NFL Chalk Talk: Divisional Round
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about. So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the large-field tournaments on DraftKings. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
QUARTERBACK
1. Carson Palmer $6500 vs GB: 34 percent
Anytime we can argue that a quarterback has the best matchup on the slate and is among the cheapest at the position, he’s going to have heavy traffic. Palmer is at home against a banged-up Packers secondary which just gave up 25.36 DK points to Kirk Cousins. Meanwhile Cam Newton, Russ Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger have three of the toughest matchups possible for a quarterback. But note that unlike other positions, QB ownerships rarely soar above 30-35 percent. I’m less likely to try to execute a fade here than at other spots.
2. Cam Newton $7500 vs. SEA: 18 percent
Cam scored the most fantasy points this season by a wide margin, is the league’s MVP and has all his weapons healthy. In any other matchup, he’d be right there with Carson Palmer for most owned quarterback. But everyone knows Seattle gave up the second-fewest points to fantasy quarterbacks and hasn’t allowed more than one TD pass since Week 10. When these teams met in Seattle in Week 6, Newton went 20-of-36 for 269 yards with one TD and two INTs along with seven carries for 30 yards and another TD. When they met in last year’s playoffs, Newton went 23-of-36 for 246 yards with two TDs and two INTs along with an 11-37-0 rushing line. I’m always willing to take shots on a QB capable of running for multiple scores and playing at home no matter what the matchup is.
3. Russell Wilson $6800 at CAR: 14 percent
I also think Aaron Rodgers will be in the 10-14 percent range after a “Chicken Noodle Soup” game against the Redskins. But I believe slightly more people will be interested in Wilson (as they should). In the Divisional Round of last year’s playoffs, Wilson went 15-of-22 for 268 yards with three TDs and no INTs. That was at home and he wasn’t nearly as good in this year’s Week 6 matchup, but we saw his ceiling every week down the stretch this year. No one was hotter.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Tom Brady 8 percent, Ben Roethlisberger 7 percent, Alex Smith 3 percent, Peyton Manning 4 percent
RUNNING BACK
1. David Johnson $6000 vs. GB: 70 percent
Last week, there were zero running backs for people to feel confident about. This week, there is one. The wildly talented Johnson is the Cardinals’ early-down, passing-down and goal-line back. The former wide receiver is also elite in the pass game. Even with Andre Ellington (toe) back, Johnson is a great bet for 20-25 touches against the Packers. There’s always some merit to fading a player we expect to be near 70 percent owned in GPPs, but there has to be something of quality to pivot to. That’s why fading in four-game slates is so difficult.
2. Fitzgerald Toussaint $4200 at DEN: 30 percent (if DeAngelo Williams is out)
Anyone who rostered Toussaint last week at Cincy was quite happy with their 15.8 DK points. The most encouraging part was he was heavily involved in the pass game, seeing eight targets compared to zero for Jordan Todman (Todman only ran one pass route). Fitz’s pass-game usage should continue with Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder banged up and the Broncos sporting elite corner play.
3. Jonathan Stewart $5800 vs. SEA: 22 percent
Stewart is fully healthy off his foot sprain and should be ready to handle the 18.6 carries per game he got during the regular season. That volume alone is enough to make him a viable play. The problem is a Seahawks run defense that was dominant against the run this year, ranking 1st in fantasy points allowed to RBs, 1st in rush yards allowed and 4th in YPC allowed. Adrian Peterson had no shot last week, picking up 45 yards on 23 carries. Note that if Marshawn Lynch (abdomen) is active, he’ll likely push toward 20 percent ownership and knock Stewart down a couple pegs.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: James White 9 percent, Ronnie Hillman 10 percent, C.J. Anderson 6 percent
WIDE RECEIVER
Editor’s Note: Antonio Brown has been ruled OUT for this weekend’s game.
1. Antonio Brown $9800 at DEN: 55 percent (if active)
Last week, Brown was 66.2 percent owned at $9600. This slate is a little different as we have a tougher matchup at Denver and a running back to pay for in David Johnson ($6000). We also have a situation where if Brown does get cleared out of the concussion protocol, it likely won’t be until Saturday or Sunday. That will obviously have a big impact on ownership despite the late-swap feature. I suspect that there will be far more value with AB in lower buy-in tournaments as fewer people there use late swap. At the higher levels, a lot of owners will ensure they have a plan in place if Brown is active.
2. Demaryius Thomas $7000 vs PIT: 52 percent
Thomas has the best matchup of the week for a wideout and it’s not particularly close. While six of Football Outsiders’ top-6 DVOA pass defenses are all in active, Demaryius gets to face a Steelers defense that is stouter against the run and therefore funnels action to their leaky pass defense. He also has Peyton Manning back – DT averaged 3.3 more DK points per game with Peyton vs. Brock Osweiler. All this will ensure a ton of people will be rooting for Thomas to take some bubble screens to the house.
3. Julian Edelman $7100 vs. KC: 35 percent
Michael Floyd, Emmanuel Sanders and James Jones will likely be somewhere in the 20-30 percent range as well. But Edelman is the shiny toy we can roster after two months without him. He’s practicing in full off the broken foot and should be back around 90 percent of the snaps. Given the state of New England’s offensive line and a fierce Chiefs pass rush, Tom Brady will be thrilled to get the ball out quickly to his top target.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Chris Conley 5 percent, Jared Abbrederis 8 percent, Brandon LaFell 8 percent, Ted Ginn 10 percent, Larry Fitzgerald 12 percent
TIGHT END
1. Travis Kelce $5100 at NE: 40 percent
There are really only three viable candidates at tight end this week. I suspect Travis Kelce will be the highest owned for three reasons. He’s the cheapest by a significant margin, he’s coming off a difference-making week and Jeremy Maclin (ankle) will likely be out or limited. Those are all good reasons, but note that when Maclin missed Week 9 vs. PIT, Kelce’s targets did not spike as he posted 5-73-0 on six targets. There are both matchup and recency bias reasons to consider fitting one of the other two options this week.
2. Greg Olsen $6900 vs. SEA: 27 percent
The Seahawks have been a little vulnerable against tight ends during their dominant defensive run and Olsen hit them for 7-131-1 in Week 6. I’m hesitant to latch onto that as a trend though as Olsen’s lines against Seattle last year were 1-16-0 and 4-58-0. The ceiling here isn’t as high as it appears – Olsen only had two other 100-yard games this year and they both came against the “defense” of the Saints.
3. Rob Gronkowski $7500 vs. KC: 25 percent
Every week we say the same thing – no one has as much upside at the position as Gronkowski. In theory, it’s true. The problem is he hasn’t reached that upside since Week 1 yet everyone continues to play him. It’s an Anthony Davis kind of situation without the injuries. This week, Gronk has to play the defense that’s been far-and-away the best against tight ends, giving up the fewest fantasy points to the position. With most people paying for David Johnson, Carson Palmer, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas and Julian Edelman, I suspect fitting Gronk won’t be a priority.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Heath Miller 3 percent, Richard Rodgers 3 percent, Owen Daniels 2 percent