DFS Alerts
Orioles have 2nd best 126 wRC+ vs RHP
Jose Berrios will likely claim the top spot in the Minnesota very soon, but it may not be tonight. He’s walked seven of the first 43 batters he’s faced with a .443 wOBA allowed to LHBs in a super small sample size, but he faces one of the top offenses vs RHP this year (125 wRC+). The Orioles have a 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP and retain a 15.5 HR/FB on the road. This is likely a bit tougher park for LH power than they usually see in the AL East, but no park can hold Chris Davis (159 wRC+, .344 ISO, 44.8 Hard% vs RHP since 2015). He has been struggling (12 wRC+, 18.0 Hard% last seven days), but retains a 255 ft avg distance on the season. Manny Machado (154 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP) might have better luck from the other side (235 wRC+ last seven days). One interesting and very affordable place to look for potential power is Pedro Alvarez (117 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP), who has become a forgotten man batting 7th for $3.2K or less. He has a 40.0 Hard% over the last week that matches Berrios’s 38.5 Hard% allowed to LHBs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Jose Berrios, Manny Machado, Pedro Alvarez
Carlos Rodon has allowed a .348 wOBA to RHBs
Carlos Rodon has allowed a .348 wOBA to RHBs and hasn’t really improved since last season. His identical 22.9 K% is a bit of a fluke with a 7.5 SwStr% that’s 25% lower than his 10.1% mark last year and while he is generating a few more ground balls, it’s not really what the White Sox were hoping for yet. The low SwStr% is concerning and probably removes him from play for us tonight, but players can look at some Texas RH bats as the Rangers have uncharacteristically and probably rightfully moved some parts around the lineup vs the lefty. Ian Desmond bats cleanup and has a .211 ISO, 122 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Adrian Beltre still smokes lefties (146 wRC+, .232 ISO). Neither are cheap, but don’t run much above $3K or $4K depending on your site of choice. Delino DeShields tops the lineup, but has been below average vs LHP (92 wRC+ since 2015) and ice cold (-14 wRC+ last seven days). Ryan Rua is only an average hitter vs LHP at best (94 wRC+), but hits 6th for less than $3K if you’re in a bind for salary.
Other tagged players: Ian Desmond, Delino DeShields, Carlos Rodon, Ryan Rua White Sox RHB’s make for solid plays against LHP Derek Holland
Through 31.1 IP this season, Derek Holland has performed considerable worse against right handed batters. He is allowing them a .343 wOBA while owning a 5.36 xFIP and low 13.3K%. Holland shouldn’t be in consideration in any format tonight. The White Sox have a few hitters who crush LHP and own a Vegas projected run total of 4.66, making them very solid stack candidates in GPP’s. Todd Frazier (.356 wOBA – .244 ISO – 124 wRC+ career vs LHP) is coming off a 2 HR game last night, and is another favorable position tonight. Jose Abreu (.364 wOBA – .204 ISO – 133 wRC+) will likely be a popular 1B this evening, and with good reason. Brett Lawrie (.354 wOBA – .191 ISO – 128 wRC+ vs LHP in 2015) makes for an interesting play as he also hit LHP well last season and throughout his career.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Brett Lawrie, Derek Holland
Early Notable Inactives: M. Cabrera, D. Ortiz, Teixeira, Jaso, Lowrie, Mazara, Gattis
There are some big names missing from lineups tonight, including Miguel Cabrera and David Ortiz. Check out our Starting Lineups page (linked below) for a full breakdown of tonight’s confirmed lineups.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Lineups Page Other tagged players: David Ortiz
Sean O’Sullivan owned 10.7K%, 5.37 xFIP as a starter in 2015
Sean O’Sullivan was not a very good starting pitcher in 2015, as he owned a dismal 10.7K% to go along with a 5.37 xFIP and a SIERA of 5.18. He will be facing the Athletics tonight, who own a Vegas projected run total of 4.65. O’Sullivan shouldn’t be in consideration in any format tonight. While their offense hasn’t been overpowering this season, the A’s make for a legitimate stack target given the matchup. Josh Reddick (.403 wOBA vs RHP in 2016) and Stephen Vogt (.327 wOBA career vs RHP) represent the top plays, but realistically you can consider any of the hitters 1-6 when deciding your GPP stacks this evening.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Stephen Vogt Wisler one hit Mets through 8 IP last start, but 45 Hard% and 3.8 SwStr%
Matt Wisler’s one hit performance against the Mets through eight innings was a complete fluke. He had a 35.0 LD% with a 45.0 Hard% and just a 3.8 SwStr%, bringing his season BABIP to .183. The Phillies aren’t normally a team we look to roster, especially in a pitcher’s park, but there may be some value in the top of this lineup tonight, though Maikel Franco is struggling (68 wRC+, 25.0 Hard% last seven days). Ryan Howard has a .242 ISO vs RHP since last season and 142 wRC+ with a 42.9 Hard% over the last week. He’s under $3.5K on DraftKings and near the bare minimum on Fanduel. At the same cost on DK (more expensive on FD), Odubel Herrera (119 wRC+ vs RHP, 47.4 Hard% last week) might be the best hitter in this lineup against RHP. Lastly, Cesar Hernandez (83 wRC+ vs RHP) is not a good hitter, but does bat 2nd for less than $3K against a pitcher who doesn’t miss bats and has been fortunate with his hard contact.
Other tagged players: Maikel Franco, Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Matt Wisler Yankees lineup is bare, but affordable at home vs Medlen
Kris Medlen is a shell of his former self this season with a 16.2 BB% and 32.9% hard hit rate. The Yankees would appear to be in a strong spot tonight, but who the heck are these guys? Mostly cheap is what they are. Brian McCann (109 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP since 2015) homered last night and remains in the 3rd slot. He has 129 wRC+ at home since last season and 153 wRC+ with a 43.8 Hard% over the last week. He’s affordable on either site for well under $4K. Carlos Beltran is even more affordable and has a 121 wRC+, .203 ISO since last season vs RHP. Brett Gardner (109 wRC+ vs RHP) is more expensive, but if Medlen is going to start giving out free passes, he has a 140 wRC+ at home since 2015 and 160 wRC+ over the last week and might be the one to benefit the most atop the lineup. Lastly, Dustin Ackley has just an 89 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015, but a .191 ISO and moves up to 5th in this lineup with a low price tag. He’s also 2B eligible on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Brett Gardner, Kris Medlen, Carlos Beltran, Dustin Ackley Nationals have a 77 wRC+ at home, 80 wRC+ vs RHP
As we well know by now, only the two LHBs in the middle hit RHP even remotely close to average and it takes their crushing righties to bring the rest of the team up from abysmal to bad. Not a single RH bat in this lineup has a wRC+ above 82 against RHP since last season. While Bryce Harper is always a top play if you can afford him, teams are no longer pitching to him and neither he nor Murphy are what players would call affordably priced. Michael Fulmer is a strong prospect with middle of the rotation upside and has struck out 10 of 48 batters with just three walks and a 2.0 GB/FB. He has similarly generated high strikeout rates in the minors and is a bit of a sleeper pick here for under $7K if you’re looking to play some expensive bats. As with many games tonight though, be sure to keep an eye on Kevin’s weather report as this game looked to be at risk as of early this afternoon.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy Miguel Cabrera OUT of the lineup against Ross, who dominates RHBs (.192 wOBA)
Joe Ross throws a sinker or slider 90% of the time and while it hasn’t led to as many ground balls as his brother with a similar repertoire, it makes sense he would dominate RHBs (.192 wOBA) and struggle with lefties (.341 wOBA) since he arrived. It also makes sense that the Tigers might pick today to rest Miguel Cabrera and get another LHB (Victor Martinez) in the lineup. That’s still just one of the first seven from the left-side as Ross will face a lineup that has struck out 24.4% of the time against RHP and 26.1% over the last week. A price tag hovering around $8K puts him on the board as a play that might not be all that popular among casual players given the reputation of the offense, but could see higher ownership with Cabrera out. V.Mart has just an 80 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, leaving the Detroit lineup bare of daily fantasy interest as they’re projected for the 4th lowest run total (3.56) tonight. Make sure to keep up with Kevin’s weather reports as this was a game with some issues as of this morning.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Victor Martinez Tanaka is 6th in majors in SwStr%, 2nd in GB%; Moustakas still OUT
Masahiro Tanaka has solved his HR problem with a 59.6 GB% that’s 2nd best in the majors and a 13.7 SwStr% that’s 6th and isn’t even fully reflected in a 22.9 K% that might have room to grow. He can be had for $9.8K tonight because he pitches in a tough park where he has a history of allowing HRs (17.5 HR/FB career) against a lineup known for making contact….except they haven’t been doing that so much. The Royals have a 19.5 K% vs RHP, that’s still below average, but not near the 15% mark they’ve put up the past couple of years. They’ve been disappointing offensively as a whole. Tanaka, who combines a rare elite ground ball rate with an elite SwStr% has to be considered one of the top pitching options on the board for under $10K. It’s difficult to count out the Kansas City LH bats with power in this park (Hosmer, Morales, Gordon) because of this pitcher’s past history, but there are better spots to attack tonight as the Royals have the 2nd lowest run projection on the board (2.94).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer Conley nearly no-hit Brewers last time he faced them
This was the controversial spot where he was pulled with two outs in the 8th at 116 pitches after walking four, but not allowing a hit. Conley has been hit or miss this year, almost literally with a 26.3 K%, but 18.3 Hard-Soft%. The Brewers do line up with some RH power (though Santana is still out) and strike out less vs LHP (21.7%). It’s not necessarily a cake walk and Conley has increased in price and likely popularity as well tonight as he seems about an average value. Ryan Braun has a 163 wRC+, .261 ISO vs LHP since last season, but is expensive and Conley has actually exhibited a reverse platoon split with a .288 wOBA allowed to RHBs since debuting. The sample isn’t large enough to trust yet, but that should help him navigate a heavily right-handed lineup without much daily fantasy appeal tonight.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun Ortiz sits against young lefty Oakland prospect
Sean Manaea hasn’t had much success through his two major league starts, but is a highly regarded LH pitching prospect for Oakland. So much so, that David Ortiz is sitting tonight, but he hadn’t been hitting LHPs anyway and it’s not that much of a bump for the rookie as he’ll now have to battled RHBs in the top six slots. Boston has struggled against LHP (80 wRC+, 23.9 K%, 2.7 Hard-Soft%), but it’s tough to see why with some strong RH bats in the lineup and they’re a very tough offense to face at Fenway, so this might not be the spot to attack. It should be noted that Chris Young bats 5th with a 161 wRC+ vs LHP since last season at an affordable price and Josh Rutledge (159 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) is even cheaper right behind him. The better RH bats at the top of the order all cost over $4K and appear to be moderate values, while Hanley Ramirez has just a 79 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Boston does have the highest run projection (4.91) outside of Coors tonight, but that may just be because Manaea is an unknown among non-prospect following baseball fans.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Sean Manaea, Josh Rutledge, Hanley Ramirez Braves have a 61 wRC+ at home, 46 wRC+ (20.0 K-BB%) vs LHP
Adam Morgan has a double digit SwStr% through two starts and dominated AAA after just a 13.9 K% with the Phillies last year and low strikeout rates in the minors previously. While it’s still too early to buy into change and he has allowed six runs in nine innings, he throws left-handed and faces the Braves (3.7 HR/FB at home, 20.0 K-BB% & 3.0 HR/FB vs LHP). It’s the land of misfit batters in Atlanta and just about any LHP is usable, especially one who has shown some potential at a low price. That said, he’s previously been a bad pitcher and has allowed a .348 wOBA to RHBs. Even though Tyler Flowers (94 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) and Jeff Francoeur (81 wRC+ vs LHP) are poor hitters against LHP, they do occupy middle of the lineup spots for less than $3K. This still doesn’t make them attractive daily fantasy options, but it’s something players needing a punt should know.
Other tagged players: Tyler Flowers, Jeff Francoeur Freese bats leadoff vs Simon, Jaso OUT
Alfredo Simon pitched into the 8th inning in his last start or more than he had in his previous three starts combined. His ERA still sits over nine with a 28.6 HR/FB. He has allowed a .384 wOBA to LHBs since last season, so it’s unfortunate that the Pirates are down one lefty bat (Jaso), but that immediately makes Polanco at least interesting despite the high cost and just a 114 wRC+ and .148 ISO vs RHP since last season. RHBs have put a .333 wOBA on Simon since 2015 and shouldn’t be avoided as the Pirates still have a 4.74 run projection that’s near the top of the board, but the difficulty is in finding the value here as the best hitters, McCutchen (136 wRC+, .191 vs RHP) and Marte (129 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP) are two of the costliest on the board. Another issue is a questionable early forecast for this game. You’ll want to keep an eye on Kevin’s update later to make sure this game is going to be played.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, David Freese, Alfredo Simon Marlins one of top run projections (4.74) outside Coors with strong group of lefties.
Zach Davies has a 3.3 K-BB% with an ERA and estimators well over four in 53 innings of big league work, over which he’s allowed a higher wOBA to RHBs (.353 vs .317), but has proven hittable by good batters from either side. We’ll once again want to look at the first three lefties in the Miami lineup and Stanton, all of whom have a wRC+ between 126 and 142 vs RHP since last season with leadoff man Derek Dietrich being the highest (142). Christian Yelich (.150 ISO) is the only one of that bunch with an ISO not above .230 with Stanton’s .298 since last season leading there. All except Dietrich have exceeded a 93 mph aEV this year as well. This looks like a solid core group to target mediocre or worse RH pitchers with for the foreseeable future with tonight being no exception. In fact, Miami has one of the top run projections (4.74) outside of Coors tonight. Bour and Dietrich are both below $3.5K.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, Giancarlo Stanton, Zach Davies