DFS Alerts

Additional updates should be provided within the next hour or so.

J.A. Happ's 2016 15.6 K% is down 4% from his career average of 19.6%

While J.A. Happ is undefeated thus far (4-0), his K% has sharply declined to 15.6%, down from his career 19.6% mark. He owns an elevated 4.49 SIERA and an xFIP of 4.44. Tonight he faces the Giants who are one of the best teams against LHP this season. Collectively, they own a 113 wRC+, .340 wOBA, and low 17.9K% against them in 2016. On the Giants side of things, Buster Posey (.429 wOBA – 172 wRC+) is a lefty masher and should be one of the top plays at the catcher position. But besides Posey, there isn’t a whole lot to like with the SFG lineup tonight. Joe Panik could be considered tonight (.371 wOBA – 135 wRC+ vs LHP in 2016) but it 2 for his last 23.

Cain has a 14.5 K% and ERA over seven

Matt Cain has been awful with a 14.5 K% and an ERA above seven with estimators just two runs lower. He has allowed a .378 wOBA to RHBs since last season, leaving the big three from Toronto in play tonight, even in one of the toughest run environments in baseball. Each of Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion have a wRC+ in the 140s vs RHP since last season with an ISO between .250 and .300. Encarnacion (216 wRC+ over the last week) has been the only hot bat of the three though. They aren’t discounted enough to call any of them a terrific value tonight, but should still do their damage in a tough park against a struggling pitcher.

deGrom velocity still down, but 85.8 mph average exit velocity best on the board

Jacob deGrom’s velocity continues to be down two mph, though it hasn’t affected his ERA (1.99) or SwStr (12.5%) yet and his 85.8 average exit velocity is tops on tonight’s board. The Dodgers should be better than they are, but have just a 66 wRC+ at home and 82 wRC+ vs RHP. The issue then becomes price with deGrom a bit over $10K on both major sites. One approach might be to stack against him with Dodger bats that should be low owned and hope it all falls apart against above average LH bats, but that’s probably a one off GPP approach and shouldn’t be where your heavy exposure is. Corey Seager (131 wRC+ vs RHP, 151 wRC+ last seven days) might be the most interesting bat to look at batting second at a tough position for just over $3K on DraftKings.

Smyly owns 31.5K% and 2.73 SIERA through 39.2 IP this season

Through nearly 40 IP this season, Smyly owns an insane 31.5K% and a SIERA of just 2.73. He will look to build on his impressive current 2016 campaign tonight against the Mariners in Safeco. The Mariners aren’t a particularly good team against LHP, nor are they particularly bad against them. They own a 21.1K%, 104 wRC+, .313 wOBA, and .171 ISO against lefties this year. If your looking to save a little bit of salary by not rostering Lester, Smyly is your guy. Consider Smyly a top SP option in any format this evening.

Late Game Notable Inactives: Forsythe, D. Peralta, M. Reynolds, Yan Gomes, M. Brantley, Aoki

Plenty of big names are missing from lineups tonight, and the most notable of the late-game group is Rays (typical) leadoff hitter Logan Forsythe. Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes are both out of the Indians lineup, while David Peralta and Mark Reynolds will take a seat for the 2nd game of the ARZ/COL series. Check out our Starting Lineups page (linked below) for a full breakdown of confirmed lineups.

Be on the lookout for an update around 715 pm EST

If you are playing daily fantasy baseball tonight, it is imperative that you read Kevin’s late weather update tonight on our Weather Page (linked below) as several games carry some risk, including the one in Colorado. Pittsburgh Cincinnati looks to be the most at risk, but Chicago (AL) Texas seems dicey as well. Pitching looks like it may be less affected overall than offense, although the top pitcher on this slate (Jon Lester) may not be usable. Make sure you read this update and adjust your lineups accordingly.

Michael Brantley OUT, Devenski owns 23.2K% this season

Christopher Devenski has struck out 10 of 47 batters with a double digit SwStr% through two starts after moving from the bullpen to the rotation. He now has a 23.2 K% through 24.2 innings, while walking just five batters. Given his cheap price tag ($6.5K on DraftKings – $6.4K on FanDuel), Devenski makes for a very interesting SP play this evening. The Indians will now be sitting Michael Brantley, which only increases Devenski’s appeal tonight. Jason Kipnis (.350 wOBA – 128 wRC+ vs RHP in 2016) and Carlos Santana (.395 wOBA – .300 ISO – 161 wRC+ vs RHP in 2016) both make for solid targets if your looking to attack Devenski

Rockies, as expected, have top run projection tonight (5.3 runs)

It’s really just a question of which of the two teams in Colorado will have the top run projection and tonight the Rockies (5.3) just edge out the road team (5.2). Rubby de la Rosa has more efficiently used his 10.6 SwStr% to put away 24.8% of batters on strikes this season and upped his ground ball right to 53% as he’s been more efficient vs LHBs early on (.296 wOBA), but in a much larger sample has allowed a .392 wOBA with 21 HRs since last season, while holding RHBs to a .274 wOBA. This makes Carlos Gonzalez (145 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP since 2015) one of the top plays on the board with a price decrease below $5K accounting for his recent cold streak (43 wRC+ last seven days). Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story have hit same handed pitching well and are top overall projected performers at their positions, though it’s difficult to call them a great value at over $5K. Charlie Blackmon is always a strong option in the leadoff spot at home against a RHP, especially at a similar price to Gonzalez. Similar to Arizona, this lineup is stackable all the way through depending on how much you’re paying for pitching.

Padres own league high 26.6K% against LHP, face Lester tonight

Jon Lester will square off tonight against the Padres at home in Wrigley Field. He owns a 24.7K% and a 2.97 xFIP so far through the 2016 season. The Padres own a league high 26.6K% and are projected to score a league low 2.73 runs this evening. Lester and the Cubs are insane -262 favorites in this one and should have no problem beating the Padres. Consider Lester the top SP option in any format this evening.

Santiago has allowed a .345 wOBA to RHBs since last season, Piscotty 178 wRC+ vs LHP

Hector Santiago has turned into a pumpkin again over his last two starts with velocity decreasing to last year’s levels and four total strikeouts with the same number of walks as he’s allowed seven ERs over 11 innings and faces a quality offense tonight, though they’ve been better vs RHP. One bat to take a good look at is Stephen Piscotty though. He has a 178 wRC+, .241 ISO vs LHP since last season with a 215 wRC+ over the last week. He’s not cheap, but is reasonably priced around $4K or less out of the two slot. Most of the rest of the St Louis lineup is around average vs LHPs.

Joe Mauer batting leadoff, Brian Dozier back in the lineup tonight against Gausman

After getting rained out last night, it’s Kevin Gausman turn to square off against the Twins. He’s pitched pretty well this year (3.73 SIERA – 3.87 xFIP), but doesn’t offer much strikeout upside (20K%). The Twins have been a much better team at home over the past two seasons (.323 wOBA), which makes Gausman a slightly less appealing option tonight. Consider him a low end SP2 this evening. The Twins own a Vegas projected run total of just under 4, and their lineup features a few players to consider. Joe Mauer (.384 wOBA – 152 wRC+ vs RHP this year) is batting leadoff tonight while Miguel Sano is pushed down to the 5 spot. Byung-ho Park is also an excellent GPP option tonight, given his success against RHP this year (.389 wOBA – .329 ISO – 155 wRC+ vs RHP). Trevor Plouffe is another player to consider, as he owns a .333 ISO and .530 wOBA vs RHP at home this season through a small sample size of 19 AB’s.

Just one LHB in Arizona lineup (5.2 run projection) vs Rusin in Colorado

Chris Rusin hasn’t pitched poorly at all (3.23 SIERA, 21.1 K%) and may even be worth discussing in his next road start, but he’s at home tonight, facing an almost entirely RH lineup, although he’s allowed a .360 to .370 wOBA to batters from both side since last season. Paul Goldschmidt (179 wRC+, .245 ISO, 44,3 Hard% vs LHP since 2015) and Welington Castillo (142 wRC+, .304 ISO, 46.0 Hard% vs LHP) are probably the two top hitters on the board and it makes it especially enticing that one’s a Catcher. They’re both quite expensive as you’d expect, but are batters to build a lineup around tonight. Goldy has an average exit velocity of 103.4 against Rusin in three batted balls since last season. Brandon Drury remains in the two spot, but his price has risen leaving him as just a good value rather than a straight out steal. The same goes for virtually every bat in the lineup. Virtually any stacking combination you can come up with should work well here for the 2nd highest projected offense tonight (5.2 runs).

Trevor Bauer owns a 16.3K% and 4.72 xFIP against RHB this season

Although a small sample size, Trevor Bauer owns a 31.1K% against LHB through 10.1 IP this season. While that’s an elite mark, he has struggled against RHB this season as he owns a 16.3K% and an 4.72 xFIP while pitching against them this year. Luckily for the Astros, their lineup doesn’t feature many lefties tonight, and the ones that are playing hit very well against RHP. The Astro’s own a Vegas projected run total of 4.39 tonight, making them solid targets in all formats tonight. As usual, Jose Altuve (.415 wOBA – 174 wRC+ against RHP this year) and Carlos Correa (.391 wOBA – 157 wRC+ – .222 ISO against RHP this year) are top plays at their respective positions this evening. Though slumping, both George Springer and Colby Rasmus make for excellent GPP plays tonight given their power potential.