DFS Alerts

Jerad Eickhoff gets tonight's top matchup in Atlanta (65 wRC+ vs RHP)

The flow chart reads “Who’s facing the Braves”. That’s the entire flowchart as it has become a near must to roster the arm opposing lowly Atlanta (60 wRC+, 4.1 HR/FB at home, 65 wRC+, 3.6 HR/FB vs RHP). Jerad Eickhoff has a league averagish 22.5 K%, 9.6 SwStr% with a bit too much hard contact (33.0 Hard%) this season, but he’s faced some powerful offenses, including St Louis and the Mets (twice). He should have an easier time here and a great secondary choice behind onen of tonight’s studs. His $6.9K price tag on FanDuel makes him a borderline steal, which allows you to load up on top offenses. The Braves bats aren’t necessarily off limits if you’re paying up for pitching and looking for salary relief. Freddie Freeman (144 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is more expensive, but has gotten his stroke back recently (196 wRC+ last seven days), while Kelly Johnson (99 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) has been an average hitter in the cleanup spot for under $3K (as is Pierzynski behind him). Eickhoff has allowed a .363 wOBA to LHBs in his career.

Red Sox have top run projection tonight (5.23), Young top value play

The Red Sox went on a rampage against a top prospect lefty last night and now they face a much lesser on in Eric Surkamp (9.2 K%, 5.59 ERA, 6.39 SIERA), who has a 13.6 HR/FB over the last two calendar years. Stack up your costly Red Sox. All are in play here, even Ortiz against a lefty (90 wRC+, .198 wRC+ vs LHP since last season, 264 wRC+, 58.3 Hard% over the last week). Your salary relief and must have bat tonight will be Chris Young (163 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP since 2015), who has become the moderately priced lefty masher in the middle of the lineup. He is tonight’s top value play for the top projected lineup (5.23 runs).

Williams Perez to start in place of Chacin (traded) for Braves tonight

Analysis coming soon.

Chase Anderson has a 21.6 HR/FB, 39.1 Hard% this season

Marlins stacks haven’t worked out incredibly well this week, but they face another weak offering from the Brewers in Chase Anderson (16.4 K%, 6.44 ERA, 6.27 FIP). He’s allowed a 21.6 HR/FB and 39.1 Hard% this year as well with a wOBA above .325 to batters from each side of the plate. We’re going to stick with the heart of this Miami lineup again tonight. Christian Yelich (133 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) may be a bit expensive for his lack of power (.152 ISO vs RHP), but should be right in the middle of the an potential offensive outburst tonight. Dietrich, Stanton, and Bour all have a wRC+ between 125 to 140 and ISO above .230 vs RHP since last season. While Stanton comes at a premium, which he’s often worth against these types of pitchers, Dietrich and Bour can be had for just over $3K. The three through five hitters (Yelich, Stanton, Bour) all have an average exit velocity above 93 mph this season. The Marlins have the 2nd highest projected run line (4.86) on tonight’s slate.

Votto OUT of the lineup vs Nicasio

It’s a peculiar choice of nights to rest Joey Votto against a pitcher with a .392 wOBA against LHBs since last season. The Cincinnati lineup now includes just three LHBs with one a weak hitting catcher batting eighth and another Billy Hamilton (45 wRC+ vs RHP since last season). This should be a combination he can run on should he find himself on first base though. Jay Bruce (98 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the bat to look at here for $3.4K on either site. Votto’s absence suddenly puts Nicasio in play with a .270 wOBA against RHBs since 2015, which includes striking out about a quarter of the batters from that side of the plate. His cost still runs a bit high on FanDuel ($7.9K), but it’s just $6K on DraftKings. One other name to mention is the right-handed Adam Duvall, who has a 131 wRC+ vs RHP, 223 wRC+ over the last week, and four batted balls with an average exit velocity of 96.4 mph against Nicasio per Baseball Savant.

TOR-SF game has lowest run total of early slate

Marcus Stroman of Toronto takes on Madison Bumgarner and the Giants today in a game that has a relatively low run total of seven with the Giants being slight favorites. Stroman is an excellent pitcher but doesn’t have the strikeout upside we look for and faces a tough Giants lineup. Bumgarner has to face a difficult Blue Jays lineup (highest wOBA/ISO against LHP the last two seasons) and an expensive price tag, but he does have the upside we want in our SP. He’s a GPP option but a risky one. We always have to consider Josh Donaldson when he faces a lefty, even an elite one like Bumgarner, as he mashes them beyond belief (.354 ISO). Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are secondary options. Stroman has held hitters from both sides of the plate to under a .266 wOBA and as such it’s hard to like anyone from the Giants line up today outside of Brandon Belt who has been swinging a hot bat in the past couple weeks.

Alfredo Simon = Pirates stack!

Alfredo Simon is one of the worst SP’s in baseball which means you always want to target opposing bats whenever he takes the mound. Tonight that would be the Pirates, especially their lone LH bat, Gregory Polanco as Simon has a .384 wOBA allowed to lefties. He’s not much better against RH bats (.333 wOBA) so David Freese (leading off for John Jaso who gets the night off), Andrew McCutchen (batting second), and Starling Marte (batting clean up) are excellent targets as well. Juan Nicasio is an intriguing GPP SP option facing the Reds (25th against RHP the last two seasons) but it is a hitters park so there is some risk involved. Nicasio is extremely vulnerable to LH bats (.392 wOBA allowed the past two seasons) so Billy Hamilton (batting second) and Jay Bruce (batting clean up) are secondary options from the Reds. Joey Votto, who would have been an elite option, will not play.

Braves finalizing a trade to move Jhoulys Chacin to the Angels; no word on who would start in his place tonight

It appears that the deal will be done today, and even if it’s not complete by the time of first pitch, Chacin likely won’t take the mound unless the trade completely falls apart. It’s looking like Williams Perez (RH) will be tasked with facing the Phillies tonight, but nothing is official at this point. We’ll continue to update.

Pitching should rule the day in TB-SEA game

With Chris Archer and Taijuan Walker on the mound it’s not a surprise that this game is tied with the TOR-SF game for the lowest total of the early slate. Archer has turned the corner of late with 20K’s, 2 ER’s allowed in his last 18 IP. Walker in the meantime is no slouch having posted a 3.05 SIERA and 22.1% K rate this season – and he gets the added benefit of facing the Rays who are one of the worst hitting teams in the league against RHP. Corey Dickerson is the main bat from the Rays worth mentioning as he does hit RHP well (.386 wOBA, .297 ISO). You can also look at Brad Miller batting second as he’s been hot of late and is at a good price point. Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager hit RHP well and have been hitting well recently but are nothing more than secondary GPP options given the match up with Archer.

Coors game? You know the drill...

Don’t let one low scoring output from yesterday scare you off – over the long run it’s proven that any time there is a game at Coors Field with non-elite pitchers taking the mound it’s a game you want to target. Robbie Ray and Chad Bettis are certainly not elite thus this is a game you want to target. Bettis has allowed a .316 wOBA to LH bats and a .335 wOBA to RH bats over the past two seasons and the Diamondbacks have the second highest run total of the day (behind only Colorado). Any of the top six of their lineup are excellent options with Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb the top targets in the middle of the order. Brandon Drury has been swinging a hot bat of late, bats second, and comes in at a relatively affordable price tag making him an excellent option as either a stand alone or as part of a game stack. From the Rockies side of the plate, look to focus in on their RH bats as Ray has allowed a .338 wOBA to that side of the plate. Carlos Gonzalez gets the day off against the southpaw and lefty masher Ryan Raburn makes for a great play at his price point batting fifth. Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Mark Reynolds are the other righty bats to target.

Danny Salazar a high-risk, high-reward SP option today

Indians SP Danny Salazar has been impressive thus far this season with a 3.44 SIERA, 29.9 K%, and 12.9 SS%. He has a boom or bust match up against a tough Astros (first in ISO against RHP the last two seasons) team. While he’s probably not cash game worthy given the match up, he’s an excellent GPP option given the strikeout upside. The SP for the Astros, Doug Fister, just hasn’t been that good the last two seasons allowing a .330+ wOBA to both sides of the plate. The Indians have a mediocre at best offense but this one of the few times where you can look to target them. Any of the top five batters (Rajai Davis, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, and Carlos Santana) are options today with Kipnis (.384 wOBA vs RHP) the best of that group. We can never ignore the Astros completely but given the tough match up and high price tags, their nothing more than secondary options. If you do want to look their way then Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa (as usual) are where to look.

Cubs large favorites in opener of double header against Padres

The Cubs come in as a -230 favorite today and with the Padres only projected to score 2.88 runs, Kyle Hendricks is an excellent SP option today, especially given the Padres woes at the plate. While he is prone to getting pulled for a pinch-hitter, his price tag is very affordable and the likelihood of the win makes him even more valuable on sites like FanDuel. No one in the Padres lineup stands out as a viable play, especially considering Hendricks ability to keep the ball down. The Padres SP Colin Rea has been very hittable in his time in the majors and gets to face off against a potent Cubs lineup. Any of the top four (Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo) in their lineup are excellent options today, even with a Coors game on tap. Zobrist leads off for Fowler who will get the game off.

Rangers get favorable match up against Latos today

The Rangers face Matt Latos today, who has struggled this season, and accordingly have one of the higher run totals of the day at just under 5 runs (4.83 to be precise). Latos has allowed a .334 wOBA to LH bats over the past two seasons and the Rangers have four lefties (Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland) batting in the top six of the order that are all worth a look, with the hot-hitting Odor being the top target of that group. Cole Hamels starts for the Rangers and is a consideration in both cash and tournaments today as he has a compelling match up with a White Sox team that is 29th in wOBA and ISO against LHP the last two seasons. Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier are potential GPP plays for the White Sox but their relatively high prices make them secondary options.

Plenty of offense expected in Minnesota today

With Tyler Wilson and Phil Hughes on the mound today in Minnesota, Vegas expects some runs to be scored as they have given it a high over/under of nine runs with the game considered a near coin flip. Both pitchers are easy fades. Hughes has given up 33 HR’s in his last 31 starts making Manny Machado (.397 wOBA vs RHP) and Chris Davis (.405 wOBA vs RHP) top targets from the Orioles lineup. The rest of the top seven of the lineup are also in play with Jonathan Schoop being especially intriguing (.361 wOBA, .250 ISO vs RHP) at his price tag. The Orioles SP, Tyler Wilson, has allowed a .329 wOBA to RH bats over the last two seasons making the Twins a stackable team in today’s early slate. Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, and Miguel Sano are the three to focus on but Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, and Byung Ho Park are all hitting in the top six of the lineup and are worth consideration as well (especially if stacking).

Analysis coming soon.