NFL Chalk Talk: Week 9
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Tom Brady $8500: 24 percent
If the Patriots are on the slate, there’s going to be a ton of traffic on them. That’s especially true when they’re in a plus matchup like this one (home vs. Redskins). The only reason I don’t think Brady’s ownership will be astronomical is because he’s expensive relative to the tier just below him and because there are a whole fistful of cheaper quarterbacks in similarly plus matchups. Still, he’ll be owned enough where I don’t think we profit a ton by rostering him. At his salary, even a performance like the one he had in Week 8 (356 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) only results in about 7.8 more DK points than expectation.
2. Drew Brees $7200: 17 percent
When Brees went off for an outrageous 50.54 DK points last week, he was 3.2 percent owned in the Milly Maker. Owners won’t make that mistake again, especially with Brees at home against the Titans. However, I suspect he’ll be a little lighter owned than many expect because of all the great options in this mid-tier. Philip Rivers (see below), Eli Manning (at TB), Cam Newton (vs. GB) and Ben Roethlisberger (vs. OAK) are all going to be reasonably popular for good reasons. There will also be people like me who really want to roster Mark Ingram and therefore won’t have as much exposure to Brees.
3. Philip Rivers $6900: 16 percent
Rivers was the highest-owned quarterback last week at 29.4 percent in the Milly Maker. He did nothing to disappoint, going over 300 yards for the fifth straight game, a span in which he has a 13:3 TD-to-INT ratio. But there are a ton of quality mid-range options this week and Keenan Allen (kidney) is a big, big loss. If you like Rivers again this week, I wouldn’t let projected ownership stand in your way of rostering him.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Matt Ryan 6 percent, Tyrod Taylor 7 percent, Aaron Rodgers 3 percent
RUNNING BACK
1. Todd Gurley $6900: 40 percent
Gurley has been over 60 percent owned in each of the last two weeks. I suspect this is the week owners pull back a bit. After facing the lowly Browns and 49ers at home, Gurley now has to go on the road to face a Vikings defense that ranks 5th against fantasy running backs. It’s certainly not an impossible spot, but it’s a far more difficult one than what he’s recently faced. We also have all the value opening up at running back such as Jeremy Langford, DeAngelo Williams and Darren McFadden. Mark Ingram ($6500) is similarly priced. All this said, Gurley is a near lock for 20 touches plus goal-line work.
2. Devonta Freeman $8000: 21 percent
I thought more people would be on Le’Veon Bell last week, which would keep Freeman’s ownership down. It turned out that Freeman was 24.6 percent owned site-wide and Bell was only 12.8 percent. So with Bell now done and Adrian Peterson scuffling while in a bad matchup, everyone wanting to spend at RB is going to go Freeman. I certainly don’t blame them, as nothing has changed here. Although Freeman hasn’t scored the last two weeks and been under 20 DK points each time, he’s still getting 27.0 touches during that span. Facing San Francisco is an excellent spot to get back on the eruption side of the box score.
3. DeAngelo Williams $5500: 18 percent
Everyone wants to get the new toy into their lineups. This week that man is DeAngelo Williams, who takes over as the no-doubt feature back with Le’Veon Bell (knee) done. When Bell was suspended the first two weeks, Williams averaged 23.0 touches per game while playing 87.6 percent of the snaps. There’s no reason to think he won’t get similar usage and is facing a Raiders team that everyone still thinks is a sieve (even though they aren’t). If Williams was $3000 or $3500, I’d be a lot more excited about eating the chalk here. But at $5500, he’s the same price as LeSean McCoy, $500 less than Latavius Murray and only $1000 less than Mark Ingram. DeAngelo is also $1200 more than Darren McFadden and $1500 more than Jeremy Langford, both of whom I expect to be popular.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Adrian Peterson 6 percent, LeSean McCoy 7 percent, Doug Martin 5 percent
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Alshon Jeffery $6700: 31 percent
Jeffery was 23.5 percent owned in the Milly Maker last week and popped off for 30.6 DK points. His price only went up $300 and he has what looks like another pristine matchup at San Diego. As noted by PFF’s Mike Clay, Jeffery will likely be shadowed by Jason Verrett, a standout young corner who has held Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb and Amari Cooper in check already this year. It’s a matchup Jeffery definitely has the edge in, but it’s not a perfect matchup. Regardless, he’s going to be massively owned.
2. Antonio Brown $8100: 23 percent
I think Julian Edelman will be in the 18-22 percent range as well and he costs $8200. So the ownership will be split a bit here. Still, Antonio Brown is a total mismatch for the Raiders’ talent-deficient secondary and he’s still available at a significant discount. Remember that Brown’s price was at $9200 when Ben Roethlisberger first got hurt. While I expect Alshon Jeffery to be the chalkiest wideout this week, Big Ben/Brown might be the chalkiest stack.
3. Julio Jones $9300: 21 percent
Julio was $9200 last week and was still 20.5 percent owned in the Milly Maker. There are even more viable punt plays this week (Stevie Johnson, Heath Miller, Brandon LaFell, Jeremy Langford etc.), so people will be able to afford Julio again if they want him. I’ll never argue with anyone rostering the game’s best receiver in a plus matchup like the one at San Francisco. Just realize going in that you need 27.9 DK points just to 3x salary. A game of 9-120-1 is only 30 DK points.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Randall Cobb 3 percent, Dez Bryant 5 percent, DeSean Jackson 2 percent
TIGHT END
1. Antonio Gates $4700: 22 percent
Gates’ ability to practice this week combined with Ladarius Green’s ankle injury and Keenan Allen’s absence sets him up really well. Everyone wants to play Gronk obviously, but price is going to be an issue there. So as long as Gates gets full clearance by Saturday, I think he’ll be the highest owned tight end. And I have no problem with that given the Chargers’ inept run game and how they’ve been thinned out at pass-catcher.
2. Rob Gronkowski $8000: 19 percent
It’s hard to look at Gronkowski in the tight end column because he’s $3300 more than Antonio Gates and $5000+ more than guys like Heath Miller and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. If Gronk was listed in the wideout section, it would be a different story. The point is that as long as he’s in this $8K range, he’s going to be underowned relative to his ceiling. We can safely call Gronkowski a good GPP play every week.
3. Heath Miller $2700: 17 percent
The Giants are arguably worse than the Raiders against tight ends, but Austin Seferian-Jenkins’ shoulder injury continues to linger. So the premier DvP play is Heath Miller against the Raiders. This one might not be that popular, but Miller had 10 catches last week and is priced for free at $2700. Even at somewhat elevated ownership, I’m OK with Miller as he gives us access to high-ceiling plays at other positions.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Greg Olsen 5 percent, Jordan Reed 7 percent, Julius Thomas 2 percent