DFS Alerts

Plenty of value and upside below $10K tonight

High priced arms aren’t the only ones worthy of consideration tonight. In fact, if playing on DraftKings, you’re going to need some of these lower priced guys. Marco Gonzales (21.6 K%, 3.69 SIERA, .333 xwOBA) has completed six innings in 13 of 18 starts, including most recently against tonight’s opponent, the Angels (6 IP – 1 ER – 7 K). He’s increased his strikeout rate to 24.2% with a 12.4 SwStr% over the last month and is pitching in a favorable park for less than $8K tonight. Sure, the Angels are predominantly right-handed with a 19.9 K% vs LHP, but with just a 90 wRC+. Gonzales has faced them three times this season, striking out exactly seven in each start. Luke Weaver (21.2 K%, 4.26 SIERA, .335 xwOBA) has had his struggles, but threw eight innings of two hit ball in San Francisco last time out and has an even better matchup against the White Sox tonight (19.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 26.1 K-BB% last seven days). He costs $6.6K on FanDuel. Kenta Maeda (28.7 K%, 3.53 SIERA, .297 xwOBA) has struck out nine in three straight starts, finishing seven innings twice. He’s in a top spot, if not the top spot in San Diego against the Padres (81 wRC+, 25.9 K% vs RHP). Vince Velasquez (28.5 K%, 3.57 SEIRA, .294 xwOBA) missed his last start, but spent the minimum time on the DL and cost just over $8K against the Mets (56 wRC+, 27.1 K%, 6.6 HR/FB), who have DLed nearly every veteran bat in the organization. If looking for a secondary pitcher in the $5K range, Dan Straily is high risk, but misses bats at around a league average rate and might find some upside against the Brewers (25.1 K% vs RHP). Sam Gaviglio has a 23.2, 3.83 SIERA and .315 xwOBA. The Braves don’t strike out much (20.3% vs RHP), but have just a 95 wRC+ and 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP as well.

A pitching rich slate with many high priced arms

Despite six teams over 5.1 implied runs tonight, it’s a pitching rich 11 game slate with 14 teams below 4.4 implied runs. It’s almost easier to list the few pitchers that are difficult to make a reasonable argument for. There are three pitchers above the $10K mark on both sites and three additional “tweeners”, above $10K on one site or the other, including Carlos Carrasco, the rare high priced pitcher who costs much more on FanDuel. Freddy Peralta throws a 92 mph fastball nearly 80% of the time, but gets enough extension to make it look 1.5 mph faster, the largest positive Effective Velocity gap on the board. His 36.2 K% is second best on the board, though he’s only struck out more than seven twice in six starts. He’s got the Marlins (90 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB% vs RHP) in Miami tonight and costs just $1.6K less on FanDuel ($8.7K). Jacob deGrom (31.2 K%, 2.88 SIERA, .262 xwOBA) is the second most expensive pitcher on the board and actually $100 less on DraftKings as well. After two straight starts with just six innings and three runs, deGrom bounced back with eight innings of one run ball and eight strikeouts last time out. The Phillies have a split high 26.1 K% vs RHP this year. Chris Sale (36.8 K%, 2.42 SIERA, .246 xwOBA) is the top pitcher on the board in every key stat and the most expensive. He has at least nine strikeouts in six straight starts. The Rangers have just a 22.7 K% with a 99 wRC+ against LHP. The higher price along with the massive park difference between Fenway and Citi Field probably makes deGrom the better value. Lance McCullers (27.1 K%, 3.42 SIERA, .302 xwOBA) pitches in the most negative run environment on the board, but is facing the most difficult offense (A’s 118 wRC+ on the road, 108 wRC+ vs RHP). His 55.8 GB% is best on the board. He’s struck out 37 of his last 100 batters with a 60% ground ball rate over his last four starts. Mike Foltynewicz (29.4 K%, 3.60 SIERA, .300 xwOBA) still has an ERA well below his estimators (.256 BABIP, 81.6 LOB%, 9.9 HR/FB) and can not fully support his strikeout rate with just a 10.1 SwStr%. However, over the last month, he has 32.1 K% with a 12.1 SwStr% and is in a slightly favorable matchup (Blue Jays 99 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP) for $9K on FanDuel. Carlos Carrasco costs $800 less on DraftKings ($9.5K). He allowed three runs in 5.1 innings against a tough Oakland lineup in his return from the DL, but did strike out seven of 22 batters. The matchup is not much easier at home tonight against a Cincinnati offense with an 11.5 K-BB% vs RHP and some left-handed power in a positive run environment.

Sticking With The Savings

I’ll likely have a couple Cardinals bats in most of my lineups tonight against the still shaky Carlos Rodon and this beatable White Sox bullpen. On FanDuel, all the St. Louis bats are cheap, while on DK I lean towards the multi-position eligibility of Jedd Gyorko along with Marcell Ozuna as the affordable options. Gyorko leads the team with a .296 ISO against lefties leads the team and a low 14.5% strikeout rate and 48% hard hits.

Too Cheap Again

The Cardinals broke the slate last night at low prices, and while the matchup is nowhere near as good tonight, this is still a team to look at for some much needed savings. Carlos Rodon is still working his way back from injury, striking out just 16.5% of right-handed batters with sketchy control. And we’re likely to see more of the White Sox bullpen where runs can be had all night long. Ozuna hasn’t seen the results against lefties yet this season, but a 48% hard hit rate and below average strikeouts say that it will be coming. Hitting in the middle of this lineup at this low salary on DK/FDRFT is an easy fit.

Twins face a bullpen with a 0.5 K-BB% over the last 30 days

The Twins are the top projected offense on the afternoon slate. Only one team (Nationals) is within a run of their 5.56 implied run line when they face the Kansas City bullpen this afternoon. Burch Smith will start for the first time since 2013. His last outing consisted of four innings and 50 pitches, both season highs. If the Royals are aggressive, perhaps they push him past 60, but that could still mean just three innings in this spot or as many as five. The less the Royals have to employ their bullpen, the better for them, as this unit has a 4.90 FIP and 0.5 K-BB% over the last 30 days. Eddie Rosario (152 wRC+, .296 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (135 wRC+, .297 ISO) have been the big bats against RHP over the last calendar year, but nearly the entire lineup has some value here. Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .387 xwOBA, .095 ISO) costs less than $4K on DK and is $1K less on FD. Jorge Polanco (142 wRC+, .220 ISO) is $100 cheaper than Mauer on DK. Even Jake Cave (105 wRC+, ..394 xwOBA, .174 ISO) has been hitting the ball hard.

Trevor Williams is a contact manager who hasn't been able to prevent runs

The Nationals are one of two clear top offenses on the afternoon slate. At 4.88 implied runs, only one team is higher and the next best projected run line is over a half run lower. Trevor Williams is a contact manager (85.6 mph aEV), but hasn’t been doing enough of that to prevent runs (at least three in 10 of last 12 starts) and did not strike out a single batter in his last start (Phillies). While LHBs have a wOBA (.320) 19 points above RHBs since last season, xwOBA reverses that and puts RHBs (.340) 22 points above LHBs, likely due to the discrepancy in hard contact (LHBs 24.9%, RHBs 33.8%). He has a league average ground ball rate either way. The Nationals make it easy. The first five batters in the order all exceed a 125 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year with only leadoff man, Adam Eaton (149 wRC+, .118 ISO) below a .214 ISO. Each of the first four batters exceed a .375 xwOBA against RHP over the last calendar year.

Some Necessary Value

I don’t love picking on Carlos Rodon, but he hasn’t been completely sharp since returning from injury, and we don’t have a lot of value out there tonight. The Cardinals still check in as affordable options, with guys like Marcell Ozuna carrying mega cheap price tags, and Jedd Gyorko should be in there with his power upside against left-handed pitching. We also get the benefit of an underwhelming and tired White Sox bullpen after the Cardinals scored 14 runs on Tuesday. There’s certainly potential here, and you can fit a Cardinals stack in a lineup with the likes of Chris Sale this evening.

Afternoon pitching is tough, but there does appear to be a clear top arm

Although there are four afternoon games, both FanDuel and DraftKings are only including the first three on the afternoon slate. Pitching choices run from sub-optimal to unusable to not even really known. Both the Royals (Burch Smith) and Rays (Hunter Wood) will be working entirely out of the bullpen today. Among the remaining choices, Trevor Williams (17.3 K%, 4.75 SIERA, .344 xwOBA) will face a Washington lineup with a 4.88 implied run line. Lance Lynn (21.5 K%, 4.66 SIERA, .338 xwOBA) employs his 13.2 BB% in a great run prevention spot (Royals 81 wRC+, 7.9 HR/FB vs RHP) against a team that doesn’t accept many free passes (6.7% vs RHP), but one that doesn’t strike out either (19.6% vs RHP). The remaining options are Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann. Gonzalez has an 8.14 ERA and 6.66 FIP over his last six starts with a -0.8 K-BB% and will be facing another somewhat contact prone team (Pirates 21.2 K% vs LHP). He hasn’t struck out more batters than he’s walked in three starts and hasn’t struck out more than four in a start since his first of June. Jordan ZImmermann is your top pitcher for Wednesday afternoon. He struck out 11 Rangers in eight innings last time out and is now up to a 24.8 K% for the season. He’s thrown 20 innings, allowing just two runs over his last three starts and is down to a .302 xwOBA and 3.64 SIERA for the season. The Rays have just a 22.8 K% vs RHP, but that’s actually the highest split on the board this afternoon. Months ago, nobody thought they’d be happy to pay $9.5K for Jordan Zimmermann right before the All-Star break, but here we are.

It's Coors. Expect Runs.

If you are looking for a top stack out of the likely popular group of Boston and Coors Field tonight, the Rockies are my favorite selection. Coors Field was a bit of a letdown on Tuesday, so we can only hope that keeps ownership in check to some degree (it probably won’t). Still, it’s hard to ignore the Rockies against a non-dominant pitcher in Shelby Miller who has only made a few starts since coming off the disabled list. The Rockies have the highest implied team total on the board tonight at over six runs, and I would expect them to do some damage this evening. If you’re saving on the mound, jam in your high dollar Rockies stacks with confidence.

Too Cheap Again

It’s not as much of a can’t miss spot as last night when the Cardinals were the easy and obvious offense, but they are still way too cheap on FanDuel, and an easy way to get some high upside bats while allowing yourself to spend up at pitcher. Carlos Rodon has talent and has been limiting hard contact to righties in his six starts since coming off the DL, but we’re looking at a guy with sketchy control and just a 16.5% strikeout rate to righties who is facing a team loaded with strong right-handed bats. Plus we’ve got the bad White Sox bullpen behind him to pile on more runs in the late innings. Martinez is just too cheap for a guy with low strikeouts and high walks hitting right in the middle of a strong lineup.

The Next Spot In Line

Outside of Coors Field, the Red Sox against Bartolo Colon are the high total spot of the night. While Colon has been kind of OK recently, a guy throwing an extreme amount of strikes and getting hit hard is not a good recipe for travelling into Fenway Park. I would love to be able to afford the big outfielders up top, but Mitch Moreland is the more affordable way to get in on the Boston offense, especially on FanDuel at just $3,100. Moreland has a .240 ISO with strong plate skills against right-handed pitching with Colon striking out just 13.4% of left-handed batters.

The Overlooked GPP Stack

With the Red Sox facing off against Bartolo Colon and a high total game out in Denver tonight, the Indians will definitely be your high-powered offense that gets over-looked a bit, as they have to face a talented young arm in Tyler Mahle. However, there’s still plenty of potential for this squad, especially since they will check in with low GPP ownership.

For all the positives with Mahle, he has still struggled with one thing: left-handed batters. Lefties have posted a .396 wOBA, a 46% hard contact rate, and a 24% line drive rate against Mahle this year, and Cleveland just happens to have a ton of lefties with pop in Brantley, Lindor, Alonso, Ramirez, etc… They will cost you a pretty penny, but I like the potential leverage here off the other top spots.

Get In Play Here At A Reasonable Price

The trick tonight is finding a way to spend up at pitcher while still getting Coors Field exposure. The Arizona lefties against German Marquez is the way to make that happen. Marquez has wildly huge home/road splits as you might expect from a Colorado pitcher, with a 7.93 ERA at Coors Field this season. Against left-handed batters he has just a 17.3% strikeout rate and loses the ground ball skills he has shown to righties. Descalso is a patient hitter displaying hard hit ability with a .211 ISO and .354 wOBA against RHP. This salary is more than fair for this environment.

A Massive/Risk Reward GPP Arm

I don’t like targeting Dylan Bundy in GPP formats when he is expensive or when he is a popular play. When he is inexpensive and a completely ignored arm, I will bite for some GPP exposure — and that’s what we have tonight. Nobody is going to play Dylan Bundy against the Yankees, and he checks in at one of the cheapest price points he has been at in quite some time.

Yes, the matchup is frightening. However, he has held RHBs to a very respectable .278 wOBA this season, which should help offset the power bats of Stanton and Judge. His 26% strikeout rate is something you will rarely see from a pitcher that’s as cheap as he is. There’s a path to him being a top three point per dollar scorer on the mound here, and he offers some much needed salary relief to pay up for the big bats from Boston and/or Coors Field.

Best Of The Rest

You can make a strong case for almost any of these second tier pitchers tonight. I will be spreading out between the likes of Maeda, Peralta, Foltynewicz, Velasquez, Weaver and Carrasco, but I side with Kenta Maeda first. He has a favorable matchup in San Diego, and has been piling up strikeouts, even with his somewhat limited pitch counts. He has nine stirkeouts in three straight starts and a 28.7% K rate for the season. What little power the Padres have comes from the right side of the plate where Maeda has a huge 33.7% strikeout rate to offset it. If the Padres send up their more contact oriented lefties at the top of the lineup, it just makes for some easy outs. I like him most as an SP2 in cash games and he will be in my tournament mix as well.