NHL Slate Summary: Saturday, February 18th
Saturdays typically offer rather robust NHL slates, and things are no different this time around.
The majority of the action will be centered around the eight games taking place Saturday evening, but before digging into things there, I’ll take a quick look at the three afternoon games.
Afternoon Slate
With the NHL’s best team rolling right now and heading into Detroit to face a Red Wings team that has now dropped five straight games (10 of their last 12), the Washington Capitals are going to be popular selections this afternoon. Notably, this means Alex Ovechkin becomes an extremely dangerous player to fade in cash games. This matchup also makes Vezina Trophy winner Braden Holtby a very appealing option in net and locks Ovechkin’s linemates T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom in as top-tier plays as well. While it’s a bit easier to fit a team around these expensive studs on FanDuel, it’s immediately clear that some value options are going to be necessary this afternoon and I’ll briefly touch on some of the top options in a minute before moving on to the evening slate.
Elsewhere, the St. Louis Blues have turned things around under new Coach Mike Yeo and figure to draw some attention as they invade the KeyBank Center in Buffalo. Meanwhile, Montreal owns a 18-7-4 record at the Bell Centre and has a favorable matchup on tap against a Winnipeg team that is certainly not known for their defensive exploits. This means expensive guys like Vladimir Tarasenko, Max Pacioretty, Kevin Shattenkirk and Shea Weber will be highly sought after as well, which only further magnifies the search for some quality salary relief.
With that in mind, here’s a quick run-down of my favorite afternoon value plays (in no particular order):
1) Marcus Johansson – Washington Capitals – This is an easy one, really. Johansson has picked up a goal and an assist in each of the last four games and his asking price is still lagging well behind his recent production. With a goal and an assist in the two prior meetings against Detroit this season, along with his exposure to Alex Ovechkin on the #1 power-play unit, he should be highly owned.
2)Brett Connolly – Washington Capitals – He’s never been much of a scoring threat, but he’s now racked up four goals and four assists during his current six-game scoring streak.
3)Phillip Danault – Montreal Canadiens – He’s not quite the same bargain he was last month, but the former first-round pick still looks under priced considering his role as the center of Montreal’s top forward line and #1 power-play unit. With Winnipeg penalty prone and owning a subpar 76.7% penalty kill, Danault should find himself with plenty of scoring opportunities.
4)Mathieu Perreault – Winnipeg Jets – With Andrew Copp sidelined for the next few games, Perreault looks to be the biggest beneficiary. He’s slated to join Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler at both even strength and on the #1 power-play unit and he lit the lamp in the only previous meeting with Montreal this season.
5)Kenny Agostino – St. Louis Blues – After tearing up the AHL for 60 points in 48 games this season, Agostino if finally getting his chance at the NHL level. In an extremely limited sample size, his advanced stats are off the charts (3.63 xGF60 and 15.05 SCF60). His rookie linemate Ivan Barbashev has been impressive and is also an option.
6)Anthony Mantha – Detroit Red Wings – The matchup is terrible, but he may just be Detroit’s most dangerous offensive weapon.
7)Andreas Athanasiou – Detroit Red Wings – Again, terrible matchup but AA has the speed to make Washington pay for any mistakes in a hurry and his 2.90 xGF60 is encouraging.
Evening Slate
Eight games to work with. Tons of money guaranteed. New faces in the lobby. Tonight is going to be fun.
At first glance, two games stand out right away as fine targets; 1) A potential offensive shootout in Toronto as the Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators, and 2) San Jose’s very favorable matchup against the defensively inept Arizona Coyotes.
Toronto continues to be the fastest paced team in the NHL and, with a 114.16 CP60 of their own, Ottawa won’t be looking to slow down the pace. They’ve combined for 20 goals in their three prior meetings this season, and while I’ve yet to see a Vegas total, this game figures to have the highest likelihood for offensive fireworks.
On the opposite side of the country, and with the Colorado Avalanche not in action tonight, the Arizona Coyotes take the crown as the easiest team to pick on tonight. They’ve allowed an ugly 3.15 goals against per game this season and face a San Jose team loaded with offensive weapons. The Coyotes have actually won three of the four meetings between these two teams this season and are actually playing quite well down the stretch, but that likely won’t scare too many people away.
Storylines
Brent Burns’ dominance – Simply put, he’s dominating his position far more than anyone else in the NHL right now. With a terrific matchup on tap tonight, fade him at your own risk. There’s really no great excuse to leave him off of your cash lineup (especially on FanDuel, where it’s easier to build a solid team around him).
Dallas’ horrendous PK – Dallas will enter tonight’s game owning a putrid 74.1 penalty kill. That’s not only dead last in the NHL, but no team has finished an NHL season with a penalty kill this bad since the 1980’s. With Tampa owning a very solid 21.0% power-play, Kucherov and his teammates on the top power-play have considerable GPP appeal.
Playoff implications – There’s some added importance in the air in Toronto this evening as both the Senators and Maple Leafs have climbed within striking distance of the Montreal Canadiens for the lead in the Atlantic Division. While I don’t expect it to effect the expected high-pace in that game, it is possible we see both sides play it just a bit safer than we’re used to. Meanwhile, both Florida and Los Angeles find themselves outside of the playoff picture as the puck drops tonight. Both teams have the depth and talent to potentially make some noise this spring, and really need to hit their stride very soon.
Top Targets
Brent Burns – San Jose Sharks – See above.
Erik Karlsson – Ottawa Senators – With the masses likely on Burns (for good reason), Karlsson may just be GPP gold. He’s a bit cheaper than Burns and happens to be one of the only other blue-liners that can even come close to matching his upside. Karlsson thrives in these up-tempo games and has already posted a goal and four assists in three games against the Leafs this season.
Patrick Kane – Chicago Blackhawks – He’s really starting to heat up (four goals and five assists in five games this month) and just scored a goal and added two assists against this Edmonton team last weekend.
Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs – I want some exposure to this game and love Matthews ceiling here. He’s already tallied four goals and added an assist in three games against Ottawa this season.
Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning – He’s a point-per-game player who should benefit from Dallas’ quick pace and aforementioned garbage penalty kill.
Jamie Benn – Dallas Stars – He scored 41 goals last season and his mediocre 2016-17 campaign has him very reasonably priced. Benn now owns five goals and six assists in eight games since the All-Star break and has tallied 31 points in 29 games at the American Airlines Center.
Victor Hedman – Tampa Bay Lighting – It’s going to be tricky to play him tonight with Burns/Karlsson within shooting distance at this price range, but Hedman sees an uptick for the same reasons as Kucherov. He showed his upside with a goal, an assist and five shots on goal in his last outing.
Value Options
Anders Lee – New York Islanders – Calling him a value play may be a slight stretch, but he definitely seems under priced considering the recent production. Lee has racked up eight goals and nine assists over his last 15 games and is clearly thriving alongside John Tavares on the Islanders’ top forward line and #1 power-play unit.
Bo Horvat – Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks feeble offense is rarely targeted, but they are a far better team on home ice and Horvat is proving to be their most dangerous offensive weapon. He’s lit the lamp in each of the last three games and the Calgary Flames aren’t going to win any defensive awards this offseason.
Josh Leivo – Toronto Maple Leafs – Leivo is overshadowed by all of the other young talent on the Maple Leafs, but he’s racked up a goal and four assists in the last two games and unloaded five shots on goal in each contest. Keep your expectations in check, but he could be in line for an increased workload if Mitch Marner is held out of this game.
Devin Shore – Dallas Stars – He’s admittedly not the most exciting player to plug into your lineup, but does have the luxury of skating alongside tremendous play-makers in Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza on Dallas’ top forward line.
Adrian Kempe – Los Angeles Kings – Much like Shore above, Kempe is in play tonight thanks to his current line assignment. The former first-round pick is slated to skate alongside Anze Kopitar and Tyler Toffoli and he’s put up impressive numbers at the International level in the World Juniors.