NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Page Two
| Green Bay Packers | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 44.5 | 19.5 | -5.5 | 44.5 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.9 | 17 | 21 | 17 | Offense | 23.1 | 14 | 29 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.2 | 10 | 6 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 23.2 | 19 | 26 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 10 | 5 | 23 | 4 | Green Bay Packers | 21 | 25 | 29 | 2 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Nelson | 77 | 47 | 6 | 443 | Funchess | 98 | 57 | 7 | 762 | |
| Adams | 111 | 69 | 9 | 828 | Shepard | 33 | 17 | 1 | 202 | |
| Cobb | 65 | 51 | 2 | 502 | Clay | 12 | 3 | 0 | 46 | |
| Kendricks | 24 | 13 | 1 | 162 | Olsen | 11 | 4 | 0 | 38 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Devin Funchess (CAR WR) – Questionable (Shoulder)
GB Matchup Rating: 6.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.5
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: He. Is. Back. It’s all happening! (Insert the “It’s Happening” GIF here). Aaron Rodgers has been medically cleared to play and is reportedly going to be given the keys to the Green Bay offense for this huge game in Carolina. Green Bay’s come from behind win over the Browns in Week 14 kept their Wild Card hopes alive, so they have reason to put Rodgers back under center. Obviously, we know that Rodgers has QB #1 upside on a weekly basis, but how will he fare after such a long absence? Will he be rusty? The matchup is relatively difficult, as well. I’m willing to take a few shots on him in tournaments, but he isn’t the safest play in his return. Still, it will be fun to see him under center again.
Running Backs: Similar to the situation in Miami, where Kenyan Drake has taken full advantage of his opportunity, Jamaal Williams is doing the same in Green Bay. He has dominated this backfield over the last few weeks despite Aaron Jones returning to game action, and there’s no reason to believe that Williams will slow down just because Aaron Rodgers is back. In fact, he might be more efficient simply because the Packers will have a greater ability to stretch the field through the air now. Williams has logged 123 and 118 total yards in the last two games, scoring three total touchdowns in the process. He has played on a heavy majority of the snaps, and that was a bit surprising last week given that the Packers were playing from behind for almost the entire game. This isn’t a great matchup, but Williams is firmly entrenched into the mid-range RB mix. He has shown solid pass catching ability, too, which is a nice boost to his value going forward.
Pass Catchers: This group has basically been the Davante Adams show with Brett Hundley under center, and you know Jordy Nelson will be happy to have Rodgers back. Nelson has done absolutely nothing since Rodgers got hurt. Unfortunately, the sites have priced Nelson up in anticipation of Rodgers’ return. DraftKings bumped him up by $1,800 compared to where he was a week ago. While Nelson is certainly in play as long as Rodgers starts, he is not the must play that he would have been if he was priced at the same level as he was a week ago. You can certainly consider Adams and/or Randall Cobb, as well. The whole group should benefit from Rodgers’ return. I would be more excited if this was an easier matchup. Carolina ranks a very respectable 7th in the league in DVOA against the pass this year.
The Takeaway: This team is a bit of a wild card here, but it will be fun to see Aaron Rodgers back in action. He’s a strong GPP play in his return. Jamaal Williams is quickly becoming a steady option in the backfield, too. As for the receivers, Jordy Nelson should get a huge boost with Rodgers under center, though the sites were not sleeping and priced him up a good bit compared to recent weeks. Davante Adams has become the #1 WR on this team and is also in play. A Rodgers/Nelson or Rodgers/Adams GPP stack is definitely something I will consider on a lot of rosters in Week 15.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: The big issue with Cam Newton as a quarterback has always been the accuracy of his arm. His passing numbers are downright woeful at times, but he provides plenty of upside with his ability to run. The passing should also be a bit easier this week in a matchup against the Packers’ barren secondary, which has been besieged by injuries over the past month. They weren’t a great unit to begin with, but the current prospects are very dim. In what sets up as an important game for both teams, this could be a game where Newton flashes his upside. As with Rodgers on the other side, Newton is a very strong tournament option in Week 15.
Running Backs: The last time Jonathan Stewart had a big game, I cautioned everyone not to chase the one big performance. He then rushed for 71 total yards over the next two games combined, though he did find the end zone in both of them. Stewart then rushed for 103 yards and three scores last week, though 60 of those yards came on a long first quarter touchdowns. I don’t think the touchdowns are sustainable at his current rate, especially since he had just one total touchdown in the first ten games of the year. This feels like the big fish play of the week, similar to Kenny Stills a few weeks back. I will be staying far, far away.
Pass Catchers: Greg Olsen simply can’t stay healthy. I watched him limp off the field twice in last week’s game, and he isn’t a fantasy option at this point. Devin Funchess has become this team’s top receiver, and he has scored in three of the last four games. Green Bay’s secondary doesn’t really have anyone to match up with Funchess, so the biggest worry is Newton’s ability to deliver him the football accurately. Christian McCaffrey is still listed as a running back, but he’s a glorified hybrid RB/WR most of the time. His asking price remains a little too high for my liking. If I use any pass catcher here, it will be Funchess.
The Takeaway: In a big game for both teams, Cam Newton stands out as the top option for the Panthers. Of course, you don’t have to pair him with a pass catcher, even in a GPP, since Newton is capable of making things happen with his legs. Should you choose to pair him with someone, Devin Funchess is the clear top target these days. Don’t fall for the Jonathan Stewart trap; his recent touchdown pace is merely a stroke of variance after he scored just once in the season’s first ten weeks.
| Baltimore Ravens | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 40 | 23.5 | 7 | 40 | 16.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.5 | 9 | 30 | 9 | Offense | 15.2 | 32 | 22 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.8 | 29 | 19 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 18.9 | 4 | 15 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 27 | 13 | 14 | 31 | Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 21 | 5 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 71 | 39 | 3 | 418 | Coleman | 42 | 20 | 2 | 268 | |
| Wallace | 63 | 37 | 3 | 559 | Gordon | 17 | 7 | 1 | 154 | |
| Moore | 30 | 15 | 2 | 213 | Higgins | 41 | 20 | 0 | 214 | |
| Watson | 59 | 45 | 3 | 347 | DeValve | 49 | 28 | 1 | 351 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Mike Wallace (BAL WR) – Questionable (Ankle)
BAL Matchup Rating: 6.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 3.0
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: The Ravens lost a heartbreaking game to the Steelers last Sunday night, but overshadowed in that was the fact that the Baltimore offense looked very good for the second straight week. Both of those have come against decent defensive teams, and there’s no reason why they can’t keep it rolling against the winless Browns. Last week’s loss was a big hit to Baltimore’s playoff hopes, but their remaining opponents have a combined eight wins on the year. Baltimore could very easily win out and finish 10-6. That would be enough to get them into the playoffs, so they still have their fate in their own hands. Joe Flacco has been very solid in those last two games, but he still hasn’t put up overwhelming numbers despite the fact that Baltimore has scored 80+ points in those games. This is a great matchup, but the ceiling remains relatively limited.
Running Backs: Alex Collins is very good, folks. It’s amazing to see all these running backs that have broken out over the second half of the season, and Collins is certainly among that group. Cleveland has been much better against the run than the pass this year, but even the rush defense has deteriorated a bit of late. The Ravens are full touchdown favorites on the road in this game, meaning Collins should continue to see plenty of work. He has scored in four straight games and remains far too cheap on every site. His $5,000 price tag on DraftKings is particularly appealing. On a week that doesn’t have a ton of value plays, Collins is definitely in the mix as one of the safest value selections.
Pass Catchers: Part of the reason why Joe Flacco doesn’t put up good numbers is because he lacks true weapons to throw the ball to. Jeremy Maclin is on the back side of his career and has battled injuries all year. Mike Wallace is somewhat of a one trick pony. The team doesn’t have a bona fide #3 wide receiver. Ben Watson is the tight end. Even against the Browns, it’s hard to find an option to love from this group. If forced to choose one, I will opt for the upside of Wallace, but he is nowhere near a must play.
The Takeaway: My favorite player from the Ravens is definitely Alex Collins. He has been fantastic over the past month, the game flow sets up nicely, and the price tag is still surprisingly affordable on every site. The passing game is tough to trust despite the matchup, as there isn’t a steady wide receiver that we can trust. Joe Flacco is still too risky despite his elevated play of late.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: DeShone Kizer got off to a hot start last week against the Packers before struggling in the second half. The turnovers remain a problem, and the only thing that is salvaging any sort of fantasy value for Kizer is his ability to run. It’s tough to endorse him in a matchup with the Ravens, though Baltimore’s pass defense is less imposing with the loss of Jimmy Smith. Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards last week. Cleveland, as usual, will likely have to throw a lot, too. You could consider Kizer as a risk/reward punt play in tournaments, but be aware of the risk and the low floor.
Running Backs: Isaiah Crowell has shown flashes in recent weeks, but there’s no way I’m going here with a likely negative game script and a matchup against Baltimore’s defense. Pass.
Pass Catchers: Kizer suddenly has some weapons in the passing game with both Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman healthy. Both had solid games in Week 14 against the Packers, as both put up 60+ yards and a touchdown. Baltimore’s pass defense was shredded by Ben Roethlisberger last week, and they will be significantly weaker without Jimmy Smith manning one of the cornerback positions. While I don’t think Gordon and/or Coleman are must plays here, they certainly carry a solid ceiling. Both are better suited for tournament play. David Njoku was a trendy tight end selection last week after a couple of solid games, but he hit the floor with a dud against the Packers. With Gordon and Coleman back in the mix, he carries a little too much risk for me.
The Takeaway: If you go anywhere, it should be to the passing game. Baltimore’s defense is weaker in that department without Jimmy Smith, and the Browns certainly have some talented receivers. Kizer, Gordon, and Coleman would be risk/reward GPP pairings if you can stomach the risk. Baltimore’s defense is also in play, as the Browns are obviously winless for a reason. If I am paying up for a defensive unit, though, I prefer Jacksonville over Baltimore.
| Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5 | 38.5 | 13.5 | -11.5 | 38.5 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.0 | 12 | 16 | 13 | Offense | 25.3 | 6 | 24 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 15.5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 25.8 | 29 | 25 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 9 | 1 | 12 | Houston Texans | 31 | 4 | 26 | 29 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 155 | 88 | 11 | 1,233 | Lee | 96 | 56 | 3 | 702 | |
| Fuller | 38 | 20 | 7 | 352 | Westbrook | 33 | 20 | 1 | 235 | |
| Miller | 23 | 16 | 1 | 148 | Hurns | 51 | 36 | 2 | 446 | |
| Anderson | 46 | 24 | 1 | 338 | Lewis | 42 | 19 | 5 | 265 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tom Savage (HOU QB) – Out (Concussion) / DeAndre Hopkins (HOU WR) – Questionable (Toe) / Allen Hurns (JAX WR) – Out (Ankle) / Leonard Fournette (JAX RB) – Questionable (Quad)
HOU Matchup Rating: 2.0
JAX Matchup Rating: 6.5
Houston Texans
Quarterback: T.J. Yates is going to start for the Texans this week. He played well in relief of Tom Savage last week, but the test is considerably more difficult against the Jaguars in Week 15. Yates will struggle to throw the ball on the road against the league’s best secondary. If you are looking for a punt play at quarterback, Nick Foles is an infinitely better choice than Yates. Steer clear.
Running Backs: If there was a spot for Lamar Miller to break out, it was last week against the 49ers. It didn’t happen. Negative game flow awaits this week against the Jaguars. There’s little upside and tons of risk. No thanks.
Pass Catchers: You can ALWAYS make a case for DeAndre Hopkins. The guy gets tons of targets week in and week out, and he continues to produce even in the toughest of matchups. He ranks second in the league in targets and is virtually matchup-proof. However, if there was ever a spot to fade Hopkins, a road game against Jacksonville’s elite cornerbacks with T.J. Yates at quarterback would be that spot. I will not go anywhere near anyone from this group.
FRIDAY UPDATE – Hopkins is banged up and might draw a questionable tag. That’s another reason to pass on him against a tough secondary.
The Takeaway: Houston has an implied team total of exactly 14 points in this game. That is one of the lowest that I have ever seen, and there’s little reason to take on the risk with any Houston skill players. Jacksonville’s defense is far and away the top overall unit in Week 15.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Blake Bortles has gone from a guy who might lose his job to Chad Henne in Week 1 to the leader of a team that is freight-training toward the playoffs. He has also logged multiple total touchdowns in three straight games, so the numbers are improving. However, this game has a low total of just 39 points, and Jacksonville is a heavy home favorite. The game flow should serve to limit Bortles’ need to throw the ball a lot, and the Jaguars aren’t afraid to take the air out of the ball. I’ll pass, but Bortles does deserve some credit for his recent play and Jacksonville’s current 9-4 record.
Running Backs: Leonard Fournette keeps powering through minor injuries and taking massive workloads on a weekly basis, and he seems to have a new quad injury this week, which kept him out of practice on Wednesday. Keep an eye on this. If Fournette is close to full health and ready to roll for this game, the prospects are good given the projected game flow. In games where Jacksonville is healthy favorites, they generally have no qualms about giving him 25 carries. He logged 119 total yards and a score last week in a difficult matchup against Seattle, and this matchup is more forgiving against a declining Houston team. He had 124 total yards and a score in the first meeting between these teams. Even though Houston’s rush defense numbers aren’t terrible, they are trending in the wrong direction. The game flow and potential opportunity is too good to ignore, assuming Fournette is healthy.
FRIDAY UPDATE – There is legitimate concern about the status of Fournette now. He has not practiced all week. If he is out, Chris Ivory enters the value conversation for the week.
Pass Catchers: Allen Hurns is still not practicing, so we shall continue to treat Marqise Lee and Dede Westbrook as the top two receivers on this squad. Westbrook has a healthy 27 targets over the last three games, and he logged his first NFL touchdown in last week’s win over Seattle. Lee has been the steady option, but he doesn’t have a single 90+ yard game all year. Search for upside with other players, and Westbrook is the higher upside option between the two. The likely game flow which could serve to limit the pass attempts for Blake Bortles is a big concern here.
The Takeaway: The primary options from this game will be Leonard Fournette and the Jaguars defense, and they carry positive correlations so that you can stack them together in GPP formats. Assuming Fournette is healthy, he should be in line for a heavy workload. Dede Westbrook is the highest upside option of the pass catchers, but I worry about limited volume this week.
| Cincinnati Bengals | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 42 | 15.75 | -10.5 | 42 | 26.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.4 | 28 | 25 | 31 | Offense | 23.8 | 13 | 13 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | Opp. Defense | 20.8 | 13 | 8 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5 | 1 | 13 | 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 13 | 27 | 3 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 119 | 65 | 8 | 950 | Thielen | 125 | 80 | 4 | 1,162 | |
| LaFell | 73 | 44 | 3 | 452 | Diggs | 75 | 48 | 5 | 694 | |
| Malone | 13 | 6 | 1 | 63 | Treadwell | 30 | 17 | 0 | 184 | |
| Kroft | 45 | 33 | 5 | 347 | Rudolph | 75 | 53 | 7 | 506 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Joe Mixon (CIN RB) – Questionable (Concussion) / Vontaze Burfict (CIN LB) – Out (Concussion) / Kyle Rudolph (MIN TE) – Doubtful (Ankle)
CIN Matchup Rating: 3.5
MIN Matchup Rating: 5.0
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: Cincinnati’s offense hit the skids last week in an embarrassing home loss to the Bears, and their playoff hopes are dashed at this point. Andy Dalton has had an underwhelming year and is nowhere near the DFS radar in a difficult road matchup against the 10-3 Vikings. There are better options out there.
Running Backs: This spot comes down to health. Joe Mixon returned to practice on Thursday but has not cleared the concussion protocol yet. Giovani Bernard is dealing with a knee issue. Until we know who is in and who is out, this is a tough spot to peg. In a difficult matchup, I will likely avoid the situation if both Mixon and Bernard are active. Check back closer to the weekend for an update here.
Pass Catchers: A.J. Green has the talent to produce in any matchup, but I don’t see the appeal in chasing production against a good shadow corner in Xavier Rhodes. The rest of the Cincinnati pass catchers carry low floors and low ceilings, and that is not what we want to target for DFS purposes. Pass.
The Takeaway: As you can see, I’m definitely not high on the Bengals in this game. Minnesota’s defense is squarely in play as an elite option. There might be some value at running back if Mixon and/or Bernard get ruled out, but it it too early to draw any conclusions as of the time I am writing this section. I will update as appropriate.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Case Keenum continues to steer the steady ship that is the Minnesota offense. Even though they lost against the Panthers last week, they still scored 24 points and put up 356 yards of offense. The Bengals have been ravaged in the secondary and had no answers for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears last week. If the league’s worst pass offense can do damage against the Bengals, Keenum should be just fine. He’s one of the better mid-range quarterback options of the week, and you can bet that he will be criminally under-owned in GPP formats.
Running Backs: This situation remains as stable as it has been for a while, with Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon continuing to split reps in an almost even fashion. It’s hard to get on board with either player. Murray is almost 100% touchdown dependent, and that’s not a risk I am willing to take in Week 15. I prefer some of the other mid-range running backs that I have already discussed. McKinnon is fine as a PPR piece, but he’s not a guy that I am running to get in this matchup. I prefer the passing game targets.
SATURDAY UPDATE – With Burfict out again for Cincinnati, this is an improved matchup. Murray is garnering some momentum, especially if the Vikings can get a lead.
Pass Catchers: Adam Thielen just keeps on humming along. He has posted at least 85 yards receiving in five of the last six games, and he is up to 125 targets and 1,161 receiving yards on the year. He’s quietly been a top five receiver this season. Stefon Diggs has missed time due to injury and has clearly taken a back seat at this point. I still don’t mind Diggs for his potential upside and big play ability, but Thielen is clearly the safer play from this group at this time. The Bengals also rank just 28th in DVOA against tight ends this year, so Kyle Rudolph could find his way back into the end zone. He has been seeing a lot more red zone looks in recent weeks. However, he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to injury, so keep an eye on his status as we get closer to kickoff.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Rudolph is doubtful for this game, so cross him off the list. Thielen and Diggs get bumps for a potential increase in red zone looks.
The Takeaway: The Minnesota passing game interests me quite a bit here. The Bengals got shredded by Mitchell Trubisky and company last week. Case Keenum is in a prime spot for production, and Adam Thielen is a top five receiver option this week. Stefon Diggs can be used in GPP formats, and Kyle Rudolph is very much in play as a mid-range TE option if he ends up playing.
