The Fantasy Grout, Week 12 - Thanksgiving Leftovers
You guys.
I wrote 5,000 non-fantasy related words in my intro last week. I’m not putting you through that again this week. Here’s a list of the things I’m thankful for, if you need a little levity. You’ll also find nearly the perfect game plan for a strong cash on Thanksgiving. Yes, it does hurt my arm contorting it in such a way to pat myself on the back, but it is totally worth it!
Previously On The Fantasy Grout
While we’re at it! Last week went pretty well:
Yada, Yada
Martellus Bennett – $3,700 – 2.4 PT – 0.649 PT/$K
Albert Wilson – $3,400 – 11.9 PT – 3.500 PT/$K
Cameron Meredith – $4,100 – 8.9 PT – 2.171 PT/$K
Jeremy Hill – $4,400 – 8.3 PT – 1.886 PT/$K
Doug Martin – $5,400 – 13.5 PT – 2.500 PT/$K
Russell Wilson – $6,100 – 25.28 PT – 4.144 PT/$K
—- TOTAL —- $27,100 – 70.28 – 2.593 PT/$K
Gang Grout
Zach Miller – $3,800 – 15.1 PT – 3.974 PT/$K
Sterling Shepard – $4,700 – 16.0 PT – 3.404 PT/$K
Devante Parker – $4,100 – 21.9 PT – 5.341 PT/$K
Isaiah Crowell – $4,900 – 7.3 PT – 1.490 PT/$K
C.J. Prosise – $4,200 – 16.1 PT – 3.833 PT/$K
Blake Bortles – $5,400 – 14.38 PT – 2.663 PT/$K
—- TOTAL —- $27,100 – 90.78 PT – 3.350 PT/$K
In the Yada, Yada section, I missed on M. Bennett, as 39.92% of the FF Millionaire field did. I think I was in the minority who had Z. Miller over Bennett, which proved profitable, despite Miller missing a large chunk of the game. Across both sets, J. Hill, I. Crowell, and C. Meredith were misses, to which I say ”Oh, Well.” Also, regarding that well, I’ll be going back to it this week. One more thing. I know #BortlesInCash didn’t work out, but I don’t care. That shouldn’t undercut the movement. #AllMinutesMatter. Garbage time is time too!
The Fantasy Grout
As always, the pricing parameters are as such. DraftKings was up to all sorts of pricing shenanigans this week, as I’ll highlight below.
$6,500-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,000-or-less – Tight End
TIGHT END
I’m finally starting to pick my color in the yin-and-yang of tight end. For weeks, I’ve been showing you how all the upside at the tight end position is concentrated in the top-priced, elite options. Especially as it pertains to 100-yard bonuses and the 30-point scores they create. I’ve then proceeded to recommend cheap tight ends to you. Quite the dichotomy.
I think the key piece of information left off is that the tight end position tends to be have more value, cheaper. Because salaries on Draftkings are much tighter than on FanDuel, getting reasonably certain production from a below-$4K price point helps free up everything else. That is, elite tight ends have an opportunity cost. That’s unlike the running back position, where a reasonable volume floor starts in the mid-$4K range, on average, with a strong success expectation costing much more than that. Wide receiver has some cheap upside below $4,000, but that comes rife with bust potential.
In tournaments, where you’d like 20+ from everyone, pay up at tight end, and don’t think twice. In cash, where first place is a much less important plateau than 40th percentile, paying down at tight end just makes sense.
YADA, YADA
Ben Koyack, $2,500 AT BUF – After then 3rd-string tight end, Neal Sterling, was priced at $500 over the minimum in Week 2, he became an official mascot of The Fantasy Grout. With Marcedes Lewis on the IR and Julius Thomas already ruled out for Week 12, it seemed it might be his time to shine.
Unfortunately, it looks like Ben Koyack has taken over as third string. We’ve seen Koyack shine in garbage time at Tennessee, catching five of five targets for 41 yards on one drive. Also, it turns out those minutes mattered! He was the more trusted run blocker, even when Thomas was healthy, so he’s in line for a good chunk of the Jaguar tight end workload. Coming into Week 11, Buffalo was allowing the most yards per tight end target this season. (Thanks Graham Barfield!)
#FreeNealSterling
Jared Cook, $2,500 AT PHI – There are a couple ingredients that form the recipe for why his name is here. The obvious one is his stat line from last week: 6-for-105-and-1 on 11 targets. Like any good dish, the main ingredient doesn’t make the dish. It’s the accouterments that do the trick!
The snap count is one, as the Packer tight end saw 61% of snaps in his first action back since Week 3. You also season this play with the fact that Green Bay doesn’t run the ball and that their tight ends run wide receiver type routes down the field. Then, there’s the key to the recipe. Despite DraftKings getting all cavalier with dynamic pricing updates, the Packers played last Sunday, which is why Jared’s price is the tight end minimum $2,500.
With all these ingredients, one thing is clear. There’s only one J. Cooks that can make them work.
GANG GROUT
Zach Ertz, $3,700 VS GB – I had clicked in perma-fade after Week 5, and even now, I have no confidence in this play. It’s a close-one-eye-as-you-click-the-green-plus-sign situation.
Here’s the deal though. Ertz was slated to have a big role in the offense this season, before getting injured in Week 1. In Weeks 5-8, he was back, and he was pedestrian, which is actually disparaging to pedestrians. Some can be pretty spry. Things took a turn, starting in Week 9, and in the last three weeks, he’s averaged just under nine targets, just under seven receptions, and just over 60 yards, with a score.
The corresponding timeline in coach-speak goes like this. In early August, head coach Doug Pederson said he expects to feature Ertz in the red zone and offensive coordinator Frank Reich said tight ends would have a major role in the offense. After those four weeks of nothing, Weeks 5-8, the OC said Ertz and quarterback Carson Wentz were out of sync. Then, after a great Week 9, the OC said he wants to feature Ertz in the red zone. Then, Ertz got a couple red zone looks including his first score of the season.
Meanwhile the Green Bay secondary soon is going to need to start pedestrians off the street. They lost Demetri Goodson to an ACL tear last Sunday, to go with Sam Shields (IR-concussion) and Damarious Randall (groin surgery) on the list of missing defensive backs for Green Bay.
After those three paragraphs, and my confidence is up to might-tell-someone-I’m-playing-him-if-they-ask, which is something I guess.
WIDE RECEIVER
Of the twenty-six teams playing Sunday or Monday, only four of them have their highest price receiver with a salary below $5,000. If you include A.J. Green and Jeremy Maclin, who are injured and priced at $7,800 and $5,000 respectively, that leaves just two teams: The Bears (Cameron Meredith – $4,700) and The 49ers (Jeremy Kerley – $3,500). Things are getting dicey here in Grout Land!
YADA, YADA
I’ve got several Flyer Wide Receivers to mention.
Jermaine Kearse, $3,000 AT TB – Led the team in targets last week against a team that’s fourth in WR TDs allowed.
Malcolm Mitchell, $3,000 AT NYJ – Chris Hogan who? Oh yeah, Chris Hogan, the guy that was limited in practice again. If Hogan is in, Mitchell is out.
Braxton Miller, $3,000 VS SD – Playing ahead of Willer Fuller and getting targeted ahead of DeAndre Hopkins.
Mohamed Sanu, $4,300 VS ARI – If Patterson plays Jones to a draw, Sanu benefits.
Jordan Matthews, $5,000 VS GB – All that stuff about Ertz? It is true, but so is all the stuff about the Green Bay secondary. That target totals for Matthews, 10, 10, 10, and 15 going back four weeks, are excellent. He just needs to find the paint in a shootout versus the Packers to make good on that $5,000 price tag.
GANG GROUT
Tyler Boyd, $4,000 AT BAL – You could easily include Brandon LaFell, $4,600 as well. The Ravens are the NFL leader in least yards per rush allowed, least rush yards per game allowed, and least rushing scores allowed. It’s not rocket science figuring out how the Bengals will try to attack the Ravens. (Ironically, the spiraling action of a passed football does include a little rocket science!)
LaFell got one more target than Boyd last week, though Boyd had two more receptions, 22 more yards, and a one-yard touchdown. Now, with the Ravens top corner, Jimmy Smith, likely out, playing Boyd this week is smart, and that’s a scientific fact!
DeVante Parker, $4,700 VS SF – “The Dolphins number one receiver?” he said with his head tilted to one side.
Hidden underneath the obvious story line of the Dolphins becoming a run-first team is that their target distribution has changed. Parker has led the team in targets each of the last two weeks, logging lines of 5-for-103 and 8-for-79-1. The #14 overall pick is one of those size and speed guys draftniks drool over, and now he’s getting the usage to capitalize on it.
Meanwhile, San Francisco running a lot of plays, and it benefiting their opponents fantasy players is a clichéd statement. It’s also unequivocally true. Chip Kelly is basically the Oprah of fantasy.
Running back.
Quarterback.
Wide Receiver.
Miami Dolphins.
RUNNING BACK
The best backs have all the good matchups this week. David Johnson, Jay Ajayi, and Melvin Gordon, coupled with Lamar Miller and Rashad Jennings, all having the softest of sledding this week means the lower priced, less consistent backs have mountains of snow to move.
When you combine that with the fact that that elite running backs have equaled top end wide receivers in top-end potential, while far surpassing them in worst-case projection, it becomes pretty apparent that your roster construction won’t include many Grout backs this week. Maybe you want to be contrarian, or maybe you are a glutton for punishment. Either way, here they are, the recommended running backs priced at $5,500-or-less.
YADA, YADA
Chris Ivory, $4,200 AT BUF – Might we finally get consolidation of running back carries in Jacksonville? Maybe. If you believe the coach, no. If you believe a guy not participating in practice all week? It’s as black and white as Yeldon’s race and Ivory’s last name. Ivory has a history of effectiveness when given enough work, which is the reason he’s rarely been given that work. We don’t get to have nice things. If Yeldon sits, against at team that’s allowed the sixth-most rush touchdowns, it’ll be … well … nice.
Jeremy Hill, $3,900 AT BAL – Another one of those volume at a discount plays, with Gio Bernard having played his last snap this season. Despite the poor matchup, he’s got multiple touchdown upside for under $4K.
GANG GROUT
Wendell Smallwood, $4,300 VS GB – Ryan Mathews looks unlikely to play, which opens up some playing time. Still, I think I’m done playing the “who is the lead back” in Philadelphia game. Worst. Game. Ever. Here’s a better game. It’s called “Who gets the ball in the red zone for the Eagles?” (Working Title) The way you play is that you guess anyone except Darren Sproles and you win.
Mathews? – YUP!
Smallwood? – YOU WIN!
Kenyon Barner? – DING, DING, DING!
Wentz Keeper? – NAILED IT!
Brian Westbrook on a shuffle pass? – FOR SURE!
QB Eagles on the sweep? – UNSTOPPABLE!
Also, the formally stout Packers run defense has sprung more than a couple leaks. Lines allowed going backward from last week: 137-and-3, 123-and-1, 60-and-2, 58-total-yards-and-2, and a 157-yard effort a couple weeks prior to that string. Leaky like the Titanic, actually.
Matt Forte, $5,500 VS NE – I think DraftKings got too cute here. Pricing 13 starting running backs higher than Forte, who showed up on the DFS Feud board in Week 11 with the fourth most carries in the NFL, just doesn’t make sense. Sure, he’s ceding plenty of snaps to Bilal Powell, but he’s still getting the bulk of the work. Also in a home matchup against New England, you know the Jets will be full-throttle all game.
This is the last opportunity you’ll have to roster Matt Forte at $5,500-or-lower in salary. Act accordingly!
QUARTERBACK
Seven quarterbacks are over $6,500 this slate. Half are within $500 of the minimum. These prices are sagging more than jeans in the 90s!
YADA, YADA
Eli Manning, $6,500 AT CLE – When the plug-and-play any quarterback against Cleveland role is filled by a guy averaging 240-and-3 over the last three weeks, you wonder about them calling this a Skill Game.
WARNING – We’re due for a Bad Eli game. Be warned.
GANG GROUT
Derek Carr, $6,100 VS CAR – “You know, when you’ve got the sixth highest scoring quarterback on the slate up against a team that’s allowed the fifth most passing yards, the highest I’m willing to price him is as the tenth most expensive quarterback.” – Someone at DraftKings, who is about to lose his job in the merger.
Somehow, the decision is even easier than that. Carolina is coming off a rivalry game victory, in the division and at home, and now, they are flying across the country for a non-conference let showdown against the Raiders. Also, Carolina will be without their defensive lynchpin, Luke Kuechly, and their best rusher, Mario Addison. It doesn’t get better than this.
Like the Demolition Derby, just go full-on Carr v CAR.
MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT
I’m sorry Neal. It’s not you, it’s me (and Ben Koyack!)