NHL Grind Down: Monday, December 12th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Arizona Coyotes at Pittsburgh Penguins
| Arizona Coyotes | Pittsburgh Penguins | ||||||||
 | Mike Smith |  | Matt Murray | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 9-13-5 | 18-7-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.22 | 3.04 | 13.90% | 80.90% | Team Stats | 3.39 | 2.96 | 19.60% | 76.00% |
The Coyotes enter action tonight owning the worst record in the NHL thus far this season and have the unenviable task of taking on a Pittsburgh team that an 11-2-1 record at the PPG Paints Arena. On almost any other night this would be a pretty easy fade, but with just two games on the docket tonight, we don’t really have that luxury. Arizona was able to snap out of a six game losing streak with a 4-1 victory over Nashville on Saturday, and while clearly out-gunned in this matchup, Dave Tippett does have two very capable scoring lines to deploy. The trio if Tobias Rieder, Martin Hanzal and Radim Vrbata join forces on the top forward line and all three players also see plenty of run on the power-play. With Pittsburgh owning a troubling 76.0% penalty kill, targeting that power-play seems like the angle to attack here. Vrbata leads the team with 18 points and 81 shots on goal, making him the easiest forward to trust tonight. With Max Domi sidelined for the foreseeable future, the second forward line looks a bit less dangerous. Still Shane Doan has been a proven goal-scorer for over a decade and Christian Dvorak has flashed plenty of offensive upside in his rookie season. On defense, all eyes should shift to Oliver Ekman-Larsson. The 25 former first-round pick is the face of this franchise and routinely the top fantasy option. While he’s been held off the scoresheet in three straight games, he did log over 30 minutes of ice-time on Saturday night against the Predators and does own a solid 13 points in 27 games this season. He’s aggressive, creative with the puck and a dangerous weapon as the point man of the #1 power-play unit. With Pittsburgh’s poor penalty kill in mind, he’s a fine play in all formats on the blue-line.
A two game slate and at home against Arizona? Welcome to Chalk City. After picking up a big 4-3 win in Tampa on Saturday night, Pittsburgh will put their five game winning streak on the line as heavy -300 favorites over the Coyotes. Arizona has surrendered 3.04 goals per game as well as a league worst 35.4 shots against per game which does not bode well for them against one of the most aggressive offensive teams in the NHL (61.86 CF60). Sidney Crosby enters with 20 goals and 11 assists in 22 games this season and is easily my #1 play on the board this evening and it makes no sense to fade him in cash games. Conor Sheary and Patric Hornqvist have the luxury of skating alongside him on the top line and that makes them both fine plays from an opportunity standpoint alone. Hornqvist is the more offensively gifted of the two, but Sheary has held his own with seven goals and eight assists in 21 games this season and remains well underpriced on several sites. Pairing him with Crosby is a terrific way to soften Crosby’s significant cap hit. Alternatively, Evgeni Malkin centers both Phil Kessel and Carl Hagelin on a “second” line that just about every other team in the NHL would be thrilled with as their #1 scoring option. Both Malkin and Kessel sit tied with 30 points in 28 games each and, while they’ll still be chalky, they won’t command quite as much attention as their teammates on the top line. On defense, Kris Letang sits as the top play in my rankings. He dished out three assists against Tampa over the weekend and now owns two goals and 16 assists in just 23 games this season. He holds the reigns as the point-man of Pittsburgh’s extremely threatening #1 power-play unit and I’d be surprised to see him held off of the score-sheet tonight. Alternatively, both Trevor Daley and Justin Schultz see a healthy dose of playing time with the second power-play unit and are in play if you’re looking for some salary relief.
Arizona Coyotes
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 44.73 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -12, 118.3 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Martin Hanzal ($5,800 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.34 CF60, 2.06 xGF60, 95.95 PDO
Radim Vrbata ($4,900 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.71 CF60, 2.21 xGF60, 97.95 PDO
Alex Goligoski ($4,300 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 49.8 CF60, 1.97 xGF60, 102.36 PDO
Expected Netminder
Mike Smith – My Ratings (out of 10): 4 Cash, 6 GPP
Pittsburgh Penguins
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 52.17 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 13, 118.58 CP60
Elite Options
Sidney Crosby ($9,300 FD, $8,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 75.45 CF60, 3.88 xGF60, 100.35 PDO
Evgeni Malkin ($8,400 FD, $7,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.77 CF60, 3.04 xGF60, 102.51 PDO
Phil Kessel ($7,500 FD, $6,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.19 CF60, 2.41 xGF60, 104.43 PDO
Kris Letang ($7,200 FD, $6,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.12 CF60, 3.4 xGF60, 98.28 PDO
Secondary Options
Patric Hornqvist ($7,300 FD, $7,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 74.23 CF60, 4.3 xGF60, 101.12 PDO
Conor Sheary ($5,000 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 68.49 CF60, 3.76 xGF60, 103.86 PDO
Carl Hagelin ($4,800 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.51 CF60, 2.9 xGF60, 100.57 PDO
Trevor Daley ($4,200 FD, DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.45 CF60, 2.83 xGF60, 100.86 PDO
Justin Schultz ($4,000 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.16 CF60, 3.31 xGF60, 101.64 PDO
Expected Netminder
Marc-Andre Fleury – My Ratings (out of 10): 9 Cash, 8 GPP
Boston Bruins at Montréal Canadiens
| Boston Bruins | Montréal Canadiens | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Carey Price | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 15-12-2 | 19-6-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.31 | 2.38 | 13.90% | 87.20% | Team Stats | 3.21 | 2.18 | 21.60% | 81.70% |
In a game against their bitter rival, the stakes are pretty high this evening for the Boston Bruins. They’ll enter the Bell Centre having dropped three straight games and are on the verge of potentially falling too far behind the Montreal Canadiens to realistically have any chance at the Atlantic Division championship. Unfortunately for them, Montreal not only owns the best record in the Eastern Conference, but they also sport a tremendous 14-1-1 record at the Bell Centre. Montreal has taken each of the first two meetings between these teams this season, but you can’t ignore the Boston side of things on this two game slate. Up-front, Claude Julien just shook things up in a big way. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand will remain paired together, but the talented David Pastrnak will drop down to play alongside David Krejci in an attempt to jump-start Krejci’s offensive game. Pastrnak has taken a huge step towards NHL stardom in third season as the former first-round pick bulked up a bit over the offseason and it’s paid dividends as he’s has exploded for 18 goals and six assists in just 24 games. He lit the lamp against Montreal in their last meeting and his new assignment doesn’t figure to slow him down too much as Krejci is more than capable offensively and Pastrnak is now also going to see time on the #1 power-play unit. This shift pushes David Backes on the top line alongside Bergeron and Marchand and those three should not only be extremely strong defensively, but have more than enough firepower to consistently put the puck in the net. Just keep your expectations in check this evening as Montreal has only allowed 1.56 goals against per game on their home ice so far this season. On defense, Zdeno Chara figures to get plenty of air-time tonight against his fierce rivals, but it’s Torey Krug that offers the most fantasy upside. He quarterback’s their #1 power-play and it’s only a matter of time until we see his 1.2% shooting percentage progress back towards its career mark of 4.3% (which is still rather low).
Key injuries to major contributors David Desharnais and Alex Galchenyuk are definitely a concern in Montreal, but the Habs didn’t see bothered in their last game as they destroyed the Colorado Avalanche by a score of 10-1 (yes, that’s a ten). Those injuries have really thinned out Michel Therrien’s forward depth and he’ll likely lean quite heavily on his top line of Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec and Alexander Radulov to carry the scoring load for the next month. Pacioretty leads the charge with 12 goals and 12 assists in 28 games with Radulov trailing just behind with 23 points of his own. This trio does figure to be shadowed as much as possible by the pesky defense of the Bergeron line, but Therrien should be able to utilize the last line change to get them into plenty of favorable matchups. Brendan Gallagher has dished out four assists over the last four games and headlines the second forward line alongside Paul Byron and Torrey Mitchell. Gallagher also sees a healthy dose of playing time on the #2 power-play, making him an intriguing GPP target. On defense, Shea Weber is easily the top target. He’s been eerily quiet lately, but is not shy about unloading his 108 MPH cannon slapshot from the point of the #1 power-play and he’s already tallied a goal and an assists in those two previous meetings with Boston this season. Andrei Markov shares the point of the #1 power-play unit with Weber and has posted 14 points in 16 home games this season. He owns a pair of assists in those first two meetings against the Bruins and comes at a much more reasonable asking price.
Boston Bruins
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 54.86 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -1, 111.51 CP60
Elite Options
Brad Marchand ($7,000 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 73.58 CF60, 3.01 xGF60, 99.95 PDO
David Pastrnak ($7,000 FD, $7,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 74.25 CF60, 3.22 xGF60, 103.1 PDO
Secondary Options
Patrice Bergeron ($6,600 FD, $6,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 70.61 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 98.71 PDO
David Krejci ($5,900 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.82 CF60, 2.33 xGF60, 97.06 PDO
David Backes ($5,700 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.28 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 99.52 PDO
Torey Krug ($5,500 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.84 CF60, 2.48 xGF60, 97.59 PDO
Expected Netminder
Tuukka Rask – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 7 GPP
Montreal Canadiens
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.61 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 23, 117.59 CP60
Elite Options
Max Pacioretty ($7,000 FD, $7,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 68.93 CF60, 3.06 xGF60, 102.44 PDO
Alexander Radulov ($6,200 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.6 CF60, 3.12 xGF60, 102.55 PDO
Shea Weber ($6,400 FD, $6,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.77 CF60, 2.61 xGF60, 103.99 PDO
Secondary Options
Brendan Gallagher ($5,800 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 68.79 CF60, 3.16 xGF60, 103.9 PDO
Tomas Plekanec ($5,400 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.35 CF60, 2.72 xGF60, 101.33 PDO
Andrei Markov ($5,200 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.37 CF60, 3.06 xGF60, 101.84 PDO
Expected Netminder
Carey Price – My Ratings (out of 10): 8.5 Cash, 8.5 GPP