DFS Alerts

Kenta Maeda owns 23.8K% and low 23.8 Hard% this season

Kenta Maeda has pitched very well this season, owning a 23.8K% and Hard Hit rate of just 23.8%. Tonight he will face the Mets at home who own a low projected run total of just 3.28. The Mets have hit RHP well this season (106 wRC+ – .331 wOBA) but aren’t overly appealing against Maeda tonight. It would be best to consider other options rather than targeting Mets bats this evening. Note that David Wright is not in the starting lineup tonight. Maeda is a bit expensive ($10K on DK) which lowers his overall appeal, but he still should be considered a serviceable SP option.

Late Slate Notable Inactives: Votto, Jaso, J. Harrison, Castellanos, Realmuto, Zobrist, Teixeira, A. Russell

Joey Votto, John Jaso and Josh Harrison are missing from what should be a heavily targeted PIT/CIN contest, while Nick Castellanos will sit with Miguel Cabrera shifting over to 3B and Victor Martinez starting at 1B in an NL park. Ben Zobrist and Addison Russell will sit on the back-end of the Cubs double-header, while Mark Teixeira will get another night to rest his ailing neck.

Justin Turner NOT in lineup Wednesday, Syndergaard owns 32.2K%

Noah Syndergaard has pitched great this year, owning a 32.2K% to go along with a SIERA of only 2.37. Tonight he will square off against the Dodgers who rank as the seventh worst team in the league against RHP. As a team, the Dodgers own an 83 wRC+, .297 wOBA and 21.9K% when facing righties. Noah Syndergaard should be considered one of the top SP options tonight in all formats, just as he normally is on each slate he pitches. Note that Justin Turner is out of the lineup tonight, and Howie Kendrick will take his place and bat third. Kendrick owns a -7 wRC+ and a .159 wOBA against RHP this season, so it would be in your best interest to look elsewhere for value.

After a rough couple of nights, it’s not all clear tonight, but there’s little to be concerned about in Kevin’s late weather forecast tonight, which you can read in it’s entirely on our Weather Page (linked below). The second game of the Padres/Cubs double-header is the one spot to watch, but Kevin doesn’t foresee anything problematic at the moment.

Jaime Garcia owns a 26.1K%, faces Angels who own league low 11.9K% against LHP

Jaime Garcia has owned a 26.1K%, 3.23 SIERA and low 20.4 Hard% so far this season. Tonight he will square off against the light hitting Angels in Anaheim. The only problem with targeting the Angels is that they don’t strikeout much against LHP. They rank first in the league with a K% of only 11.9% against LHP. So while Garcia is probably a good bet to get the win, his strikeout upside is limited tonight. Consider Garcia as a serviceable SP2 this evening.

Zobrist & Russell sit OUT 2nd game of doubleheader

Drew Pomeranz is an improved pitcher this season, though his SwStr has been just 7.1% over his last two start and he has an 11.7 BB% that runs close to the Cubs 14.0 BB% against LHP. This is a patient lineup that could cause problems in a tough park. It’s especially difficult to pay up for him at $9.4K on DraftKings. There’s not a lot of interest in high cost Cubs bats against him (.211 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015), but if you’re looking for some salary relief in the middle infield, Javier Baez (194 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) costs less than $3K. Dexter Fowler is an expensive bat, but has a 146 wRC+ vs LHP since last season out of the leadoff spot.

Bryce Harper will be eligible to play tonight despite his recent suspension (appeal)

Harper will still play tonight, and will continue to be eligible for each game until his appeal is heard.

Padres load up RH bats, Lackey has a .277 wOBA vs RHBs since last year

John Lackey has been pitching better than expected this season if you look at his 18.9 K-BB% and 12.6 SwStr%, but not by his 4.02 ERA due to a 66% strand rate. The Padres stack up right-handed bats against him in Game Two of the doubleheader, which should benefit Lackey with a .277 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season. This removes the interest in any Padres bats with a 72 wRC+ vs RHP anyway. The issue then becomes one of cost, which is fine on FanDuel for $9.2K, but I can’t imagine daily fantasy players envisioning a scenario where they’d be comfortably playing John Lackey for $11.1K on DraftKings this year. He should do well, but it’s difficult to call him a great value at that price.

Royals LHB’s should be in GPP consideration tonight against Pineda in Yankee Stadium

Michael Pineda owns an above average strikeout rate of 22.7%, but has allowed a 20.5 HR/FB% so far through the 2016 season. Given the short porch out in right field, the Royals lefties must be licking their chops. Eric Hosmer isn’t a major power threat, but does have 3 HR’s and an .185 ISO against RHP while playing away from Kauffman Stadium this year. Kendrys Morales has struggled against RHP this year, but he owns a career .204 ISO and .347 wOBA against RHP. Also to be considered in GPP’s is Lorenzo Cain, who hit 3 HR’s last night and will look to continue his streak this evening.

Rick Porcello owns a 26.3K% and a 3.12 SIERA through 39.1 IP this season

Porcello has pitched well this season, owning a 26.3K%, 3.12 SIERA and 3.28 xFIP. While we should expect regression as the season continues, given his current 7.8 SwStri%, tonight he finds himself in a matchup to exploit against the Athletics. As a -185 favorite, he is in good position to get the win. The Athletics rank in the bottom third of teams in the league against RHP, but own a low 18.6K% against them, making Porcello slightly less appealing. Consider Porcello a GPP pitcher this evening. If your looking to roster to A’s tonight, Josh Reddick (.408 wOBA – 171 wRC+) has performed well against RHP this season and makes for a solid play. Cocoa Crisp may be worth a flyer, as he is batting leadoff tonight and is priced under $3K on FanDuel.

Ventura has a 17.6 K% and BB%, Teixeira remains OUT

Yordano Ventura may have already walked the bases loaded on the way to the ballpark tonight. He has walked 11 of his last 44 batters and could make things really interesting with the Royals having gone to the bullpen very early last night. He has walked and struck out 17.6% this year. Walk fests aren’t usually what we look for in daily fantasy batters, but a guy like Gardner (109 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, 148 wRC+ last seven days) at the top of the lineup is line to score some runs tonight, while McCann (131 wRC+ at home, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Beltran (122 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP since 2015) stand to bat with some men on base tonight out of the 3rd and 4th spots. Dustin Ackley doesn’t have the numbers (90 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP), but can provide middle infield salary relief with similar opportunities batting 5th.

Affordable Phillies hitters upgraded against Perez

Williams Perez (starting after Jhoulys Chacin) has a 3.5 K-BB% with an ERA and estimators just below five in 129 major league innings with a .379 wOBA allowed to LHBs. This gives some value to those cheap Phillies bats at the top of the order, namely Odubel Herrera (119 wRC+ vs RHP) and Ryan Howard (.239 ISO vs RHP since 2015), each below $4K on DraftKings with Howard being MUCH cheaper on FanDuel ($2.2K). Cesar Hernandez is not a strong hitter (82 wRC+ vs RHP), but can be looked at for under $3K against a weak pitcher at the top of the order, while Perez hasn’t had great success against RHBs either (.325 wOBA), keeping Maikel Franco (115 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP) in play for under $3.5K.

Murphy moved to cleanup against ex-Nat Zimmermann

Ryan Zimmerman homered twice last night. That was finally enough for Dusty Baker to move him out of the cleanup spot and the red-hot Daniel Murphy (229 wRC+ last seven days) into it. Murphy does have 3 HRs in 62 career plate appearances against tonight’s pitcher with a 98.5 mph aEV over 10 batted balls last year. Jordan Zimmermann has a .268 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season, so we probably didn’t want any of these RH Nats anyway with none even an average hitter vs RHP. Zimmermann may have some extra incentive against his old team, but there are issues with a high cost here too, namely an 89.6 LOB% and equally unsustainable 3.8 HR/FB (8.9 career) with the lowest K% (15.2) and SwStr% (7.0) of his career. Even if it’s working to prevent runs now, it’s not a profile you want to bet on holding up. Bryce Harper (197 wRC+, .350 ISO vs RHP since last season) remains in play for under $5K tonight.

Chen's (13.5 HR/FB) velocity still down, did not strike out a batter in his last start

Wei-Yin Chen backfired in his last start, allowing four runs and not striking a single Phillie. His velocity and K% continue to lag as he has failed to strike out more than four in four of six starts with very mediocre overall results. The move to a big NL East park was supposed to help him, but it hasn’t been so as he still has a 13.5 HR/FB. Domingo Santana returns to the leadoff spot (for now – he’s been a late scratch a couple of times over the last week) and he might be the the top value in this lineup tonight (164 RC+, .256 ISO vs LHP since 2015). Ryan Braun (165 wRC+, .256 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is probably still the most dangerous, but comes at a much higher price. Braun is one of three RH bats in this lineup with a 168 wRC+ or better over the last week. The others bat low in the order, but are non-first base infield options for under $2.5K: Aaron Hill (254 wRC+) and Hernan Perez (170 wRC+). Each of the pair additionally has a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. Chris Carter is still a threat, but has been just average vs LHP (105 wRC+) and has cooled down a bit (49 wRC+ last seven days).

Castellanos sits in NL park against Scherzer

The 3B experiment with Miggy Cabrera is back on for one night as Nick Castellanos takes a seat in the NL park tonight. After homering each of the last two nights, maybe that’s a break for Max Scherzer (19.1 HR/FB this season). If we expect Scherzer to regress to career numbers (not 2015), he should be fine with his strikeouts (25.6%) and SwStr (12.6%) along with his batted ball and contact profiles are in line with previous rates. The cost is still high, but has come down from last season to reflect his recent HR issues. He’s even below $10K now on FanDuel. He always has great upside and if the HR rate might even scare some players off, but this is still one of the top pitchers on the slate tonight. The high HR rate doesn’t exclude perhaps taking a shot with Miguel Cabrera though (159 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP) at a rare cost below $4K tonight. The ball is still coming off his bat at an average 93.1 mph this year. Scherzer has held RHBs to a .228 wOBA since last year though and Detroit does have one of the lowest run projections on the board tonight (3.15).