NHL Grind Down: Monday, November 28th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Calgary Flames at New York Islanders
| Calgary Flames | New York Islanders | ||||||||
 | Brian Elliott |  | Jaroslav Halak | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 10-13-1 | 6-10-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.26 | 3.00 | 10.50% | 75.80% | Team Stats | 2.40 | 3.05 | 13.80% | 79.70% |
The Flames will wrap up a tough six game road trip with a clash tonight in Brooklyn against the New York Islanders. Calgary dropped a 5-3 decision on Sunday and have been rather disappointing this season as they’ll take the ice tonight owning a 10-13-1 record. With Johnny Gaudreau sidelined for the foreseeable future, Glen Gulutzan has less forward depth to work with and now relies heavily on each of his top two forward lines. Michael Frolik has cooled off a bit lately but still leads the team with 14 points in 24 games this season. He’ll be joined by Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund on the top forward line, leaving Sean Monahan to skate alongside Kris Versteeg and Troy Brouwer on a very dangerous second line. With the Islanders having coughed up an ugly 3.05 GA/G and 79.7% penalty kill, all six forwards are in play on tonight’s two game slate. On defense, the Flames have several appealing option to target against that subpar New York penalty kill. Both Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano offer plenty of offensive upside and see plenty of work from the point of the Flame’s #1 power-play unit. Hamilton dished out a pair of assists in Sunday’s loss and has now racked up six assists over the last five games.
Speaking of disappointing, the New York Islanders land in that camp as they prepare for tonight’s game against the Calgary Flames. They’ll be happy to return home after a tough three game west coast road trip and have now posted a 3-7-3 record over their last 13 games. With all of that said, they’re likely going to be very popular targets tonight as the Flames have allowed 3.08 goals against per game this season and own the second worst penalty kill in the NHL (75.8%). As expected, John Tavares leads the team with 15 points and is one of the top targets on the board this evening. He’s slated to be joined by Josh Bailey and Anthony Beauvillier on the top forward line and his linemates (particular Bailey) are fine options based on opportunity alone. Alternatively, Brock Nelson is off to a fine start to the season with 13 points in 20 games and offers a fine secondary scoring option as he centers the second forward line between Nikolay Kulemin and Shane Prince. Nelson also joins Bailey and Tavares (and Anders Lee) on the top forward line; giving him plenty of fantasy appeal in this matchup. Nick Leddy leads the charge on defense as he’s grabbed the reigns as the point-man on that #1 power-play unit and has posted four goals and six assists on the young season. Travis Hamonic and Johnny Boychuk are also worth mentioning as they both see a healthy dose of playing time on the point of the second power-play unit.
Calgary Flames
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.1 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -7, 109.16 CP60
Elite Options
Mark Giordano ($6,200 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55 CF60, 2.22 xGF60, 100.68 PDO
Dougie Hamilton ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.15 CF60, 2.9 xGF60, 96.2 PDO
Secondary Options
Michael Frolik ($4,900 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.9 CF60, 2.63 xGF60, 97.1 PDO
Sean Monahan ($6,400 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.99 CF60, 2.15 xGF60, 96.62 PDO
Troy Brouwer ($4,700 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 48.88 CF60, 1.87 xGF60, 100.09 PDO
Expected Netminder
Brian Elliott – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
New York Islanders
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 46.07 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -3, 118.2 CP60
Elite Options
John Tavares ($7,600 FD, $7,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.41 CF60, 2.44 xGF60, 99.41 PDO
Nick Leddy ($4,800 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.61 CF60, 2.18 xGF60, 98.53 PDO
Secondary Options
Josh Bailey ($4,200 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.3 CF60, 2.26 xGF60, 99.94 PDO
Brock Nelson ($5,200 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.98 CF60, 2.7 xGF60, 103.62 PDO
Anders Lee ($4,300 FD, $3,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.57 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 101.35 PDO
Johnny Boychuk ($4,900 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.76 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 97.42 PDO
Expected Netminder
Thomas Greiss – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues
| Dallas Stars | St. Louis Blues | ||||||||
 | Antti Niemi |  | Jake Allen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 9-8-5 | 12-7-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.59 | 3.27 | 18.10% | 78.70% | Team Stats | 2.59 | 2.68 | 21.30% | 88.40% |
In a key battle in the Central Division, the Dallas Stars will head to the Gateway City looking to replicate their 6-2 victory in their only previous visit this season. Dallas picked up a win over Vancouver in their last game and but have only managed to win consecutive games one time this season. Breaking them down offensively is pretty straight forward when Lindy Ruff cooperates as Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are one of the most dangerous duos in the entire NHL when allowed to play together on the top forward line. Tonight, Ruff appears to be playing nice to DFS players as Segiun and Benn are slated to be joined by Patrick Eaves on the top forward line which makes them all fine options particularly if the defensive sound Alex Steen remains out of action again this evening. With Patrick Sharp back to full health, Ruff finally has two very dangerous scoring lines to throw over the boards as the trio of Sharp, Spezza and Eakin are more than capable of punishing St. Louis if they focus too heavily on slowing down Benn and Seguin. On defense, John Klingberg looks to be working his way out of the doghouse. He’s resecured the role as quarterback of the #1 power-play unit and lit the lamp twice in that first game against the Blues. Former first round pick Julius Honka has looked impressive in his brief stint with the big club and remains a fine value play as he put up solid offensive numbers at every stop on his way to the NHL.
After a slow start to the season, the St. Louis Blues look to be hitting their stride as we head towards the month of December. St. Louis picked up a statement win over Minnesota on Saturday night and have now picked up wins in five of their last six games. While they’ll likely be without Alex Steen once again this evening, Ken Hitchcock still has plenty of offensive weapons to counter punch Dallas with this evening. With Dallas likely looking to push the pace offensively and having allowed a Western Conference worst 3.27 goals against per game this season, St. Louis will be very popular this evening. Up-front, all eyes will be on Vladimir Tarasenko as he leads St. Louis with 22 points in 22 games this season and is tied with Austin Matthews for fifth place in the NHL in shots on goal (77). Robby Fabbri and Jori Lehtera join him both at even strength and on the #1 power-play unit and are therefore fine options tonight as well. The trio of Jaden Schwartz, Paul Stastny and David Perron join forces on a very capable secondary scoring line and, since they tend to be overlooked as most DFS players are immediately drawn to Tarasenko, are terrific GPP targets in this matchup. On defense, things are pretty straight forward. Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko all see plenty of playing time with the man advantage and all three have shown plenty of offensive upside. Shattenkirk has emerged as the point man alongside Tarasenko on the #1 power-play unit and leads the trio with 14 points in 22 games.
Dallas Stars
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 48 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -8, 117.76 CP60
Elite Options
Jamie Benn ($8,400 FD, $7,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.27 CF60, 2.33 xGF60, 98.24 PDO
Tyler Seguin ($8,300 FD, $8,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.65 CF60, 2.69 xGF60, 96.08 PDO
Secondary Options
Patrick Sharp ($6,000 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.53 CF60, 1.99 xGF60, 94.91 PDO
Jason Spezza ($6,400 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.63 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 92.63 PDO
Patrick Eaves ($5,700 FD, $6,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.5 CF60, 2.39 xGF60, 97.02 PDO
John Klingberg ($4,900 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.96 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 98.86 PDO
Expected Netminder
Antti Niemi – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 6 GPP
St. Louis Blues
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 53.36 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -4, 105.08 CP60
Elite Options
Vladimir Tarasenko ($8,400 FD, $7,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.83 CF60, 3.21 xGF60, 101.13 PDO
Kevin Shattenkirk ($6,200 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.66 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 100.02 PDO
Secondary Options
David Perron ($4,900 FD, $4,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.35 CF60, 2.59 xGF60, 96.24 PDO
Robby Fabbri ($5,300 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.32 CF60, 2.03 xGF60, 97.47 PDO
Paul Stastny ($5,300 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.77 CF60, 2.2 xGF60, 100.58 PDO
Jaden Schwartz ($5,800 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.65 CF60, 3.22 xGF60, 104.7 PDO
Alex Pietrangelo ($5,400 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.33 CF60, 2.66 xGF60, 98.54 PDO
Colton Parayko ($5,100 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.72 CF60, 2.45 xGF60, 98.12 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jake Allen – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7.5 GPP