NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Page Three
Buffalo Bills at Washington Redskins
| Buffalo Bills | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | FedExField | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 44 | 22.5 | 1 | 44 | 21.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.3 | 13 | 28 | 3 | Offense | 21.6 | 17 | 19 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.6 | 17 | 16 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 23.2 | 15 | 21 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington Redskins | 15 | 17 | 22 | 14 | Buffalo Bills | 17 | 22 | 25 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 65 | 39 | 7 | 717 | Jackson | 35 | 20 | 3 | 335 | |
| Woods | 74 | 43 | 3 | 508 | Garcon | 91 | 59 | 3 | 614 | |
| Hogan | 49 | 32 | 2 | 396 | Crowder | 65 | 49 | 1 | 463 | |
| Clay | 78 | 51 | 3 | 528 | Reed | 92 | 67 | 7 | 694 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Charles Clay (BUF, Out), Karlos Williams (BUF, Questionable), Chris Thompson (WAS, Questionable)
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0
WAS Matchup Rating: 3.5
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Since Week 2, the disappointing Matt Ryan and struggling Matt Cassel are the only quarterbacks to not score multiple touchdowns against Washington. This week, Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,500, DK $5,600) will seek to avoid his spot in that short list of exceptions, as he’s scored seven times in his last three starts, and has five multi-touchdown efforts on the season. His play has been inconsistent, but when he’s playing well, he’s a DFS superstar thanks to his rushing ability and big play potential through the air. The risk for a mediocre game is there, but the upside is strong against a below average pass defense, so he’s a strong tournament play.
Running Game: LeSean McCoy (FD $7,900, DK $6,300) has been seeing some of the most consistent volume we’ve seen from a running back in the league this season, with 19 or more carries in five straight games. However, that could all come to a halt with the imminent return of Karlos Williams (FD $4,900, DK $3,600). Williams is unlikely to take too many touches away from McCoy, but he could snag a few and score a touchdown, which would be a frustrating series of events considering McCoy’s lack of scores this season even with Williams out. Washington is a neutral matchup for opposing backs, and McCoy is an elite runner, so he’s worthwhile in any format, but the lack of touchdowns and threat of a vulture from Williams makes him a less than optimal pick this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Sammy Watkins (FD $7,200, DK $6,200) has the star power and big-play potential among the pass catchers for the Bills, but Robert Woods (FD $5,100, DK $3,800) has been involved quite a bit as of late. He doesn’t have the same per-target upside as the first-rounder on the other side of the formation, and will also draw a tougher assignment against Bashaud Breeland, according to Pro Football Focus’ charting. Watkins will avoid Breeland for over half of his snaps, which means Taylor can target his best wideout liberally this weekend. I expect the duo to connect for a touchdown, but the volume and efficiency from there are questionable. Watkins has scored in three straight games, but had two three-catch outings prior. He’s a strong option this weekend, but his track record should mean we should approach with a certain level of caution.
The Takeaway: The Bills aren’t projected to score all that many points against Washington this weekend, yet their star players all appear to be in good spots. Sammy Watkins has been playing extremely well and has a decent matchup, and is worthy of consideration in all formats, while Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy are fine tournament picks.
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: You can lock Kirk Cousins (FD $7,100, DK $5,200) in for a touchdown per game, but outside of a couple of outliers against bad NFC South defenses, he never gets more than that one passing touchdown. It’s an incredible level of consistency that does nothing for us in daily fantasy, as one passing touchdown is never enough in an NFL where three to four touchdown are thrown by a few passers every week. The Buffalo defense allows multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks on a regular basis, and despite their talent at every level and capable defensive head coach, they’re a mediocre defense against opposing passing games. Still, Cousins has limited upside and a track record of delivering a touchdown and an interception and little else on a game-by-game basis.
Running Game: The Bills rank 28th in DVOA defense against the run, but Washington doesn’t make it easy for us to figure out which back will get the most touches, or the most meaningful touches. Matt Jones (FD $5,200, DK $4,000) has 18 carries in each of his last two games, but had 13 combined in the two prior to that. He hasn’t averaged more than four yards per carry in a game in over a month, and hasn’t scored in that timeframe either. Alfred Morris (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) has an incredible game log of carries: 6, 4, 15, 2, 23, 6, 11. Like Jones, he doesn’t have a ton of efficient, productive games, and just scored his first touchdown of the season in Week 14. This backfield is a mess, but Jones appears locked into more touches, and you’ll want the upside he provides as more of a big-play threat. He’s the GPP flier of this duo.
Pass Catchers: The only player with consistent, valuable volume in the Washington passing game is Jordan Reed (FD $6,300, DK $5,900), who has seen eight or nine looks in the last four games, and that’s target totals seen by few other players at the tight end position. His target leadership means the leftovers are split between DeSean Jackson (FD $6,400, DK $4,500) and Pierre Garcon (FD $5,600, DK $4,100). However, with Jackson dealing with an injury, Garcon would become incredibly appealing as the top wideout against a middling pass defense. If both play, either could be used in a tournament, but neither would be worth a major investment. The Bills have been prone to giving up yards to slot receivers and other third and fourth options, as it’s their weakest wide receiver position in terms of DVOA defense, so Jamison Crowder (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) would come into play if Jackson is out, as he would move up the target depth chart while still playing from the slot, which is a favorable place to be against the Bills as a receiver.
The Takeaway: Washington are home underdogs in this one, but may offer a daily fantasy football option or two for tournament lineups. Jones and Reed are the top plays, and injuries will dictate if any other pass catchers are viable for your rosters.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
| Kansas City Chiefs | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | M&T Bank Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | 42 | 24.75 | 7.5 | 42 | 17.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.5 | 8 | 27 | 7 | Offense | 21.4 | 20 | 10 | 25 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 23 | 20 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 18.7 | 4 | 17 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 26 | 3 | 31 | 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 5 | 27 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 103 | 72 | 5 | 928 | Aiken | 94 | 54 | 4 | 674 | |
| Wilson | 43 | 25 | 2 | 379 | Givens | 41 | 17 | 1 | 311 | |
| Thomas | 24 | 17 | 2 | 174 | Brown | 30 | 14 | 0 | 112 | |
| Kelce | 86 | 59 | 4 | 749 | Gillmore | 47 | 33 | 4 | 412 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Spencer Ware (KC, Questionable), Crockett Gillmore (BAL, Out)
KC Matchup Rating: 6.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 2.5
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: The Ravens have given up their fair share of big games to opposing quarterbacks this season, so despite a couple of decent games against subpar passers over the past month, this is still a matchup to target. After Russell Wilson dismantled the Baltimore secondary in Week 14, it will be the less exciting but similarly tooled Alex Smith (FD $7,000, DK $5,100) who gets a chance to take on this struggling defense. Smith had back-to-back multi-touchdown games prior to last week’s letdown against the Chargers, which helps serve as a reminder that Alex Smith is still Alex Smith. The upside for a big game is there, but the downside for Smith and the Chiefs to play poorly or keep it conservative is there as well. He’s one of the best tournament options (especially thanks to his ability to run for 40-50 yards), but doesn’t have the safety for confident cash game use. I can’t blame you if you use him in cash, but don’t be surprised if you get a 180/1/0 stat line.
Running Game: Charcandrick West (FD $5,900, DK $4,800) and Spencer Ware (FD $5,900, DK $4,000) would split time in the backfield yet again this week if Ware was fully healthy, but with Ware not practicing yet this week as he deals with broken ribs, it’s looking like a one-man show. West will get most of the touches for the Kansas City offense out of the backfield in a game against a decent run defense, but in a game the Chiefs should win with ease. The Ravens have allowed only five touchdowns to running backs this season, and don’t allow many efficient runners or big producers out of the backfield in the passing game. But the Chiefs will give West every opportunity to succeed, and with game flow on his side, he’s viable in GPP formats as a cheap building block.
Pass Catchers: Receivers have been picking up big plays and touchdowns against the Ravens all season long, and Jeremy Maclin (FD $6,700, DK $5,500) should continue that trend this weekend. Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett were just the latest in a string of players to get past or around the Baltimore secondary for a big game, as wideouts have found paydirt 24 times this season against the Ravens. Maclin sees consistent targets and has the most talent of the Kansas City pass catchers, and is a cash-viable core play this week. Albert Wilson (FD $5,300, DK $3,600) only sees a handful of looks every week, but that may be enough for 50 yards and a score against Baltimore. Consider him for your GPP lineups, as he’s the only other WR worth rostering in DFS for the KC offense. And while they’re terrible against wideouts, the Ravens are decent against tight ends, so Travis Kelce (FD $6,000, DK $4,400) is relegated to GPP status, but is still in play as a rare player at his position with regular targets and a decent shot at a touchdown every week.
The Takeaway: The Chiefs are heavy favorites in this one, and if they’re going to run away with a lead, it will likely come via the arm of Alex Smith and the hands and feet of Jeremy Maclin. There are no guarantees that we’ll see fireworks from the Chiefs offense, however, and Charcandrick West might be the leading fantasy scorer thanks to heavy volume as Kansas City tries to control the clock and get out of town with a W. Consider any of the main cogs in the offense in a tournament, and don’t forget about Albert Wilson if you’re looking to set yourself apart.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Matt Schaub (FD $6,000, DK $5,000) is likely to return to the starting role this week for the Ravens. It doesn’t matter if he does or doesn’t for daily fantasy purposes, however, since the Baltimore passing game has no healthy talent remaining and can be totally avoided.
Running Game: Javorius Allen (FD $6,600, DK $4,500) continues to see heavy volume in the passing game for the Ravens, and will also likely see more than the eight carries he got last weekend in a blowout loss to the Seahawks. The Chiefs are unlikely to win quite as easily as Seattle, so Allen may get 12 or more carries to go with his usual complement of targets. This could result in a decent game on a PPR site, even with the Chiefs presenting a formidable opponent (eighth in DVOA, 28th in fantasy points allowed). He’s a tournament candidate.
Pass Catchers: Jeremy Butler (FD $5,400, DK $3,700) led the Ravens in targets last time out, and has been emerging as a consistent part of the Baltimore passing game. This is great for his career, but terrible for fantasy, as it adds another player into a weak pool of pass catching options. The Chiefs have been playing better against the pass as the season has gone on and currently rank fourth in DVOA against opposing passing attacks. They have big points allowed numbers to wideouts thanks to some big games, most of which came early in the season. Don’t let this fool you into rostering a Baltimore wideout in what should be a very low scoring game for the Ravens.
The Takeaway: The Ravens are essentially shut down for the season, looking ahead to a hopefully healthier squad in 2016. Buck Allen should get plenty of run and is a viable option in PPR formats, but otherwise, avoid this offense in DFS.
Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks
| Cleveland Browns | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:05 p.m. | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.5 | 43 | 14.25 | -14.5 | 43 | 28.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.5 | 29 | 8 | 30 | Offense | 26.2 | 6 | 20 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | Opp. Defense | 27.5 | 30 | 23 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 1 | 3 | 27 | Cleveland Browns | 25 | 24 | 21 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 104 | 58 | 5 | 870 | Baldwin | 80 | 61 | 11 | 860 | |
| Hawkins | 43 | 27 | 0 | 276 | Kearse | 52 | 36 | 3 | 503 | |
| Gabriel | 42 | 26 | 0 | 223 | Lockett | 51 | 41 | 0 | 553 | |
| Barnidge | 100 | 65 | 8 | 901 | Willson | 23 | 15 | 1 | 196 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Marshawn Lynch (SEA, Out)
CLE Matchup Rating: 1.0
SEA Matchup Rating: 8.0
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Let’s not waste anyone’s time. Don’t start any Cleveland Browns in daily fantasy this week. Even if you’re being sneaky, don’t spend on a quarterback from this team.
Running Game: Don’t waste your time looking at their running backs, either. Seattle is second-best at limiting opposing QB points in fantasy, but are best at limiting points from opposing backs.
Pass Catchers: The one position where they struggle is against tight ends, ranking ninth in points allowed this season. Gary Barnidge (FD $6,400, DK $5,000) is the only Cleveland player you can even begin to consider, and even then, he’s a very speculative play.
The Takeaway: The Browns may have a game similar to the Bears earlier this season when facing the Seahawks, in which punts are the most frequent offensive play. Barnidge is the only option to consider, and his touchdown upside is very limited.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: The other side of this game offers a completely opposite set of recommendations. Use every Seahawk you can afford this weekend. Russell Wilson (FD $8,800, DK $7,000) is on fire of late, with 17 touchdowns in his last four outings. No price increase would be enough for a player finding the end zone that often. Will he keep up that pace? Probably not. But picking a home game against the Browns with no healthy running backs available as his letdown spot just isn’t good process. Cleveland ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass, and eighth in fantasy points allowed to the position. He’s not cheap, but Wilson is just behind Newton in terms of top options this weekend.
Running Game: Much like the Panthers, the Seahawks will likely lean on their veteran third-down back (In this case, Fred Jackson (FD $5,300, DK $4,400) instead of Mike Tolbert) in his usual role, while giving early-down carries to a committee of other backs. Your favorite fantasy site may not even offer Bryce Brown or Christine Michael as options this weekend, and to be honest, both have a lot more hype and name recognition than they do potential for a big game. Jackson is the only Seattle back I would consider, as he could have a Danny Woodhead type of outing. But generally, this is a spot where the passing game should just continue to build on their momentum, allowing Russell Wilson and company to continue to pour on the points.
Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin (FD $7,400, DK $5,800), Tyler Lockett (FD $6,000, DK $4,200) and Jermaine Kearse (FD $5,500, DK $3,500) are the three top passing game options for Seattle, with Baldwin seeing consistent volume and production over the past few weeks, while Lockett and Kearse have been a bit more inconsistent. Baldwin is too cheap given his hot streak, and should be deployed in all formats, while Lockett is the easier pick in tournaments, and Kearse has sneaky potential as a contrarian way to get in on this offense. The Browns are actually decent against tight ends when compared to other positions, and no Seattle tight end sees all that much work anyway, so stick to the trio of wideouts.
The Takeaway: The Seahawks should roll right over the Browns in this matchup, and will only be limited by how long they continue to attempt to score. The passing game is full of possible cash game and tournament targets, while any of the backs are viable, but may not be available on your site of choice.
Green Bay Packers at Oakland Raiders
| Green Bay Packers | Oakland Raiders | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:05 p.m. | O.co Coliseum | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 46.5 | 24.75 | 3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.4 | 12 | 24 | 8 | Offense | 23.0 | 15 | 13 | 26 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.1 | 23 | 28 | 12 | Opp. Defense | 18.8 | 6 | 10 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Oakland Raiders | 20 | 19 | 14 | 31 | Green Bay Packers | 11 | 12 | 9 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cobb | 111 | 65 | 6 | 764 | Cooper | 113 | 62 | 4 | 917 | |
| Adams | 74 | 38 | 1 | 355 | Crabtree | 120 | 70 | 7 | 779 | |
| Jones | 66 | 35 | 7 | 660 | Roberts | 45 | 27 | 5 | 423 | |
| Rodgers | 70 | 49 | 7 | 453 | Smith | 12 | 11 | 1 | 53 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Davante Adams (GB, Questionable)
GB Matchup Rating: 7.0
OAK Matchup Rating: 4.5
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: The Raiders have allowed a healthy amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, but that’s thanks in large part to the team facing the second-most passing attempts on the year. Oakland actually allows touchdowns at a lower-than-league-average pace, and is generally an average to decent pass defense, but for fantasy purposes, the amount of passes they face lead to fantasy points which paint a different picture about the quality of their defense. Aaron Rodgers (FD $9,000, DK $7,400) is hardly locked into volume, as the Packers are content to let him throw only 30-35 times and let the running game keep the defense honest. And since the Raiders are just as average against the run as they are against the pass, we can expect a normal number of passes from Rodgers. Average Rodgers against an average Raiders pass defense doesn’t stand out as a value play to me, especially when he’s priced too close to elite options in great matchups. There’s the potential for the Green Bay signal caller to return to his old form, but this season’s version of Rodgers isn’t appealing when considering the other options.
Running Game: It took some mind games, but Eddie Lacy (FD $6,900, DK $5,200) appears to be back to the RB1 we expected him to be. He carried the ball 24 times last week and went over 100 yards, while James Starks (FD $5,800, DK $4,400) had 11 carries of his own and chipped in with four receptions. The Raiders learned their lesson after allowing a big game to Adrian Peterson in Week 10, and have been decent over the past few games. With that said, the competition has been relatively weak, and they are prone to giving up a big game to a good running back, as we’ve seen a couple of times this year. Oakland is particularly bad against backs in the passing game, which is where Starks is theoretically better, but we’ve seen Lacy succeed in the past, as well. I think Lacy is the smarter play, and that he’s viable in cash games, but Starks is an interesting GPP option. The Packers should be in for a competitive affair, and will need to use their full playbook to keep up with the Raiders.
Pass Catchers: The Raiders don’t have a slot corner capable of keeping up with Randall Cobb (FD $7,200, DK $6,300). If he gets volume, he’ll get fantasy points. Cobb has seen double-digit targets in three of his last six and in five games this season, but only one of those has been on the road. There’s a healthy amount of risk with Cobb, but it would be insane for the Pack to not feature their shifty slot man. Former Raider James Jones (FD $5,300, DK $4,000) is seemingly next in line for the Packers in the passing game, and is always a touchdown threat. He’s viable in GPP formats. And while 146 yards isn’t a likely outcome, Richard Rodgers (FD $5,500, DK $4,300) is in play against a team that is lost when it comes to defending tight ends. Vernon Davis had a field day in Week 14 against this defense, and Rodgers can do the same. Volume is the only question mark, which leaves him as a tournament play.
The Takeaway: The Raiders are a pretty average defense that has deceptively bad fantasy points allowed numbers, but the Packers have been playing below expectations all season long. I expect Green Bay to step things up a notch eventually, and this may be the week when we see a nice game all around from the Pack. I just don’t think it’s likely enough to trust any Packers in cash games, but Lacy, Cobb and Richard Rodgers are viable in tournaments.
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: Cam Newton is the only quarterback to score more than two touchdowns against the Packers this season, a feat Derek Carr (FD $7,200, DK $5,600) has accomplished five times this season. One of those came in a pretty tough matchup with the Jets, as well, which means something has to give in this duel between proven defense and proven quarterback. Carr struggled against the Broncos, as most passers do, and had a terrible game against the Lions. Otherwise, he’s been good for a couple of touchdowns per week, which wouldn’t kill your lineup if he fails to go above and beyond expectations. At his price, he’s tournament worthy, but the Packers and their eighth-ranked DVOA pass defense aren’t the best spot to invest heavily in the talented young passer.
Running Game: Latavius Murray (FD $5,900, DK $4,500) has some of the most consistent volume in the NFL, but doesn’t do a whole lot with it. A week after a decent game against Kansas City, he was brought back down to Earth against a tough Denver defense. This week’s game against Green Bay isn’t that tough, as the Packers rank 19th in DVOA against the run, and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season. His price is too low for his volume and potential, and while his involvement in the passing game will be limited thanks to a good Packer defense against those sorts of routes, his running ability is worthy of GPP consideration.
Pass Catchers: The Raiders have added another set of hands into the mix at receiver, as Seth Roberts (FD $5,400, DK $3,300) is seeing a few targets per week and appears to be a good red zone threat for the Oakland offense. He cuts into the volume for Amari Cooper (FD $6,900, DK $6,000) and Michael Crabtree (FD $6,700, DK $5,700), who had down weeks against a tough Denver defense, but are normally among the safer options in fantasy football at receiver. The Packers rank 25th in terms of points allowed to wideouts, and when they have allowed decent fantasy days to receivers this season, it has been to top wide receiver options more often than not. I would consider Cooper the “top” receiver for the Raiders, but the line between he and Crabtree is so close that it’s tough to pick between the two. This isn’t a great spot for either one, but if you’re taking a flier, I would prefer Cooper over Crabtree. The Packers have a capable slot corner, as well, which means Roberts may struggle to have the same success he’s had over the past couple of weeks.
The Takeaway: The Raiders host a Packers team heading out to the west coast for what should be a very interesting contest. There are no rock solid options here, but Carr, Murray, Cooper and Crabtree are all good enough to mix into tournaments if you think Carr can continue his strong play despite a somewhat tough opponent.