Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 10th
It appears daily fantasy players have lucked out with a rainout on Monday keeping Jon Lester on an otherwise unexciting board on Tuesday. While we’re going to have to dig down for a couple of potential sleepers, and we may have them tonight, it’s pretty clear that there are only a couple of expectably strong pitchers tonight.
Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 4.5 | 3.9 | 5.35 | 0.99 | 1 | 3.93 | 3.65 | MIL | 80 | 91 | 112 |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | -3.9 | 4.82 | 5.48 | 0.64 | 0.96 | 5.15 | 3.95 | ATL | 61 | 46 | 54 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | -1.1 | 3.81 | 6.07 | 1.65 | 0.9 | 3.42 | 2.12 | NYM | 119 | 112 | 95 |
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | -3.5 | 4.51 | 5.84 | 1.42 | 1.02 | 4.24 | 4.2 | PIT | 114 | 109 | 80 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 11.7 | 4.13 | 5.72 | 1.66 | 1.07 | 3.92 | 3.44 | TEX | 95 | 98 | 94 |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 1.8 | 4.86 | 5.37 | 2.08 | 1.03 | 3.94 | 4.71 | CHC | 105 | 117 | 141 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | -0.3 | 4.2 | 5.59 | 2.04 | 1.37 | 3.9 | 3.24 | ARI | 95 | 110 | 91 |
| Christopher Devenski | HOU | 0 | 3.36 | 5.5 | 0.88 | 1.01 | 2.97 | 4.12 | CLE | 87 | 106 | 106 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 20 | 4.45 | 5.91 | 1.01 | 1.07 | 4.35 | 6.79 | CHW | 98 | 102 | 120 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | -0.4 | 3.39 | 5.92 | 0.81 | 0.9 | 3.44 | 2.94 | SEA | 93 | 104 | 128 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 8.5 | 4.37 | 5.4 | 0.62 | 0.92 | 4.81 | 5.92 | STL | 119 | 97 | 84 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.6 | 3.89 | 5.78 | 1.11 | 0.89 | 3.64 | 3.88 | SFO | 118 | 113 | 91 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -9.8 | 3.13 | 6.32 | 1.37 | 0.9 | 3.35 | 4.88 | LOS | 66 | 82 | 90 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 6.2 | 3.76 | 5.72 | 1.47 | 1.02 | 3.35 | 3.56 | DET | 109 | 109 | 64 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 11 | 3.22 | 6.6 | 1.43 | 1.03 | 3.03 | 3.07 | SDG | 84 | 93 | 82 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | -4.5 | 4.16 | 4.55 | 1.5 | 1.03 | 3.98 | 4.16 | BAL | 106 | 125 | 106 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 8.6 | 4.01 | 4.79 | 1.33 | 1.02 | 4.2 | 3.77 | CIN | 89 | 76 | 107 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -4.8 | 3.88 | 5.81 | 1.17 | 1.03 | 4.2 | 3.73 | MIN | 98 | 92 | 68 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 12.8 | 4.63 | 5.08 | 1.51 | 1.02 | 4.99 | 6.06 | NYY | 103 | 81 | 85 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -7 | 3.16 | 6.52 | 1.57 | 1.02 | 3.27 | 2.54 | KAN | 87 | 91 | 84 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | -5.5 | 4.56 | 5.48 | 0.99 | 0.89 | 4.92 | 5.1 | TOR | 89 | 95 | 103 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | -5.4 | 4.86 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 0.96 | 5.16 | 5.39 | PHI | 77 | 71 | 60 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | -6.3 | 3.56 | 5. | 2 | 1.02 | 3.37 | 3.56 | WAS | 77 | 80 | 102 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -15.1 | 3.88 | 6.29 | 1.93 | 0.92 | 3.89 | 4.6 | ANA | 89 | 87 | 90 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | -9.2 | 4.11 | 5.73 | 1.49 | 1.37 | 4.36 | 3.39 | COL | 97 | 88 | 76 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -14.4 | 4.44 | 5. | 1.6 | 1.07 | 4.44 | BOS | 120 | 80 | 130 | |
| Sean O’Sullivan | BOS | 2.6 | 5.04 | 5.48 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 5.1 | 3.51 | OAK | 104 | 93 | 101 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 10.3 | 4.08 | 5.81 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 4.18 | 4.17 | HOU | 117 | 104 | 130 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | -5.2 | 3.94 | 6.1 | 1.69 | 0.9 | 3.61 | 3.94 | TAM | 112 | 120 | 128 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | -10.6 | 4.64 | 5.31 | 2.26 | 1 | 3.95 | 4.98 | FLA | 93 | 102 | 110 |
Adam Conley has been kind of hit or miss this year and I’ve called him a mistake pitcher recently, meaning he’ll challenge hitters up in the zone with mistakes occasionally being hit hard and great success at other times. This has led to a 26.2 K%, but also an 18.3 Hard-Soft%. He has twice walked four in a game, but only a total of five in his four other starts. Milwaukee, if you’ll recall, was the team he was removed from the no-hitter with two outs in the eight against and also one of the starts where he walked four (striking out seven). The Brewers do have some power against LHP (15.8 HR/FB, 19.2 Hard-Soft%) and have been patient (13.2 BB%), but somehow have been below average overall despite leaning heavily right handed.
Adam Morgan was looking more interesting missing a ton of bats at AAA this year and a few more in his first start against Cleveland before being hit hard by the Cardinals. He still had a double digit SwStr% in that game though and now gets the Braves, which automatically throws his name in the hat of contenders tonight. This was a guy with a 13.9 K% last year and below average marks in the minors, so I still not entirely sold, but Atlanta sells themselves today. They are the second worst offense at home (3.7 HR/FB) and worst against LHP (20.0 K-BB%, 3.0 HR/FB). No other matchup comes close to being this good tonight.
Alex Wood struck out 12 of his first 100 batters and now 16 of 48 since with a double digit SwStr%. This overall version of him with a near average strikeout rate and a ton of ground balls can be useful. His 15.4 HR/FB is not a concern as he’s only allowed 26 fly balls through six starts. Am I going to regret throwing in my lot with him again? Probably, but the Mets have struck out 23.5% of the time vs LHP and it’s tough to hit ground balls for HRs.
Christopher Devenski has struck out 10 of 47 batters with a double digit SwStr% through two starts after moving from the bullpen to the rotation. There’s no real prospect status for the 25 year old rookie, but he now has a 23.2 K% through 24.2 innings, while walking just five batters. While he’s going to allow more than a 3.8 HR/FB, the peripherals look fine even if his ERA jumps two runs. It’s still a small sample and a 0.89 GB/FB can be dangerous in Houston, while Cleveland is not necessarily a favorable matchup, but they will strike out some (23.1% vs RHP).
Drew Smyly has struck out at least six with no more than two ERs in each of his last five starts and his last start was only the second time in six starts he failed to go six innings. If he could consistently pitch past the sixth inning, I’d have no real problem calling him one of the elite lefties in the game at this point. He began to show it as soon as he was traded to Tampa Bay as they taught him to elevate his fastball and he now has a 25.0 K% over the last two calendar years and closer to 30% over 100 innings since 2015. The Mariners have a 17.4 HR/FB vs LHP, but are no worse than a neutral matchup in a favorable park.
Jacob deGrom has struggled in each of his last two starts, though neither the ERA or SwStr% show it. The velocity is still two miles per hour down and he’s been out of the zone more often, though he did get the Padres to chase and swing at balls 42.9% of the time. His 85.8 mph aEV is lowest on the board today, so that’s something good. The Dodgers should give him more trouble, but they have been atrocious at home (third worst wRC+ in the majors) with just a 5.3 Hard-Soft% and going by 2016 stats alone would represent one of the better matchups tonight, although you still feel they’ll snap out of it at some point.
Joe Ross has pitched nowhere near as well as his ERA, but that’s okay. He has gone at least six innings in four of five and is coming off his best start against a tough Cubs offense. He’s missing bats and walking batters at about a league average rate and his batted ball profile looks perfectly average as well. His sinker/slider arsenal 90% of the time should probably lead to more groundballs, but it does dominate RHBs and there’s a lineup full of them he’ll be facing tonight. Detroit initially gave Strasburg some trouble last night before settling down and have not only whiffed 24.4% of the time vs RHP, but 26.1% of the time over the last week.
Jon Lester is one of fewer top arms on Tuesday night as he might have been lost in the shuffle had his game not been rained out on Monday. While he has only allowed more than one run once and gone at least seven innings in four of six starts (one of the two pitchers Maddon gives a longer leash two) his underlying numbers suggest the same excellence he’s demonstrated each of the last two seasons. One oddity is that he’s struck out four, five, and 10 twice each, all rounding out to a SwStr% and K% right at his rates the previous two seasons as well. He faces a San Diego offense that hasn’t been as bad against LHP, showing a little power with a nearly entirely right-handed lineup (12.3 HR/FB, 15.8 Hard-Soft%), but have also struck out 26.6% of the time vs southpaws.
Masahiro Tanaka just continues to dominate with a torn Tommy John, pitching well into the 7th inning in each of his last four starts with the top SwStr% on the board. He hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in a start and has solved his HR problem by generating the second highest GB% in the majors. It’s very rare for a pitcher to exhibit such bat missing and ground ball skills. The Royals have been striking out at a league average rate this year and have been a below average offense.
Michael Fulmer did not have great results in his second start, but has struck out 10 of 48 batters so far, issuing just three walks with a 2.0 GB/FB and average contact profile. This is a guy who has generated an above average strikeout rate in the high minors and faces an offense that only has one guy who can hit RHP if you don’t give Harper anything to hit and that’s his former organization-mate (real word?) from the Mets last year.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Juan Nicasio (.277 BABIP – 76.9 LOB% – 13.8 HR/FB) has had two great starts, while failing to strike out more than he’s walked in three of his other four and with a well below average SwStr%. While none of his quoted numbers are too far of league norms, they probably don’t fit his profile, as in a guy with a low SwStr% and bad control is not going to strand so many runners usually. He has continued to beat down RHBs, but still can’t get LHBs out consistently (.367 wOBA), making this not the worst matchup in the world and potentially a break even proposition for just over $6K on DraftKings, though tough to stomach for nearly $8K on FanDuel.
Kevin Gausman (.176 BABIP – 79.4 LOB% – 5.0 HR/FB) is still a pitcher I like despite his impending regression, his price has been all over the place this season. It started high, he pitched well, it dropped, and is now up $1K from his last start. This is tough for a pitcher who has failed to average six innings per start over his career and has exhibited a small reverse platoon split against an offense with a few RH bats that hit RH pitching well up top (Nunez, Sano). Again, it’s the cost more than the pitcher that’s undesirable today.
J.A. Happ (.282 BABIP – 87.8 LOB% – 9.5 HR/FB) hasn’t really done anything except strand runners. The skill gains from Pittsburgh have not carried over as he’s allowed a lot of hard contact and reduced his strikeout rate. The one bright spot would be that his 9.3 SwStr% is just about league average, which means he might see a few of those strikeouts return, but right now he’s over-priced based on a high LOB% and will have to face a tough lineup that hits LHP well and does not strike out.
Hector Santiago (.257 BABIP – 79.8 LOB% – 12.5 HR/FB) almost got me to finally bite as the increased velocity and SwStr% nearly got me, but both have taken a major dump over the last two games as the old Santiago returned with a hard hit rate well above 30%, two HRs, and five total strikeouts against as many walks.
Cesar Vargas (.273 BABIP – 97.2 LOB% – 8.3 HR/FB) has missed more bats than expected even if it hasn’t translated to that many strikeouts. He’s walked nine of 67 batters though and faces the most patient offense in the majors. He can’t keeping stranding them all.
Matt Wisler (.183 BABIP – 73.0 LOB% – 9.1 HR/FB) allowed just one hit through eight innings against the Mets in his last start, but had a 35.0 LD% and 45.0 Hard% in that start with just a 3.8 SwStr%. F-L-U-K-E!
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Wade Miley profiles much better than his ERA, especially when you take his SwStr% into account and I strongly wanted to consider pushing him through tonight, but the Rays are very tough on LHP and he’s yet another pitcher with a mind-boggling DraftKings cost this year.
Chris Rusin hasn’t pitched poorly and would almost be interesting outside of Colorado. As is though, he ends up with the worst park adjusted matchup of the night.
Jose Berrios has walked seven of 43 batters, but also struck out 13. He’s a talented pitcher whose time should come fairly soon, but he’s facing one of the top offenses vs RHP (16.6 HR/FB).
Sean Manaea struggled with control in his first start and hard contact in his second, facing two dangerous offenses (HOU, SEA) and faces another one, though they’ve struggled against LHP (23.9 K%, 2.7 Hard-Soft%). It’s kind of difficult to see why when you look at their lineup as four of their standard top five hit right handed.
Trevor Bauer costs how much on DraftKings? I don’t even want to repeat that number.
Carlos Rodon has an identical 22.9 K% to last season with a SwStr% 2.6 points lower and even worse than that over the last month (6.6%).
Rubby de la Rosa is probably going to be revisited after he gets through Colorado. He’s thrown the ball better and might end up being one of the few bright spots for this rotation, though it’s too soon to say.
Sean O’Sullivan has an ERA with estimators well above five in over 300 major league innings, but has surprisingly dominated AAA this season (20.8 K-BB% in 33 innings).
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 22.6% | 8.3% | Home | 23.9% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 10.6% |
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | L2 Years | 14.8% | 5.1% | Road | 12.8% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 7.3% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.0% | 7.3% | Home | 21.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 2.1% |
| Alfredo Simon | Reds | L2 Years | 15.3% | 7.7% | Home | 16.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 9.6% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 22.9% | 11.3% | Road | 22.0% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 7.1% |
| Cesar Vargas | Padres | L2 Years | 17.9% | 13.4% | Road | 26.1% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 13.0% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | L2 Years | 15.3% | 7.3% | Home | 15.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 11.4% |
| Christopher Devenski | Astros | L2 Years | 23.2% | 5.3% | Home | 24.5% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 8.5% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 15.9% | 6.3% | Home | 17.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 2.3% | 6.8% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | L2 Years | 25.0% | 6.5% | Road | 26.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.1% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 20.6% | 9.0% | Home | 22.9% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.1% | 6.4% | Road | 22.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 25.9% | 6.1% | Road | 24.0% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 10.6% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.5% | 7.0% | Home | 21.3% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 7.7% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.3% | 5.6% | Home | 25.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 7.4% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 30.2% | 16.3% | Home | 25.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 16.3% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.9% | 10.2% | Road | 23.4% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 8.2% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.2% | 6.9% | Road | 20.8% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 4.3% |
| Kris Medlen | Royals | L2 Years | 16.7% | 10.1% | Road | 16.4% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 16.2% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.2% | 4.3% | Home | 22.5% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 1.8% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 16.2% | 7.7% | Home | 13.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 2.0% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 15.6% | 8.0% | Home | 15.1% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.3% | Road | 20.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.9% | 6.0% | Road | 15.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 4.3% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 18.6% | 7.8% | Road | 17.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 7.6% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.6% | 10.9% | Road | L14 Days | 19.6% | 10.9% | ||
| Sean O’Sullivan | Red Sox | L2 Years | 11.2% | 5.7% | Home | 12.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.9% | Road | 24.8% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.8% | Home | 19.1% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 3.6% |
| Zachary Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.0% | 10.8% | Road | 15.5% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 12.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Road | 24.6% | 11.2% | LH | 21.7% | 13.2% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.6% |
| Braves | Home | 23.1% | 8.0% | LH | 26.0% | 6.0% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.5% |
| Mets | Road | 22.0% | 9.2% | LH | 23.5% | 10.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 11.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.8% | 9.2% | RH | 18.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.5% | 7.8% | LH | 20.4% | 5.6% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.8% | 13.9% | RH | 20.2% | 12.4% | L7Days | 18.1% | 10.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.0% | 7.8% | LH | 21.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.6% |
| Indians | Road | 24.6% | 7.0% | RH | 23.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.7% | 10.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.8% | 6.8% | LH | 21.4% | 10.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 12.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.0% | 11.0% | LH | 21.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.1% | 10.5% | LH | 21.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 18.8% | 9.6% |
| Giants | Home | 16.7% | 11.0% | LH | 17.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.9% | 9.0% | RH | 22.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.0% | 6.4% | RH | 24.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 26.1% | 9.3% |
| Padres | Road | 29.5% | 7.0% | LH | 26.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 24.0% | 4.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.3% | 7.4% | RH | 21.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.6% |
| Reds | Home | 21.0% | 6.7% | RH | 22.5% | 6.2% | L7Days | 23.3% | 6.1% |
| Twins | Home | 17.5% | 8.3% | RH | 23.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.1% | 9.1% | RH | 19.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.9% | 7.8% |
| Royals | Road | 20.1% | 5.6% | RH | 19.5% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.6% | 4.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 25.6% | 10.4% | RH | 24.7% | 10.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 21.2% | 6.4% | RH | 22.0% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.0% | 5.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.7% | 10.1% | RH | 20.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.8% |
| Angels | Home | 16.0% | 8.7% | RH | 16.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.5% | 9.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 19.4% | 9.9% | RH | 18.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.3% | 5.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 19.5% | 9.0% | LH | 23.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.7% | 6.6% | RH | 18.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 15.1% | 6.9% |
| Astros | Home | 25.4% | 11.6% | RH | 26.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 23.0% | 11.3% |
| Rays | Road | 26.2% | 8.4% | LH | 23.2% | 6.0% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.7% | 7.8% | RH | 18.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | L2 Years | 26.1% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 2016 | 36.6% | 9.4% | 18.3% | Home | 29.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | L2 Years | 30.9% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 2016 | 41.4% | 8.3% | 27.6% | Road | 33.3% | 9.7% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 8.3% | 27.6% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 2016 | 31.1% | 15.4% | 9.4% | Home | 29.1% | 13.2% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 30.0% | 22.6% |
| Alfredo Simon | Reds | L2 Years | 30.8% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 2016 | 29.3% | 28.6% | 10.6% | Home | 28.3% | 10.5% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.8% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 2016 | 26.0% | 16.7% | 6.2% | Road | 27.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 18.2% | 10.5% |
| Cesar Vargas | Padres | L2 Years | 15.6% | 8.3% | -4.4% | 2016 | 15.6% | 8.3% | -4.4% | Road | 15.4% | 0.0% | -15.4% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 0.0% | -10.0% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.4% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 2016 | 27.8% | 0.0% | 16.7% | Home | 29.4% | 8.5% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 0.0% | 20.7% |
| Christopher Devenski | Astros | L2 Years | 29.4% | 3.8% | 8.8% | 2016 | 29.4% | 3.8% | 8.8% | Home | 34.2% | 0.0% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 0.0% | 15.1% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.8% | 8.9% | 18.0% | 2016 | 33.9% | 6.3% | 18.3% | Home | 31.4% | 12.3% | 20.3% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 5.6% | 17.5% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 2016 | 28.0% | 10.4% | 6.5% | Road | 32.2% | 11.1% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 12.5% | 4.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 32.1% | 9.5% | 16.5% | 2016 | 31.5% | 12.5% | 16.2% | Home | 32.9% | 9.4% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 11.1% | 17.1% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 32.6% | 10.3% | 15.9% | 2016 | 32.2% | 9.5% | 16.5% | Road | 33.0% | 12.9% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 28.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 2016 | 27.8% | 4.8% | 8.4% | Road | 29.1% | 13.5% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.0% | 5.8% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.5% | 7.3% | 12.6% | 2016 | 23.8% | 0.0% | 13.8% | Home | 26.2% | 4.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 0.0% | 35.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 2016 | 24.3% | 13.8% | 0.9% | Home | 28.5% | 13.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.1% | 5.7% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 27.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 2016 | 27.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | Home | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 24.8% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 2016 | 18.4% | 13.8% | -6.9% | Road | 25.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 12.5% | -8.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 27.8% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 2016 | 25.0% | 5.0% | 1.9% | Road | 30.2% | 12.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Kris Medlen | Royals | L2 Years | 28.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 2016 | 32.9% | 9.1% | 12.9% | Road | 23.7% | 4.4% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 12.5% | 3.9% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 30.7% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 2016 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 4.6% | Home | 33.1% | 18.6% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 0.0% | -2.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 31.2% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 2016 | 28.3% | 13.6% | 5.3% | Home | 29.8% | 11.1% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 23.5% | 7.2% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 30.1% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 2016 | 37.1% | 9.1% | 13.4% | Home | 30.6% | 6.3% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 47.2% | 6.3% | 22.2% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.7% | 22.2% | 8.6% | 2016 | 25.7% | 22.2% | 8.6% | Road | 25.7% | 22.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 22.2% | 8.6% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.9% | 13.8% | 15.1% | 2016 | 35.9% | 19.4% | 23.1% | Road | 27.7% | 14.6% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 28.6% | 15.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.2% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 2016 | 36.1% | 16.0% | 16.8% | Road | 25.0% | 14.9% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 7.1% | 25.7% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 32.3% | 20.0% | 19.4% | 2016 | 32.3% | 20.0% | 19.4% | Road | L14 Days | 32.3% | 20.0% | 19.4% | |||
| Sean O’Sullivan | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.6% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 2016 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | Home | 31.2% | 5.5% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 30.1% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 2016 | 36.1% | 15.0% | 16.4% | Road | 28.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 22.2% | 10.0% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 2016 | 26.9% | 12.8% | 5.0% | Home | 26.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.7% | -6.8% |
| Zachary Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.9% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 2016 | 34.3% | 11.1% | 10.4% | Road | 24.4% | 0.0% | -3.7% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 11.1% | 12.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | Road | 26.9% | 14.9% | 7.1% | LH | 34.9% | 15.8% | 19.2% | L7Days | 31.5% | 22.7% | 11.6% |
| Braves | Home | 30.2% | 3.7% | 13.2% | LH | 30.2% | 3.0% | 14.1% | L7Days | 30.3% | 5.4% | 15.9% |
| Mets | Road | 36.7% | 17.8% | 24.2% | LH | 31.3% | 13.9% | 11.7% | L7Days | 38.8% | 18.3% | 25.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 31.9% | 11.2% | 11.7% | RH | 28.4% | 9.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 27.1% | 10.2% | 1.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 26.1% | 10.0% | 4.0% | LH | 27.8% | 11.5% | 4.4% | L7Days | 30.1% | 14.5% | 12.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.1% | 10.4% | 12.6% | RH | 31.9% | 13.0% | 14.5% | L7Days | 34.3% | 14.1% | 16.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 30.3% | 12.3% | 9.1% | LH | 37.6% | 21.1% | 18.8% | L7Days | 32.1% | 11.1% | 12.4% |
| Indians | Road | 30.8% | 11.0% | 11.5% | RH | 30.3% | 12.4% | 13.7% | L7Days | 29.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 28.1% | 10.2% | 9.6% | LH | 29.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 28.0% | 11.1% | 4.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 26.7% | 12.5% | 6.9% | LH | 27.7% | 17.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 27.9% | 17.7% | 7.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.5% | 15.4% | 13.8% | LH | 33.0% | 11.6% | 18.2% | L7Days | 31.0% | 9.3% | 15.5% |
| Giants | Home | 28.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | LH | 26.9% | 9.5% | 3.3% | L7Days | 31.8% | 5.3% | 13.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 27.0% | 9.5% | 5.3% | RH | 30.9% | 7.2% | 12.8% | L7Days | 34.8% | 14.9% | 24.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 33.6% | 12.6% | 17.3% | RH | 33.3% | 12.5% | 17.1% | L7Days | 29.7% | 10.0% | 12.1% |
| Padres | Road | 33.1% | 12.8% | 15.9% | LH | 30.0% | 12.3% | 15.8% | L7Days | 32.4% | 11.8% | 18.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 30.8% | 15.5% | 9.9% | RH | 31.2% | 16.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.7% | 18.4% | -2.6% |
| Reds | Home | 31.3% | 17.5% | 16.2% | RH | 33.3% | 12.4% | 16.7% | L7Days | 36.5% | 23.9% | 22.4% |
| Twins | Home | 31.0% | 8.5% | 12.6% | RH | 30.7% | 10.0% | 13.2% | L7Days | 27.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 27.5% | 13.5% | 7.7% | RH | 25.8% | 14.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.6% | 11.9% | 7.4% |
| Royals | Road | 27.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | RH | 28.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 27.4% | 8.3% | 11.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 28.6% | 12.9% | 8.3% | RH | 32.0% | 11.6% | 15.2% | L7Days | 36.8% | 10.1% | 19.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.0% | 10.6% | 7.8% | RH | 25.1% | 9.0% | 3.6% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.7% | 1.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 28.9% | 9.0% | 10.6% | RH | 32.1% | 11.2% | 15.3% | L7Days | 37.7% | 13.5% | 22.2% |
| Angels | Home | 28.2% | 13.1% | 8.3% | RH | 27.0% | 9.7% | 4.8% | L7Days | 32.8% | 3.2% | 17.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 31.4% | 13.5% | 14.8% | RH | 31.3% | 12.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 29.3% | 5.0% | 14.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 32.4% | 10.7% | 16.9% | LH | 24.1% | 8.3% | 2.7% | L7Days | 32.3% | 20.3% | 14.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.1% | 11.7% | 11.5% | RH | 29.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.5% | 2.8% |
| Astros | Home | 35.4% | 13.1% | 19.1% | RH | 34.4% | 15.4% | 16.9% | L7Days | 37.4% | 13.8% | 22.5% |
| Rays | Road | 36.2% | 16.1% | 19.8% | LH | 34.4% | 14.0% | 17.4% | L7Days | 36.8% | 20.3% | 21.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 28.0% | 12.3% | 4.6% | RH | 26.6% | 11.8% | 4.1% | L7Days | 35.5% | 15.5% | 17.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 26.2% | 10.8% | 2.43 | 26.0% | 10.8% | 2.41 |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 22.0% | 14.4% | 1.53 | 22.0% | 14.4% | 1.53 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 18.9% | 8.3% | 2.28 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.36 |
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 | 16.3% | 8.2% | 1.99 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 22.9% | 7.5% | 3.05 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.56 |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 17.9% | 9.9% | 1.81 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 1.81 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.06 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 2.20 |
| Christopher Devenski | HOU | 23.2% | 11.5% | 2.02 | 21.2% | 11.3% | 1.88 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 13.0% | 6.8% | 1.91 | 11.1% | 6.1% | 1.82 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 31.5% | 13.3% | 2.37 | 34.4% | 14.0% | 2.46 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 20.5% | 10.2% | 2.01 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 1.83 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 15.7% | 9.3% | 1.69 | 15.8% | 8.5% | 1.86 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 17.2% | 12.5% | 1.38 | 14.1% | 12.0% | 1.18 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 20.2% | 9.9% | 2.04 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 2.04 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.7% | 9.8% | 2.52 | 26.4% | 10.2% | 2.59 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 30.2% | 10.1% | 2.99 | 30.2% | 10.1% | 2.99 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 23.9% | 7.5% | 3.19 | 21.9% | 7.0% | 3.13 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 20.0% | 8.8% | 2.27 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 2.27 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 17.1% | 9.0% | 1.90 | 17.1% | 9.0% | 1.90 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 22.9% | 13.7% | 1.67 | 23.7% | 14.5% | 1.63 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 14.5% | 7.6% | 1.91 | 14.9% | 7.8% | 1.91 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 17.4% | 6.6% | 2.64 | 16.4% | 5.5% | 2.98 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 20.8% | 8.7% | 2.39 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 2.39 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 14.6% | 5.4% | 2.70 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 2.88 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 24.8% | 10.6% | 2.34 | 27.5% | 11.2% | 2.46 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 19.6% | 9.3% | 2.11 | 19.6% | 9.3% | 2.11 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | BOS | 20.0% | 15.8% | 1.27 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 1.27 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 23.4% | 9.3% | 2.52 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 2.50 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 18.0% | 11.4% | 1.58 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 1.47 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 14.1% | 7.8% | 1.81 | 14.1% | 7.8% | 1.81 |
Jacob deGrom – The SwStr% is still there and it seems like he should have more punchouts, but something seems off from just watching his starts even if the only place you can see it in his overall numbers is velocity. Hopefully this means a lot more strikeouts though.
Masahiro Tanaka has the sixth highest SwStr% in the majors and has been above 12% in each of his last five starts. Brian McCann was a below average framing catcher last year (-2.5 RAA per StatCorner.com), but did have a strong reputation at one time and is up to +3.5 RAA this year. He has good control. My early inclination is that he’s line to become one of the elite strikeout pitchers should his SwStr% continue at this pace.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 3.06 | 3.74 | 0.68 | 3.8 | 0.74 | 3.47 | 0.41 | 2.3 | 3.62 | 1.32 | 3.66 | 1.36 | 3.42 | 1.12 |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 6 | 3.95 | -2.05 | 4.14 | -1.86 | 3.52 | -2.48 | 6 | 3.95 | -2.05 | 4.14 | -1.86 | 3.52 | -2.48 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 5.18 | 3.92 | -1.26 | 3.87 | -1.31 | 4.22 | -0.96 | 4.5 | 3.76 | -0.74 | 3.68 | -0.82 | 4.43 | -0.07 |
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | 9.86 | 4.34 | -5.52 | 4.76 | -5.1 | 6.93 | -2.93 | 12.38 | 4.79 | -7.59 | 5.13 | -7.25 | 8.26 | -4.12 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 4.36 | 3.79 | -0.57 | 3.56 | -0.8 | 4.01 | -0.35 | 4.85 | 4.03 | -0.82 | 3.8 | -1.05 | 4.11 | -0.74 |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 1.1 | 4.86 | 3.76 | 4.58 | 3.48 | 4.24 | 3.14 | 1.1 | 4.86 | 3.76 | 4.58 | 3.48 | 4.24 | 3.14 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 4.43 | 3.23 | -1.2 | 3.11 | -1.32 | 2.58 | -1.85 | 3.32 | 3.09 | -0.23 | 2.9 | -0.42 | 2.49 | -0.83 |
| Christopher Devenski | HOU | 1.46 | 3.36 | 1.9 | 3.53 | 2.07 | 2.42 | 0.96 | 1.66 | 3.65 | 1.99 | 3.68 | 2.02 | 2.7 | 1.04 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 5.4 | 5.23 | -0.17 | 5.33 | -0.07 | 4.21 | -1.19 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 0.1 | 5.55 | 0.15 | 4.08 | -1.32 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 2.72 | 2.73 | 0.01 | 3.26 | 0.54 | 3.02 | 0.3 | 1.91 | 2.44 | 0.53 | 2.99 | 1.08 | 2.04 | 0.13 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.58 | 4.19 | 0.61 | 4.38 | 0.8 | 4.48 | 0.9 | 3.69 | 4.38 | 0.69 | 4.54 | 0.85 | 4.59 | 0.9 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 2.5 | 4.49 | 1.99 | 4.44 | 1.94 | 4.11 | 1.61 | 2.41 | 4.39 | 1.98 | 4.23 | 1.82 | 3.96 | 1.55 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.99 | 3.97 | 1.98 | 3.76 | 1.77 | 2.9 | 0.91 | 2.16 | 4.42 | 2.26 | 4.26 | 2.1 | 3.55 | 1.39 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 1.23 | 4.05 | 2.82 | 3.9 | 2.67 | 2.63 | 1.4 | 1.23 | 4.05 | 2.82 | 3.9 | 2.67 | 2.63 | 1.4 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 1.58 | 3.28 | 1.7 | 2.97 | 1.39 | 3.15 | 1.57 | 1.64 | 3.26 | 1.62 | 2.96 | 1.32 | 3.41 | 1.77 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 6.75 | 4.15 | -2.6 | 3.85 | -2.9 | 5.64 | -1.11 | 6.75 | 4.16 | -2.59 | 3.85 | -2.9 | 5.64 | -1.11 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 3.16 | 4.11 | 0.95 | 3.9 | 0.74 | 4.13 | 0.97 | 3.55 | 4.57 | 1.02 | 4.22 | 0.67 | 4.41 | 0.86 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 1.42 | 3.73 | 2.31 | 3.86 | 2.44 | 2.91 | 1.49 | 1.42 | 3.73 | 2.31 | 3.86 | 2.44 | 2.91 | 1.49 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 6.85 | 5.58 | -1.27 | 5.27 | -1.58 | 4.91 | -1.94 | 6.85 | 5.58 | -1.27 | 5.27 | -1.58 | 4.91 | -1.94 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 2.29 | 2.94 | 0.65 | 2.93 | 0.64 | 2.56 | 0.27 | 2.14 | 2.93 | 0.79 | 2.91 | 0.77 | 2.24 | 0.1 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 7.84 | 4.79 | -3.05 | 4.98 | -2.86 | 5.3 | -2.54 | 9 | 4.82 | -4.18 | 5.12 | -3.88 | 5.95 | -3.05 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 3.24 | 4.44 | 1.2 | 4.82 | 1.58 | 4.33 | 1.09 | 2.7 | 4.66 | 1.96 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 4.38 | 1.68 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 6.3 | 3.56 | -2.74 | 3.37 | -2.93 | 4.57 | -1.73 | 6.3 | 3.56 | -2.74 | 3.37 | -2.93 | 4.57 | -1.73 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 6.03 | 4.34 | -1.69 | 4.24 | -1.79 | 5.11 | -0.92 | 5.7 | 3.91 | -1.79 | 3.87 | -1.83 | 5.07 | -0.63 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 4.6 | 3.38 | -1.22 | 3.64 | -0.96 | 4.09 | -0.51 | 3.12 | 2.92 | -0.2 | 3.17 | 0.05 | 3.92 | 0.8 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 7.2 | 4.44 | -2.76 | 4.62 | -2.58 | 5.67 | -1.53 | 7.2 | 4.44 | -2.76 | 4.62 | -2.58 | 5.67 | -1.53 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | BOS | 9 | 3.51 | -5.49 | 4.17 | -4.83 | 1.07 | -7.93 | 9 | 3.51 | -5.49 | 4.17 | -4.83 | 1.07 | -7.93 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.14 | 3.69 | -1.45 | 4.02 | -1.12 | 4.41 | -0.73 | 5 | 3.79 | -1.21 | 4.03 | -0.97 | 4.18 | -0.82 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 4.74 | 3.99 | -0.75 | 3.9 | -0.84 | 4.02 | -0.72 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 0.11 | 4.2 | -0.02 | 4.23 | 0.01 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 6.98 | 5.08 | -1.9 | 5.03 | -1.95 | 4.93 | -2.05 | 6.98 | 5.08 | -1.9 | 5.03 | -1.95 | 4.93 | -2.05 |
Adam Conley probably has some give in a .253 BABIP and 79.3 LOB%.
Alex Wood – This is part the 15.4 HR/FB, but also the .324 BABIP. Though the numbers in the BABIP chart actually look good, his ground balls haven’t exactly been of the weak variety (31.1 Hard%) and he does have a .311 career BABIP so far. The 61.7 LOB% is almost certain to improve significantly.
Christopher Devenski – We discussed the 3.8 HR/FB above and you can add an 89.8 LOB%, but the peripherals are still fine.
Jacob deGrom – While neither his BABIP nor LOB% are far out of line, this is more than just a 4.8 HR/FB (though it’s been just 7.9 through the early part of his career). His 11.8 K-BB% is cut in half from last year, though his SwStr% does suggest a few more strikeouts, so maybe it’s not as bad as it looks.
Joe Ross has a BABIP that’s too low for his batted ball profile, although the Nationals have been surprisingly competent in turning batted balls into outs. Was Ian Desmond that much of a butcher? He’s stranded 87.1% of this runners though, and hasn’t allowed a HR yet.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.303 | 0.253 | -0.05 | 0.213 | 0.0% | 87.7% |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 0.283 | 0.357 | 0.074 | 0.241 | 8.3% | 78.3% |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.274 | 0.324 | 0.05 | 0.168 | 11.5% | 89.0% |
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | 0.276 | 0.420 | 0.144 | 0.227 | 0.0% | 83.9% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.271 | 0.304 | 0.033 | 0.213 | 8.3% | 89.4% |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 0.296 | 0.273 | -0.023 | 0.14 | 8.3% | 90.1% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 0.307 | 0.339 | 0.032 | 0.255 | 0.0% | 85.6% |
| Christopher Devenski | HOU | 0.305 | 0.313 | 0.008 | 0.279 | 7.7% | 80.5% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 0.284 | 0.283 | -0.001 | 0.22 | 10.4% | 89.7% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 0.272 | 0.205 | -0.067 | 0.118 | 16.7% | 81.3% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.284 | 0.257 | -0.027 | 0.136 | 12.5% | 82.2% |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.282 | 0.282 | 0 | 0.242 | 9.5% | 82.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.321 | 0.310 | -0.011 | 0.188 | 4.8% | 82.4% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.277 | 0.250 | -0.027 | 0.253 | 4.2% | 85.5% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.251 | 0.282 | 0.031 | 0.272 | 10.3% | 86.2% |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.315 | 0.350 | 0.035 | 0.286 | 16.7% | 82.6% |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 0.297 | 0.277 | -0.02 | 0.235 | 10.3% | 85.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.302 | 0.176 | -0.126 | 0.137 | 15.0% | 91.8% |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 0.285 | 0.324 | 0.039 | 0.2 | 9.1% | 82.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.314 | 0.250 | -0.064 | 0.165 | 11.5% | 82.3% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.324 | 0.355 | 0.031 | 0.266 | 11.4% | 89.7% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.293 | 0.183 | -0.11 | 0.146 | 9.1% | 93.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.311 | 0.455 | 0.144 | 0.229 | 0.0% | 92.9% |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.283 | 0.279 | -0.004 | 0.259 | 3.2% | 95.8% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.310 | 0.278 | -0.032 | 0.169 | 8.0% | 86.6% |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.302 | 0.310 | 0.008 | 0.133 | 10.0% | 98.0% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | BOS | 0.294 | 0.500 | 0.206 | 0.25 | 0.0% | 71.4% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.277 | 0.310 | 0.033 | 0.183 | 0.0% | 83.8% |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 0.272 | 0.325 | 0.053 | 0.205 | 7.7% | 84.3% |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 0.327 | 0.400 | 0.073 | 0.234 | 11.1% | 85.1% |
Drew Smyly – The defense has allowed a low BABIP and though the LD% is unsustainable, all of his numbers here look great, averaging more than a popup per start. He now has a career .279 BABIP so there might be some suppression skills plus defensive help that could keep him in the .250-280 range.
Masahiro Tanaka has a .266 career BABIP now in a still small sample, but now his profile has significantly changed to where he’s generating tons of weak ground balls (25.5 Hard%) rather than a more average batted ball and contact profile. This should bode well for his BABIP, not saying that he’ll improve it, but he now may be able to maintain it……if his defense cooperates.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Michael Fulmer (7) – I’m going to tell you right off the bat that there may be some bias here. I may be pushing him harder than I should because he’s A) a prospect and we all love prospects and B) a former prospect of a team I follow closely, but this is a guy who’s thrown his slider over 20% of the time in his first two starts and can generate strikeouts against a RH heavy lineup who can’t hit RH pitching. He’s below $7K on either site and closer to $6K on FanDuel.
Drew Smyly (2t) still seems underpriced on FanDuel for less than $10K, although his one drawback at this point does seem to be not consistently getting deep into games. The K% is fifth in the majors, the SwStr% is seventh. This is a borderline elite lefty.
Masahiro Tanaka (2t) is $9.8K on either site tonight and has been just as good as Smyly with more innings. Whereas the difference between Smyly and Lester is more cost, the difference here is in competition. The Royals haven’t been up to par this season, but still aren’t expected to strike out a lot from here out and Tanaka has historically struggled with HRs at home (18.6 HR/FB since 2015) and we can’t be completely sure he’s over those issues yet, though it looks very good. In fact, I started him in the Tier Two before pushing him up one.
Value Tier Two
Jon Lester (1) has seen his cost rise $400 on DraftKings by getting rained out last night. How the hell did that happen? You would think, if anything, that he would drop in value with a higher cost tonight, but he actually gains value because the quality around him has dropped so significantly. There’s no questioning this is one of the few top arms in one of the better spots tonight with only cost more than $1.5K higher than Smyly on either site distancing them in value. An early look at Kevin’s morning report at least believes the fate of this game should be clear well before lock, but where last night you were just hopeful (and got) that clarity before game time, you’re probably more hopeful the game plays tonight.
Christopher Devenski (8t) has shown All Star quality peripherals through his first 95 major league batters. That’s a small sample and it’s true exactly half of them were faced coming out of the bullpen, though only one stint went just one inning. If he were to consistently pitch this way going forward, his cost would nearly double. He’s done nothing but fire strikes and miss bats at an above average rate so far and while his non-prospect status might mean few expect him to keep this up, it also means few will be on him tonight. If he gives you six innings with three runs and five strikeouts, it’s probably a win.
Alex Wood (6) looks like he might be useful now that he’s suddenly missing bats again. It’s not something to completely buy into yet, but even if he can keep his K rate between 17-20% with all those ground balls, he’s going to have some value and he faces a team with a high strikeout rate against LHP. He does have one of the larger discrepancies in cost today though, so I’d probably bump him down a tier on FanDuel.
Value Tier Three
Joe Ross (5) is about as average in cost as you can be, hovering around the $8K mark and faces a tough Detroit offense, who can hit RHP, but a lineup full of RHBs perfectly suits his skill set. He’s held 211 RHBs to a .192 wOBA so far in his early career.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Adam Morgan has a 14.4 SwStr% through two starts and faces the Braves at a below average price. Even if you still have your doubts about a guy who showed nothing in 84 major league innings last year, Atlanta gets him there.
1
Adam Conley (8t) has seen his price rise into the average and above range. While he’s nearly pitched a no-hitter against these Brewers already, I’m not so convinced that they’re a bad offense against LHP considering a nearly average K% and an above average BB%, HR/FB, and Hard contact rate. So what we have here is a potentially league average or slightly a better pitcher at around an average cost in a neutral spot.
Jacob deGrom (4) – Maybe he’ll come out throwing 94 mph with all five pitches he uses more than 10% of the time for strikes. I think it’s all those different looks that have allowed him to remain competitive with lesser quality stuff. Hopefully, he’ll throw more strikes. It’s just all a bit worrisome for the second highest priced pitcher on the board.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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