DFS Alerts

Colon has been good, but allows a lot of hard contact (33.3 Hard%)

We know what Bartolo Colon is after nearly 20 years in the league (although maybe he’s a power hitter now too) and that’s more than we can say for most of today’s other pitchers. The strikeout rate (21.4%) has been a bit high and declining over the last month until he eventually probably settles into the 17-19% range. He’s been an average pitcher the last couple of years who doesn’t walk anybody, but occasionally gets hit hard (33.3 Hard% in 2016). The Dodgers have struggled (70 wRC+ at home, 83 wRC+ vs RHP) and for this reason, he has to be considered in a secondary capacity on two pitcher sites, but he’s the type of pitcher you fit in at the end rather than build around (no, that wasn’t an intentional joke about Bartolo fitting somewhere). The Dodgers do have several players capable of hitting for power in this lineup tonight and should be considered if not using Colon. Seager, Turner, Gonzalez, Grandal, and Pederson (two through six) all have at least a 113 wRC+ and .183 ISO vs RHP against RHP since last season with Grandal the low man in both marks, but also at the toughest position. Utley has not been as strong, but needs remains an option due to batting in the leadoff spot ahead of all of those guys.

Adam Wainwright owns a career high 32.1 Hard% this year

Wainwright has had 7 starts already this year, and he’s allowed 3 or more ER in every single one of them. Wainwright hasn’t pitched well this year, owning a career low 13.1K% and a SIERA of 4.90. He’ll be facing an Angels team that only strikes out 15.9% of the time against RHP, which is good for the second lowest in the league. It wouldn’t be wise to consider Wainwright in any format tonight. Even though Wainwright serves as an attackable pitcher, the Angels lineup doesn’t feature many players that have the ability to take advantage of their matchup tonight. As always, Mike Trout (.417 wOBA – 179 wRC+ – .282 ISO vs RHP in 2016) should be in consideration for one of your OF spots tonight. Besides Trout, you could possibly look to Albert Pujols (.401 wOBA – 152 wRC+ career vs RHP), but owns a dismal 64 wRC+ during this month of May.

Kevin’s late update is up and it brings some concern with not the best pitcher, but probably the best pitching matchup on the board where there looks to be a real chance of at least a delay in the Phillies @ Braves contest. Read Kevin’s full report at our Weather Page linked below to assess the risk on this game.

Cueto has struck out seven or more four times, four or fewer in his other three starts

Johnny Cueto has been good overall in his new uniform, but it’s been more of a bumpy up and down ride than smooth sailing as he’s allowed six runs twice and struck out four or fewer three times, but seven or more in his four other starts and one run or less four times also. Arizona is a tough spot to pitch though. It might be the worst run environment (for pitchers) outside of Colorado. Cueto pitched most of his career in a tough park (though Cincinnati boosts power more than overall runs), but a $10K price is asking a lot from a pitcher who doesn’t draw a ton of his value from an elite strikeout rate. With a lot of uncertainty surrounding everyone not named Kershaw, he’s probably close to if not as good as anybody else today and merits consideration. With Goldschmidt (154 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at $4.5K on either site and David Peralta still out there’s little interest in Arizona bats against a tough pitcher, aside from possibly a still very cheap Brandon Drury (103 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP) batting 2nd.

Eovaldi owns a career high 23.7K%, but also is allowing a career high 35.5 Hard%

Through 37.2 IP this season, Eovaldi owns a strikeout percentage of 23.7%, which is well above his career average of just 17.1%. It’s not all good on the home front, though. Eovaldi has allowed a career high 35.5% hard hit rate and a HR/FB rate of an alarming 19.4%. This should bode well for the Royals tonight, who will attempt to stay hot again tonight (14 runs scored in their past two games). Lorenzo Cain (.309 wOBA vs RHP), Alex Gordon (.338 wOBA vs RHP) and Eric Hosmer (.411 wOBA vs RHP) make for interesting GPP plays this evening. As a team, the Royals own a projected run total of just 3.5, making them best suited as GPP options if you decide to roster them.

Astros alter lineup and go almost entirely RHBs against erratic Price

David Price has combined a 14.1 SwStr% with a 41.2 Hard% that is just mind boggling. He’s had at least a 13 SwStr% in all except one start despite a sizable drop in velocity. It’s difficult to figure out what to make of this, especially as he faces a team with power, but a 23.6 K% vs LHP. He could strike out 15, allow eight runs, or maybe both. He’s going to be a difficult pay up for $11.1K on DraftKings, but the strikeout upside on a volatile night might make you consider his GPP value for $9.4K on FanDuel where the win matters more and the top offense in baseball right now behind him. Luis Valbuena is the only lefty in the lineup, though Price has exhibited no platoon split since the start of last season (RHBs have hit him much better this season). Four bats appear to be in play here. Two are expensive enough to consider them of likely average value. Those are Altuve (180 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) for over $5K and Correa – 136 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP since 2015). George Springer (170 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP) smashes LHP and is in the $4K range. Lastly, look to Marwin Gonzalez (138 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for some infield value for less than $3K. He has a 213 wRC+ over the last week.

Brett Wallace has a 153 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since last season

The Padres are finally starting to insert him into the middle of the order more often vs RHP, but Brett Wallace (153 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP) has been a find for them and a great value tonight for $3K or less, facing a HR prone pitcher with control problems and .363 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season. Nelson’s 19.9 K% hides a 6.3 SwStr% that is three points below his career 9.3 SwStr%. Nelson is difficult to justify at $9.2K on DraftKings no matter how good the matchup, but he has held RHBs to a .266 wOBA since last season and the Padres (71 wRC+, 26.0 K%) stack up seven of them tonight and $7.6K on FanDuel looks like something he might more be able to surpass.

Gennett returns to Milwaukee lineup, Villar bumped to 9th

Jonathan Villar supporters will be disappointed with Gennett’s return as he’s taken out of play batting 9th. Alex Presley, who has been getting some playing time also sits against a pitcher who has allowed a .359 wOBA to LHBs since last season. Shields also has the highest walk rate of his career (10.9%), while the Brewers surprisingly have the 2nd best walk rate in the majors (10.8%). While they strike out 25.5% of the time against RHP, this might not be the park you want to start a HR prone pitcher in at this point in Shield’s career (14.9 HR/FB on the road since last season). He has allowed 15 HRs to RHBs too since last season, so Milwaukee’s RH power plays here. The one unexpected name to consider tonight might be and affordable middle infield option, Aaron Hill. He has just a 79 wRC+ vs RHP since last year, but a 234 wRC+, 52.2 Hard% over the last week and three career HRs off of Shields, including a 94.8 mph aEV on three batted balls in this matchup within the last year. While Braun (128 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Carter (112 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are the top power bats in this matchup and still hold some value, they do cost above $4K except for Carter on FanDuel ($3.2K).

Teixeira returns to lineup against extreme fly ball pitcher Kennedy

Ian Kennedy has excelled in Kansas City in a park and defense that was built for him and his 0.78 GB/FB this year. His 23.2 K% has assisted him to a 2.13 ERA, but there’s also an 88.2 LOB% and 6.7 HR/FB lying behind that. These are numbers that are nearly impossible to sustain in most parks, but Yankee Stadium is the last place you want to pitch someone with just a high fly ball rate. Add the fact that Mark Teixeira (138 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP since 2015) returns to bat cleanup tonight and $8K seems like too much of a risk to take. Yankee middle of the order bats for $3.5K or under are good targets in this one. Besides Teixeira, they include Carlos Beltran (125 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Brian McCann (110 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who may be tonight’s top catching option.

Jimenez has allowed a .329 wOBA, but just a 24.9 Hard% to RHBs since last season

Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the most wildly inconsistent pitchers in baseball. He has allowed a .329 wOBA, but just a 24.9 Hard% to RHBs since last season because a lot of his damage is self-inflicted with walks, while he generally keeps the ball on the ground (55.3 GB%), making him difficult to target with RHBs and Miguel Cabrera’s cost skyrocketing to over $5K on DK tonight. The Tigers struck out 20 times last night and have been struggling, so perhaps there’s a bit of a hangover, making Jimenez a secondary pitcher to target near the bottom of the board on what is suspected to be a highly volatile pitching night anyway.

Aaron Blair has a -6.2 K-BB% in three major league starts

Aaron Blair has just a 3.31 ERA through three major league starts, but has walked (nine) nearly twice as many as he’s struck out (five), which, unfortunately, wipes him off the board in one of the better matchups tonight. The Phillies have just a 69 wRC+ vs RHP, so there aren’t going to be too many bats we’re interested in in a negative run environment, but Andres Blanco’s (128 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since 2015) insertion into the two spot at $2.5K or less makes things interesting. Although Maikel Franco (113 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) and Herrera (118 wRC+ vs RHP) cost more on Fanduel, Ryan Howard (107 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is near the bare minimum there, while all three are affordably in the $3.5K range on DraftKings. A Phillies top four stack should be low owned and could help you to afford Kershaw.

Red Sox have been scorching (177 wRC+ last week), but Keuchel just $6.9K on DK

The Red Sox have faced a LHP several days in a row now and while tonight it’s the reigning AL Cy Young winner, he’s had his issues this season, though is coming off his best start of the season (7 IP – 2 ER – 8 K). It might take more than one start to re-establish the trust factor with a double digit walk rate and ERA still well above four. In addition, he faces the hottest offense on the planet (177 wRC+, 25.4 HR/FB last seven days). It’s going to be tough to pay up for him in this spot on FanDuel, but for just $6.9K on DraftKings some exposure in your 2nd pitcher slot might be necessary if using Kershaw. Despite allowing only his fourth and fifth HRs since the start of last season to lefties in his last start, he’s still a difficult pitcher to elevate (56.5 GB%) limiting our desire to attack him at high costs, though Chris Young (169 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has been smoking the ball (263 wRC+ last seven days) and remains a great value for under $3.5K. If you’re really looking outside the box, Jackie Bradley Jr. is a LHB who bats last, but now has a 178 wRC+ at home and 158 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP since last season with a scorching 352 wRC+ and 57.9 Hard% over the last week. He’ll likely get at least one AB against a RHP later in the game as the pen saves it’s LOOGY for Ortiz.

Orioles have a 131 wRC+ vs RHP, 150 wRC+ over the last week

This is going to be the most popular lineup of the night as the Orioles are one of the two top offenses in a great park, facing on of the worst pitchers on the board. Chris Davis (163 wRC+, 348 ISO, 44.8 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) is probably the top overall bat tonight (209 wRC+ last seven days) against Pelfrey’s .384 wOBA allowed to LHBs since last season. Manny Machado (157 wRC+, .260 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be even hotter (243 wRC+ last seven days) should be a close 2nd (Pelfrey .321 wOBA vs RHB since 2015). Baltimore is the top projected offense tonight (5.39 runs) by nearly a run with the bats likely being very popular, but good values even at high prices all the way through.

Velasquez has just 19 Ks last four starts, but best matchup tonight

Vincent Velasquez has struck out just 19 batters over four starts since striking out 25 in his first two, but has been generating a lot of weak contact in the air (seven IFFBs out of 37 fly balls), which makes him, and just about everybody, a strong fit against a Braves offense with no power (4.7 HR/FB at home, 4.1 HR/FB vs RHP) and a 67 wRC+ vs RHP. The price tag might be a bit high on DraftKings ($10.9K) for a pitcher who’s performance has been lacking in recent starts, but nearly everyone has major flaws tonight and he may be the top pivot off Kershaw on FanDuel ($9.1K). If not in on him, the Braves bats are so cheap that you nearly have to look at Kelly Johnson (102 wRC+ vs RHP since last year, 201 wRC+ last seven days) in the cleanup spot for less than $2.5K, while Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2015)is a little more expensive, but has been on fire (263 wRC+, 40.0 Hard% last seven days). The Braves do have the 2nd lowest run projection tonight though (3.3), so you don’t want to go too nuts.

Shoemaker 17.6 HR/FB at home, .352 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015

With the extra bat in the AL park, the Cardinals only have one man left out of their OF/1B puzzle and tonight that’s Hazelbaker. Matt Shoemaker may have some room to improve a 15.5 K% with his 9.6 SwStr%, but HRs have plagued him in the minors and do so again with a 23.1 HR/FB this year and 17.6 HR/FB at home since last season. Playing further against him is a .352 wOBA to RHBs since 2015 and the Cardinals have some strong RH bats against RHP, although Matt Carpenter (152 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since last season) still reigns supreme at the top of the order. The entire lineup is in play (except for maybe Wong), right down to Aledmys Diaz as the SS hitting 9th due to his 206 wRC+, .319 ISO vs RHP so far at a tough position.