The Fantasy Grout, Week 3: Get that "S" Outta Here

by Luke Louison (GiantBallofOil) Last Updated 2015-09-28 22:04:18

The thing is, we sound dumb.

No, I’m not referring to us trying to toe the line between game of skill and gambling, though that might be the case. Ditto for Roger Goodell, though at least Ol’ Rog acknowledges he’d be all for gambling, if it made him money. About that Rog…

What I am referring to is the acronym, DFS.

Man, we as a people sure do love our acronyms, and in the daily fantasy space, it is no different. Last week, I made a stink about how we are clinging to the “CJ-something-K” naming tool for Chris Johnson. On cue, jdtrey, unironically goes with “CJ1/2K” as his Grout for a Shout pick*. jdtrey is not alone either. It is rampant in our country. The fact that Fox News has yet to abbreviate Barack Obama to “B.O.” and make jokes that he stinks is shocking to me.

With the acronym, DFS, it has become ATM & PIN. No, you are not going to the ATM machine (Automated Teller Machine Machine) to enter your PIN number (Personal Identification Number Number). You sound like you have a speech impediment, or Tourette’s. Ironic by intention, it is called RAS Syndrome (Redundant Acronym Syndrome Syndrome).

In our little corner of the acronym world, the redundancy is using “DFS” when we are not referring to overarching “sports,” but one in particular. Just as a sampling, and if nothing else, because JMToWin has made calling out other writers a thing now, here is what you can find on the RotoGrinders website currently:

—From the first sentence of headChopper’s Leveraging Vegas – CFB Targets: Week 4 article:

“In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.” College Football Daily Fantasy Sports targets.

—From the title of ezellmt’s golf article this week:

“PGA DFS Targets: TOUR Championship” Professional Golf Association Daily Fantasy Sports Targets.

—From JMToWin himself, this, the first sentence from his NFL Edge article this week:

“Each week this NFL season, the legendary JMToWin (sic) will bring you premium DFS NFL analysis like no one else in the industry can.” Daily Fantasy Sports National Football League analysis.

This is not meant to be mean-spirited. In fact, if you are not reading the NFL Edge, you do not know the NFL as well as you could know it, and it probably means you don’t have access to Incentives. Click here or here to sign up through RotoGrinders.

Really, if you consider what RotoGrinders is all about in general, we are giving our potential opponents information to make them better. The reason we do it is to improve the community, as a whole. This “DFS” example is no different. In fact, given that the price of words is free, consider this the first Fantasy Grout recommendation of the week:

Not Using DFS Unless You Are Referring to the Industry as a Whole, $Free – Remember that acronyms are like boy bands: They are easy to break apart (RIP One Direction). If you are referring to one specific sport, do not hesitate to fire off a DFNFL, a DFF, or just replace DFS with the word “Daily”. In fact, given its floor and ceiling, you should feel comfortable using “Daily” when describing your cash and tournament lineups this week!

Now, before we get to the rest of the low priced players you will need to use in order to hold those high priced boulders together, let’s talk a little about last week:

* Congrats, by the way, to bigfink, who was the only one to select Crockett Gillmore’s 10.320 PT/$K in the Grout for a Shout comments competition. Only Travis Benjamin, had he been picked, could have beat Gillmore’s value.

LAST WEEK

Much like the Planeteers individually, the separate position sections describing last week’s Highest Scoring and Optimal lineups were not nearly as effective as they would be joined together to form the Captain Planet of lineups. “By our positions combined, this is the Optimal Lineup. Go Lineup!”

HIGHEST SCORING/OPTIMAL LINEUP

Unlike last week, where you had to make some tweaks to go from the highest scoring lineup, regardless of salary, to the optimal lineup, the top lineup this week easily fits under the $50K cap. Also, unlike last week, which boasted five Fantasy Grout priced players, this week only four position players from that price range made the cut: Matt Jones, DeAngelo Williams, Allen Robinson, and Travis Benjamin.

It is also worth noting not one was so much as mentioned in this space last week. Still, suggesting Matt Jones, the Redskins backup running back against the Rams front-seven, Allen Robinson, off a one-catch game and against Brent Grimes, or Travis Benjamin, in a game where his quarterback would complete eight passes, all seem crazy, even in hindsight. DeAngelo Williams on the other hand, at home against San Francisco, was an oversight in hindsight.

The Fantasy Grout though had no shame this week, as its quarterback, Andy Dalton, put up a solid 3.717 PT/$K, its wide receivers, Terrance Williams, Donte Moncrief, and Brandon Coleman, hit 4.381, 6.130, and 1.909 PT/$K respectively, and its tight end, Heath Miller, finished at 3.286 PT/$K. Only its running backs, thanks in part to Carlos Hyde’s time missed due injury and in part to Chris Johnson’s general Chris Johnson-ness, didn’t collectively hit 3.0 PT/$K. Still, given that the running back position this week only featured two scores over 25, both Gang Grout RBs finishing with a PT/$K between 1.85 and 1.95 should be considered in the same light as the fattiness of almonds: they were bad, but it was a “good bad.”

On to this week!

QUARTERBACK

Price-low, sweet DraftKings…

Last week, there were 15 signal callers priced at $6,500 or below. This week, there are only 12 above that price-point, which leaves 20 options from which to choose. Twenty? A Grout-QB Cornucopia!

TYROD TAYLOR, $5,800 AT MIA – Twenty options, but there is only one The Rod. What are we doing with his price here, DraftKings? He is the fifth-highest scoring DK QB for the year. The matchup versus Miami, by the numbers, is neutral to bad, but consecutive games against Kirk Cousins and Blake Bortles will do that to your numbers. I did this math two weeks ago, and I’ll do it again here: If The Rod puts up a measly 175 yards passing, 40 rushing, and a pass TD, he returns 2.6 PT/$K. We now know that two total scores is more likely than one, with him going for four scores against his divisional rival last week.

And dat rushing doe! Like Teri Hatcher’s boobs in Seinfeld, his rushing is real and it is spectacular. After gashing the Dolphins for multiple 25 yard runs, I could see him at the post-game presser, dressed in some sort of hideous shirt, quoting Dom Toretto: “I live my NFL life, one quarter-field at a time.”

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

JAMEIS WINSTON, $5,400 AT HOU – Houston is the second-best matchup a quarterback can have so far this year, thanks mainly due quarterback rushing. This week for Winston, there will be more rushin’ than vodka. More than Putin? This was poor.

DIGRESSION OF THE WEEK

How can it be so difficult to pour coffee out of that little spout on a coffee pot? It looks like a regular spout you might see on a pitcher of beer, for example, only all scrunched up. It’s like a regular spout thought the door to the screen porch was open, and ran right into it. Is the spout intended to restrict how fast we pour because I don’t need my coffee in fifteen minutes. I need it now? Anyway, I have a Lou Gehrig-esque streak of spilling coffee from it, and there’s no end in sight. Pour over the sink, you say? What do I look like, a quitter?

ANDY DALTON, $5,700 AT BAL – Yes, you … red … that right, Dalton for the third straight week.

RUNNING BACK

In a slow decline, first fifteen, then fourteen, and now thirteen running backs are priced over our $5,500 available price, which means our field of Grout RBs is ever expanding. Of the top eleven running back scorers last week, only two, Adrian Peterson and Latavius Murray, were too pricey for us. There is value to be had, if we can only find it!

MELVIN GORDON III, $5,000 AT MIN – It’s time. Look, I had as much fun as anyone riding the Woodhead train. Short TDs, Garbage Time Receptions, Wheeeee! But, it’s time.

There is simply a skills discrepancy between the two Charger backs, as evidenced by Gordon’s three 20+ yard runs last week. The only thing holding their prices within $600 is the fact that Gordon hasn’t taken one of those long runs home yet. It’s not a matter of if but when. Also, Gordon out-carried Woodhead 2-to-1 last week, has had a significant edge in YPC, each of the last two weeks, is averaging two catches a game, and is the third generation model of “Melvin Gordons”.

DION LEWIS, $4,200 VS JAC – To justify this play, you have to go full Matthew McConaughey from A Time To Kill.

I want to tell you a story. I’m going to ask you to close your eyes while I tell this story. I’m going to tell you the story of a running back. He has gotten 73.3% of his team’s running back carries through two weeks. He’s workhorse. Also, he’s averaged 4.95 yards per carry over that workload. He’s effective. He’s gotten fourteen targets for his team as well, catching 10 of them for a 149 yards. Over those two games, he’s also scored once.

Now, I want you to imagine he’s playing a game at home. His team is the second-biggest favorite of the weekend, and his team has the second-highest total of the weekend. Can you picture that workhorse?

Now, imagine he is NOT a Patriot.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

CHRIS POLK, $3,400 VS TB – Lost in the Arian Foster hoopla is the fact that last weekend, Chris Polk took Alfred Blue’s job and ran with it. Literally.

JOSEPH RANDLE, $5,100 VS ATL – The nut-RB matchup, when the other option is to let Brandon Weeden throw.

GIOVANI BERNARD, $4,700 AT BAL – Remember when Bernard, not Hill, was the back you wanted? Of course you do, it was last week.

DANNY WOODHEAD, $4,400 AT MIN – Shhhh. Don’t tell Melvin. Wheeeeeeeee.

WIDE RECEIVER

While every other position is increasing your cheap options, things are getting pretty tight on the wide receiver salary front. This week, eighteen teams have a single wide receiver above our $5,000 price point, and seven more have two receivers with too steep a salary.

DONTE MONCRIEF, $4,800 AT TEN – Doesn’t “$4,800 at Ten” sound like the drop-off instructions for an amateurish hostage letter.

Tied for 17th in WR targets through two weeks, despite being the “WR3,” Moncrief is finally putting those tools to work. With T.Y. Hilton healthy enough to draw coverage from the best cornerback, while not healthy enough to beat that corner to get open, it ends up being a perfect storm for Moncrief, who is quickly laying the groundwork for the question, “Do you remember that time Andre Johnson played for Indianapolis? No? I am almost sure he did, but I don’t really remember it either.”

STEVIE JOHNSON, $4,300 AT MIN – Doesn’t “$4,300 at Min” sound like the negotiation involved in that amateurish hostage situation?

If Johnson’s price is going to continue to creep up at the rate it has been, $3,700, $4,200, $4,300, etc. and if Stevie keeps catching five balls, including a score, every week, I’m going to go ahead and recommend him for the next two weeks right now. Too cheap. Plus, with Ladarius Green likely out with a concussion this week, Johnson will get more Targets than the Minnesota suburbs.

MICHAEL CRABTREE, $4,600 AT CLE – “Post-hype” sleeper is more of a fantasy baseball term, but it certainly applies here. Crabtree, the former “can’t miss guy” is playing to a draw, Amari Cooper, the current “can’t miss guy.” They’ve both got 13ish catches for 150ish yards and a TD on the year. Crabtree just happens to be the more targeted, discounted version. With how big of a bargain he is, and given the Raiders’ jersey color, it’s just a shame he can’t play on Friday.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

TERRANCE WILLIAMS, $4,600 VS ATL – The thing you can say about gobs of targets from Brandon Weeden is that at least it’s gobs of targets.

JAMES JONES, $4,800 VS KC – Now, catching touchdowns is good, right? Great. Just checking.

QUINCY ENUNWA, $3,000 VS PHI – Who? Exactly.

TIGHT END

Pending Jason Witten, there are either eight or nine active tight ends priced over $3,500 this week. With only eight at the same lofty salary last week, you can’t help but raise an eyebrow. What’s a tight end gotta do to get a price hike around here?

JARED COOK, $2,800 VS PIT – Tied for fifth in tight end receptions and seventh in tight end yards, he’s an under-the-radar deep threat for the Rams. Against the Steelers, who have allowed the fourth most receptions, second most yards and most touchdowns to tight ends, you will be able to cross off “under-the-radar” by next week.

LEFT IN THE BUCKET

KYLE RUDOLPH, $3,300 VS SD – Two TDs this week, one for the good matchup with the Chargers and a second to make up for the score that I predicted last week and that he didn’t get.