NFL Grind Down: Week 6 - Page Three
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans
| Miami Dolphins | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | LP Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 43 | 20.25 | -2.5 | 43 | 22.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.3 | 31 | 25 | 31 | Offense | 25.5 | 8 | 27 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.8 | 18 | 1 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 20 | 11 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | Miami Dolphins | 5 | 10 | 13 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 47 | 28 | 0 | 318 | Wright | 26 | 16 | 2 | 256 | |
| Matthews | 26 | 17 | 3 | 278 | Douglas | 19 | 8 | 1 | 64 | |
| Stills | 16 | 8 | 1 | 101 | Hunter | 12 | 8 | 0 | 112 | |
| Cameron | 28 | 12 | 0 | 170 | Walker | 19 | 14 | 1 | 147 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
MIA Matchup Rating: 3.0
TEN Matchup Rating: 5.5
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: The Dolphins have a new head coach, and while he was a member of the offensive coaching staff prior to Joe Philbin’s dismissal, it’s still unclear what we can expect from his team during this transitional period. He has said the team doesn’t expect to make changes from what they’ve had success with on offense, but… what exactly did they have success with on offense? Ryan Tannehill (FD $7,700, DK $5,700) has thrown five interceptions in his last two starts, and while he’s also got his fair share of touchdowns, he’s not leading an explosive or efficient passing offense. The Titans are surprisingly good against the pass, ranking third in DVOA against the throw, and tenth in numberFire’s data. However, they’ve not exactly faced a ton of tough competition this season, and did allow multiple touchdowns from every quarterback they’ve faced. Tannehill is a tournament flier, but not one I’m going out of my way to roster.
Running Game: If an interim head coach who is a recently retired tight end isn’t the way to get Lamar Miller (FD $6,400, DK $4,300) more carries in this offense, he either never will, or just doesn’t deserve them despite what appears to be a solid all-around skill set. The Miami back has seen his touches decline as the season has gone on, and with his team on the wrong side of two embarrassing losses in his last two games, he just never had a chance to get things going. This week, the Dolphins face a Tennessee defense that allowed Frank Gore to score twice, and gave up over 100 total yards and a touchdown to the Cleveland backfield. This is a good spot to take another chance on Miller, but do so based on his talent and the hope for a more balanced scheme, and not because he’s the type of volume back we’d prefer to target in DFS.
Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry (FD $7,300, DK $6,200) is going to get ten or more targets in this game. They’ll likely all be short and won’t generate a ton of excitement, but they’ll come against a bad slot corner in Coty Sensabaugh (per PFF). He’s the team leader in red zone targets by a wide margin, with twice as many looks inside the opponent’s 20 as Jordan Cameron (FD $5,400, DK $3,000). Cameron is still a fine play, as his position coach and a former player at his position has now taken over the team, and will definitely keep him involved, if not give him a bit of a boost in the offense. He’s talented and has the trust of his quarterback, and should be rested and healthy after a bye week. Rishard Matthews (FD $6,300, DK $4,200) struggled against a tough Jets defense, but was seeing a healthy amount of targets in the three prior games, and has big play potential. But his price jumped a bit too high for my liking, and his role is uncertain with veteran wideouts waiting to take his place should he stumble again.
The Takeaway: The Titans are better against the pass than the run, which would be great news for Miller if we could trust his workload. The running back is a risky tournament option, as are any players in the passing game against a surprising Tennessee pass defense that may be due for a regression.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Marcus Mariota (FD $7,200, DK $5,800) started the season in impressive fashion with eight touchdowns in his first three games, but the Bills proved to be a bit too tough of a matchup for the rookie quarterback, and he experienced his first setback as a professional quarterback. This week he’ll take on a much easier Miami defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass, and that lacks depth in terms of talent in the secondary. Brent Grimes is a very good corner, but he can’t cover everyone, so Mariota should find open receivers against the other cover men for the Dolphins. However, his price is on par with some of the week’s better options (He’s in between Sam Bradford and Andy Dalton on DraftKings), so there’s no need to target him outside of a tournament lineup or two.
Running Game: Mariota was the team’s leading rusher in Week 5 against the Bills. Miami is a weak run defense, but the Titans don’t have a running back we can target. Antonio Andrews (FD $5,400, DK $3,400) appears to be the goal-line back, but his production outside of the touchdowns leaves a lot to be desired. Ignore this situation altogether.
Pass Catchers: The receiving situation isn’t much better from a fantasy perspective, as the targets are spread thin across an offense that doesn’t have a ton of talent, anyway. Delanie Walker (FD $5,400, DK $3,600) is the most likely recipient of 8-10 targets, but his decently high floor is paired with a low ceiling. If you want to roll with Mariota, play him without a receiving target, as no one else stands out from this bunch.
The Takeaway: Marcus Mariota has a decent matchup against a flailing Miami defense, but there’s no obvious partner to pair him with from the Tennessee offense. Don’t let that discourage you from using the former Oregon product, as it’s just a byproduct of a balanced offense without a ton of transcendent talent. The Titans are an interesting cheap defensive option, as well.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
| Carolina Panthers | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:05 p.m. | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 41 | 17.25 | -6.5 | 41 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.0 | 6 | 31 | 17 | Offense | 22.2 | 18 | 22 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 17.8 | 4 | 16 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14 | 3 | 8 | 28 | Carolina Panthers | 4 | 19 | 7 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 10 | 6 | 1 | 85 | Baldwin | 27 | 23 | 2 | 268 | |
| Ginn | 25 | 12 | 3 | 206 | Kearse | 23 | 18 | 1 | 274 | |
| Funchess | 12 | 3 | 0 | 38 | Lockett | 17 | 12 | 0 | 139 | |
| Olsen | 34 | 17 | 2 | 243 | Graham | 28 | 21 | 2 | 204 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jerricho Cotchery (CAR, Probable), Marshawn Lynch (SEA, Questionable)
CAR Matchup Rating: 2.0
SEA Matchup Rating: 4.5
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Despite growing up as a fan of a division rival of the Panthers, I am definitely a Cam Newton (FD $8,000, DK $6,700) apologist. However, I can’t recommend him this week against Seattle. His price is fair considering his early season output, but it leaves no room for error in a matchup where he’ll be unlikely to get things going on the ground, and more likely to make mistakes with his arm. He’s not worthy of deletion from your cheat sheet, but just move him closer to the bottom of the quarterback ranks.
Running Game: The Carolina running backs, however, are worthy of deletion from your cheat sheet. No running back has found the end zone against Seattle this year, and while James Starks and Giovani Bernard did have decent rushing performances, those backs don’t set a precedent for success for the veteran Jonathan Stewart (FD $6,100, DK $3,900). Seattle are a top run defense, and while Carolina will likely try to establish the run, it’s very unlikely to turn out well for them.
Pass Catchers: Greg Olsen (FD $6,300, DK $5,500) is a smart play against a defense that struggles to defend tight ends, especially since he’s also the Panthers’ best option in the passing game. Otherwise, stay away from this receiving corps, which will struggle to get open against the talented Seattle defense.
The Takeaway: Greg Olsen is the perfect player to take advantage of the one obvious flaw in the Seattle defense, but otherwise, you can downgrade or ignore the rest of the Carolina offense.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: The Seahawks are big favorites, and have the better defense in this game, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to have an easy time against the Panthers. Russell Wilson (FD $8,000, DK $6,500) will face a pass defense that ranks fourth according to Football Outsiders and second according to numberFire. Quarterbacks don’t find a lot of success running against this defense, either, which takes away Wilson’s alternative route to points. With Luke Kuechly returning to help keep an eye on Wilson, this is a matchup to avoid for the Seattle signal caller.
Running Game: Marshawn Lynch (FD $8,300, DK $6,900) is matchup proof, and seems to be ready to go after a brief absence due to injury. Keep an eye for any last-minute changes to his status, but if he’s good to go for this weekend, fire him up in any format. The Seattle running game hasn’t been up to expectations yet this season, but that doesn’t mean Lynch can’t go over 100 yards and punch in a touchdown or two against a defense ranked 21st against the run according to DVOA. Doug Martin and Charles Sims gashed this run defense in Week 4, and even with Kuechly back, I expect to see more of the same from Lynch in Week 6.
Pass Catchers: The Panthers have allowed the fewest points to tight ends this season, and are among the bottom ten in points allowed to receivers. There is no standout option in the Seattle passing game anyways, so feel free to pass on them in this tough matchup.
The Takeaway: The Panthers are tough against the pass and limited Russell Wilson as a runner in their game last season. That has me shifting my attention to Marshawn Lynch and the running game, assuming we get nothing but good news between now and kickoff. The Seattle defense is in play, as well, especially with their dynamic kick and punt return teams.
San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers
| San Diego Chargers | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | Lambeau Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 50 | 20 | -10 | 50 | 30 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.2 | 16 | 1 | 24 | Offense | 27.4 | 5 | 19 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.2 | 3 | 4 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 26.8 | 23 | 7 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 13 | 5 | 18 | San Diego Chargers | 11 | 31 | 3 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Allen | 56 | 39 | 3 | 444 | Cobb | 42 | 28 | 4 | 324 | |
| Floyd | 19 | 11 | 1 | 215 | Adams | 15 | 9 | 0 | 92 | |
| Jones | Jones | 24 | 19 | 5 | 394 | |||||
| Gates | 11 | 9 | 2 | 92 | Rodgers | 25 | 19 | 2 | 166 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Stevie Johnson (SD, Doubtful), Davante Adams (GB, Questionable)
SD Matchup Rating: 4.0
GB Matchup Rating: 7.0
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers wants the Green Bay offense to play faster, according to the Packers’ official website. I can’t imagine the best quarterback in the NFL not getting his way, which should mean a boost in tempo for this game. That benefits the Chargers, who face a tough matchup against the top DVOA defense against the pass, but a defense that has still allowed a handful of touchdowns this season. Philip Rivers (FD $7,500, DK $6,300) will gladly accept a few extra passing attempts, and while it may not be pretty, and may come with a turnover or two, we can expect another 300-yard output from the Alabama native with a couple of scores mixed in.
Running Game: The Packers have a pretty flimsy run defense, but are also heavy favorites. That has me gravitating toward Danny Woodhead (FD $6,000, DK $4,700) over Melvin Gordon (FD $6,500, DK $4,600), although a case could be made for either back. Both are very affordable and face a defense that has allowed Todd Gurley and Matt Forte to have very big days on the ground. When the Chargers have trailed by ten or more points this season, Woodhead is the team’s third-leading receiver and leading rusher. He’s a cash-game viable, tournament preferred running back, while Gordon is a tournament flier.
Pass Catchers: The team’s second-leading receiver when facing a big deficit like the one they’re likely to see against the Packers? Malcom Floyd (FD $5,400, DK $3,400). And with Stevie Johnson still injured and unlikely to feature in this game, Floyd represents a sneakier way to get exposure to this offense outside of the obvious plays of Keenan Allen (FD $7,700, DK $7,600) and the likely very popular Antonio Gates (FD $5,500, DK $4,600). The latter two are both worthy of a spot in any format, while Floyd is a deep tournament play with multiple touchdown upside.
The Takeaway: Rivers, Woodhead, Gates and Allen will be the driving forces on an offense that will be chasing the game against what should be a sped-up Packers team. Throw in Gordon or Floyd as tournament options if you’re feeling daring.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: The Chargers have only faced one halfway-decent quarterback this season, Andy Dalton, and let him throw for three scores. Josh McCown chipped in with over 300 yards and two touchdowns against them a couple of weeks ago, and Matthew Stafford found the end zone twice as well. Their points against and advanced metrics may make them seem like a tough matchup, and we may want to dig into those numbers a bit deeper if they were facing a mortal quarterback. But against Aaron Rodgers (FD $9,300, DK $7,700), I’ll side with the game’s best passer against a defense that gave up fantasy relevant performances to quarterbacks with less talent. He’s in play in any format.
Running Game: There has been a lot of chatter about Eddie Lacy (FD $7,300, DK $6,300) this week, and for good reason. The Chargers rank 30th against the run this season according to Football Outsiders, and 25th according to numberFire. They’ve allowed the third-most points to opposing backs, including 100-yard efforts from Gio Bernard, Adrian Peterson and Le’Veon Bell, as well as big receiving games from the Cleveland running backs. Lacy has persistent injury concerns and is splitting time with James Starks (FD $5,400, DK $3,300) in the backfield, but he only needs 15-20 touches to get 80 yards and a score or two. However, the same is true for Starks, who is cheaper, and has more touches when the Packers have a lead of ten or more this season (which is the spread on this game). Lacy should be a key part of the process that gets the Packers out to their ten-point lead, but Starks will likely be the main back carrying them home to victory. Both are viable in tournaments.
Pass Catchers: Randall Cobb (FD $8,100, DK $7,300) is the only consistent recipient of targets on this offense, and while he’s been slowed over the past two games in easy wins for the Packers, he should pick up where he left off in what should be a higher scoring game against the Chargers. He’ll see a healthy amount of Patrick Robinson, who is PFF’s highest-graded defensive player for the Bolts, but I’m not going to shy away from him based on matchup alone. It might, however, direct my attention to James Jones (FD $6,600, DK $5,800) but only if Davante Adams (FD $5,500, DK $4,300) remains out. If the latter suits up, neither are in play, but if Adams takes one more week off, Jones is a strong tournament option despite his relatively limited workload. Richard Rodgers (FD $5,100, DK $3,100) isn’t a name you hear often at the tight end position, but he’s seen six and eight targets in his last two games, and has turned them into 90 total yards and a touchdown. Another six targets against the Chargers could be another 50 yards and a possible score, making him an interesting tournament pivot from more popular players at the position.
The Takeaway: Aaron Rodgers is always in play, and pairing him with Randall Cobb is never a bad idea. Watch the injury report to make sense of the other receiving options. James Starks and Eddie Lacy are both in play at the running back spot, while Richard Rodgers is an interesting tight end play.
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers
| Baltimore Ravens | San Francisco 49ers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | Candlestick Park | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 44 | 23.25 | 2.5 | 44 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.6 | 10 | 17 | 11 | Offense | 15.0 | 32 | 28 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.0 | 27 | 32 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 27.4 | 25 | 28 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 29 | 27 | 28 | 25 | Baltimore Ravens | 31 | 11 | 31 | 5 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Smith | 47 | 29 | 2 | 373 | Boldin | 38 | 23 | 2 | 231 | |
| Aiken | 27 | 15 | 1 | 243 | Smith | 19 | 11 | 1 | 227 | |
| Perriman | Ellington | 4 | 4 | 0 | 44 | |||||
| Gillmore | 13 | 10 | 2 | 151 | Davis | 15 | 8 | 0 | 109 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Crockett Gillmore, Steve Smith, Justin Forsett (BAL, Questionable), Vernon Davis, Carlos Hyde (SF, Questionable) Reggie Bush (SF, Doubtful)
BAL Matchup Rating: 7.5
SF Matchup Rating: 4.0
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: The 49ers have been a mess this season on defense, ranking in the top eight in fantasy points allowed to every position, and falling in the bottom eight in both DVOA rankings (run and pass). But Joe Flacco (FD $7,800, DK $5,900) doesn’t have a ton of viable, healthy options to throw to, and hasn’t been lighting it up so far this year. It is possible that we see Steve Smith return this weekend, which would be a huge boost for Flacco, and would bring him into cash game consideration. Without his top receiver, however, I will only be going to the Ravens QB in tournaments.
Running Game: Justin Forsett (FD $7,600, DK $6,400) has been limited with an injury, and should he sit out, this running game will be a different daily fantasy situation come Sunday. Forsett would be a top option if he’s healthy, despite the team’s aversion to giving him looks at the goal line. He has nine red zone carries and two red zone targets this year, a decent amount, but only a relatively small fraction of the team’s 50 red zone plays. His upside comes from the potential for a lot of yards and heavy volume, as proven by his 150+ total yard performances over the past two games. If he adds a score on top of that big yardage total, it’s a great day for fantasy owners. However, Javorius Allen (FD $5,100, DK $4,300) is lurking in the background, ready to take snaps and goal-line touches away from Forsett. His role has increased over the last three weeks, and with Lorenzo Taliaferro out, he’s the clear second option for a rushing attack that will likely be able to run all they want against a defense that has allowed DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson and Shane Vereen to all have very productive fantasy days over the past month. Forsett is a cash game option with slightly limited upside, and Allen is a risky but potentially profitable tournament play.
Pass Catchers: If Steve Smith (FD $6,700, DK $6,100) suits up, I’m not going to doubt his toughness or ability to play through pain. He’s a top play if he’s active. Otherwise, Kamar Aiken (FD $6,000, DK $4,300) is the receiver you want, but he’s done nothing to justify his rising salary apart from being the last man standing in the wide receiver meeting room for Baltimore, and is unlikely to return value unless he scores. Crockett Gillmore (FD $4,900, DK $2,700) is interesting as a tight end option if he returns from injury, as the Ravens targeted the fullback in the red zone quite a bit last week, and would presumably shift some of those targets to their lead tight end if he’s healthy and on the field.
The Takeaway: The health of Steve Smith will determine the fate of the passing game for DFS purposes, while the running game features a workhorse back in a good spot, but who is dealing with injury issues, and a backup ready to prove himself should the starter miss out. The defense isn’t quite good enough to fully trust for DFS purposes, but they’re an option against the turnover-prone Niners.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick (FD $7,300, DK $5,000) has been anything but efficient or effective this season, but he’s still managed a few couple fantasy football performances mixed in between lineup-killing outputs. He should go nowhere near your cash game lineups, but against a defense that allowed 470 total yards and three scores to Josh McCown last week, you could do worse in tournaments.
Running Game: The Ravens have allowed the second-most points in the league to passers, but 22nd-most to running backs. They are a slightly-worse-than-average run defense according to Football Outsiders and numberFire, but most of the damage done against them on the ground this year came from superstar Le’Veon Bell. Carlos Hyde (FD $7,000, DK $4,600) and Reggie Bush (FD $5,300, DK $3,500) are both dealing with nagging injuries and don’t present a huge matchup problem for the Ravens, so I don’t see any reason to spend your salary here.
Pass Catchers: Anquan Boldin (FD $6,500, DK $4,300) continues to produce at a decent rate for a veteran receiver, picking up his second touchdown of the season last week in a 100-yard performance. This week he’ll face a defense that has allowed the second-most points to wideouts this year, and that has allowed Michael Crabtree and Marvin Jones to have big days through the air. Boldin is as good, if not better, than both Crabtree and Jones, and should find open space against the Baltimore defense. No other pass catcher has more than half as many targets as Boldin, but Vernon Davis (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) likely would if he weren’t limited by injuries. If he plays on Sunday, he’s a decent option against a defense that allowed Gary Barnidge to go full Gronkowski a week ago.
The Takeaway: Colin Kaepernick and one of his two top veteran pass catchers would be a fun tournament stack, but otherwise this 49er offense isn’t worth your time in daily fantasy football.