DFS Alerts

Smash Spot (.400+ wOBA) for RHBs

A good time should be had in Detroit by Cubs’ bats tonight. Weather conditions aren’t expected to be the most hitter friendly, but they couldn’t ask for a better matchup. Tarik Skubal is coming off his best effort of the season, striking out eight of 21 Twins, bringing him up to a 20.8 K% and 10.3 SwStr% for the season. However, he still has a 12.8 BB% and the Twins took him deep twice more too, bringing his season total to 10 HRs allowed with 20.7% of his contact being Barrels this year. He’s generated 17 Barrels and just 18 ground balls. Since Skubal’s call-up last year, RHBs now have a .405 wOBA and .386 xwOBA against him with just a 20.7 GB%. Kris Bryant (184 wRC+, .346 ISO vs LHP since 2019), Willson Contreras (133 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Javier Baez (114 wRC+, .264 ISO) are all major threats tonight and all are above a 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. When Skubal exits (generally after two trips through the lineup), the Detroit bullpen has a major league worst 6.51 ERA over the last 30 days and only the Twins (5.32) have a worse FIP (5.27). In addition, one of the few quality arms in this bullpen, Gregory Soto, has pitched in three consecutive games. The Cubs are somewhere in the upper-middle of the board at 4.51 implied runs tonight.

Better Pitching, Worse Results

Highest upside spots on the board go to Aaron Civale (in Seattle), David Peterson (in Tampa Bay), German Marquez (vs Reds), Jake Arrieta (in Detroit), Joe Musgrove (vs Cardinals), Wade Miley (at Coors) and Zack Greinke (vs Rangers). Civale, Arrieta, Greinke and Miley all have strikeout rates below 21%. In addition, while still offering a lot of strikeouts, the Rangers have a 104 wRC+ vs RHP this year and the Rockies aren’t as bad against LHP (94 wRC+). Miley has not had his price tag jacked up at Coors after a no-hitter though and Greinke is just $7.5K on FanDuel. Arrieta received some comeuppance last time out in Cincinnati, when he surrendered three of his five season HRs. The 20.7 K% and 8 SwStr% are actually his best since 2017, but the 30.4 GB% is a career low by more than six points. On top of that, the velocity is lower than it’s ever been and the contact is harder (90.5 mph), yet he’s just trying to sinker his way through. The 4.31 ERA is still below all of his estimators. For just $6.4K on DraftKings though, he’s not the worst pairing with a high priced arm. The Cincinnati lineup projects six batters with at least a 24.5 K% vs RHP since 2019 and Marquez costs just $5.6K on DraftKings.

That leaves us with Pederson and Musgrove. The latter is potentially the top value on the board for less than $9K, but it’s no secret. Musgrove has allowed 10 runs (three HRs) over his last 10 innings, but still has a 30.3 K-BB% with a very average contact profile and almost half of that contact (48.3%) on the ground. Estimators including elements of his contact profile, like FIP and xERA are a bit above his 3.00 ERA, while the remainder are below. The Cardinals have an 86 wRC+ vs RHP and four of eight projected batters exceed a 28 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Peterson may be the most interesting pitcher on the board. A likely regression candidate after a .233 BABIP last season, his ERA has increased over two runs. However, his strikeout rate has increased over nine points (28.6%, 12.1 SwStr%), along with a 10 point increase in his ground ball rate (54.5%), but five of his seven Barrels (10.4%) have left the yard, which represents one-third of his fly balls, as his BABIP has risen 90 points. He’s stranded just 61.3% of runners. Better pitcher, worse results. Peterson costs just $6.6K on FanDuel, but isn’t likely to give you six innings. He’s less than $1K more where a partnership with Musgrove could be interesting.

Well Balanced Top of the Slate Pitching

Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw each reach the $10K price point on both sites tonight and legitimate arguments can be made for all three, which may help balance out ownership. Glasnow is the most expensive of the three on DraftKings, but least on FanDuel. He has allowed multiple HRs in three of his last four starts, which have been evenly distributed and the Mets have power from both sides of the plate. He’s also walked four in three of his last five to push the walk rate to exactly 10%. The only real difference from last season at this point is an overall HR/FB reduction of nearly 10 points, which is a massive deal when you have a 39.5 K% (16.8 Swstr%). While the Mets’ lineup is missing a few key bats right now, they don’t strike out a ton. Glasnow is working deeper into games this year, averaging 24 batters per start.

Scherzer has gained some velocity last two times out and has been dominant in those starts. He’s struck out 23 of 56 batters with one walk and two runs allowed (both HRs) over 16.1 innings. Even the ground ball rate has been above 30% in each of his last three starts, though still just 28% on the year. Eight of 10 Barrels (9.8%) have left the yard, which drives his FIP (3.29) well above his xERA (2.68). The Diamondbacks are a below average lineup vs RHP, but again, without a ton of strikeouts. One inconspicuous factor that may be in his favor is that the roof is scheduled to be open in Arizona tonight and Statcast’s new Park Factors suggest the run environment actually declines in this situation in recent years. Scherzer is, by far, the most expensive FanDuel pitcher, but also maybe your best Quality Start bet.

Kershaw pitched his last game on just three days rest after being knocked out of his previous start after just nine batters at Wrigley. This limited him to just 71 pitches against the Angels, where he bounced back, striking out five of 17 without allowing a run. Over the last month, he’s up to a 30 K% and 17.2 SwStr% as his velocity has actually dropped slightly. That’s because he’s throwing his fastball a career low 35.3% this year. Nearly half his contact has been on the ground (48.7%) with an 88 mph EV that now profiles as better than league average. The result has been 4.9% Barrels/BBE. His ERA is a perfect match to his xERA at 2.62. Other non-FIP estimators are a bit above three. The Marlins do have some competent RH bats in the projected lineup, but also probably the most strikeouts of the opposing teams here. Six of eight are above a 22.5 K% vs LHP since 2019. The cheapest of the three on either site (Glasnow on FanDuel, Kershaw on DraftKings) may be your best values among the expensive arms, but it’s difficult to make an argument for or against any relative to the others with much certainty tonight.

You're Going to Stack This Team and You're Going to Like It

A lot of things that appear on this slate are fairly obvious when they appear on this one or any other. The Astros murder LHP (117 wRC+) at home (126 wRC+) and despite a sizeable strikeout rate increase (36.4 K%, 14.9 SwStr%), Andrew Heaney still allows too much hard contact in the air (12.1% Barrels/BBE) and the Astros don’t strike out much. In the same game, Mike Trout (193 wRC+, .384 ISO vs RHP since 2019) faces a same-handed pitcher with a reverse split (RHBs .348 wOBA, .354 xwOBA). Attack marginal RHPs facing the Dodgers (LHBs .370 wOBA, .413 xwOBA vs Justin Dunn career). Attack the Detroit bullpen. This paragraphs covers four of the top five implied run lines on the board. Others include the Yankees being over-valued against most pitchers these days, the Red Sox facing a 27 year-old rookie at Fenway and the Diamondbacks facing a Miami bullpen that’s been pretty good in a park that Statcast Park Factors believe declines in run value when the roof is open, as the Diamondbacks’ website says it is tonight.

However, there aren’t very many usable pitchers on the bottom half of the board tonight. We’re going to need some value bats. The Brewers have a pretty disturbing 74 wRC+ vs RHP this year, yet find themselves closer to the top than the bottom of the board at 4.25 implied runs tonight. It might not be comfortable. Just three of eight batters in the projected lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and just three exceed a 100 wRC+ overall in the last 30 days, but none of them are above $3.6K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. You’re going to stack the Brewers tonight and you’re going to like it. John Gant’s velocity is down nearly two mph from when he last regularly started in 2018 and through six efforts this year, he’s walked just one fewer than he’s struck out (0.7 K-BB%). Half of his contact has been on the ground (50%), but with a 91.3 mph EV. Just one of his six Barrels has left the yard. His SIERA is nearly four runs above his 2.15 ERA and the 5.40 xERA is not much better. The walks and ground balls at a high velocity set up a situation where a stack works best against a pitcher like Gant. The bases should be crowded often tonight. Kolten Wong (132 wRC+ last 30 days) and Dan Vogelbach (117 wRC+,. 239 ISO vs RHP since 2019) will probably be key bats here, as Gant has a fairly sizeable split since 2019 (LHBs .328 wOBA, .376 xwOBA – RHBs .260 wOBA, .270 xwOBA).

Slugging Righty Claims Ownership of Tonight's Opponent

A lot of times, BvP stats are small sample size noise and Dallas Keuchel has actually been effective against most of the Twins he’s faced more than 15 times. Josh Donaldson (32 PAs), Miguel Sano (18 PAs) and Andrelton Simmons (15 PAs) are all below a .240 xwOBA against him with Donaldson having the only two extra-base hits against him. However, Keuchel is among the long list of southpaws that belong to Nelson Cruz (208 wRC+, .403 ISO vs LHP since 2019). In 58 individual matchups between the two, Cruz has homered five times and since 2015 (the Statcast era), he has a 92.2 mph EV and .378 xwOBA when these two meet. Considering how Cruz demolishes lefties, these numbers may actually represent a downgrade from his norm, but Keuchel nearly has a higher Barrels/BBE rate (8.1%) than strikeout rate (10.9%) this year. He still keeps the ball on the ground 59% of the time, but the odds of Cruz making hard contact tonight are considerably high. Kyle Garlick (135 wRC+, .299 ISO vs LHP since 2019) may be the value play to add here, as he costs just $3K on DK ($2.8K on FD). The Twins are actually near the bottom of the board at just 3.49 implied runs.

One Bullpen You Didn't Expect To Be So Bad

If you take the ERA, SIERA, xFIP and FIP for every bullpen over the last 30 days and add them up, then divide by four, we see a season high five bullpens exceeding five today. The Reds are off the board and you aren’t going to attack Zac Gallen with poor Miami bats. The Royals (5.01) and Tigers (5.65) are playing in Detroit. The home team is facing one of the highest priced pitchers on the board and has been terrible vs LHP. Casey Mize has kept the ball on the ground, but his strikeout rate has dropped to 16.3%. This is great news! Load up on Kansas City bats. The problem with that is that Mize has a massive split (RHBs .286 wOBA, LHBs .418 wOBA in his short career) and except for Andrew Benintendi (100 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Carlos Santana (120 wRC+, .206 ISO), the rest of the competent bats in the lineup are all right-handed. At least Benintendi and Santana are two of the three batters projected who own a wRC+ above 100 over the last 30 days for the Royals. Additionally, Statcast brings RHBs up to a .340 xwOBA against Mize, while holding LHBs above .400, so Sal Perez (163 wRC+, .280 ISO) is certainly still in play here.

The surprising bullpen here is the Twins (5.20). Weather Edge tells us that conditions might be an issue here, but that could change and it may be the only issue for the White Sox. J.A. Happ is flying well below his estimators due to a .171 BABIP, 85.6 LOB% and 5 HR/FB. He’s struck out just 16 of 109 batters (6.8 SwStr%) with a 38.5 GB% and 90.7 mph EV. He’s been lucky that just two of eight Barrels (9.5%) have left the yard. Despite being down a couple of key RH bats, the projected lineup for the White Sox includes just two batters below a 100 wRC+ vs LHP since 2019 and just two below a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal and Jose Abreu all exceed a 140 wRC+ and .240 ISO against southpaws since 2019. The White Sox are expected to stack the lineup entirely with RHBs and Happ has a .326 wOBA (.330 xwOBA) against batters from that side over the same time span. The White Sox are right in the middle of the board at four implied runs. Cold weather may slow them down, but Minnesota pitching shouldn’t.

Unexpectedly Poor Performance vs LHP

The top spot on the board belongs to Danny Duffy. The Tigers are just awful vs LHP, but you’re going to have to pay an unusually heavy price for the lefty. Another lefty, who’s somewhat cheaper on either site in possibly the second highest upside spot on the board is Julio Urias. The breakout was derailed when the Angels took him deep twice and pushed five runs across the plate in his last start, while he struck out only four of 23 batters (no walks). That’s dropped his strikeout rate down to 27.2% (13.7 SwStr%) and was only the second time in seven starts that Urias did not record sixth inning outs. The peripherals are fantastic and the exit velocity just 86.4 mph (0.5 mph above his career rate) with a league average amount of contact on the ground (42.5%). Yet, 11 of his batted balls have been Barrels (9.6%) with six leaving the yard. ERA and non- DRA estimators are in the low threes. The Mariners do have some RH power, but five of eight projected batters have at least a 26 K% vs LHP since 2019.

There are a couple of additional spots we can reasonably expect to be of at least moderately high upside. One is a bit of surprise, but the other certainly is not. The Marlins have an 87 wrC+, 27 K% and 10.9 HR/FB vs RHP. Zac Gallen’s 27.8 K% is right around his career mark. The 12.2 BB% is a new concern, but probably not here. With otherwise average contact managerial numbers this year, the 3.8 HR/FB is an outlier and pushes some non-FIP estimators above four, though it’s just five starts. Gallen may be one of the top values on FanDuel for $8.2K.

The velocity was down slightly, but the peripherals were fine for Hyun-Jin Ryu in his return from the IL against an Oakland lineup that’s tough on lefties. His strikeout rate is at a league average 24.2%, but with a 12.9 SwStr% that suggests he can challenge last year’s 26.2% mark. As usual, he walks nearly nobody (3.0%) and has generated about half his contact on the ground (48.4%) at a low exit velocity (86.7 mph). All non-DRA estimators are 3.30 or lower. The Braves should be a great offense against LHP, but they aren’t and they weren’t last year either. In fact, they have just a 59 wRC+ with a 21.9 K-BB% against southpaws this year. Plate IQ tells that five of eight batters projected for the Atlanta tonight exceed a 25 K% vs LHP since 2019 with just one below 22.9%. Ryu is now down below $8K on either site as well.

Lefty Finds Himself in New Territory in Great Spot

FanDuel has three pitchers exceeding the $10K price point, while DraftKings has none. In addition, Zack Wheeler is around $9.5K on either site. The easiest answer to every question is Gerrit Cole tonight. He has a 40.2 K%, 14.9 SwStr% and just a single estimator (DRA) above 2.10. The Rays are one of the highest upside matchups on the board. Five of nine projected batters exceed a 29 K% vs RHP since 2019. Cole also gets a park boost and a potentially favorable umpire. Cole is your top pitcher and everybody knows it.

Brandon Woodruff is your second most expensive pitcher and it’s fair enough. He has a 25.5 K-BB% just above his 24.9% mark last year after a season high 11 Ks against the Phillies last time out. He’s allowed just two HRs and three Barrels (3.2%), but that seems somewhat unsustainable with merely league average ground ball and exit velocity rates. He still has just a single estimators above three (3.16 DRA). The Cardinals have an 88 wRC+ vs RHP and offer three bats in the projected lineup above a 27 K% vs RHP since 2019 with two more above 23%. Woodruff is fine, but could become a strong leverage play depending on ownership projections, which update later this afternoon.

Danny Duffy is in rare territory, but has struck out 28% of the batters he’s faced with a 14.1 SwStr% this year and he’s done this behind a mile and a half per hour increase in velocity. His walk rate has improved a bit too (7%), but even with his batted ball (31.2 GB%) and contact profiles (89.2 mph EV) remaining similar, he’s improved most of his estimators to around three and half (a 4.71 DRA again dissents). The 88.1 LOB% and 4.9 HR/FB supporting his 1.26 ERA are unsustainable of course. While Duffy is the least accomplished of our high priced group, the Tigers have a 39 wRC+, 35.3 K% and 3.5 HR/FB vs LHP this year. Dare it be said, but Duffy may be a decent value, even at his accelerated price tag today.

Wheeler is throwing more sliders this year and the result is a 10 point drop in his ground ball rate to 45.7%, which is around his career rate, but also an increase in strikeouts above league average (26.8%, 12.1 SwStr%). His normally exceptional contact management continues (86.7 mph EV) with four of six Barrels (6%) leaving the yard. His worst estimators (again DRA) don’t take that into consideration and are still only three and a half. The Nationals are probably the least strikeout prone offense here with just three in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019 and only one more above 20%, but they also have just an 83 wRC+. The thing that Wheeler does have over the higher priced pitchers today is his ability to work deep into games. He’s averaging nearly three full times through the order and almost seven innings per start this season. Potentially the lowest owned of the four, Wheeler is a fine leverage play and decent value here.

Statcast Suggests These Two Pitchers Are Still Prone to Contact Issues

The Marlins and Brewers are not what most people who have followed baseball this year would confuse for good offenses. However, slap a left-hander on the mound and the Brewers have cranked out a 119 wRC+, the Marlins a 102 wRC+. But they’re also facing quality pitchers in Kwang-hyun Kim and Madison Bumgarner. In each case though, Statcast suggests some issues with both hard contact and RHBs that may not be immediately apparent. In Kim’s case, his 2019 profile was loaded with numbers that were expected to heavily regress, including a .217 BABIP and 86.6 LOB%. The BABIP is up to .346 in 2021, but the strand rate is still at 80% and just a single one of seven Barrels (13.2%) have left the yard through four starts! All of his non-FIP estimators are above his 3.06 ERA with the 5.03 xERA showing the potential of the contact profile. In fact, RHBs have a .331 xwOBA against him since last year, which lifts his actual mark a staggering 68 points. The Brewers have just a 3.66 implied run line, but five of eight batters in the projected lineup exceed a 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Tyrone Taylor (162 wRC+, .229 ISO vs LHP) won’t sustain this kind of success over the long haul, but might be the value play of the day on DraftKings where he still costs the minimum.

Bumgarner certainly has pitched better. He’s allowed three runs over his last 23 innings and just eight hits! This includes a terrific 28.7 K-BB% with just two walks. The velocity is somewhere in between where it was last year and in his heyday. He’s still allowing a 90.1 mph EV with a 32 GB% over this span, but has been a bit fortunate that two of five Barrels (9.8%) have left the yard. Great news if he can sustain those peripherals, though maybe not and he still has a 3.51 xFIP over this span. RHBs have a .330 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against him since 2019. Sure that includes his first year in Arizona, but also much more of his last year in San Francisco. The park probably saved a now hard contact prone pitcher from further mishap. The projected lineup for the Marlins includes six batters above a 100 wRC+ and .170 ISO vs LHP since 2019, several of them costing near the minimum on FanDuel.

Is This the Beginning of a Breakout?

Two starts ago, Dylan Cease three hit the Tigers without a walk for seven innings with nine strikeouts. Nobody made a big deal about it because it was the Tigers. Last time out, he shut out the Reds over six innings on one hit (three walks) with 11 strikeouts in Cincinnati. Slightly more impressive. He has a 15.9 SwStr% over these two efforts, but the biggest change may be strike one. His F-Strike has nearly doubled to 63% over these two starts, which has a byproduct of more swing and misses outside the zone later in the count. In fact, his overall Zone rate hasn’t increased at all. Estimators are higher than his 2.37 ERA due to a 7.1 HR/FB and 84.8 LOB%, but all are now below four. The Twins are not usually an offense you want to roster pitchers against because even without Byron Buxton, they still include five batters above a .260 ISO vs RHP since 2019 in their projected lineup. However, it also includes four batters below a 90 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall and three batters above a 30 K% vs RHP since 2019. Not many should be on Dylan Cease tonight, but he costs just $7K on DraftKings.

One offense pitchers love to roster pitchers against is the Baltimore Orioles, especially against RHP (81 wRC+). Marcus Stroman is generally considered a contact prone, ground ball pitcher and for most of April that’s exactly what he was. However, he’s now struck out 14 of his last 44 batters with a 15.4 SwStr%. His new split seems to be improved from his former changeup, as he’s now throwing three non-sinker pitches at least nine percent of the time with a greater than 30% whiff rate on swings. If he can combine even a league average strikeout rate with his current 55 GB%, he’s more than a middle of the rotation pitcher. A higher price tag (above $8K on FD, $9K on DK) with the perception that he doesn’t miss many bats might have most players bypassing him even against the Orioles tonight.

RHBs in Strong Spot No Matter Who Pitches

The Braves haven’t officially named a starter as of yet, but whether it’s Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright or even Max Fried (who isn’t expected to pitch until tomorrow), this isn’t a bad spot for the Toronto lineup. Each of the three has allowed at least a .330 wOBA to RHBs since 2019. Meanwhile, this lineup is loaded with RH power that hits RH pitching fairly well, led by Bo Bichette (125 wRC+, .233 ISO since 2019), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (124 wRC+, .178 ISO), Marcus Semien (123 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (107 wRC+, .235 ISO). All four also exceed a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. The Atlanta bullpen is not a thing to be concerned about either with a 5.17 ERA and 4.51 FIP over the last 30 days. Their current 4.5 implied run line ties the Blue Jays with the team they’re facing four the fourth highest number on the board. While Robbie Ray hasn’t walked a batter in three starts, he’s still generating tons of hard contact. There’s some justification to exposure to both sides of this matchup, but Ronald Acuna (136 wRC+, .261 ISO vs LHP) may be the top non-Coors bat on the board tonight.

Depleted Bullpen Backs a Pitcher With No Control

If you’re looking to attack weak bullpens, your game is in Detroit tonight. The Tigers have the worst bullpen in baseball, which includes a 6.48 ERA and 5.44 FIP over the last 30 days, and the Royals aren’t far behind (5.31, 4.75). Nobody would blame you if you want no part of the Detroit offense though (88 wRC+ vs RHP) and while the Royals haven’t been going much better, they at least supply some right-handed power, including Salvador Perez (.214 ISO vs LHP since 2019) and Carlos Santana (.216 ISO) against Matt Boyd (RHBs .339 wOBA since 2019), who has been pitching well with the new de-juiced ball, but his 2.1 HR/FB is completely unsustainable. Perez and Santana are two of only three Royals in the projected lineup above a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days and also hit RHP well enough that they lose nothing when Boyd exits and the awful relieving arrives.

A likely more under the radar spot to look at is in Houston where the Angels’ bullpen exceeded expectations last night and have Shohei Ohtani on the mound tonight. However, not only was it a bullpen game for the Angels, but Raisel Iglesias and Mike Mayers have now both pitched in three straight games, while Tony Watson has gone back to back as well. The bullpen as a whole still has a 5.14 ERA and 4.51 FIP over the last 30 days. Ohtani has struck out 30 of 84 batters with a 13.3 SwStr%, but has also walked 19. That’s generally going to run a pitch count up quite quickly. He does have a 59.4 GB% that’s allowed him to survive so far, but he has a 90.6 mph EV too. A 2.41 ERA is less than half his SIERA. A .188 BABIP is completely unsustainable. In fact, LHBs have a .327 wOBA and .364 xwOBA against him since 2019. All the Michael Brantley (150 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2019), Yordan Alvarez (180 wRC+, .335 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (137 wRC+, .269 ISO) tonight.

Are the Dodgers & Braves High Upside Pitching Spots?

Some of the higher upside spots (as determined by opposition strikeout rates) are either off the main slate (Rangers, Pirates) or in some spots you might not normally expect tonight. Brady Singer is in Detroit (six of nine projected batters above a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019). Dinelson Lamet is at Coors, but has been used more like an Opener in his two starts and experienced a large velocity drop last time out. He’s unusable tonight. Jordan Montgomery is in Tampa Bay (six of nine projected batters above a 26 K% vs LHP since 2019). The expected Yankee lineup includes five batters above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019, but Luis Patino has been used much like an Opener or multi-inning reliever as well. The projected Atlanta lineup includes just one batter below a 23 K% vs LHP since 2019, but Robbie Ray. Yusei Kikuchi faces the Dodgers, but why is he even on this list.

Brady Singer and Jordan Montgomery profile as middle to back of the rotation arms, but they may be who players would gravitate to among this group. The former has a 50 GB% and 23.6 K%, but just an 8.9 SwStr% and has struggled with five walks to just four strikeouts over his last two starts. This should be a get right spot for him and at just $5.7K on DraftKings, the perfect pairing for a higher priced arm. Montgomery may not be the flashiest pitcher in a rotation, but has all the makings of a quality arm. His 11.5 SwStr% is league average, his 45.7 GB% a bit above. He exhibits good control (6.1%) and has a near average exit velocity (90 mph) and Barrels/BBE (8.5%). His 4.77 DRA is higher than his 4.41 ERA, but all other estimators are below, including a 3.85 ERA. The 16.1 HR/FB is a bit high, but he gets a park upgrade tonight. He’s a better value on FanDuel for just $6.4K though.

Robbie Ray has come to do four things: chew bubble gum, miss bats, walk batters and allow lots of loud contact…except he’s not doing one of those things anymore and it has nothing to do with bubble gum. Ray has struck out 23 of his last 72 batters (17.3 SwStr%) without a walk. Again…without a walk! He’s still allowed five HRs on seven Barrels (14.3% – 93.5 mph EV) over that span, but two out of three ain’t bad. It’s been increased fastball usage (above 60% in each start) at increased velocity (95+ mph) that’s done the trick. Kikuchi has had a tough run of lefty-smashing offenses, but has maintained last year’s gained velocity and is generating a 12.9 SwStr% with a 52.9 GB%. The Dodgers may actually have the lowest wRC+ of any team he’s faced vs LHP and beyond the first three, there are a lot of strikeouts in this projected lineup according to Plate IQ. His 4.30 ERA is mostly in line with, but actually above all non-FIP estimators, which could drop as well against lesser competition. Both pitchers sitting in the $8K range on either site probably aren’t on the radar of most (if any) daily fantasy players tonight, but either may be a GPP sleeper.

High Cost Pitcher in One of the Highest Upside Spots

The highest priced pitcher on either site is John Means. At least on the main slate, as Shane Bieber is pitching a little earlier today. Of course, this is due to his no hitter last time out…or is it? Taking a look at Means’s game log, you’ll notice that he’s allowed more than three hits just twice this year (1.58 BABIP). Obviously, that’s not sustainable, but on top of that, he’s struck out at least nine in three of his last four and has a 16.3 SwStr% over the last 30 days. He’s allowed 21 hits and 11 Barrels (10.4%) with five HRs, despite an 85.5 mph EV. This is all insanity. He’s thrown his four-seamer 51% of the time and it’s not a very good pitch. Four of his five HRs have come off of it and it has a .363 xwOBA. However, no other pitch exceeds a .200 xwOBA, while both his changeup (41.5 Whiff%) and slider (55.6 Whiff%) have been completely dominant. The BABIP and 100% strand rate scream regression, but the underlying skills seem to have taken off as well. Facing the Mets isn’t ideal. However, there are four batters above a 24 K% vs LHP in the projected lineup and they are missing a big RH bat in J.D. Davis. Means did throw 113 pitches last time out, but got an extra day, so that shouldn’t affect him much, but this price tag may be too high. However, should ownership projections show some popular skepticism, the skills have increased to the point where he might be a strong leverage play.

Walker Buehler is a few hundred cheaper on either site. He has somewhat conquered issues with his fastball (lower velocity, increased xwOBA) by throwing it a bit less in recent starts (above 70% each of first two starts, below 60% in each of last four). As a result, he’s struck out 27 of his last 75 with a 14.2 SwStr%. His 3.13 ERA is in line with most estimators until you come to the contact profile. He’s allowed 12.6% Barrels/BBE, which is up to 15.2% over these last three starts, but felt a bit less due to the increased strikeouts. Just five of his 13 Barrels have left the yard, driving his xERA up to 3.93. Most of the hard contact has come on the fastball (seven of 12 extra-base hits). Buehler also has the pleasure of one of the highest upside spots on the board in one of the most negative run environments. Four of eight Mariners in the projected lineup exceed a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019 with the middle of the lineup (four through six) all below a .150 ISO over that span. The Mariners also lose the DH in an NL park. Buehler is likely your top overall arm tonight, but expect players to gravitate that way. Paying down in GPPs is a viable option.

Two of Tonight's Top Pitchers in Somewhat Marginal Spots

Since recording just a single out on Opening Day, as he walked three of eight Royals with a single strikeout, Kyle Gibson has allowed just six runs over six starts. His first two home runs were allowed in his last start, in which he still completed eight innings with eight strikeouts in Minnesota. The .248 BABIP and 5.9 HR/FB are both a bit unsustainable and at this point, we’d probably just further frustrate ourselves by expecting his 13.3 SwStr% to result in a much higher strikeout rate (21.3%) because he has just a career 1.75 K/SwStr. This year’s mark is a career high mark so far, so perhaps he reaches league average. He continues to generate ground balls (52.2%), which limits Barrels (5.2%). His SIERA and xFIP are around four. The Giants have a 102 wRC+ and 15.8 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a staggering 28 K%. Mike Yastrzemski’s expected return to the lineup should give them a boost, if healthy. He has a 128 wRC+ and .254 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Mike Tauchman (111 wRC+, .195 ISO) would be a top value should he find the leadoff spot again. Wilmer Flores is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .319 and .345 wOBA and xwOBA against Gibson since 2019, but he does seem to be pitching at a slightly higher level this year. While nobody is averaging six full innings per start on the slate tonight, Gibson comes closest, but is the only pitcher to exceed $9K on FD ($9.5K). He may be a better value on DraftKings ($8.6K).

Alex Wood is flashing upside from 2017, when he ran up a career high 3.1 fWAR for the Dodgers. He’s struck out 25.6% with a 13.1 SwStr% with the disclaimer being that he’s had two starts against the Marlins and two against the Rockies. In addition, 16 of his 22 strikeouts have come in the home starts. It’s good news that he’s in another perceived high upside matchup against the Rangers at home. Or is it? He’s walked just 5.8% of batters faced and with 63.2% of his contact on the ground, he’s allowed just two Barrels (3.4%) so far. The Rangers have a 98 wRC+ and 18.8 HR/FB vs LHP this year, which is probably not you would expect. In fact, Nick Solak, Adolis Garcia, Joey Gallo and Charlie Culberson all exceed a 130 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs LHP since 2019. Garcia still costs just $3.2K on DraftKings. Only two batters in the projected lineup are below a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Texas lineup is expected to be balanced and batters from either side of the plate are between a .333 to .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Wood since 2019. However, the projected middle of the lineup for Texas (Nate Lowe, Garcia and Gallo) all exceed a 28 K% vs LHP since 2019. Wood is the highest priced pitcher at $9.8K on DraftKings tonight, so he’s going to need another peak performance at home tonight. He’s thrown 97 pitches and completed six innings in each of those home starts and does have the best defense on the board (+8 Runs Prevented via Statcast) behind him.