NFL Grind Down: Wild Card Round
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (written by STLCardinals84)
| Kansas City Chiefs | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Saturday – 4:35 PM ET | Reliant Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 40 | 21.5 | 3 | 40 | 18.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.3 | 9 | 30 | 6 | Offense | 21.2 | 21 | 19 | 15 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 7 | 3 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 17.9 | 3 | 10 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 13 | 16 | 4 | 18 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 4 | 28 | 2 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 120 | 84 | 7 | 1,027 | Hopkins | 180 | 104 | 11 | 1,432 | |
| Wilson | 51 | 32 | 2 | 453 | Washington | 91 | 46 | 4 | 652 | |
| Avant | 22 | 13 | 0 | 104 | Shorts | 75 | 42 | 3 | 531 | |
| Kelce | 101 | 71 | 5 | 865 | Fiedorowicz | 21 | 15 | 1 | 153 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jeremy Maclin, KC WR (hip): Likely to play / Cecil Shorts, HOU WR (hamstring): Likely to play / Nate Washington, HOU WR (hip): Questionable
KC Matchup Rating: 5.5
HOU Matchup Rating: 4.5
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: Alex Smith has developed a reputation as more of a game manager in past years, but he set a career high with nearly 3,500 passing yards this year. The Chiefs are also playing great football right now. However, Jeremy Maclin is banged up and Houston ranks 3rd in the NFL in pass defense. This isn’t the best week to target the Chiefs passing game. They will likely play conservative here on the road against a good pass defense.
Running Game: Charcandrick West didn’t have a good game against Oakland in Week 17, and Spencer Ware dominated the touches in the second half. Ware is also be the better bet of the two to find the end zone, and he did so a week ago. If you are looking for a cheap option, you could do a lot worse than giving Ware a shot on a week where there are more questions than answers at the running back position. I prefer him over most of the other cheap options on the board, as you never know what you are going to get out of run games from some of the other teams on the slate this week.
Pass Catchers: As I wrote above, I am not the biggest fan of the Kansas City passing game here. Jeremy Maclin is banged up, the #2 wide receiver spot is a mess, and there isn’t a lot of upside there. If forced to choose one Kansas City receiving option, I’d give the nod to an affordable Travis Kelce. He is a fine red zone target for Alex Smith and should see a fair share of targets in this game.
The Takeaway: There isn’t a ton to love in the passing game. If taking an option on Kansas City, I would look to a value option like Spencer Ware or Travis Kelce.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: Kansas City has won ten straight games, and much of it was due to the strength of their defense. The Chiefs rank 9th in the NFL in pass defense and 8th in the NFL in rush defense. It will likely be a struggle for the Texans to move the ball, and I will not be surprised if they fall behind in this game. This could lead to more passing attempts, and Brian Hoyer does have a great wide receiver to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins. I am not in love with the play, but on a four game slate you could do a lot worse than Hoyer as a cheap quarterback in a GPP.
Running Game: Given that the Chiefs are also strong against the run, it is tough to rely on the stable of running backs that Houston can roll out there. Alfred Blue appears to have the upper hand right now, as he has logged 56 carries over the last three games. However, all of those were blowout wins with plenty of clock-killing in the second half. I am not sold on him having a full workload in a competitive game, so expect to see some doses of Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk. Against a good rush defense, I don’t want any part of this running game.
Pass Catchers: Injuries are mounting in the Houston receiving corps, with both Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington nursing injuries. Shorts seems likely to play this week, while Washington’s status is more in doubt. Should Washington sit, Shorts gets a nice boost as the clear cut #2 option in the passing game. Most of the targets will obviously run through DeAndre Hopkins, and Hopkins is virtually matchup-proof at this point. This is a sneaky group to look at assuming the Texans fall behind.
The Takeaway: Don’t touch the running game. Brian Hoyer could be a decent flier as a cheap tournament option at quarterback, with Cecil Shorts and DeAndre Hopkins in play at wide receiver. Hopkins is definitely a top-two option at the position this week, and it is wise to pay up for at least one top option at WR given the lack of running back options this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (written by STLCardinals84)
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
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| Saturday – 8:15 PM ET | Paul Brown Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 45.5 | 24 | 2.5 | 45.5 | 21.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | Offense | 26.2 | 7 | 18 | 13 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.4 | 2 | 22 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 19.9 | 11 | 30 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 14 | 10 | 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 | 2 | 32 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 176 | 123 | 9 | 1,675 | Green | 127 | 82 | 9 | 1,263 | |
| Bryant | 89 | 49 | 7 | 802 | Sanu | 47 | 32 | 2 | 448 | |
| Wheaton | 74 | 41 | 4 | 692 | Jones | 98 | 60 | 4 | 811 | |
| Miller | 77 | 57 | 1 | 519 | Eifert | 70 | 48 | 12 | 564 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeAngelo Williams, PIT RB (foot): Likely out / Andy Dalton, CIN QB (thumb): Likely out
PIT Matchup Rating: 7.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 7.0
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: As you will see below, the running back options are frightening for Pittsburgh – to say the least. Expect an aerial-focused attack behind Ben Roethlisberger and company. He has a solid stable of receivers to target, and he draws the designation as my top overall quarterback of the weekend. The salary cap isn’t too tough this week, and Big Ben should have a 300+ yard day against Cincinnati’s 20th ranked pass defense. He struggled against the Bengals in the regular season, but things should go much better this time around.
Running Game: DeAngelo Williams is not expected to play in this game. That leaves some combination of Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman to handle the running back duties against a top-ten rush defense. Good luck with that, Pittsburgh. Expect Roethlisberger to air it out 40+ times in this game.
Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown should see plenty of targets funneled his way, and he is most likely going to be the top wide receiver pick of the weekend. Martavis Bryant has been very disappointing of late, but he is capable of rattling off big plays at a moment’s notice. Markus Wheaton has picked up his play over the second half of the year. Against a deteriorating Cincinnati secondary, this is a spot to target in the Wild Card round. The only player I will not be on is Heath Miller, who doesn’t see enough targets for my liking and is strictly a touchdown-dependent option.
The Takeaway: Target the Pittsburgh passing game heavily. As with many of the teams this week, running the ball will likely prove difficult for them. Pairing Roethlisberger with at least one of his wideouts is going to be a popular strategy in all formats this weekend.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: Pittsburgh’s defense is bad, so this could be a team to target. They rank 30th in the league in pass defense, and teams generally throw at will against them. However, A.J. McCarron is a low-upside young quarterback who will be making his first playoff start. If you want to throw the narrative in there, it has to be on the minds of the Cincinnati players that they haven’t won a playoff game in a long time. They have lost in the Wild Card round in five consecutive years and six of the last seven. That has to be a mental road block of some sort. I like the spot, but I am wary of looking McCarron’s way.
Running Game: This is one of the toughest spots to peg this week. I expect Cincinnati to lean on the run given McCarron’s presence at quarterback (that’s a plus). On the other hand, Pittsburgh’s defensive strength is against the run (that’s not a plus). However, Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard are a nice tandem in the backfield. Hill has garnered a larger share of the workload in recent weeks. Hill is also the goal line guy, and he is very cheap across the DFS industry. On a slate that is loaded with bad running backs, both of these guys could be considered playable, with Bernard more desirable on full PPR sites.
Pass Catchers: With McCarron at the helm, every receiver not named A.J. Green gets a massive downgrade. It’s impossible to trust Tyler Eifert at a high price tag, and Marvin Jones isn’t consistent enough to target in this scenario. Green should still get plenty of volume, and he has mega upside against a leaky Pittsburgh secondary. He is a great tournament option this week.
The Takeaway: Cincinnati presents an interesting scenario here. The matchup would tend to favor the passing game, but the circumstances dictate more of a run-focused approach. Jeremy Hill and A.J. Green are my favorite targets here, with Green in play as a fantastic tournament option that will likely go under-owned.
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (written by Notorious)
| Seattle Seahawks | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1:05 PM ET | Mall of America Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | 40 | 22.5 | 5 | 40 | 17.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.4 | 4 | 20 | 3 | Offense | 22.8 | 16 | 31 | 4 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.9 | 5 | 14 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 17.3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 14 | 9 | 13 | 9 | Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 1 | 3 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Baldwin | 96 | 73 | 14 | 1,023 | Wallace | 69 | 38 | 2 | 457 | |
| Kearse | 65 | 46 | 4 | 651 | Diggs | 82 | 51 | 4 | 725 | |
| Lockett | 65 | 49 | 6 | 641 | Wright | 47 | 32 | 0 | 450 | |
| Willson | 26 | 17 | 1 | 213 | Rudolph | 72 | 49 | 5 | 495 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Marshawn Lynch, SEA RB (abdomen): Probable / Doug Baldwin, SEA WR (hamstring): Probable / Tyler Lockett, SEA WR (hip): Questionable / Adrian Peterson, MIN RB (back): Probable
SEA Matchup Rating: 5.5
MIN Matchup Rating: 4.0
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: Enough can’t be said about how Russell Wilson ended the season. Over the last six weeks, he averaged 274 yards per game through the air, 28 yards on the ground, and 3.7 touchdowns per game. Those are MVP-type of numbers, although he obviously would need to sustain that over the course of the season. This week he squares off against a Vikings’ defense that was slightly above-average against the pass. During the regular season, they were ranked 11th in FootballOutsiders’ DVOA against the pass. With a potentially spotty running game, Wilson is a viable option this week.
Editor’s Note: Marshawn Lynch has been ruled OUT for Sunday’s game.
Running Game: The Seahawks’ running game isn’t what it used to be. They failed to get much of anything going on the ground earlier in the season with Marshawn Lynch. Once he went down, Thomas Rawls stepped in and played very well. Unfortunately, they lost him for the rest of the season. Christine Michael was next in line. While he has played well recently, it sounds like Lynch will be back for this week’s game against the Vikings. It will likely end up being a running back by committee, as Lynch hasn’t played since mid-November. For fantasy purposes, Lynch and Michael are tournament plays at best.
Pass Catchers: In a strange way, Jimmy Graham going down has actually helped this passing offense. As I mentioned above, Wilson is coming off of his best six-game stretch of the season. During that time, his three main pass catchers were all productive. Here are their fantasy points per game using FanDuel scoring over that stretch: Doug Baldwin (28.3), Tyler Lockett (11.3), and Jermaine Kearse (13.2). Baldwin has emerged as a top fantasy option in this offense. I have him ranked as the third best receiver in this slate behind Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins.
The Takeaway: The Seahawks’ running game is a risky proposition this week and given the fact that Russell Wilson has carried this team on his shoulders recently, we can expect more of the same against the Vikings. With the struggles that Ben Roethlisberger has had against the Bengals this season, I don’t mind using Wilson over him, even if cash games. If you do use Wilson, don’t be afraid to pair him with Doug Baldwin.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater has been one of the most difficult quarterbacks to predict this season. In the span of the last five weeks, his production has ranged from 3.9 to 32.9 fantasy points. While you may see the one solid fantasy outing, there were more duds than breakout games. Even if the Vikings fall behind early, they will still stick with a run-heavy game plan behind a healthy Adrian Peterson. I’d like to say that Bridgewater has some tournament appeal, but I wouldn’t want to lie.
Running Game: If the Vikings are going to take down the mighty Seahawks, they are going to need a big game from Adrian Peterson. If they can build a lead and control the clock, there is a good chance that they can advance to the Divisional Round. While I don’t love the idea of targeting Peterson against the Seahawks, running back is basically a barren wasteland this week. He is easily the top overall play at the position. He should see at least 20 touches with the potential for more if the Vikings are playing with the lead.
Pass Catchers: There was a point in the season when Stefon Diggs was one of the better value plays at wide receiver. He has cooled off in recent weeks though, as Teddy Bridgewater has thrown for less than 200 yards in four of his last six games. The Vikings’ receivers are going to have a tough time getting open against Richard Sherman and company. Kyle Rudolph may be the one pass catcher that I’d consider from the Vikings. The Seahawks were ranked 26th in FootballOutsiders’ DVOA against tight ends this season and they allowed the sixth most fantasy points to the position.
The Takeaway: Even though the Vikings are playing at home, this is a very tough matchup for their offense. The Seahawks are stout against the run and they are just as good against the pass. Adrian Peterson is in play here thanks to the lack of other options at running back. However, I wouldn’t try to get too many Vikings into your lineup(s) this week.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (written by Notorious)
| Green Bay Packers | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:40 PM ET | FedExField | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 45 | 23 | 1 | 45 | 22 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.0 | 15 | 26 | 12 | Offense | 24.3 | 10 | 12 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.7 | 17 | 27 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 20.2 | 12 | 6 | 21 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington Redskins | 19 | 18 | 22 | 13 | Green Bay Packers | 15 | 13 | 11 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cobb | 121 | 73 | 6 | 839 | Jackson | 49 | 30 | 4 | 528 | |
| Adams | 88 | 46 | 1 | 429 | Garcon | 107 | 69 | 5 | 728 | |
| Jones | 86 | 46 | 8 | 788 | Crowder | 71 | 54 | 1 | 497 | |
| Rodgers | 77 | 51 | 7 | 462 | Reed | 110 | 83 | 11 | 907 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Eddie Lacy, GB RB (ribs): Probable / Davante Adams, GB WR (foot): Probable / Matt Jones, WAS RB (hip): Questionable / Desean Jackson, WAS WR (knee): Questionable
GB Matchup Rating: 6.5
WAS Matchup Rating: 6.5
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: I don’t know if anyone could have predicted the struggles that the Packers have had passing the ball this season. Even with a fairly healthy Aaron Rodgers, they were ranked in the bottom six in the league in both passing yards and passing yards per attempts. Without a deep threat (Jordy Nelson) and with their receivers have been unable to get any separation, teams have loaded up defensive players in the middle of the field. Now, would I ever count Rodgers out in a playoff game? Of course not. If the Packers are going to win this game, they will need a big game from their field general. I won’t be looking his way in cash games, but he does provide nice upside against the Redskins, who have the second worst pass defense of the eight teams in play this weekend.
Running Game: The packers’ receivers have struggled to get open in man to man coverage this season, but they certainly haven’t had any help from the running game. James Starks and Eddie Lacy have both been disappointments in what is usually a very strong Packers’ running game. Over the last three weeks of the season, Lacy out-snapped and out-touched Starks and we can expect more of the same against the Redskins. This is certainly an exploitable matchup, as the Redskins are ranked 22nd in FootballOutsiders’ DVOA against the run.
Pass Catchers: Randall Cobb will likely be the highest owned Packers’ receiver this week, but if you look at the numbers, he shouldn’t be. Cobb has had an extremely disappointing season and he only very few targets in the last three games of the year. James Jones has basically become Aaron Rodgers go-to receiver down the stretch. That’s not to say that Cobb isn’t in play, but Jones appears to be the better play this week against the Redskins. Davante Adams can be avoided in all league formats. Richard Rodgers is worth a look at tight end, as the Redskins are ranked 21st in DVOA against the position.
The Takeaway: Now that we are into the playoffs, we should expect some lower scoring games. However, this game has as good of a chance as any to turn into a shootout. The Redskins’ defense isn’t particularly good against the run or the pass and Washington’s offense has been putting up a lot of points recently. There aren’t any must plays from the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, and James Jones are all viable options.
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: In his last three full games, Kirk Cousins has averaged 328 yards and three passing touchdowns. He also added two rushing touchdowns during that stretch, which gave him an average of 30.1 fantasy points per game. This week, the Redskins host the Packers in one of the NFC Wildcard games. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em and both offenses are expected to have some success. The Packers were actually pretty stout against the pass this season, but they were middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position. Cousins is priced fairly, but it makes sense to pay up for one of the two premier plays in cash games – Ben Roethlisberger or Russell Wilson.
Running Game: Matt Jones is listed as questionable for this game, but the coaches are pessimistic about his status. It sounds like he may miss his third game in a row. If that’s the case, Alfred Morris and Chris Thompson would split the running back duties. Morris would likely take on the early down role, while Thompson would be used more in passing situations. Neither player is particularly appealing from a fantasy perspective, but the Packers do have a below-average run defense. They were ranked 19th in FootballOutsiders’ DVOA against the run and they allowed the seventh most yards per rush this season. Morris and Thompson are GPP fliers at best this week.
Pass Catchers: When it comes to the Redskins’ pass catchers, it is Jordan Reed and then it is everyone else. Reed has been Gronk-like this season, especially over the last month of play. In those four games, he averaged 7.3 receptions for 94.5 yards and 1.25 touchdowns. The most impressive part is that he only played a quarter and a half in their final game. Reed is the premier play at tight end this week and should be targeted in all league formats. As for Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson, neither stands out as a must play. However, Garcon is worth a look in cash games (higher floor) and Jackson is worth a look in tournaments (higher ceiling).
The Takeaway: This game has the feeling of a shootout. Obviously, anything can happen in an NFL game (especially in the playoffs), but the Redskins could be a sneaky source of fantasy production. Kirk Cousins and his wideouts could be an interesting stack in tournaments. The only must play here is Jordan Reed. Given his breakout season and the lack of other options, he is a tough fade against the Packers.