NFL Grind Down: Week 15
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Denver Broncos | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 40.5 | 21.5 | 2.5 | 40.5 | 19 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.6 | 26 | 20 | 18 | Offense | 16.3 | 30 | 28 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 26.4 | 31 | 29 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 24.2 | 24 | 2 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 24 | 24 | 25 | 20 | Denver Broncos | 11 | 10 | 2 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 118 | 68 | 4 | 771 | Hilton | 84 | 43 | 4 | 811 | |
| Sanders | 83 | 40 | 2 | 487 | Rogers | 26 | 20 | 1 | 226 | |
| Latimer | 27 | 16 | 1 | 227 | Aiken | 40 | 14 | 0 | 131 | |
| Traylor | 11 | 7 | 0 | 86 | Doyle | 85 | 64 | 3 | 564 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
DEN Matchup Rating: 4.0
IND Matchup Rating: 3.5
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: We get the week started with a dud of a Thursday night game. Trevor Siemian has returned to the role as the starting quarterback in Denver, but he is not an attractive fantasy option. Over the last two weeks, he has completed just 53% of his passes despite a pair of decent matchups, while throwing for exactly 200 yards in each game with one total touchdown and three interceptions. Even in a juicy matchup against the Colts, it’s hard to make a case for Siemian as an option in any DFS format other than a Monday/Thursday game where you still need to use a quarterback.
Running Backs: The Broncos have failed to establish a running game all year long, primarily because they lack talent at the position and partially because their offensive line doesn’t do the running backs any favors. C.J. Anderson managed 22 carries with a positive game script last week, but he ran for just 48 yards on those carries and had a long gain of seven yards. That’s not the upside we are seeking in a DFS play. In addition, there is always the risk that Jamaal Charles and/or Devontae Booker get it rolling and steal some snaps. Anderson is not a fantasy option right now.
Pass Catchers: Denver’s wide receivers still come at slight discounts from their early season costs. Demaryius Thomas is the clear #1 right now, as Emmanuel Sanders is playing hurt, and it shows in his production on the field. Thomas logged an 8/93/1 line on 12 targets against the Jets in Week 14, while Sanders had just one catch on four targets. Thomas is the guy you want here, especially since there is very little price difference between the two. The cost is affordable, and Thomas is my favorite play from the Broncos in this game. Denver doesn’t utilize the tight end position much, so there is nothing to see there.
The Takeaway: This will likely be one of the uglier games of the week, and it’s a perfect week to start off by fading the Thursday game in full week contests. I like Demaryius Thomas a good bit, but you can’t talk me into anyone else on the Denver side, despite the favorable matchup.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Denver’s defense woke up last week and shut down the Jets in convincing fashion. It has been a rocky second half of the year for Jacoby Brissett, as defenses have adjusted to his playing style. Last week’s performance can be forgiven thanks in the ridiculous conditions in Buffalo, but that doesn’t change the long-term view that he simply isn’t a quality starting quarterback at the NFL level. Indianapolis has an implied team total of just 18 points in this game. Pass.
Running Backs: The Colts continue to give Frank Gore massive workloads despite his age, but I have real concerns about him here. It’s a short week, and he handled a whopping 36 carries against the Bills. He was very effective in the game, but I am very concerned about him on a short week. Buyer beware. In fact, as you are wrapping up Monday/Thursday contests, I think Marlon Mack is a sneaky option there. Mack provides some upside and a way to be contrarian on a two game slate. I wouldn’t worry about taking either player on the full Week 15 slates.
Pass Catchers: The Colts should look to throw a little more after the weather eliminated the passing game last week. I don’t often pick on Denver’s outside corners, but T.Y. Hilton surely has the upside to break a slate. He’s worth a look in some GPP contests. Jack Doyle is probably my favorite player from the Colts side in this game. He’s generally Brissett’s favorite target, and the Broncos have been weak against tight ends this year (though they have been better lately). Outside of Hilton and Doyle, I won’t be looking here, and even Hilton is a little too risk/reward for my liking. Outside of his two dominant games, he’s been terrible all year.
The Takeaway: Again, this isn’t a game where you want to force exposure. I can see using Marlon Mack as a low-owned option on the Monday/Thursday slate if you are wrapping that up, and Jack Doyle is a reasonable play here, though the Broncos have been better against tight ends of late. The Denver defense is also in play this week.
| Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 44 | 19.25 | -5.5 | 44 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.2 | 29 | 31 | 7 | Offense | 26.0 | 5 | 3 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 28 | 28 | 20 | Opp. Defense | 21.1 | 14 | 9 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 17 | 29 | 17 | 25 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 12 | 19 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Inman | 28 | 17 | 1 | 225 | Tate | 102 | 79 | 4 | 852 | |
| Wright | 64 | 43 | 1 | 477 | Jones | 92 | 51 | 8 | 885 | |
| Bellamy | 30 | 15 | 1 | 227 | Golladay | 32 | 18 | 2 | 340 | |
| Sims | 24 | 13 | 1 | 147 | Ebron | 65 | 42 | 2 | 449 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Adam Shaheen (CHI TE) – Questionable (Chest)
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.0
DET Matchup Rating: 5.5
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: This week marks the introduction of two Saturday games to the NFL schedule, which means there is another two game slate that we can play for DFS! I am not the biggest fan of the two game slates myself, but they do get a lot of interest. Mitchell Trubisky had perhaps his best NFL game last week against the Bengals, and the Bears offense played its best all-around game of the season. He even added a rushing touchdown for good measure on top of his 270 yard day, which also included one passing touchdown. Don’t expect lightning to strike again. This is a good Detroit pass defense, and this game still means a lot to the Lions as they cling to playoff life. Trubisky is not a DFS option, even on the two game slate.
Running Backs: As usual, the refrain rang true last week. When the Bears have a game with positive game flow, Jordan Howard is capable of putting up huge numbers. When the Bears fall behind, he becomes relatively worthless. Last week was the former, and Howard put up a dominant 23 carry, 147 yard, two touchdown performance. I worry about the game flow here with Chicago sitting as five point road underdogs, and Howard isn’t the safest of cash game plays, but he is an option on the two game slates simply because there aren’t a lot of players to choose from. If the Bears happen to get a lead early, his prospects are much brighter. He really needs to work on his passing game skills in the offseason, but until then, he will remain a guy with a lot of risk.
Pass Catchers: Dontrelle Inman was looking like the preferred wide receiver option on the Bears these days, but Kendall Wright woke up from a slumber and posted a 10/107 line on 11 targets last week. It’s hard to get excited about any of these guys. Adam Shaheen deserves more snaps at tight end as the Bears play out the string, and he had a solid 4/44/1 day against the Bengals. However, he still played on just 42% of the offensive snaps. He’s a deep GPP option on the short two game Saturday slate, but I won’t consider him anywhere else.
The Takeaway: The Bears are not a team we want to target heavily, even on the two game Saturday slate. The Lions defense is very much in play, as they have a must win game here at home. If you think the Bears might be able to grab a lead, Jordan Howard can be considered as a running back option. Outside of him, it’s really hard to make a case for anyone from this group.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford continues to fight through a combination of minor injuries, and there was reason to believe that he was operating at far less than 100% last week with his injured hand. It didn’t show with his play on the field, though, as Stafford tossed for 381 yards while completing 36 of 44 passes in the overtime win over Tampa Bay. However, he did throw a pair of interceptions, and Theo Riddick vultured a pair of short touchdown runs. This is an average matchup against the Bears, and I do prefer the two quarterbacks from the other Saturday game. However, the Lions will continue to throw the ball plenty, and Stafford can certainly get there. If you want a quarterback from this game, Stafford is your guy.
Running Backs: Ameer Abdullah is most likely going to return this week, and that really muddies up the backfield situation here. Theo Riddick has played fairly well over the last two games, though last week’s result was primarily attributable to the touchdowns. He didn’t do much with just 2.9 yards per carry. Abdullah should reclaim the early down role, while Riddick resumes more of a passing down presence. Tion Green and Zach Zenner will also fight for snaps. I can see using Abdullah or Riddick in tournaments on the two game slate, but I will likely leave this spot alone in full week contests.
Pass Catchers: The primary benefit of targeting Detroit’s pass catchers is that a lot of the targets generally funnel through two players in Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. That wasn’t the case last week, though, as Jones was largely silent while Tate and the surprising Eric Ebron had big games. Ebron had 10 catches for 94 yards last week, but he came into that game with just 32 catches on the season. I’m not going to buy into one big game, especially since there are other viable tight ends in the other Saturday game. Even if you are playing the two game slate, you can find a better option. Tate was largely quiet in the first meeting against the Bears, while Jones logged a 4/85/1 line in that game. I still give Tate a slight edge on full PPR sites like DraftKings and FantasyDraft, but Jones is my preferred target on FanDuel.
The Takeaway: The Detroit side of this game is much more viable. Even though he is playing hurt, Matthew Stafford continues to put up respectable numbers. His primary pass catchers in Tate and Jones are also in play here. The running game is hard to peg, but Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick are reasonable cost options that can be considered on the short two game slate, especially in GPP formats.
| Los Angeles Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46 | 23.75 | 1.5 | 46 | 22.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.9 | 15 | 4 | 24 | Offense | 25.3 | 6 | 8 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.2 | 15 | 27 | 30 | Opp. Defense | 17.3 | 2 | 3 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 26 | 11 | 31 | 11 | Los Angeles Chargers | 3 | 16 | 6 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Allen | 129 | 83 | 5 | 1,143 | Hill | 92 | 64 | 6 | 986 | |
| Williams | 52 | 32 | 3 | 580 | Wilson | 41 | 28 | 3 | 356 | |
| Benjamin | 51 | 29 | 3 | 464 | Robinson | 29 | 17 | 0 | 181 | |
| Henry | 59 | 42 | 4 | 551 | Kelce | 107 | 73 | 7 | 945 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
LAC Matchup Rating: 6.5
KC Matchup Rating: 6.0
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback: The second Saturday game is the one that should feature a little more fantasy excitement. After the Chargers got off to an awful start in 2017, they have now won four games in a row and sit squarely in the playoff race at 7-6. This game is for first place in the AFC West, and we should see Philip Rivers get every opportunity to continue his recent run of production. Over his last three games, Rivers has put up the following totals:
76-for-107 (71% completions), 1,097 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT
That’s pretty darn good for a three game stretch. It is worth noting that he did struggle in the first meeting between these teams, but that was when the Chargers were in the midst of their awful start to the year. This is a different team now, and even though the Chiefs will be getting Marcus Peters back, Rivers is squarely in play as a top quarterback on the Saturday slate.
Running Backs: As I have stated in several of these articles this year, Melvin Gordon simply gets there via his ridiculously high volume. He has logged at least 20 total touches in five straight games, and the Chiefs present a positive matchup. They have struggled against the run for much of the season. Gordon is the safest running back play from the Saturday games, but his lack of explosiveness means he is an interesting GPP fade. I won’t fade him entirely, but you can make a case for it, especially if you like Jordan Howard or either of the Detroit running backs.
Pass Catchers: The surge from Philip Rivers has been good news for Keenan Allen, who has been scorching hot over the last month and a half. He has posted four straight 100+ yard receiving games, scoring four touchdowns in that span. Allen is simply too talented to be quiet for extended stretches, so the breakout is no surprise. Like most of the other players in this passing attack, he struggled in the first meeting between these two teams, but I’m fine going back to the well with his recent surge. Darrelle Revis actually played pretty well last week, so this isn’t the best of matchups for the Los Angeles passing attack, especially with Peters back in the fold. However, this unit has been unstoppable of late. Tyrell Williams has big play upside and is a fine tournament option, while Hunter Henry is a high upside option at tight end. If you can’t quite get up to Kelce on the Saturday slate, Henry is a fine pivot.
The Takeaway: It has been all systems go with the Chargers of late, and they should be able to keep that rolling to some degree. There is some cause for concern given that the Chiefs tend to play much better at home, and this will be a tough environment to play in for the Chargers in a night game on the road. However, on the short Saturday slates, guys like Rivers, Gordon, Allen, Henry, and even Tyrell Williams are very much in play. This is a high upside offense, and we generally know where the production will come from.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: Alex Smith was snake-bitten last week. One touchdown was overturned on replay. Another couple touchdowns were wide open misses. He very easily could have thrown for three touchdowns in the game, but instead he ended up with zero. He still had a decent yardage day, though. It would not surprise me to see Smith, Rivers, and Stafford carry relatively equal ownership on the Saturday slate. I am generally not an Alex Smith truther, and I don’t pick on the Los Angeles pass defense a whole lot. I prefer Rivers on the other side of this game, but Smith does benefit from being the guy who is playing at home. All told, I will have some Smith exposure, but I have a few reservations about it.
Running Backs: Kareem Hunt finally rediscovered the end zone last week, scoring for the first time since the Stone Age. He logged 25 carries last week compared to just three for Charcandrick West, though West did vulture a touchdown. This remains Hunt’s backfield, and the Chargers are much more vulnerable on the ground. Whereas they rank a solid sixth in DVOA against the pass, they rank just 26th against the run. This is a prime spot for Hunt to continue to recover from his mid-season malaise, and I think he will get plenty of touches in a very important game. It’s tough to trust Andy Reid, but Hunt is my favorite running back on the Saturday slate.
Pass Catchers: Travis Kelce saw a whopping 13 targets last week against the Raiders, and by all accounts he should have had a much bigger game than he ended up with. He was the unfortunate pass catcher who had a touchdown overturned on replay, and he couldn’t connect with Smith on what could have amounted to a few more big plays. Kelce has undoubtedly been the top tight end in the NFL this season, surpassing guys like Gronkowski and Ertz, who have struggled to stay on the field for various reasons. Kansas City will likely struggle to throw outside against a good Charger secondary, making Kelce the ideal target in this game. He had just one catch in the first meeting, but I would expect a lot more this time around. Tyreek Hill has game-breaking upside, but he carries a little more risk in a difficult matchup. He did score in the first meeting, and his upside keeps him on the GPP radar.
The Takeaway: This is a huge game in the AFC playoff race, and I look forward to watching it on Saturday night. Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce are my priority plays from the Chiefs, and Alex Smith is certainly in play at quarterback. Tyreek Hill carries a little more risk in a difficult matchup, but he obviously still has upside. Albert Wilson might be an okay punt play on the two game Saturday slate after his 5/72 line last week, but otherwise there’s no reason to go outside of the core plays for Kansas City. Their offense generally revolves around a small group of players.
| Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.2 | 24 | 19 | 29 | Offense | 18.5 | 23 | 32 | 6 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.3 | 16 | 12 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 24.5 | 26 | 11 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 4 | 32 | 4 | 19 | Miami Dolphins | 15 | 26 | 8 | 27 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 131 | 88 | 8 | 745 | Benjamin | 66 | 39 | 3 | 575 | |
| Parker | 67 | 40 | 1 | 454 | Jones | 68 | 25 | 2 | 291 | |
| Stills | 86 | 50 | 6 | 751 | Thompson | 56 | 31 | 2 | 425 | |
| Thomas | 58 | 39 | 3 | 373 | Clay | 47 | 34 | 2 | 389 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kelvin Benjamin (BUF WR) – Questionable (Knee)
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.5
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: The Dolphins are coming off an impressive Monday night win over the Patriots, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive in a watered-down AFC. The loser of this game will see their playoff chances take a big hit, so expect a focused game plan from both teams. Playing quarterbacks in the winter in Buffalo is a risky proposition, as we saw last week when the great blizzard of 2017 hit Orchard Park. I would not expect Jay Cutler to provide anything close to a massive performance against a solid defense, and much of Miami’s production has been on the heels of the breakout from Kenyan Drake (more on that below). In any case, good weather or bad, Cutler is not on my DFS radar in Week 15.
Running Backs: Following the trade of Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins employed a tandem backfield with Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams, but it was Drake who showed more potential on a weekly basis. The injury to Williams has opened the door for Drake, and he has busted it open in a big way. Drake has 234 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards over the last two games. That’s dynamic production from a player who was an afterthought heading into the 2017 season. Although Drake is starting to see his price rise across the DFS industry, he’s still not overly expensive. Buffalo is allowing 124 yards per game on the ground, and they have given up an NFL-worst 18 rushing touchdowns this year. If Miami wants to win this game, giving Drake 20+ touches is their best hope of doing it. I am comfortable rolling with him in all formats, regardless of Williams’ status.
Pass Catchers: Although many expected DeVante Parker to get a boost with Cutler under center this year, it simply hasn’t translated into reliable production. Drake was the team’s leading receiver last week. Jarvis Landry continues to see a ton of targets and is a reliable option in PPR formats, but that’s where my interest begins and ends. Again, I am much higher on the running game here.
The Takeaway: Play Kenyan Drake. He should get a ton of carries after his incredible performances over the last two games, and Buffalo is much more vulnerable on the ground. The only other player remotely on my radar is Jarvis Landry, and he doesn’t necessarily possess a ton of upside.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Buffalo somehow pulled out a win in last week’s blizzard despite having the game quarterbacked by Nathan Peterman and Joe Webb. They were lucky to escape that one with a “W” and will look to keep pace in the AFC Wild Card race with a win here. Tyrod Taylor practiced in full on Wednesday and appears to be on track to play, which is welcome news for the Bills. Taylor does have some DFS upside with his legs, but I can’t trust a running quarterback that is coming off a knee injury. Miami’s defense has also been rejuvenated of late, and they shut down Tom Brady on Monday. There are better quarterback options out there on the full week slates.
Running Backs: The reason Buffalo won last week was because of LeSean McCoy. He had a massive game against the Colts, including the game-winning touchdown scamper in overtime as part of a 32 carry, 156 yard performance. He has been added to the injury report this week, but it seems like an early week precaution at this point. His pass catching ability should come in handy in this game, provided that we do not see another snow storm this week. His safe volume on a weekly basis combined with the fact that this is a huge game in the playoff race keeps McCoy near the top of the running back list. Keep an eye on his injury status. Assuming it does not escalate, there’s no reason he has to be avoided in this game.
Pass Catchers: The Bills rank 31st in the league in passing yards, and they are just 12 yards ahead of the mighty Bears, who are currently occupying the basement. That’s not great company. Kelvin Benjamin got hurt last week and cannot be relied upon right now. The team can’t decide who their #2 wide receiver is. As always, this group can be avoided.
The Takeaway: It’s all about the rushing attacks in this game. Assuming McCoy does not have a serious injury, he’s squarely in play as a top five running back option. I will avoid the passing game given Miami’s recent defensive improvement and the fact that Buffalo’s quarterback and top wide receiver remain banged up. Tyrod Taylor is hard to trust in his first game back from a knee injury.