NFL Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-10-01 14:04:03

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Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets

Seattle Seahawks						New York Jets
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.3	28	13	15		Offense	20.7	23	23	7
Opp. Defense	26.0	21	23	3		Opp. Defense	12.3	2	2	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Jets	23	4	24	20		Seattle Seahawks	3	9	1	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Baldwin	27	20	2	276		Marshall	27	12	0	160
Kearse	15	9	0	79		Decker	21	9	2	194
Lockett	12	7	0	116		Enunwa	25	17	1	183
Willson	8	5	0	41		Davis	1	0	0	0

Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Thomas Rawls (SEA RB) – Out (Fibula) / Jimmy Graham (SEA TE) – Questionable but fully expected to play (Knee) / Eric Decker (NYJ WR) – Out (Shoulder)
SEA Matchup Rating: 5.0
NYJ Matchup Rating: 2.5

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback: Speaking of low totals, we have an NFL rarity with a total of just 39 ½ points in this projected defensive slugfest with the Seahawks and Jets. In somewhat of a shocking statistic, the Jets rank dead last in the league in yards per attempt allowed at 9.7 through three games. Big plays have been a problem, and Darrelle Revis is no longer an elite NFL cornerback. The Seattle offense got back on track against the 49ers, and their team total does seem a bit low here. Russell Wilson has a reasonable price tag and can be used in GPPs this week, though the low team total will keep me off him in cash games.

Running Backs: Thomas Rawls is going to miss extended time for Seattle, which will open the door for Christine Michael to continue his recent breakout. He carried the ball 20 times for 106 yards against San Francisco, and he scored the first two touchdowns of his NFL career in the game. He saw almost every carry before the game got out of hand, and he is still relatively affordable in DFS. This is not the week to take him, though, against a stout Jets front seven which ranks third in rushing yards allowed and third in yards per carry allowed so far in 2016. His role gives him some safety and stability if you want to go there for cash games, but there are better options on the board.

Pass Catchers: The Doug Baldwin breakout of 2015 was one of the most unexpected events of the year, and the breakout continues. He caught eight passes for a whopping 164 yards and a touchdown last week against San Francisco. He will likely see a lot of Revis in this game, but that’s not a concern these days. In addition, Jimmy Graham has had a rebirth of sorts, as he busted out of a lengthy injury/slump with 100 receiving yards of his own last week. I don’t love this matchup, but Baldwin and Graham are in play. The other low-upside Seattle receivers aren’t worth your time here.

The Takeaway: This game has the lowest total of the week, so don’t get carried away. Russell Wilson, Christine Michael, and Doug Baldwin are all “okay” options, but they are definitely far from must plays against a good Jets defense that is especially strong against the run. If I had to do anything, it would be some sneaky Wilson/Baldwin GPP stacks to exploit a declining Darrelle Revis.

New York Jets

Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick threw six interceptions last week against the Chiefs. He faces the Seahawks this week. No.

Running Backs: I am afraid that Matt Forte’s heavy workload is eventually going to catch up to him, but it’s hard to deny how well he is playing right now. He backed up his 100 yard, three touchdown performance against the Bills with a 4.3 YPC average last week, though his totals weren’t great in a game where the Jets fell behind and Fitzpatrick threw six picks. I won’t be playing Forte this week in a tough matchup.

Pass Catchers: Brandon Marshall is banged up, and Eric Decker is not nearly cheap enough for me to consider in a matchup against the Seahawks, especially when you factor in the low team total for the Jets. No.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Eric Decker has been ruled out with a shoulder injury and could miss significant time. This does upgrade Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa, but I will still avoid this entire receiving corps.

The Takeaway: I won’t be looking at too much from the Jets this week, if you couldn’t figure that out already. Seattle’s defense, as always, is in play as a top-end unit in DFS.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills						New England Patriots
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.7	15	31	9		Offense	27.0	5	27	1
Opp. Defense	15.0	5	19	11		Opp. Defense	22.7	17	24	15
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	15	11	18	19		Buffalo Bills	8	24	31	2
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Watkins	11	6	0	63		Edelman	24	18	0	180
Woods	15	11	0	81		Amendola	10	9	2	121
Salas	6	4	1	89		Hogan	13	8	1	122
Clay	12	7	0	67		Gronkowski	1	0	0	0

Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Sammy Watkins (BUF WR) – Out (Foot) / Charles Clay (BUF TE) – Questionable (Knee) / Jimmy Garoppolo (NE QB) – Questionable but expected to start (Shoulder) / Jacoby Brissett (NE QB) – Questionable (Thumb) / Rob Gronkowski (NE TE) – Questionable (Hamstring)

BUF Matchup Rating: 4.0
NE Matchup Rating: 6.5

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback: How about this New England team? They just keep winning football games, and they are coming off an impressive shutout of the Texans. Their pass defense ranks are average at best, but a lot of that is due to their opponents going pass-happy because the Patriots get such big leads. Of course, that might happen again this week. Still, I’m not going to roll out Tyrod Taylor in any format. He’s not cheap enough to consider him a value play, and it makes no sense to look his way in the mid range with other safer quarterbacks available. A road game against New England is no easy task. Just ask Brock Osweiler.

Running Backs: LeSean McCoy continues to get a heavy work load in the Buffalo backfield, and he is playing on almost 84% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps. That is a fantastic rate for a running back these days, and he is making those snaps count. He scored a pair of touchdowns in the Week 3 win over Arizona, and he is going to be relied upon extensively with Sammy Watkins nowhere near 100%. New England ranks just 22nd in yards per carry allowed this year, and McCoy is a capable receiver if the Bills are forced to the air late. He is “game flow proof,” and that makes him a solid DFS option despite the opponent.

Pass Catchers: Sammy Watkins remains hobbled and may or may not play. That clouds the picture for the entire group of pass catchers. Who else are we going to target, anyway? Robert Woods? No thanks.

The Takeaway: LeSean McCoy once again is the only feasible option in this Buffalo offense. He made it count with a 17-110-2 line last week, and he will be called upon here this week if the Bills want any chance of keeping this game competitive.

New England Patriots

Quarterback: As of the time I am writing this, I have no idea who will be the Patriots’ quarterback this week. The team is “hopeful” that Jimmy Garoppolo will be ready, but I am also “hopeful” that I will win a million dollars this week. That doesn’t mean that is going to happen. I probably won’t go here in any case, but I will add an update to the article when we know more.

Running Backs: If you would have told me prior to the start of the season that LeGarrette Blount would lead the league in rushing yards through three weeks, I would have likely laughed in your face. However, there should have been some inkling of this. The Patriots were obviously going to turn to a run-heavy approach with Tom Brady suspended, and they have been fortunate enough to get comfortable leads in every game. Blount adds nothing in the passing game and is entirely too expensive on FanDuel, but he remains cheap at $5,000 on DraftKings. The full PPR format is the problem there, plus there is risk if the Patriots happen to fall behind. That hasn’t happened yet, so I get it if you don’t want to abandon ship. Tread carefully. Everything needs to break his way for him to flash fantasy upside, and it has so far.

Pass Catchers: Rob Gronkowski was held to a bagel last week in his return, though he played very limited snaps. His price is starting to come down everywhere, and he will likely be close to full strength next week when Tom Brady returns (hint: you might want to play him then). This isn’t that week – I will be holding out for seven more days. Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola have put up decent numbers when Garoppolo has been in there, and they could be in play if Garoppolo is healthy enough to start. There’s risk in all of them, though, especially if Gronkowski starts to get more snaps and targets this week.

SATURDAY UPDATE – With Garoppolo expected to start, the pass catchers get a boost. Edelman would be my favorite target of the bunch with Gronkowski still not at 100%.

The Takeaway: Part of the conclusion depends on who is playing quarterback. If It is Garoppolo, the receivers do get a boost. If the Patriots continue to play with leads, LeGarrette Blount should continue to feast for his fantasy owners. If the game script flips, though, we could have problems. There is a lot of risk/reward potential with this team, but we could very well see a similar game script to prior weeks with a 27-13 type victory for the Pats.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers						Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	50.5	26.75				3	50.5	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.3	12	15	3		Offense	34.7	1	4	5
Opp. Defense	30.3	28	28	22		Opp. Defense	23.3	18	4	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	31	30	22	31		Carolina Panthers	10	14	2	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	22	13	3	199		Jones	20	10	2	188
Ginn	12	6	0	118		Sanu	17	11	1	130
Funchess	10	3	1	28		Hardy	7	4	2	34
Olsen	27	18	1	259		Tamme	20	14	1	154

Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Jonathan Stewart (CAR RB) – Out (Hamstring)

CAR Matchup Rating: 8.0
ATL Matchup Rating: 5.5

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback: Cam Newton was not good last week against the Vikings, but Minnesota has quietly become one of the best defenses in the entire league. Despite the off day that included no touchdown passes and three interceptions, Newton still showed off his remarkable fantasy floor by scoring a touchdown on the ground. Things should go much better this week as the Panthers play indoors on turf against a mediocre Atlanta defense. Newton should be considered the top overall quarterback on the board this week, though you aren’t getting a discount on him anywhere.

Running Backs: Jonathan Stewart is expected to sit out once again this week, which will leave the backfield to a committee that includes Cameron Artis-Payne and Fozzy Whittaker, with Mike Tolbert mixed in as well. The snap distribution last week was 35 for Whittaker, 31 for Artis-Payne, and 17 for Tolbert. Combine that with the fact that Newton is just as likely to run one in when the team gets in the red zone, and you have a clear stay-away situation in DFS.

Pass Catchers: After dominating the targets through the first two weeks, Kelvin Benjamin somehow saw just one target against the Vikings, putting up a bagel in the process. He’s not that bad, obviously, but we probably need to lower expectations a little bit. It’s easy to get carried away with the hype after a couple of good games. Greg Olsen is still a dependable week-to-week option for production at a generally unpredictable tight end spot. The other receiver spots are entirely too inconsistent to count on, which limits my interest in guys like Corey Brown, Ted Ginn, and Devin Funchess.

The Takeaway: Cam Newton should get back on track in this one. Kelvin Benjamin’s long-term production will likely fall somewhere in between his output from the first two weeks and last week, but he is still a high-upside guy that you can play on his own or with Newton as part of a mini stack. The rest of the team is unpredictable outside of Greg Olsen. Much of the production on this team comes from the quarterback, as he is also the most likely guy to get a rushing touchdown, especially in the absence of Jonathan Stewart.

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback: Matt Ryan banged up his thumb in Monday’s win over the Saints, but the team has confirmed that he will be fine. The issue here is the matchup. Much was made over Carolina’s inexperienced cornerbacks heading into this season, but they have let their play do the talking on the field. Carolina has allowed the fifth fewest passing yards in the league, and this is definitely the toughest matchup that Matt Ryan has faced yet. Ryan is fourth in the league in passing yards, but this is not the week to overpay for him.

Running Backs: Boy, does Atlanta have an embarrassment of riches at the running back spot. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman make up a dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield, and they are splitting reps pretty much straight down the middle. Freeman has been more effective, as he ranks fifth in the league in rushing. However, it was Coleman who found the end zone three times on Monday. Not to be outdone, Freeman racked up one touchdown of his own (in the passing game) to go along with 152 rushing yards and 55 receiving yards. The time share is scary, but their prices have not been adjusted to reflect their recent performances. I prefer Freeman for his generally greater upside. He outscored Coleman in fantasy points last week despite scoring two fewer touchdowns. Just remember, though, that this is a tough matchup. Freeman is better served as a GPP option in this spot.

Pass Catchers: If I would have told you before Monday’s game that the Falcons would put up 45 points against the Saints and that Julio Jones would finish the game with one catch for 16 yards, you would have either told me that I was absolutely nuts or you would have assumed that he got injured. Somehow, this happened despite neither of those things happening. Matt Ryan did a fantastic job of spreading the ball around, especially considering that Mohamed Sanu left early with an injury. I wouldn’t expect a similar fate here against a good Carolina defense, and Jones will likely return to being the focal point of the passing game. I am not going to overpay for him this week and will be avoiding the Atlanta passing attack.

The Takeaway: The only Atlanta player I am truly interested in is Devonta Freeman, and that is in a GPP-only setting with this unfavorable matchup. He is thriving despite splitting snaps with Tevin Coleman, and his price on FanDuel and DraftKings has yet to adjust for his recent performance.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Oakland Raiders						Baltimore Ravens
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	46.5	21.75				-3	46.5	24.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.7	8	11	2		Offense	19.0	24	18	26
Opp. Defense	14.7	4	3	8		Opp. Defense	26.3	22	32	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Baltimore Ravens	5	7	9	9		Oakland Raiders	30	25	32	23
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cooper	29	15	0	270		Wallace	18	10	3	166
Crabtree	25	19	1	220		Smith	26	16	0	170
Roberts	16	7	2	71		Aiken	4	3	0	19
Smith	5	5	0	28		Pitta	24	18	0	183

Notable Injuries and Suspensions: Kamar Aiken (BAL WR) – Questionable (Thigh) / Elvis Dumervil (BAL LB) – Questionable but expected to play (Foot)

OAK Matchup Rating: 4.5
BAL Matchup Rating: 7.5

Oakland Raiders

Quarterback: Derek Carr wasn’t at his best against Tennessee, but he did enough to help get the Raiders their second win of the year. This will be their toughest test yet, as they travel to Baltimore to face the unbeaten Ravens. This Ravens squad is hard to get a read on, as they have played three teams that have a combined 1-8 record and barely beat the winless Browns and Jaguars, though both were on the road. They currently rank third in the league in pass defense, and I respect them enough to generally avoid offensive players against them unless the opponent is very good. That likely keeps Carr out of consideration for me this week, though he is a semi-intriguing GPP option. I just don’t see enough upside in this one.

Running Backs: Latavius Murray was hailed as that “not very good” back that had fantasy value because of his clear-cut lead back role heading into the season. Well, the not very good part still applies, but the clear-cut role does not. Murray has played less than 50% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks now, as Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington have started to cut into his playing time. This three-headed backfield is a situation to avoid for now, and I’m of the belief that Washington could end up being the best of the bunch.

Pass Catchers: Despite the loud chatter about this being the breakout year for Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree continues to hold his own for the Raiders in the pass-catching department. He led the team with eight catches for 102 yards (on 11 targets) last week against Tennessee, while Cooper had a pedestrian 4/62 line on nine targets. I am a Cooper supporter, but for the last year and a half, their production has been nearly identical, and Crabtree always comes cheaper. This isn’t a great matchup against that Baltimore pass defense, but a majority of the targets go to those two guys, which puts them in play based on volume.

The Takeaway: It appears as though the Ravens defense is once again a strength, as they are playing well despite not having Elvis Dumervil active for a single game yet. They have not allowed more than 20 points in any game this year, and that is a big reason why they are 3-0. The Raiders have limited appeal in a tough road matchup, and Baltimore’s defense is an interesting GPP target given a likely low ownership.

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback: Although the Ravens are undefeated, it’s been a typical up-and-down start for Joe Flacco. He looked pretty much terrible last week against Jacksonville, almost blowing the game with two fourth quarter interceptions. The fascination over whether or not he is “elite” is very weird (he’s not), but he’s almost never a reliable fantasy target because of his low floor and limited upside. Oakland ranks dead last against the pass so far this year, so it may be tempting to consider Flacco. Don’t do it. This is coming from a Baltimore fan.

Running Backs: Justin Forsett has out-snapped Terrance West 118 to 68 so far this year, and he is gradually taking a few more snaps every week. The production just hasn’t been there, though, as he ran for just 20 yards on seven carries last week. He caught six passes, but he only turned those in to 12 receiving yards. Yes, that’s 32 total yards on 11 touches. That’s not a good ratio. We still can’t trust anyone in this backfield.

Pass Catchers: This may be where you want to look for a fantasy option, though nobody is going to be a “safe” play. The total snap counts for the year include 147 for Mike Wallace, 138 for Steve Smith, 90 for Kamar Aiken, 78 for Breshad Perriman, and 65 for Chris Moore. The highest guy is only at 70% of offensive snaps played. That’s not a great number. Wallace would seem to make logical sense as a GPP option because of his big play ability and low floor, while Smith seems like the safer play in cash games. Dennis Pitta disappointed last week as a chalk tight end play a week after getting 12 targets, but he still saw eight targets against the Jaguars. He is in play once again.

The Takeaway: You can’t trust Joe Flacco or the running game, but you may want to look for a pass catcher against Oakland’s bottom ranked pass defense. Mike Wallace is a sensible GPP option for his boom-or-bust big play ability, while Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta are safer options for cash games.

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