DFS Alerts
Chris Young has allowed 15 HRs to just LHBs this season
It’s not often that Donaldson (151 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Encarnacion (144 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are not at the top of the Toronto board no matter who they’re facing, but Chris Young has such drastic splits (LHBs .387 wOBA, 40.6 Hard% – RHBs .253 wOBA, 32.2 Hard% since 2015) that Saunders (117 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015), leadoff man Carrera (86 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Smoak (106 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be better values tonight, though all five remain strong overall bats tonight. Young walked six of 18 batters in his last start, allowing just one hit, but it was a HR to a LHB. He’s now allowed 15 to LHBs this season and 22 overall.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak
Carlos Carrasco has a SwStr above 11% in five straight starts and had a 55.6 GB% in June
Carlos Carrasco only struck out 14 of 26 Blue Jays in his last start after previously shutting out Detroit on four hits and has now at least pitched into the eighth inning in three straight games. He’s had a SwStr above 11% in each of his last five starts now with a 55.6 GB% in June. The Tigers are good offense, but have a 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP. Carrasco is one of tonight’s top two arms and a top value on either site. Both left and right-handed bats have a wOBA in the .280s against him since last season, but he has allowed a HR in seven of 10 starts with a 34.3 Hard%. There’s still little interest in Detroit bats, but two affordable ones may remain in play if not using Carrasco. Miguel Cabrera (162 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since last season) has to be considered whenever he is less than $4K on DK, $3.5K on FD. He has a 201 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% over the last week. Steven Moya (124 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP career) bats 7th, but costs around $2.5K on either site. He has a 93.9 mph aEV this season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Steven Moya Tim Lincecum has a 5.27 SIERA and a 4.6% K-BB% through three starts this season
Lincecum has not pitched all that great since making his return to the majors. Lincecum has allowed at least 4 ER in two of three starts and has only made it past the fifth inning once. Somewhat surprisingly, Lincecum has really struggled against RHBs dating back to last season (5.02 xFIP, .396 wOBA, 1.29 HR/9 since 2015) and has been just as bad through his first three starts with the Angels. The Rays have a few interesting bats that could be utilized as one offs or a tournament mini-stack. Evan Longoria (122 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .253 ISO vs RHP) is the top play in the Rays lineup. Corey Dickerson (.264 ISO vs RHP) and Brad Miller (.217 ISO vs RHP) can also be considered in tournaments given their power upside.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Tim Lincecum
Bryce Harper has a 171 wRC+ and 52.4 Hard% over the last week
Zach Davies was pounded by the Dodgers in his last start (three HRs) and has not increased his SwStr rate at all over the last month (8.0% is the same as his season rate) despite the recent spike in K% (24.6 over the last month). LHBs (.319 wOBA) have been slightly better than RHBs (.299 wOBA) against him in his short career, but considering that Ramos (164 wRC+, .206 vs RHP this season) is the only RH National that can hit RHP, we weren’t planning on going in that direction anyway. He, along with the three lefties excluding Revere, all with a wRC+ above 140 over the last week, are probably better values on FanDuel with all having price tags above $4.5K on DraftKings. Harper (171 wRC+, 52.4 Hard%) and Espinosa (285 wRC+, 70.6 Hard%) have both been hitting the ball particularly hard over the last week.
Other tagged players: Zach Davies, Wilson Ramos, Danny Espinosa Red Sox have a 122 wRC+ at home and 120 wRC+ vs RHP, but also some expensive bats
A.J. Griffin hasn’t been bad, but a .236 BABIP and 7.3 HR/FB are propping up his low ERA, while his 90 mph fastball has somehow been good for a 24.3 K% despite just a league average SwStr% (9.0). There’s no interest in using him against an offense projected to score 5.25 runs, but we’re considering whether it’s worth paying up for bats against him. While both LH and RH bats have a wOBA below .300 against him this season, LHBs have hit the ball hard 38.3% of the time. David Ortiz (208 wRC+, .392 ISO vs RHP this season) is one of our top bats as always. He can’t be priced high enough not to retain some value against RHP. From there is gets a little more difficult as Boston bats project well, but will cost quite a bit. Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley all have a wRC+ above 130 vs RHP this season, while all except Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Bradley have a wRC+ above 190 over the last week. While the top six all appear to be fairly potent int his spot, cost is likely to keep their value marginal.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: A.J. Griffin, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley David Price has allowed a HR in nine straight starts, but has a 26.7 K% over the last month
David Price allowed six runs in 2.1 innings two starts back against these Rangers and that might scare some people off him tonight, but the truth his that his strikeout rate is back up over 26% over the last month and usually gets himself deep into games. A HR in nine straight games is also a bit concerning, but it can be overcome with innings and strikeouts, especially at a cost of $10K or less. Price is not the strongest arm on the board tonight or the best value, but he’s part of that next tier on a deep board tonight. Rangers bats haven’t been bad against LHP (103 wRC+) and that’s probably mostly due to their two through four hitters tonight. All three RHBs have a wRC+ above 150 and ISO above .200 vs LHP this season. Beltre (six extra base hits in 42 PAs with a 97.1 mph aEV in his last seven batted balls against Price) and Rua may provide some value for $2.6K on FanDuel, but RHBs have just a .283 wOBA against Price since last season.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Ryan Rua Phillies projected for a surprising 4.5 runs as LHBs have .409 wOBA vs Foltynewicz since 2015
Mike Foltynewicz is not allowing a ton of hard contact 3.6 Hard-Soft%, but does have a 17.1 HR/FB being kept in check with an 84.2 LOB%. The Phillies are the worst home offense in baseball (65 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%), but have a 133 wRC+ and 17.0 HR/FB over the last seven days. While batters from both sides have hit him well since last season, LHBs have a .409 wOBA, keeping them all on the board at moderate or low prices for a team surprisingly projected to score 4.5 runs tonight. Odubel Herrera (127 wRC+ vs RHP career) is the top bat and only costly one. Cody Asche (107 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP this season) is a great bargain on either site for around $3K or less. The Phillies offer a likely contrarian and affordable stack with a higher end run projection if paying up for pitching tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Mike Foltynewicz Nothing new here - Cubs large favorites in only afternoon game
John Lackey takes the mound today for the Cubs who are favored by over two runs against the visiting Reds. The Cubs face LHP Brandon Finnegan who has allowed a .320+ wOBA to both sides of the plate including 13 HR’s to RH hitters in 73 2/3 IP. Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras are the top options for the Cubs with Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, and Addison Russell also worthy of utilization if you are playing the all day slate. David Ross at catcher, batting seventh, is super intriguing at his near minimum price tag considering he has a .495 wOBA and .371 ISO against LHP this season (albeit in just 35 at bats). Lackey has held hitters from both sides of the plate to under a .293 wOBA this season and is in play as a SP option as a huge (-240) favorite. Lackey does have a career .326 wOBA allowed to LHP so taking a flyer on the power bats of Joey Votto or Jay Bruce wouldn’t be out of line, especially in GPP’s.
As reported by: Reds official Twitter feed Other tagged players: John Lackey, Jay Bruce
Urias was allowed to throw 100 pitches last start, Orioles have a 95 wRC+ and 22.0 K% vs LHP
Julio Urias walked six in his last start, but had walked exactly one in his previous five starts. He also struck out six and perhaps most encouragingly, was allowed to throw 100 pitches. Baltimore may appear an intimidating opponent tonight, but have just a 95 wRC+ and 22.0 K% vs LHP and are without their DH in pitcher’s park tonight. For less than $7K on DraftKings (and not much more on FanDuel), he has the talent to blow past his price tag with at least six Ks in each of his last five starts. RHBs do have a .351 wOBA and 36.2 Hard% against Urias so far, so although they may not be great values, Mark Trumbo (102 wRC+, .349 ISO vs LHP this season) and Manny Machado (168 wRC+, .256 ISO vs LHP this season) are still worthy of consideration if not playing Urias.
Other tagged players: Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado Gallardo has a 5.42 SIERA, 4.6% K-BB% on the season
Gallardo is coming off one of his best starts of the season against the Padres. While the Dodgers present a tougher challenge in some regards, they have not exactly mashed RHP (93 wRC+, .308 wOBA, .151 ISO). Gallardo has actually been slightly unlucky thus far this season (.315 BABIP, 66.1% LOB%), hinting that he may be do for some improvement to his numbers soon. This is a matchup that we don’t want to target the pitcher, and we don’t want to necessarily load up on Dodgers bats. If wanting to roster hitters from this game, the best options to consider in the Dodgers lineups are Corey Seager (153 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .237 ISO vs RHP) and Trayce Thompson (124 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .242 ISO vs RHP).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Yovani Gallardo Solarte has a 279 wRC+ (53.3 Hard%) last seven days, LHBs have a .387 wOBA vs Bradley this year
Archie Bradley has an impressive 23.6 K% and the Padres have just a 78 wRC+ with a 24.0 K% vs RHP and that’s probably going to lead a lot of players towards him on a four game slate tonight and it’s not a bad idea for $6.6K on FanDuel, but an $8.5K price tag on DraftKings will make you look at his flaws a little harder. Those include an 11.1 BB% and a hitter’s park where he’s allowed seven HRs in four starts this season. He did strike out nine Padres at home about a month ago, but has struck out five or fewer in four of his last five starts, going fewer than six innings three times. He is by no means a lock for a big performance tonight. In fact, LHBs have a .337 wOBA against him in his career (.387 this year), making Yangervis Solarte (116 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) a potentially great value, especially with Second Base eligibility, along with both other LHBs near the minimum price tonight (Dickerson and Schimpf). Solarte has a 279 wRC+ and 53.3 Hard% over the last week. RHB Wil Myers (124 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since last season) has a 272 wRC+ and 60.0 Hard%. He’s likely to be a low owned, high cost alternative to Encarnacion or Goldschmidt against a pitcher who has allowed RHBs a .326 wOBA and 38.2 Hard% since last season.
Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Archie Bradley, Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf Arizona is projected for five runs, but has just two strong hitters vs RHP and Perdomo had a 61.8 GB% in June
Arizona is currently a bit above Toronto for tonight’s top run projection (5.17) and that’s certainly one way to go. Batters from both sides have a wOBA above .400 against Luis Perdomo and LHBs have a 36.7 Hard%. Jake Lamb (165 wRC+, .336 ISO vs RHP this season) and Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are probably two of the top four bats along with two Blue Jays who play the same position tonight. Beyond that though, there may be some low cost value from Phil Gosselin (106 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Brandon Drury (105 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP this season). Both cost the minimum on FanDuel, but Jean Segura (113 wRC+) is the only other batters above average vs RHP this season and costs quiet a bit for that limited production tonight. Another way to go might be considering that Luis Perdomo had a 14.3 K-BB% and 61.8 GB% in 27 June innings with road games in Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Colorado. He’s not going to sustain a 35.3 HR/FB and has some upside (especially for just $4.3K on DK) against an offense with a 16.7 K-BB% vs RHP. It’s really the park that is much more concerning than the offense once you get past the two top hitters.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Luis Perdomo, Phil Gosselin, Brandon Drury, Jean Segura Cleveland has the top home offense in majors (123 wRC+), but several expensive and marginal bats vs LHP
This is one of the more marginal spots on tonight’s small board. Daniel Norris has struck out 13 of 45 in two starts, but has also allowed three HRs (all to Seattle) and hasn’t really asserted himself at the major league level yet with a 10.9 K-BB% in 77.2 career innings. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (0.85 GB/FB), who hasn’t been hit too hard (27.9%), but faces the top home offense in baseball (123 wRC+). Cleveland has been a hot team overall, though that’s more pitching than bats and those bats don’t come cheaply tonight. In fact, Rajai Davis (106 wRC+, .163 ISO vs LHP this season) is tonight’s top priced OF bat on DK ($5.2K). It’s not even as much about affordability with a lack of high priced arms on the slate, but more about Cleveland not even really having any strong bats against LHP. Francisco Lindor (110 wRC+, .127 ISO vs LHP this season) has just a 20 wRC+ and 16.7 Hard% over the last week, but remains in play at a weak position. No Cleveland batter has an ISO above .200 vs LHP this season, but Yan Gomes (123 wRC+, .197 ISO) comes closest and could serve as an affordable catching option if needed ($2.8K on either site).
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Yan Gomes, Daniel Norris Royals have struggled the past week, 83 wRC+, .299 wOBA, .115 ISO
Sanchez (3.62 SIERA, 22.0%K%) has the third highest ground ball rate in the majors (58.6%) and is limiting hard contact extremely well (22.2%). The primary concern with Sanchez is the unpredictability of his SwStr% from start-to-start (5.0% or below in 2 of last 3 starts). One of those starts came at Coors Field so we can give Sanchez a pass for that particular outing. Sanchez is in a decent spot against a low-powered Royals offense (9.4 HR/FB vs RHP) that also doesn’t take a ton of walks (6.0% vs RHP). Despite the ballpark upgrade this is not a spot to heavily target the Royals, but if in need of some salary savings, Eric Hosmer (132 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .163 ISO vs RHP) and Salvador Perez (119 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .223 ISO vs RHP) are both relatively inexpensive compared to their talent level and bat in the heart of the Royals order.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez Volquez bounces back from horrific start last time out, but Toronto has top run projection (5.2)
Toronto has the top run projection tonight of 5.2 runs and there is little standing in the way of their ownership with little high priced pitching. Perhaps Goldschmidt and Lamb will counter some of the Donaldson/Encarnacion attraction with the four of them being potentially tonight’s overall top bats. Players are going to have to choose or just make multiple lineups. Regardless, both big Toronto bats have a wRC+ above 140 with an ISO above .260 against RHP since last season. Both also have a wRC+ just above 230 over the last week. Volquez bounced back from a 12 run inning with 6.2 shutout innings in St Louis that nobody saw coming, but is still a very marginal pitcher at best and even worse in a hitter’s park like Toronto. While he doesn’t have much of platoon split, LHBs have hit him harder (31.1 Hard% to 26.5%) since last season. Michael Saunders (136 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP this season) is a top OF option and costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Russell Martin (137 wRC+ last seven days) and Troy Tolutwitzki (163 wRC+ last seven days) are strong plays at weak positions as well.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Saunders, Edinson Volquez