NFL Chalk Talk: Week 10
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Aaron Rodgers $7500: 19 percent
Game log watchers will look at Rodgers and see he went off for 36.96 DraftKings points in a difficult spot at Carolina last week. Then they’ll see he’s home against the Lions this week and costs $1100 less than Tom Brady (on FanDuel, Rodgers is $100 more than Brady). So I think we have a spot where both sharp DK users and the public will be on Rodgers. Still, I don’t worry too much about ownership with quarterbacks because it’s typically spread relatively evenly. Rodgers is a fine play.
2. Tom Brady $8600: 16 percent
Even though Brady burned owners last week with just 18.86 DK points at $8500, people won’t back off. He was 17.7 percent owned site-wide last week and I’d expect something similar this week against a Giants pass defense that has struggled all year. If we could get Brady at a fraction of Rodgers’ ownership, I’d suggest it’s a good spot to “pay up to be contrarian.” But with ownership likely in the same range, taking the $1100 savings on Rodgers makes sense.
3. Blake Bortles $5600: 10 percent
Perhaps I’m living in the fantasy nerd bubble, but it seems like a lot of people are on Blake Bortles this week. He’s averaging 21.4 DK points per game on the year and is facing a Ravens defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points in the league to opposing quarterbacks. Bortles is simply too cheap and so is Allen Robinson – that stack is going to be heavily owned. All that said, there’s still a “Jags stigma” out there and we’re still talking about Blake Bortles. A lot of the public won’t be able to click that name, keeping his ownership at reasonable levels. It’s similar to Derek Carr last week, who was only 8.3 percent owned despite a ridiculously low price and plus matchup. I should note that Andy Dalton ($6500) will likely also be in this 9-13 percent range.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Josh McCown 3 percent, Kirk Cousins 5 percent, Derek Carr 8 percent
RUNNING BACK
1. Todd Gurley $7300: 40 percent
Gurley was 26.7 percent owned site-wide last week despite a tougher matchup at Minnesota and the fact that Devonta Freeman was in a great spot (38.8 percent owned). This week, Freeman is on a bye and the Rams are home against the Bears. It’s going to funnel all the traffic back onto Gurley even though he’s the highest-priced RB on the slate. Still, it’s difficult for me to fade a guy who is averaging 22.4 carries over his last five games and has secured 10 catches over his last three.
2. DeAngelo Williams $6500: 37 percent
This projection assumes that Williams’ foot is healthy by Friday. His price went up $1000 following his 41.5-point eruption against the Raiders. That won’t keep traffic off him as he now gets to face a Browns run defense that ranks 29th in yards per carry allowed, 32nd in rush yards per game allowed and T-26th in rushing touchdowns allowed. I’m a bit concerned that Landry Jones ineptitude will mean far more defenders in the box and far fewer red-zone chances, but we know volume is going to be there. Williams has touched the ball an average of 25.0 times in his three starts this year.
3. Darren McFadden $4900: 22 percent
The DraftKings pricing has not adjusted to reflect McFadden’s role. He’s getting every single one of the Cowboys’ RB carries, averaging a whopping 28.3 touches per game over the last three. Yes, he only has one touchdown during that span and only caught one pass last week against the Eagles. But he’s certainly capable of excelling in the pass game and will get any goal-line chances against the Bucs. A week after being owned at 23.0 percent site-wide, I suspect McFadden will be in the same range. His floor is really hard to pass up.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Jeremy Hill 3 percent, Mark Ingram 8 percent, Justin Forsett 2 percent
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Alshon Jeffery $7100: 19 percent
Jeffery keeps doing it every week. In three games since coming off injury, he’s scored 31.7, 30.6 and 28.1 DraftKings points. Last week, his ownership topped out at 33.1 percent. I think it will come down this week because the Bears have a very difficult spot. Back-to-back road games, short week and facing a quietly excellent Rams secondary that gives up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts. The Bears have a tiny team total of 17.25. There’s plenty of evidence for a fade here.
2. Brandon LaFell $4100: 16 percent
There is not a lot of cheap value this week. I think the lowest people will feel comfortable going at RB and WR is this $4100 for LaFell, who continues to see heavy usage from Tom Brady. So even if many aren’t in love with the idea of rostering a player in New England’s spread-the-wealth offense, they’ll still start lineups with the best value play on the board. But I think LaFell’s floor is lower than he’s shown the last three weeks, meaning his elevated ownership is a red flag in tournaments.
3. Allen Robinson $6700: 15 percent
I suspect DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Crabtree, Mike Evans and Julian Edelman will also be in this range. And that’s what makes the wide receiver position so interesting this week. With Julio off the slate, Odell Beckham in tougher spots and relatively little chalk value, there’s going to be a ton of balance in WR ownership. Robinson, proving he’s matchup proof by doing work against the Jets last week, now gets the dream matchup against the Ravens’ broken secondary.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Dez Bryant 4 percent, Brandin Cooks 6 percent, Stefon Diggs 7 percent
TIGHT END
1. Jordan Reed $4600: 21 percent
Everyone wants exposure to this Saints pass defense that has won people a shipload of money over the last two weeks. An easy way to get it is through Jordan Reed, a tight end who separates like a wideout and gets red-zone looks. He’s $3400 cheaper than Rob Gronkowski, but is averaging more targets per game (9.0 vs. 8.5). I think the presence of Ben Watson and Gary Barnidge at a similar price tier will keep Reed’s ownership reasonable, but he’ll still be very popular.
2. Rob Gronkowski $8000: 14 percent
A lot of people are going to look at Gronk’s game log and give him the “nah wave.” He costs $8K yet has seen just five targets in three of his last five games. However, plenty of people will see that the Giants have been absolutely inept against tight ends this year as a result of their talent deficiencies at linebacker and safety. I won’t spending this much on Gronk’s uncertain volume in cash games, but he makes sense at a somewhat deflated ownership in tournaments.
3. Ben Watson $4300: 13 percent
Gary Barnidge and Tyler Eifert should also be in this 10-14 percent range. But Watson is the one that was 18.2 percent owned last week and the one that is averaging 6.2 catches, 85.8 yards and 0.6 TDs per game over his last five. Similar to Reed, Watson is a way to get exposure to this game which has a total of 50. I’m not on Watson as a 34-year-old guy who has never been over 763 yards in a season.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Greg Olsen 8 percent, Travis Kelce 4 percent, Julius Thomas 2 percent