. The latter metric would have looked even worse if not for Dallas facing Eli Manning in Week 1 without Odell Beckham Jr. and Kirk Cousins in Week 8 without three of his starting offensive lineman. In the highest game total of the week in what could be a close high-scoring shootout (spread within +/- 3.0 points), Smith is going to be my highest-owned quarterback of the week and I pray Prescott doesn’t ruin my week by vulturing touchdowns from Dez Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott on the ground.
Stacking Options: I won’t have a single Smith lineup without one of Elliott or Bryant. I’m also especially high on Travis Kelce. Shoutout to DVOA for getting this one right. Dallas is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends over the past two seasons. While they look much better this season (in fantasy points allowed), they haven’t faced (m)any respectable tight ends. Jordan Reed played only 21 snaps before exiting with an injury in Week 8. Evan Engram wasn’t up to his typical usage in Week 1. Outside of that, the “best” tight end they faced was A.J. Derby who ranks 25th at the position in fantasy points per game. I will also have plenty of exposure to Kareem Hunt to hedge my bet on Smith, on many of my non-Smith lineups. He still tops my running back rankings this week, despite ownership dwindling due to a lack of touchdowns in recent weeks. Dallas also ranks sixth-worst against expectation to opposing wide receivers, and Tyreek Hill and Demarcus Robinson should draw a surplus of targets with Albert Wilson and Chris Conley both out. The last three weeks, Robinson has target totals of four, seven, and one (Denver) with Conley out of the lineup. (Though he has already played 90 percent of the team’s snaps over this stretch.) Hill averages 21.7 receiving fantasy points per game when seeing at least eight targets, but only 8.4 in all other games.
Running Backs
Todd Gurley (DK: RB5, FD: RB1) – Gurley leads all players available on this slate in both fantasy points per game (23.9) and expected fantasy points per game (19.4). Gurley makes for a fantastic pairing with Los Angeles’ defense, considering they rank first in pressures per dropback and sixth in opposing passer rating, and the Giants will be without starting offensive linemen Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg. The Rams are far more susceptible on the ground, but luckily for them, the Giants haven’t had a ground game since Ahmad Bradshaw’s lower-body was still made up of mostly human parts. The Giants, meanwhile, are still without two of their top-three targeted pass-catchers in Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall. On defense, the Giants have allowed the following teams to post their highest or second-highest rushing total games of the season against them: Detroit, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and the Los Angeles Chargers. The only teams that aren’t included are the Denver Broncos (who lost 23 to 10), and the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks who both totaled over 100 rushing yards against them. In what should be a blowout, I’m not concerned this caps Gurley’s upside. Even in a 33-0 rout in their last game, Gurley still saw eight targets. Even in a 37-point victory in Week 1, he still saw six targets.
Adrian Peterson (DK: RB16, FD: RB11) – The Cardinals, coming off of their bye, will be starting back-up quarterback Drew Stanton this week. In Stanton’s lone start last season (against San Francisco), the team carried the ball 35 times while passing only 28 times. When asked of the team’s gameplan against San Francisco this week, Cardinals offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin replied, “Feed the beast (Peterson). It’s like an old stove. The more wood you put in it, the hotter it gets. We’ve just got to make sure we feed him the ball so he can get comfortable.” Head coach Bruce Arians also promised more work for Peterson as a pass-catcher. I’m somewhat skeptical, though Andre Ellington is still questionable and Peterson did see four targets last week. That would be huge for his fantasy potential, however, considering San Francisco is allowing the most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (16.1). In general, this is probably the best single matchup for any player this week. For the third consecutive season, the 49ers are allowing the most rushing plays per game to their opponents. Over the past two seasons, they’re allowing more fantasy points per game to lead backs than Ezekiel Elliott has averaged over this stretch. As 2.5-point favorites despite the quarterback change, this call is about as easy as it gets. He’s also worth stacking with Arizona’s defense, though there are plenty of defenses to like on this slate.
Christian McCaffrey (DK: RB8, FD: RB21) – In Week 3, when Kelvin Benjamin played only seven snaps, McCaffrey saw 11 targets. With Benjamin (19.9 percent target market share) now out of the picture, this could mean even more targets for McCaffrey, who already ranks eighth among all players in target market share and 14th in expected fantasy points per game (16.3). It comes at a great time as well. McCaffrey draws a dream matchup this week against an Atlanta Falcons defense that, over the past two regular seasons (not even including the near-Super-Bowl-MVP-winning-performance of James White against them), are allowing the most receiving fantasy points per game (14.6) to opposing running backs. Atlanta is also allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to receivers on short passes and passes behind the line of scrimmage this year (37.0), which is where McCaffrey has scored 90 percent of his fantasy points this season. McCaffrey is currently my No. 10 running back in half-point-PPR rankings, but is the 21st-highest-priced running back on FanDuel. Devin Funchess is a great play this week in his own right for many of the same reasons (though he will finally start to draw CB1s with Benjamin out and Atlanta’s Desmond Trufant is our 23rd-highest-graded cornerback this year), but, come on, I’ve waited months for Dairy Sanders Week.
Wide Receivers
Dez Bryant (DK: WR11, FD: WR8) – Bryant ranks fifth among all receivers in expected fantasy points per game, fifth in target market share, and fourth in air yardage market share. He also ranks first among all wide receivers in end-zone targets and targets inside the 5-, 10-, and 20-yard lines per game. Efficiency has been poor, but loyal readers know exactly why this has been the case. He’s the league’s most “ cornerback-sensitive ” wide receiver and faced a brutal schedule up until last week. He has a much softer draw in Week 9, mostly against second and third-string cornerbacks Kenneth Acker and Steven Nelson. While Marcus Peters is very good, Bryant will only face him about a quarter of the time, and that number could be lower if Dallas decides to get creative (which they should and have done in the past). Bryant lines up from the left on 47 percent of his routes (Acker’s side of the field), and the Chiefs are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing left wide receivers, after allowing the second-most last season. The Chiefs are also allowing the most fantasy points per game to receivers on intermediate and deep throws. This bodes especially well for Bryant who leads his team in average depth of target with 12.0, while (believe it or not) Cole Beasley ranks second with only 8.9. As only the 11th-highest-priced wide receiver on DraftKings, he’s rightfully the chalk this week, even with Elliott active, in a high-scoring game where the Chiefs should keep things close.
Michael Thomas (DK: WR5, FD: WR9) – Thomas runs 48 percent of his routes from the left of Drew Brees, and should spend the majority of his day facing off against Robert McClain. The Buccaneers are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers who line up to their quarterbacks left, and McClain, specifically, ranks bottom-15 in PFF coverage grade and fantasy points allowed per target. Tampa Bay’s highest-graded cornerback both this season and last (Brent Grimes) is out for Week 9. Tampa Bay is allowing, by far, the most fantasy points per game over expectation to wide receivers, and the most, specifically, to WR1s. Tampa Bay is also allowing the most fantasy points per game of any team to opposing slot wide receivers, and Sean Payton has done a good job of getting Thomas looks there, as Thomas leads the team in slot targets with 17. At surface level, Thomas’ volume looks okay, averaging 8.1 targets per game in non-Darius-Slay-shadow games. Brees hasn’t really felt the need to keep his foot on the gas like he has in recent years, thanks to a now respectable defense, but if Brees is forced to throw, Thomas is the most-likely recipient, ranking seventh in expected receiving fantasy point market share. Although this certainly could be another Ingram game as New Orleans is favored by 6.5, Tampa Bay has been far more susceptible against the pass, and this is the second-highest game total of the slate.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (DK: TE1, FD: TE1) – Ertz has at least 80 yards or a touchdown in 12 of his last 13 games. Over his last 16 games, he totals 98 receptions, 1,097 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 267.7 fantasy points. This would be the eighth-best fantasy season by a tight end all-time. Among all receivers last season, this would rank, respectively, fourth, 13th, fifth, and fifth. Ertz comes off of a tough matchup against a 49ers defense ranking fourth-best against tight ends over expectation to face a Denver defense ranking fourth-worst against tight ends over expectation. Denver is still one of the toughest teams against wide receivers, is now the toughest team against running backs, but is far more vulnerable to opposing tight ends. 34.8 percent of Denver’s receiving fantasy points allowed has gone to tight ends this year, while last season that number was at 29.2 percent – each number ranking highest in the league in both seasons. Ertz is the No. 1 tight end in my rankings this week, but my heavy exposure to Smith (also Ertz’s hamstring to some degree) likely has me far higher-owned on Kelce.
Jimmy Graham (DK: TE4, FD: TE4) – Graham ranks sixth among tight ends in targets per game, but, more importantly, he is seeing highly valuable targets. He ranks second among all receivers in end-zone and red-zone targets per game, and first in targets inside the 5- and 10-yard lines per game. This week he faces a Redskins defense allowing the most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (81.1), and the second-most fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. The Redskins, however, do rank best in the league versus wide receivers (against expectation) this season.
Jack Doyle (DK: TE11, FD: TE11) – I’m highlighting Doyle here for the same reason we wrote him up last week, his price relative to volume is too low. I get the love for T.Y. Hilton up against a defense allowing the second-most deep fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, but Doyle also has a strong matchup against a Houston defense allowing seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Doyle also now leads his team and ranks fourth among tight ends in expected fantasy points per game. Across the two seasons that Jacoby Brissett has played (preseason included) in the NFL, he has targeted tight ends on 27.4 percent of his attempts, though the league average rate hovers around 19.0 percent. This was true in his final year of college as well, when his leading receiver was tight end Jaylen Samuels, who had 31 more receptions and four more receiving touchdowns than the next-closest receiver. Ranking as only the 11th-highest-priced tight end, relative to the volume he’s seeing (fourth-best), I prefer him to the likely much higher-owned Vernon Davis. He also has added value as leverage off of Hilton, who will be one of the highest-owned players of the slate despite the injury of Deshaun Watson somewhat capping his upside as I think this game should be much closer than Vegas suspects.
Defense
Indianapolis Colts (DK & FD: Min. Price) – This is my first time ever writing up a defense in this article, but this one is easy. Loyal Power Hour Podcast listeners will know why, but I’ve never not played a slate where Tom Savage was starting and didn’t have at least 80 percent exposure to the opposing defense. The Colts are the cheapest defense on both sites. After trading Duane Brown, the Texans now have our collectively worst-graded offensive line and rank last in pressures allowed per dropback. “ Pocket sloth ” Tom Savage completed only one more pass (seven) than times he was sacked (six) in the “highest”-graded game of his career in Week 1.
One Play For Sunday Night
DeVante Parker (DK: WR15, FD: WR27) – Before his Week 5 injury, Parker ranked eighth among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.2), 14th in actual fantasy points per game (15.7), eighth in targets per game (9.0), second in air yards per game (139.0), and first in deep targets per game (3.0). The latter two statistics are most important to me this week. Oakland is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to receivers on deep passes (13.1). Parker projects to run 43 percent of his routes lined up against David Amerson and 34 percent of his routes lined up against Sean Smith. Among all 210 defenders targeted at least 15 times this season, Amerson is allowing a 30-plus-yard play on 14.2 percent of his targets (the highest rate in the league) and Smith is allowing a 50-plus-yard play on 12.5 percent of his targets (the highest rate in the league). This is also not just a one-season outlier. Last season, Amerson led all defenders in plays surrendered of 30 or more yards (nine), while Smith ranked second in plays surrendered of at least 40 yards (five). I rarely like to play a wide receiver coming off of an extended absence due to a high-ankle sprain, but much like with Melvin Gordon last week, if I knew he was 100-percent healthy, I’d have near 100-percent DFS exposure. Even with this uncertainty, with Jay Cutler back (and workhorse running back Jay Ajayi now out of the picture), I’m still going to be much higher-owned on Parker relative to the field, and especially so on FanDuel.
Update: David Amerson is now out for Week 9, as are cornerbacks Demetrius McCray and Gareon Conley. This is still a very strong matchup for Parker, now against mostly third-string cornerback Dexter McDonald and some of Sean Smith.
One Play For Monday Night
Marvin Jones (DK: WR20, FD: WR30) – In two games against Green Bay last season, Jones totaled 11 receptions for 281 yards and two touchdowns, or 31 percent of his total fantasy production. Green Bay is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers this season. What has me most-excited about Jones, however, is recent volume. Looking at every wide receiver’s last two games, Jones leads in – takes a deep breath – air yards (394), targets (25), red-zone targets (six), end-zone targets (seven), deep targets (eight), and expected fantasy points (58.2). That is some truly absurd volume. Of course, this is due in part to Golden Tate dealing with an injury and playing on only 59 percent of the team’s snaps in two straight blow-out losses, but still, given that ludicrous volume relative to current salary (especially on FanDuel), he’s an extremely strong tournament option.
Bold/Bad Calls
Ryan Grant (DK: WR63, FD: WR79) – With Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed, and Niles Paul all out for Sunday’s game, many will flock to Vernon Davis. While Davis’ snap count has been high in games Reed has missed, his opportunity as a receiver has been underwhelming (relative to current DFS pricetag), with just 8.6 expected fantasy points per game across five games the past two seasons. I prefer to go contrarian here and roll with Grant at a near-minimum pricetag on both sites. Many will cite Earl Thomas being out for Sunday as a boost for Davis. While it’s a boost for the entire offense in general, I’m not sure Davis is the main recipient. Over the past two seasons, Thomas was in coverage against tight ends on only 16 percent of his targets, while facing slot wide receivers on 51 percent of his targets. Grant comes off of a seven-target performance last week (Josh Doctson saw three targets), and ranks second on his team in slot routes and slot targets. He will likely be the team’s full-time slot wide receiver this week with Crowder out. Prior to last week, 52 percent of Seattle’s wide receiver fantasy points allowed went to slot wide receivers, the fourth-highest rate in the league. He likely doesn’t have amazing upside but should be a reliable salary saver, soaking up plenty of catchable low-aDOT targets with Cousins (30th in aDOT) still missing at least (Brandon Scherff is questionable) three starting offensive linemen and one backup. I don’t think it’s a coincidence last week with similar offensive line woes Crowder and Grant combined to see 51 percent of the team’s targets. I’ll also have plenty of exposure to Demarcus Robinson (as outlined above, though I like Grant slightly more), as well as Dede Westbrook if Marquise Lee sits (or Allen Hurns if both sit), but Grant is the one player I haven’t heard a compelling argument for this week.
Notes: Bobby Wagner is a gametime decision and Kam Chancellor is questionable but likely to play for Seattle on Sunday. I’m giving a huge bump to Chris Thompson if Wagner sits, and a big bump to Davis if Chancellor sits. Here’s why.
Alex Collins (DK: RB25, FD: RB23) – Of 41 qualifying running backs, Collins leads the league in yards per carry (6.0), while Buck Allen ranks a lowly 35th (3.6). Although this has still been a committee approach in recent weeks, Collins has since passed Allen on the depth chart and saw a season-high in carries (18) and receptions (two) last week. Head coach John Harbaugh said on Monday, he “expects Alex Collins to get more and more opportunities going forward.” He’s also probably worth stacking with Baltimore’s defense against a hobbled Marcus Mariota who disappointed in two straight dream matchups against Indianapolis and Cleveland.
Demaryius Thomas (DK: WR16, FD: WR17) – Thomas has disappointed DFS owners for two straight weeks with Emmanuel Sanders out of the lineup, but I’m going back to the well this week regardless of whether Sanders suits up. Thomas runs 52 percent of his routes from the left, while Philadelphia is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing left wide receivers. He draws our 81st-highest-graded cornerback (of 115) in Rasul Douglas, while Emmanuel Sanders (or his backup) draws Patrick Robinson (our third-highest-graded cornerback) on the majority of his routes. It feels really weird to say this, but Brock Osweiler might be the medicine Thomas has been looking for. Over the past three seasons, in games they both played, here are each wide receiver’s splits with each quarterback:
