NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 9

thorman

Week 9 brings a truckload of screaming value plays that will not only be covered in chalk themselves, but make it easier to roster a diminished number of expensive elite options. Last week’s injury apocalypse created that value, and it’s conspiring with the heaviest bye week of 2015 (six teams) to narrow focus onto a handful of studs. While there are always ways to differentiate our lineups, we have fewer at our disposal in Week 9. With most of the attention being paid to the top and bottom of the salary list, let’s primarily highlight the mid-range options.

They will act as needed lineup differentiators, whether you sprinkle in a few, or pack your lineup with them exclusively. Another way to vary lineup construction, especially in a week featuring so much value, is to not be afraid of leaving a few bucks on the table. We shouldn’t feel obliged to spend that last $400 if it means rearranging a lineup configuration that we really like. Just because we can’t roll it over to next week (wouldn’t that be great?), doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a sharp move to spend it all.

On with the FanDuel tournament picks.

QB Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers, $8,300 (+$100)

Roethlisberger isn’t cheap, but no matter. He is an elite play, there are enough attractive quarterbacks to ensure his ownership percentage will be palatable, and with so much value present, we won’t need to do roster calisthenics to fit his salary. The Steelers, who allow the 11th-most plays, and the Raiders, who give up the fifth-most, will play a high-volume-passing contest. Oakland allowed 73.3 plays per game to the three up-tempo teams they’ve faced this year, and Pittsburgh should use plenty of no-huddle against a defense that’s surrendered the sixth-most points to quarterbacks.

The Steelers will use the hurry-up, not only because Roethlisberger has performed better with it, but because it helps keep the pass rush at bay. He was pressured less than half as often from the no-huddle last week, and completed zero of his pressured attempts after huddling. Perhaps since defenses have trouble marking where he lines up (47-percent left, 18-percent slot, 34-percent right), Antonio Brown has caught all 10 of his no-huddle targets, for an insane 192 yards and a touchdown. Roethlisberger is also nine of 10 to Heath Miller from the no-huddle, for 104 yards and a score. Pittsburgh’s receivers have matchup advantages everywhere, and it intersects at the quarterback.

QB Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers, $7,900 (-$100 from Week 8)

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Newton is the ninth-most expensive quarterback and $1,600 below the top salary, despite being tied with Carson Palmer for second in fantasy points per dropback (0.62). Last week he managed to post 19.02 FanDuel points during a game mostly played in a deluge. Newton has thrown for two touchdowns in four of his last six games, and has 10-plus rushing attempts, a rushing touchdown, or both, in every game he’s played this year. His favorite target, Greg Olsen, has a sneaky-good matchup against a Packers defense that’s allowed an average of nine catches on 11 targets for 117.5 yards, plus a score, to tight ends in their last two games.

The Panthers are at home, where they’ve been no-huddle-heavy and just posted a multi-season high 38.4-percent hurry-up rate on Monday night. The Packers are allowing 74 plays per game over the last four weeks, and Dom Capers’ defense is well-known for letting quarterbacks shred it on the ground. Both Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick have run 10 times against Green Bay this season, and it’s likely that Newton will follow in their footsteps. He is almost always a strong tournament play, has a two-rushing-touchdown ceiling, and very little buzz this week.

RB Mark Ingram – New Orleans Saints, $7,700 (-$300)

Ingram will not be lightly-owned this week. But with options reduced, it’s fine to get some chalk on our hands if the talent, opportunity, and matchup align. Ingram is the second-highest-scoring running back, has forced the fourth-most missed tackles, and is tied for the fourth-most receptions at his position. Khiry Robinson’s broken leg means more high-leverage carries, and Ingram had already converted half of his eight attempts from inside the five-yard line into touchdowns. Robinson had five of his own.

The Saints and their +15.0 run-blocking grade (fourth-highest) are heavy home favorites, and the game script sets up for Ingram to take advantage of a Tennessee defense that is fraudulently tough on fantasy running backs. They allow the fourth-fewest points per game to the position, but allowed 5.2 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns to Doug Martin, Isaiah Crowell, Frank Gore, Lamar Miller, and Devonta Freeman, while Alfred Blue and Anthony Dixon averaged 2.8 yards per attempt. Ingram is a legitimate candidate to be Week 9’s top running back, but is not priced and won’t be owned at that level.

RB Doug Martin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,100 (-$400)

Martin definitely profiles better as a GPP play than a cash game option. The Buccaneers are underdogs, and he’s proven to be somewhat game-script dependent. He also is PFF’s top-graded running back (+15.4), ranks second in Elusive Rating, and is fourth in Breakaway Percentage out of 30 qualifying backs. Martin’s 0.47 fantasy-points-per-opportunity mark ranks second of 36 running backs, and he hasn’t had fewer than 22 touches in a game since Week 3.

There was an early-season stretch in which the Giants played surprisingly stiff run defense, but allowing 5.0 yards per carry to running backs over their last four games shows that they are who we thought they were. New York is back to allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs, and before last week’s aerial circus in New Orleans, had allowed a rushing touchdown in three straight games. Their run defense grades sixth-worst (-15.6), and while Tampa Bay’s run blocking ranks 23rd for the season (-20.2), they have a +10.5 grade since Week 3.

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RB Lamar Miller – Miami Dolphins, $6,900 (-$500 from Week 7)

While Miller couldn’t get much going against the Patriots, he still got 20 touches. That brings his average since Joe Philbin was cut away to 20.8 per game when we factor-out the second half against Houston, which he watched with his feet up. During the last three games, he’s scored a hefty 1.30 FanDuel points per touch. For some context, Devonta Freeman is scoring 0.97 points per touch this season. He leads 60 qualified running backs in yards after contact per attempt (3.7), is fifth in yards-per-attempt (5.5), and his cumulative running game grade (+5.2) ranks ninth despite seven of the backs ahead of him having more attempts.

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The Bills look like a tough matchup at first glance. Their run defense grades 10th-best (+11.3), and they’ve allowed 3.8 yards per carry (10th-best). However, losing stud defensive tackle Kyle Williams showed up when T.J. Yeldon hit them for 115 yards and a touchdown in London, and they’ve allowed 5.0 yards per carry and a pair of rushing scores in their last two outings. Miller averaged 5.4 yards per attempt against them in Week 3, but he only got seven handoffs. Six weeks later, the Dolphins are a smarter team and more likely to test Buffalo’s run defense, instead of tilting their way to another 45 pass attempts.

RB LeGarrette Blount – New England Patriots, $6,400 (+$200)

There’s no sense in calling this a “Blount Game,” since the Patriots have a 33.5-point implied total and will score in a variety of ways. But with New England being two-touchdown favorites at home, we should at least enjoy a decent chunk of “Blount Time” on Sunday. We could close our eyes this week, pick a Patriot to put in our lineup, and have it work out. But Blount is a beneficiary of a projectable game script and pairs nicely with the New England defense, which is also in a prime spot.

The Patriots have faced four defenses with a bottom-10 rushing grade, and Blount has averaged 16.5 touches, 85.5 yards, and 1.3 touchdowns in those games. Washington’s run defense ranks 26th (-14.2), and they have allowed 5.6 yards per attempt to running backs in their last three games (95 carries). They also have the sixth-best pass rush (+30.2), and New England’s typically strong pass blocking has sunk to 20th (-19.9) under the weight of injury and inexperience. “Angry Tom” narrative aside, they won’t have Brady taking many unnecessary hits in garbage time of a non-conference game.

WR Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers, $7,400 (-$200)

Cobb has been brutal to roster for going on six weeks, and despite a salary that’s dropped $1,000 since Week 1, his name doesn’t pop off the page when picking wideouts. However, coming off of his bye week and presumably as healthy has he’s been since an August shoulder injury, Cobb saw nine targets in a prohibitive matchup against Denver last week. It was his highest target total since he saw 12, and scored 31.8 FanDuel points, in a Week 3 game in Kansas City.

The Packers will need Cobb to take advantage of a great matchup against Panthers’ slot cornerback Bene Benwikere. His -6.3 coverage grade ranks 102nd out of 113 qualifying cornerbacks, and Benwikere is fresh off of allowing 48 yards and a touchdown to the ghost of Andre Johnson. Cobb, who had six catches for 121 yards and a score against Carolina last season, will need to do the heavy lifting for Aaron Rodgers in the slot, with Josh Norman and Charles Tillman locking down the perimeter. Not only do we get a chance to roster Cobb at depressed salary and ownership rates, this gives us the most favorable part of Rodgers’ bounce-back bid.

WR Martavis Bryant – Pittsburgh Steelers, $6,900 (-$300)

We should be trying to gain as much exposure to this game as we reasonably can, and Bryant is about as reasonable a GPP play as we’ll find. If he’d already played the roughly 20 additional snaps needed to qualify, he would be first among 111 wideouts in yards after catch per reception (9.9), and would rank ninth in yards per catch (17.3). A classic big-play wideout, Bryant led all receivers in average depth of target in 2014 when Roethlisberger was fully healthy.

Now Bryant gets a rounding-into-form Roethlisberger, in an up-tempo, pass-heavy, projected shootout, against an Oakland secondary that can’t cover anyone their own eyes. Of the top-60 PPR wideouts last year, he led by a mile in fantasy points per target (2.2) mainly because he had the most touchdowns per target (0.17). He has a similar rate this year (0.13), while mostly playing with pathetic passers. Now he’s a regular piece in the offense (career-high 81.6 percent snap rate in Week 8) who is averaging 7.7 targets in his last three games.

WR Michael Crabtree – Oakland Raiders, $5,800 (+$100)

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Crabtree isn’t sexy to roster, but forget the name and look at the numbers. Targets and touchdowns are sexy, and he’s averaging nearly 10 looks per game (9.7) and scored in back-to-back weeks. The Raiders are west coast underdogs traveling east for an early game that sets up to be heavy on passing and tough sledding on the ground. Amari Cooper is sexy, has the same matchup, will find his way into as many (or more) lineups as Crabtree, and cost $1,500 more in the process.

Of course, stud-in-the-making Cooper is a fine play in his own right. He works with an ascending quarterback and will face the 31st-graded pass coverage of the Steelers (-23.8). Yet Crabtree’s grade (+9.2) is more than three times as high as Cooper’s (+3.0), and the rookie has one red zone target to Crabtree’s team-leading six. Cooper will start seeing more, but the point of going the other way on a volatile trend like touchdown production is to be alone when it flips. Until their ownership levels or hints at a scheme shift make that possible, we’re better off saving the salary if forced to choose one, as unsexy as that is.

WR Marquess Wilson – Chicago Bears, $4,800 (-$200)

Wilson is still yet to play less than 76 percent of Chicago’s offensive snaps, but his involvement has depended on the availability of his fellow wideouts. With Alshon Jeffery out and Eddie Royal missing time in Weeks 4 and 5, Wilson averaged 8.5 targets, six catches, 82.5 yards, and added a touchdown. Royal will miss Monday night’s game, and so will Matt Forte – who averaged five targets per fully-healthy game. Jeremy Langford will absorb much of Forte’s workload, and is an sweet value play, but won’t entirely fill the void that the veteran workhorse left behind.

With John Fox thinking John Fox Things about rookies, and Adam Gase’s offense running the fourth-most no-huddle in the league (30.3 percent of snaps), it’s not a stretch to project more of the burden falling onto the Bears’ passing game. San Diego’s Jason Verrett will likely shadow Alshon Jeffery (Verrett’s health should be monitored; groin), and Wilson has an exploitable matchup against PFF’s 111th-graded coverage cornerback, Brandon Flowers. Wilson is an affordable path to a high over/under matchup (49 points), and if you’re strolling down Narrative Street, a proven Monday Night Hammer to wield.

TE Rob Gronkowski – New England Patriots, $8,500 (+$100)

This is a week where excess salary makes it easier to pay up for Gronkowski, so while he is still worth extending for, his ownership will be higher than recent weeks. He is on a three-game touchdown-scoring streak, and has averaged 12.5 targets, 8.5 catches, and 110.5 yards in the last two. Washington ranks just 19th in points per game allowed to tight ends, but they have not played many good ones. They did, however, allow Jacob Tamme to collect eight catches on 10 targets, for 94 yards, in Week 5.

There is not much more to say about Gronkowski, as the list of tight ends with a realistic shot at scoring twice is a short one. Aside from Olsen, and Antonio Gates (if healthy), we are essentially throwing darts – especially with Austin Seferian-Jenkins appearing like he will miss a cherry matchup for the second straight week. Jordan Reed is priced well ($5,700) and averages 9.4 targets, seven catches, 70 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns per game. When healthy, he is the focal point of Washington’s offense, but is a strong bet to be the top priority of Bill Belichick’s defense as well.

TE Julius Thomas – Jacksonville Jaguars, $5,600 (No Price Change)

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After a few games to get his feet wet, and after a Week 8 bye, we can expect Thomas to be fully-integrated into the Jaguars’ offense. It appeared that he was after collecting 13 targets, seven catches, 78 yards, and a touchdown in Week 6. But while Allen Robinson and Hurns saw 16 targets and scored twice in Week 7, Thomas received just five looks against a Bills defense that was allowing an average of four catches and 30 yards to opponents’ number-one tight ends since Gronkowski lit them up in Week 2.

The Jets haven’t exactly given it up to tight ends, other than their own Gronking, but they do allow the 11th-most receptions to the position. It is also more enticing to target New York’s starting linebackers and safeties, all of whom have negative pass coverage grades in their last two outings, than their cornerbacks or run defense (3.6 yards per attempt allowed; third-best). The Jets are a high-frequency blitz defense (41.8 percent of dropbacks), and Blake Bortles has a 94.6 quarterback rating against extra rushers. He’s completed six of seven attempts to Thomas, for 67 yards and a touchdown, when opponents have blitzed.

About the Author

pthorman
Pat Thorman (pthorman)

Pat is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy and a consultant for Draft Day Consultants Inc. He won the FSWA Newcomer of the Year in 2013, and placed 6th in the 2014 FantasyPros weekly rankings contest in his first year competing. Pat lives north of Boston with his wife and son, and you can follow him on Twitter @Pat_Thorman.