The GPP Scene: Year 2, Week 10

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-07-13 06:41:26

Welcome to another edition of The GPP Scene! I got back to the regular programming this week, which breaks down as follows, in case you are joining us for the first time: I will enter the $10 FanDuel Line Drive GPP five days a week with three different teams, and only those three teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

Team #1 – Two-team stacks with 4 hitters from each team, finished off by whatever pitcher I like best that fits within my remaining cap. ¹
Team #2 – My favorite expensive pitcher of the day with a team of lesser hitters.
Team #3 – A total punt at pitcher surrounded by a team of better hitters.

¹ – This is my general GPP strategy on FD.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the most recent week of results!

MONDAY, JUNE 29TH

Team #1 – I opted for the chalk stacks of the Brewers (against Sean O’Sullivan) and the Dodgers (against Allen Webster) and went contrarian with R.A. Dickey as my pitcher. Both offenses performed well, as the Brewers scored seven runs while the Dodgers scored six. Unfortunately, I wasn’t on the best bats of the bunch, and Dickey had an underwhelming six point performance. As a result, this team fell way short of where it should have been given the offenses I was targeting.

• FINISH: 30.25 PTS / 2101 OF 2873 FOR $0.

Team #2 – On a night that was devoid of any true aces, I simply chose the most expensive pitcher as my ace, and he had a terrible matchup (Clay Buchholz against the Blue Jays). I had almost no confidence in this squad, and ironically it ended up being my best team of the week. Buchholz was the highest scoring pitcher of the night with 16 FanDuel points, and the bats came through. Jonathan Lucroy, Mike Trout, and Shin-Soo Choo all had big nights, and they helped lead this team over the 50 fantasy point mark. Once you get there, it’s generally a good indicator that you are going to finish in the money on most nights.

• FINISH: 53 PTS / 235 OF 2873 FOR $30.

Team #3 – Lance McCullers was simply too cheap on FanDuel for me to ignore him at a price point below $7,000. The matchup was a tough one against a Royals team that doesn’t strike out a whole lot, but there weren’t any other punt plays that I liked. McCullers delivered a fine outing with 16 fantasy points, and both Yasmani Grandal and Mike Trout had fine games at the plate, tallying 8+ points each. The rest of the bats were disappointing, and three players finished in the negative. That was enough to keep this team just short of the cash line.

• FINISH: 39.25 PTS / 1156 OF 2873 FOR $0.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 1ST

Team #1 – The mini-stacks of choice were the Orioles against Nick Martinez (who got demoted after the game) and the Diamondbacks against lefty Brett Anderson as I always like stacking Arizona against a LHP. In retrospect, that was probably a mistake since Anderson is a reverse-splits pitcher. Chris Heston was a perfect fit at pitcher on this team, and he managed just one strikeout on the night. He was, however, in line for a win until Justin Bour won the game with a walk-off home run for the Marlins. Neither of the stacked teams scored more than four runs, and this was basically a team that was in the tank before it got too far off the starting block.

• FINISH: 21.50 PTS / 2173 OF 2438 FOR $0.

Team #2 – If you didn’t have Carlos Carrasco as your pitcher on this slate, you didn’t have much of a chance. He was 33% owned and came one out away from a no-hitter. His final line was still an impressive one, as he totaled 13 strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings and picked up an easy victory along with 24.66 FanDuel points. This team had Carlos Carrasco, so it was my only real shot to cash. The bats were the downfall. Only Aaron Hill got more than 1.25, as the rest of my hitters struggled mightily. Inf act, Hill was the only hitter on this team to log an extra base hit. All told, this was a waste of a great performance from Carrasco.

• FINISH: 37.16 PTS / 1000 OF 2438 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Of course, this team couldn’t have Carrasco on it. Matt Wisler did fine as the punt choice of the day, tallying 15.33 fantasy points at basically a 0% ownership. This was also my one roster with Neil Walker, who went off for two singles and two home runs. He actually scored more fantasy points than every pitcher outside of Carrasco on this night. Those two performances were enough to put this team ahead of Team #2, but it still wasn’t enough to cash. Pairing Carrasco and Walker together would have been the ticket to success, but I didn’t happen to do that on any of my squads tonight.

• FINISH: 42.33 PTS / 631 OF 2438 FOR $0.

THURSDAY, JULY 3RD

Team #1 – Well, I liked the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays for stacks, which made me go extremely cheap at pitcher with Matt Boyd for Toronto. Matt Boyd did not record an out and gave up seven runs. It doesn’t matter how good your stacks do when your pitcher scores negative seven points. Let’s move along…

• FINISH: 19.25 PTS / 1912 OF 2298 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Mr. Max Scherzer was the unquestioned ace of the day facing a Braves lineup without Freddie Freeman. He pitched well in a losing effort, allowing 2 runs in 8 1/3 innings while striking out nine. That was good for 15.33 FanDuel points, which was good but not great for his exorbitant salary. The lack of a win really dampened his final score, as you need a win from a pitcher of that price tag. The cheap bats on this team disappointed, too. I had three San Diego bats against Tim Cooney, and they totaled just one fantasy point. There simply wasn’t enough production here.

• FINISH: 27.08 PTS / 1337 OF 2298 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Thankfully I didn’t use Boyd as my cheap pitcher since he was thrown in with the stacks. Kevin Gausman and his strikeout upside was a far better choice, as he tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Rangers. Unfortunately, Baltimore provided him with no run support and he left in a scoreless game. A victory might have brought this team close to the cash line, as this was a lower scoring fantasy day. A.J. Pollock and Yasmany Tomas were the best performing bats, but I also had a few of Baltimore’s hitters here along with Gausman. Guys like Manny Machado and Troy Tulowitzki disappointed mightily for their big price tags, and this team came up short of the money.

• FINISH: 30.83 PTS / 984 OF 2298 FOR $0.

SATURDAY, JULY 4TH

Team #1 – The mini-stacks of choice were Colorado (vs. Patrick Corbin) and Minnesota (vs. Joe Blanton) and I felt good about both teams in their respective matchups. A mid-range pitcher in Alex Wood also fit on this squad, and I liked his matchup against the Phillies. What looked good on paper didn’t turn out so good, however. I was missing almost all the hitters that did damage on both sides, as none of my bats put up more than 2.5 points despite the Twins scoring five runs and the Rockies scoring three. Alex Wood was largely ineffective even though he picked up a win, and this team finished near the bottom of the standings.

• FINISH: 18.75 PTS / 1125 OF 1149 FOR $0.

Team #2 – The premier pitching matchup of the night was Matt Harvey vs. Zack Greinke, so one of them had to be my ace of choice. I knew the masses would be on Greinke, so I pivoted to Harvey as my ace. It was not the right move. Harvey struggled through five innings, giving up three runs and striking out just four while getting saddled with a loss. Greinke, meanwhile, gave up no runs in seven innings. The bats were fairly good here, led by Joe Mauer 11.75 point night. This team also had Cameron Maybin, who logged 13.5 points. The bad news is that the rest of the bats struggled, and there wasn’t enough pop to overcome Harvey’s disappointing six points.

• FINISH: 37.25 PTS / 660 OF 1149 FOR $0.

Team #3 – I went with Jimmy Nelson as the punt pitcher of the night, as he had a reasonable price tag of $7,100 and some strikeout upside against the Reds. The use of him as a cheap pitcher allowed me to get several bats in the projected high-scoring game between Colorado and Arizona. Unfortunately, the big bats struggled in this game. Nolan Arenado and Troy Tulowitzki combined for 2.75 points, and it was hard to bust the cash line with that low of a total from the two most expensive hitters on my team. Nelson was solid, and the two Arizona bats I had did okay (David Peralta and Yasmany Tomas), but this team fell short on a night where there were several big offensive performances. Not having any exposure to the two home runs and six RBI’s from Kris Bryant was the main downfall of my rosters.

• FINISH: 39.66 PTS / 551 OF 1149 FOR $0.

SUNDAY, JULY 5TH

Team #1 – I mini-stacked the Cardinals (against Ian Kennedy) and the Diamondbacks (against Jorge De La Rosa) with Jordan Zimmermann at pitcher against the GIants. I liked the way this stack fit together, and I spared no expense to get the Diamondbacks hitters that traditionally hit LHP well (Goldschmidt, Tomas, and Pollock). This worked out okay, as Tomas hit a home run and Goldschmidt had an RBI double and a run scored. However, the Cardinals bats were the downfall of this team. My St. Louis hitters scored a total of 1.25 fantasy points, and the team’s bats are ice cold right now. Zimmermann was fantastic with 18 points, but the poor performance from the Cardinals kept this team well short of cashing.

• FINISH: 37.75 PTS / 504 OF 862 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Gerrit Cole seemed like the safest ace of the day, as he has allowed more than three earned runs just once all season. He held true to form, allowing three runs over eight strong innings while earning a victory. The bats were solid on this team as well, with Kole Calhoun going for a big game at a cheap price tag against Colby Lewis and Adam Jones hitting a pair of doubles. Unfortunately, Calhoun was 40% owned in the favorable matchup, and it was a high-scoring Sunday afternoon. This team placed well in cash games but was a few points short of a tournament profit.

• FINISH: 45.75 PTS / 261 OF 862 FOR $0.

Team #3 – The punt pitcher team was solid on many levels. I mentioned in the Grind Down article on Sunday that I really liked Taylor Jungmann chances as a punt pitching option, and he came through in a big way with 15 fantasy points, tossing eight sterling innings against the Reds. The bats came through, too. Carlos Correa had a big game with 11.75 FanDuel points, the aforementioned Calhoun was on this team as well, and Bryce Harper had 6.75 FanDuel points himself. The problem is that these three hitters were the three highest-owned players on this team. Negative point totals from Miguel Montero, Matt Carpenter, and Yasiel Puig left this team just short of the cash line despite a fairly solid point total.

• FINISH: 47.50 PTS / 214 OF 862 FOR $0.

FINAL RESULTS: THROUGH TEN WEEKS

MY ANALYSIS

I wish I would have chosen to write another strategy piece this week as opposed to firing another $150 at this thing. The constantly fluctuating size of the $10 GPP is frustrating me, as is the super long $25 cash line and the super long $30 cash line. It literally takes a top three or four finish to make this tournament worthwhile, and most players are going to end up in the red from entering it. Of course, the same can be said about most large field GPP’s. I just wish that FanDuel would stop pushing this thing from 900 entries to 3,000 entries to 1,200 entries every single day. It’s hard to play the same roster construction principles with a constantly fluctuating field size.

That being said, I am sort of using the field size argument as an excuse. June was not my best month, and it was in fact my worst month since last September. It happens. It’s time to dust myself off and hit the dog days of summer hard. I am looking forward to the All Star Break as a nice time to recharge the batteries and come out swinging in the second half of the season.