NFL Chalk Talk: Week 4
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is more important than our actual box-score projections. Give a sharp player the ownership percentages before the tournament starts and he/she will be able to be profitable solely on that information.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This article refers to the Sunday-Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Aaron Rodgers $7900: 31 percent
In Week 2, going cheap at quarterback was “in.” And if people paid up, they went to Tom Brady against the Jags or Andrew Luck against the Titans. That allowed us to get Aaron Rodgers at 6.2 percent ownership in a dream spot. This week, everyone will chase their tail back to Rodgers. The problem is he’s on the road, on a short week, won’t have Davante Adams and is facing a 49ers defense that the Packers can run the ball on if they want (unlike the Chiefs’ defense). Rodgers is an easy fade for me in tournaments given how over-owned I think he’ll be.
2. Tyrod Taylor $5800: 15 percent
What does Tygod have to do to get his price to rise on DraftKings? He was $5000 Week 1, $6200 Week 2, $5800 Week 3 and is $5800 Week 4. That’s despite the fact he’s fantasy’s No. 6 quarterback and has already proven he can score against good defenses like the Patriots and Dolphins. So now that everyone has “seen it” with Tygod, they’ll be all over him at his cheap price in a home game against the Giants. Pairing him with Karlos Williams is fine for cash games, but I would not do it in tournaments due to ownership and correlation issues.
3. Carson Palmer $6800: 11 percent
Palmer was 12.3 percent owned last week in a home game against the 49ers. He has another good spot at home against the Rams, but people will also be on Tygod ($5800), Andy Dalton ($5900) and Derek Carr ($5300) at the lower tier. That should keep the quarterback ownership spread out a good bit, meaning it shouldn’t be a huge factor when selecting your player at the position.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Andrew Luck 9 percent, Russell Wilson 4 percent, Matt Ryan 4 percent.
RUNNING BACK
1. Karlos Williams $3400: 45 percent
This projection obviously assumes that LeSean McCoy (hamstring) is officially ruled out before Sunday’s 1pm ET kickoff. If so, Williams is looking at 16-20 touches against a Giants defense that lacks talent at every position except cornerback. Williams has also been a beast in his rookie year, leading the NFL in yards-per-carry and ranking third in PFF’s strict running rankings. It’s way less profitable to fade a highly-owned running back than a highly-owned receiver due to touches. As we saw in Week 1, Davante Adams isn’t guaranteed to have the ball in his hands X amount of times. Williams is.
2. Devonta Freeman $5200: 36 percent
This one assumes Tevin Coleman (ribs) will be out again. If so, there’s little reason for the Falcons not to ride Freeman extremely hard once again, as he excels in the pass game and has had a ton of red-zone/goal-line opportunities already. Even at an elevated price, Freeman is hard not to like given that he’s going to touch the ball 18-20 times regardless of game flow.
3. Adrian Peterson $7800: 14 percent
Peterson was 21.8 percent owned last week, but that was in a dream home spot against the Chargers. Now he has one of the most difficult spots in the league, on the road at the Broncos. Still, I think Peterson will have relatively high ownership because there aren’t a lot of high-end studs to pay up for this week. Additionally, I don’t think the general public truly realizes yet how elite this Denver defense is. I won’t be on Peterson.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Melvin Gordon 7 percent, Matt Forte 4 percent, Carlos Hyde 3 percent.
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Julio Jones $9300: 36 percent
Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown aren’t in the main slate. Meanwhile, Odell Beckham and Adrian Peterson have very difficult matchups. Marshawn Lynch is banged up, no one wants to touch the Bears’ Matt Forte and Dez Bryant is sidelined. My point is that there aren’t that many players we want to pay up for this week. So all the people rostering Karlos Williams, Tygod, Moncrief and Devonta Freeman will have to spend somewhere – and they’ll do it with Julio. It’s going to take a lot of gumption to fade the most talented wideout in the game, one who is getting 15.3 targets per game. But if by some chance Julio’s hamstring or toe acts up, or if he regresses to a 6-90-0 line and we don’t have him… we immediately eliminate a huge portion of a tournament field. Not only will Julio have underperformed relative to his price, but all the similar roster constructions that fit Julio’s massive $9300 price tag will go by the wayside too.
2. Randall Cobb $7400: 29 percent
With Davante Adams doubtful and Jordy Nelson out, Randall Cobb’s role is even more secure than it was before. I’m certainly going to have Cobb in cash games at his very reasonable price of $7400. But if we’re going to try to pull a Rodgers fade (see above), we have to also leave Cobb out of our tournament lineups.
3. Larry Fitzgerald $6500: 21 percent
Fitz is starting to get expensive. He opened the season at $5500 and was just $5800 last week. Now he’s up at $6500. Still, this is not a week where people are going to be pressed for price sensitivity. They’re going to fire at Fitzgerald, who has five touchdowns in his last two weeks. It’s an interesting spot to jump off board in tournaments as the pendulum is going to swing toward John Brown at some point as a result of defensive attention and natural regression. Fitz’s 16-game pace right now is an outrageous 122 catches for 1,776 yards and 26.6 touchdowns. Amari Cooper costs $6300 and has a similar projection to Fitzgerald this week.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Odell Beckham 8 percent, DeAndre Hopkins 9 percent, Brandin Cooks 3 percent.
TIGHT END
1. Greg Olsen $5400: 31 percent
Rob Gronkowski is on a bye, leaving the position wide open. The majority of the field will gravitate toward Olsen, who has seen 14 and 11 targets across the last two weeks and is facing a Bucs defense that is slightly below average against tight ends. Since Olsen is $5400 and Travis Kelce is $5300, I’d expect the ownership on Kelce to be low. We see that all the time with players at similar price points.
2. Jimmy Graham $6000: 13 percent
Coming off a squeaky wheel narrative game in which he went 7-83-1 on eight targets, some people will be thinking Jimmy Graham is back. I’m not sold on that as I still think volume will be an issue for him all year. Regardless, his name is Jimmy Graham and Gronk isn’t on the slate. That alone should prop up the ownership here.
3. Jordan Reed $4500: 10 percent
I would have projected Reed’s ownership much higher if not for Hurricane Joaquin, which will most likely bring strong winds to the Washington DC area Sunday. Sharp players will see this and get off Reed. But there’s a good chance a lot of users don’t have weather on their radar yet and therefore will want to play Reed, who on paper is in a great spot as a high-volume mismatch-creator in a game the Redskins will have to throw to win.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Travis Kelce 9 percent, Martellus Bennett 8 percent, Tyler Eifert 6 percent.