DFS Alerts
Altitude Sickness
While I much prefer writing about non-obvious stacks, I’m starting to get a feeling that the the Rockies aren’t going to be the highest owned stack of the night (s/o Angels), largely due to pricing. Jamming in Rockies hitters is more difficult (outside of Valaika) to figure out as you have to sacrifice quite a bit at SP in order to do so. Lucchesi has been solid to start the season for the Padres but the poor fella will have his hands full in this one in Coors. Prior to 2018, Lucchesi hasn’t pitched at a level higher than AA and FanGraphs has him projected as a No. 4 starter. Lucchesi has a bit of a weird delivery so ultimately the more tape that comes out on him, the better prepared batters will be to face his mostly average stuff. As we discussed yesterday, don’t be afraid to throw in a couple left handed batters (Charlie Blackmon, CarGo) into your Rockies stacks to help differentiate.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, Chris Iannetta, Patrick Valaika
Lots of Contact
While looking up how good Patrick Corbin (17.8%) has been at inducing swings and misses I stumbled upon how poor Homer Bailey has been in that category (6.4%). It’s too early in the season to draw any sort of conclusions from such small samples but Homer has been trending downward in this regard since 2014 when he posted a 11.1 SwStr%. It’s pretty basic but if hitters aren’t missing pitches that means a lot of contact is being made – and in the case of hitters against Homer Bailey, not a lot of soft contact. We saw the Phillies put up 20 runs a few days ago and while it’s not realistic to expect similar output, it’s safe to say this is a strong matchup for Philly hitters.
Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez Can't Stop, Won't Stop
I will never stop stacking against Andrew Cashner until he is no longer in the league. I still can’t get over his 2017 season where he somehow lucked his way to a 3.40 ERA while having a walk rate (9.1%) that almost matched his strikeout rate (12.2%). Personal history aside, Cashner is the type of pitcher you want to stack against – a guy who can give up the dong (career double digit HR to flyball ratio) and a guy who can’t control the run game (this matters a little less as Jays don’t have many SB threats). Donaldson highlights the Blue Jays stack and makes for an excellent pivot off the chalky Nolan Arenado.
Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin Opposite Handed Struggles
The story with Aaron Sanchez has always been how he’s been strong against right handed hitters (.256 wOBA) but has struggled against lefties (.319 wOBA). Very early 2018 has been much of the same, making it tough to roster Sanchez when he’s pitching against a team with good left handed bats. Well, that isn’t the Orioles. Chris Davis (who strikes out a ton no matter what hand you throw with) represents the O’s biggest left handed scare as the top of Baltimore’s order is littered with right handed hitters. Sanchez makes for an intriguing pivot off of Aaron Nola in GPPs.
Cheap Ace on the Mound
Aaron Nola’s advanced statistics haven’t been great in his first two starts of the season, but I’m not concerned. I always love targeting pitchers with an above-average strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. This helps limit the damage in two ways — strikeouts are obviously best, but even when that doesn’t happen, ground balls don’t hurt nearly as much as fly balls. Nola draws a favorable matchup against the Reds, who don’t have much firepower in their lineup outside of Joey Votto.
Elite Arm at a Discounted Price
For whatever reason, Stephen Strasburg is about a thousand dollars too cheap on each site across the industry. He doesn’t have the best track record against Freddie Freeman and the Braves, but he’s too talented of a pitcher to fade at this price point. He has an elite strikeout rate (29%) and a tremendous track record at home throughout his career. He is one of the largest favorites on the board and is the preferred SP1 for both cash games and tournaments.
Swing and a Miss
Nobody has rostered Patrick Corbin his first two starts of the season and he’s likely to garner ownership attention at an increased price point on a slate full of strong SP options. He’s been dominant to start the season accumulating a total of 20 strikeouts against the Dodgers and the Rockies. He recorded 19 swings and misses in his start against the Dodgers and has the two starts with the most slider swings and misses (17 + 13) so far to start the year (via Sports Info Solutions). On paper it’s not a great strikeout matchup agains the Giants but when you are posting those types of numbers and inducing that many swings and misses your opponent starts to matter a bit less. Corbin will have the added benefit of throwing in pitcher friendly AT&T.
Clear Under-Pricing
FanDuel has really undershot on the salaries for the Padres bats in Coors Field. I understand not pricing them all the way up with the Rockies bats, but there’s no reason we should be able to get middle of the lineup hitters with the platoon advantage for under $3,000. Tyler Anderson is a fine pitcher, but nothing spectacular against right-handed batters. In 152 career AB against left-handed pitching, Pirela has a .386 wOBA, 145 wRC+ and a .217 ISO. The Coors Field factor alone puts him in play at this salary.
Pile On Here
I’ve got to stick with more Angels in the outfield. Upton is not cheap, but it’s still a significant savings over the top tier bats. We know about Perez and his struggles with right-handed bats. His low strikeouts cancel out Upton’s weakness with contact, but his contact skills are significantly better against left-handed pitching to begin with, posting an average 20.3% K rate last season, while smashing the ball to the tune of a .472 wOBA, 201 wRC+ and .384 ISO. It’s difficult to imagine Perez getting through the middle of this lineup.
The Top Bat To Spend For
There are three elite bats to spend up for tonight – Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper and Trout. You can’t go wrong here, but with other options at third base, and a tougher opponent for Harper, I’m siding with Trout as my spend tonight. Martin Perez strikes out just 12.3% of right-handed bats with no ability to limit hard contact. With strong right-handed hitters surrounding him, it’s less likely that he gets pitched around, and he brings power, speed and on base upside. Though his BABIP has yet to catch up, Trout is smashing the ball so far this season with a 50% hard hit rate. He already has 3 HR, 9 Runs and 8 RBI in 11 games depsite landing on the unfortunate side of BABIP. When that corrects, look out!
What More Does He Have To Do?
I just can’t figure out why Beltre’s salary is staying at this level on DK/FRDFT. All he does is hit, day after day, year after year. He makes elite contact and is still hitting the ball hard, with a 38% hard hit rate so far this season. He already has three multi-hit games and five doubles on the season, and hits in the middle of a strong lineup. There is nothing terrible about Tyler Skaggs, but Beltre is coming off a 2017 season where he posted a .464 wOBA and 192 wRC+ against lefties. This salary is just too low.
Ace Skills At A Savings
Nola does not quite reach the elite territory of the top four aces tonight, but he is the guy who gets the biggest savings based on his skill set on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. There was some concern about pitch count after being pulled early in his first start, but he got up to 87 pitches last time out, and should be able to approach 100 if things go his way. He is a lights out pitcher against right-handed batters with a 30% strikeout rate, 5% walks and a lot of soft ground balls. He does drop off to the 23% range in strikeouts to lefties which lowers his ceiling in this matchup. But while he will see several lefties, only Joey Votto is an elite contact hitter. There are still plenty of strikeouts in this lineup and if they load up 6-7 left-handed bats, several of them will be weak hitters, which helps raise his floor even if we don’t see the huge strikeout game.
FanDuel Ace #2
Salary is a big issue tonight, and while deGrom has been priced up for the Marlins matchup on DK/FDRFT, he did not get the same bump on FanDuel, where he is cash game playable and a strong GPP option. His 2017 skill set was right alongside guys like Strasburg and Severino, with a 28.9% K rate, 7.1% BB and a 3.44 SIERA. He has been remarkably consistent in his first four seasons and has a career 2.95 ERA and 3.31 SIERA. There is very little downside going into Miami, and as much upside as anyone outside of Chris Sale.
The Best Priced Ace
It’s a loaded pitching slate, and with so many aces, salary becomes a deciding factor. There is very little to separate Strasburg from Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom or Luis Severino. What Strasburg has going for him is consistent skills that hold up against both right and left-handed batters and a remarkable nine straight seasons with a SIERA below 3.40 which shows how good he is. Though the Braves have some good lefties, Strasburg maintains his 29% K rate to LHB, and he also has a proven ability to induce soft contact from lefties, with a hard hit rate all the way down at 34% in 2017. He is in play on all sites in all formats.
Living Up To The Hype?
Is this the Sean Manaea that scouts loved and everybody talked about? It certainly looks promising, but I’m not going to overact to two starts. I will say, I like this matchup a lot. People are afraid of the Dodgers, and they have a really good lineup against right-handed pitching but not so much against lefties. Seager (22.5%), Bellinger (24.2%), Forsythe (23.6%), Taylor (26.1%), and Grandal (27.9%) all have high strikeout rates against left-handed pitching since the start of 2017. There are four guys with ISO’s over .200 against lefties in that span, but three of them have above average strikeout rates as well. In 2017, Manaea had a 11.3% swinging strike rate with a 20.2% strikeout rate but a 8% walk rate. In two starts this season, he has a 12.7% swinging strike rate with a 20.8% strikeout rate but a 1.9% walk rate. If he can continue to keep the walks down, he’s going to be someone we talk about all season.
