DFS Alerts
Game 1 of the CHW-DET doubleheader has been postponed; Game 2 to play at 8:10 ET
There is still precipitation in the area, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Game 2 forecast as roster lock approaches. Today’s postponement will lead to the two teams playing a doubleheader on Saturday.
As reported by: @WhiteSox
Michael Conforto has a league leading 302 wRC+ (75 Hard%) over the last week
Michael Conforto is the only batter with a 300 or better wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.). His 302 wRC+ leads the majors (75 Hard%, 3 HRs). He did strike out four times last night and has a 32.1 K% over the last seven days, while facing a pitcher with an 11.8 SwStr% tonight, but Chad Kuhl has only been able to turn that into an 18.3 K% with a 9.4 BB%. LHBs have a .386 wOBA and 36.4 Hard% against Kuhl in his career, making Conforto a top OF bat tonight, but another potential strike against him is that many of his HRs have gone to the opposite field and LF is where HRs go to die in Pittsburgh. Other hot hitters on the slate, all with a wRC+ above 280 and hard hit rate above 40% over the last week include Jed Lowrie (vs Masahiro Tanaka), Anthony Rendon (vs Luis Perdomo – 79.4 GB% vs RHBs this season), and Anthony Rizzo (vs Alex Wood – 73 GB% vs LHBs this season). None of those hitters have particularly favorable matchups, though Tanaka has been struggling this year.
Other tagged players: Chad Kuhl, Jed Lowrie, Masahiro Tanaka, Anthony Rendon, Luis Perdomo, Anthony Rizzo, Alex Wood
Six offenses projected for at least five runs tonight with the Red Sox (5.48) leading the way
While there may be a game at Coors tonight, the Red Sox actually have the highest projected run line (5.48) against Yovani Gallardo at Fenway, while the Rockiers are only fifth with 5.1 implied runs in a difficult matchup against Carlos Martinez under normal circumstances. Despite a deep pitching slate, six lineups still project for five runs or more tonight, though the Yankees may drop a bit going from Graveman to Manaea. A St Louis stack is likely to be popular (5.38 runs is second most) as they don’t appear to be priced up enough for Coors against Antonio Senzatela, who’s 3.67 ERA is a product of a .252 BABIP and 78.1 LOB%. A 6.3 SwStr% could make the regression even more difficult (4.87 SIERA). A spot where players could see less than warranted ownership is in Cleveland, where the Tribe takes on Ian Kennedy, who’s 4.06 ERA (4.84 SIERA) is a product of .198 BABIP. His career high 11.7 BB% matches his rate of Barrels/BBE, which is the highest on the board. Kennedy has allowed at least 25 HRs in five of the last seven seasons and Cleveland bats graded very highly in our Trendspotting article today (premium subscription required). Unfortunately, players will have to choose between Carlos Santana (126 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Edwin Encarnacion (139 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since 2015), but both have a 50% hard hit rate over the last week. Francisco Lindor (118 wRC+, .163 ISO vs RHP career) and Jason Kipnis (128 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since 2015) could help fill out middle infield needs, the latter finally seeming to get on track with a 135 wRC+ over the last week and a career 95.2 mph aEV against Kennedy (12 BBEs).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Yovani Gallardo, Carlos Martinez, Antonio Senzatela, Sean Manaea, Ian Kennedy Kendall Graveman scratched Friday. Sean Manaea expected to start vs the Yankees.
Analysis coming soon.
As reported by: Jane Lee
TGIF! - There's a massive 15 game slate in MLB tonight
There are no day games for a change tonight, a rarity in major league baseball. Pitching options are headlined by Max Scherzer who faces the woeful Padres offense and is a massive -260 favorite. He’s the clear cut chalk but with 30 pitchers taking the mound there are plenty of viable pivots. Alex Wood and Jake Arrieta will battle one another and both are interesting options in what should be a low-scoring affair in Los Angeles. Others worth a look are Chris Archer, Dan Straily, Mike Clevinger, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jacob deGrom.
There is a game in Coors which mean the hitting options start there but the game actually has a modest total for a game in Colorado (10.5 at the time of this alert) meaning it’s not as enviable spot as normal. There are five games with run totals of nine or higher – they are Oakland at the Yankees, Texas at Toronto, Seattle at Boston, Baltimore at Houston, and Detroit at Chicago. The two Coors field teams have the highest totals of the night as expected followed by Boston, the Yankees, Houston, Toronto, and Detroit. Some teams that could be sneaky options outside of those seven are Toronto, Detroit, the White Sox, and the Devil Rays.
Kenta Maeda has had a 12.9 SwStr% or better in five of seven starts
Kenta Maeda has had a 12.9 SwStr% or better in five of seven starts. He’s also gone at least seven innings in two of his last three, but no more than five in any of his other starts. The good news is that we know they’ll let him throw 100 pitches now, which would be great news on this slate with deGrom now removed if Maeda hadn’t missed time with a hamstring issue. He last pitched on May 10th. With both Verlander and Ray in potentially difficult spots, it may be a risk still worth taking, as Maeda is the third best projected pitcher tonight via RotoGrinders Player Projections. The Cardinals have a 101 wRC+ against RHP, but Dodger Stadium is one of the more negative run environments in baseball and at $9K, players will still have some room for most desired bats. While lineups have not yet been confirmed for this game, LHBs have managed some success against Maeda in his career (.321 wOBA, 32.4 Hard%), but there are several options ahead of Matt Carpenter (148 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at First Base tonight as well as Dexter Fowler (111 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in a lineup projected for a slate low 3.4 runs. Even if Maeda only goes five, the bullpen is a strength of this Dodger team.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler Zach Davies owns just a 6.6% K-BB% versus RHB this season
Zach Davies continues to be just a serviceable starting pitcher at the Major League level and is someone that we typically don’t go out of our way to plug in lineups or go out of our way to avoid rostering opposing hitters. Tonight he’ll take on a dangerous Arizona Diamondbacks offense at home in one of the top home run parks in the league, meaning this is actually a boost to the home run expectations of Diamondbacks hitters, contrary to popular belief. Davies is a perfectly average starting pitcher, evidenced by his 19.0% career strikeout rate to batters from both sides of the plate, accompanied by an average 46.1% groundball rate and a 33.7% hard hit rate. Given the neutral matchup, we should give the edge to the Arizona hitters, as they will astonishingly roll out five bats that sport wOBAs over .380 versus right-handed pitching on the season. Those bats are obviously headlined by the likes of Paul Goldschmidt (188 wRC+, .472 wOBA, .317 ISO) and Jake Lamb (177 wRC+, .455 wOBA, .353 ISO), closely followed by Brandon Drury (138 wRC+, .395 wOBA, .206 ISO), Chris Herrmann (135 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .333 ISO), and David Peralta (130 wRC+, .382 wOBA). While Chris Owings (111 wRC+, .353 wOBA) isn’t elite enough against righties to join the company of the aforementioned players, he possesses enough skills at the plate to realistically be included as a part of Diamondbacks stacks in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, Brandon Drury, Chris Herrmann, David Peralta, Chris Owings, Zach Davies
Padres at Mets carries some risk on the five game night slate
Kevin believes the Mets and Padres might be able to get a game in before more storms roll into NY tonight, but the problem with that may be that both pitchers are walk machines. The debuting Lamet had a 12 BB% at AAA this season and the replacement Montero has a 13.7 BB% in 90 major league innings. That could cause the game to move more slowly than players would like in a race against the rain. The good news is that it shouldn’t be particularly difficult to fade players from this game. Kevin has issued it an ORANGE/YELLOW in his evening forecast. Some light rain in Boston tonight that may persist throughout, but Kevin has it YELLOW tonight. It’s cold with a strong wind blowing in from center as well. Read the full forecast on the Weather page and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Robbie Ray continues to have an elite strikeout rate (28.9%), but get hit hard (46.2 Hard%)
Robbie Ray continues to dominate with whiffs (28.9 K%, 12.9 SwStr%), but also has an ERA near four (3.91 with a 4.01 SIERA) because of the strong quality of contact when opponents do make contact. His 89.7 mph aEV and 46.2 Hard% are both highest on the slate, while the Brewers ave a 38.7 Hard% and 20 HR/FB at home with a 36 Hard% and 19.2 HR/FB vs LHP. However, they strike out a quarter of the time in both instances. Against power pitchers, that increases to a 29.7 K%, but they also have the second best sOPS+ (121) via Baseball-Reference. This has the potential to be feast or famine or both on either side. Several HRs and strikeouts are not out of the question, as exposure to both sides of this matchup may be warranted. RHBs have a .338 wOBA against Ray since last season, while batters from both sides have a 38 Hard% since last season. Jonathan Villar (118 wRC+), Eric Thames (220 wRC+), Ryan Braun (160 wRC+), Domingo Santana (139 wRC+) and Keon Broxton (127 wRC+) all have an ISO above .200 against LHP since 2015 (or for their career).
As reported by: Baseball-Reference Team Splits Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton Mike Fiers has allowed a league leading 17 HRs, Tigers have a 42.6 Hard% vs RHP
Mike Fiers has a reverse platoon split (.376 wOBA, 36.7 Hard% since last season) and owns the highest rate of Barrels on the slate (10.7% per BBE, 7.6% per PA). He’s allowed a league leading 17 HRs (11 to RHBs) and does not even have enough innings for ERA qualification yet. The Tigers have a 42.6 Hard% vs RHP. A 4.3 implied run line sits right in the middle of the slate, making this a great lineup to stack with their top four RH bats. Miguel Cabrera (152 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 193 wRC+ (61.5 Hard%) over the last week and a 97.2 mph aEV on nine BBEs (12 PAs) against Fiers. J.D. Martinez (144 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since 2015) might be the top overall bat in the lineup at this point (191 wRC+, 63.6 Hard% last seven days). Ian Kinsler (110 wRC+, .149 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top three Second Base bat via RotoGrinders Player Projections and a top three value at the position on DraftKings. Justin Upton (120 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been ice cold (-24 wRC+, .14.3 Hard% last seven days), but does offer some savings in a favorable spot.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Mike Fiers, Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton Astros bats are in sneaky-good spot against the 2017 version of Justin Verlander
It’s an understatement to say that Justin Verlander hasn’t been the same pitcher he was last season, but remains somewhat serviceable, though that is something we haven’t come to expect from Verlander over time. His strikeout rate to left-handed batters still sits at a respectable 25.0%, but his walk rate has ballooned to 12.9%, which is very un-Verlander like. His struggles become even more pronounced when looking a 19.6% strikeout to right-handed batters while surrendering hard contact at a 38.2% rate, compared to a 34.6% hard hit rate to lefties, which still checks in well above the league average. In fact, if we took away Verlander’s name value and just analyzed his advanced statistics from 2017, the Houston Astros have one of the better matchups as on offense on the whole. With Brian McCann still on the seven-day concussion disabled list, the Astros really only have two left-handed bats we want to target, and that’s Josh Reddick (129 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .206 ISO vs RHP), who owns just an 11.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching on the year, and Marwin Gonzalez (177 wRC+, .426 wOBA, .338 ISO vs RHP). The remaining Astros righties like Carlos Correa (141 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .221 ISO vs RHP), Jose Altuve (136 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .180 ISO vs RHP), and Evan Gattis (.221 ISO vs RHP since 2016) have really yet to exhibit their power potential on a consistent basis, but they all remain in play as a part of a Houston stack or even one-offs in tournaments if looking to attack Verlander’s aforementioned hard hit rate and 53.9% fly ball rate versus righties.
Other tagged players: Marwin Gonzalez, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis, Justin Verlander Dinelson Lamet had high strikeout and walk rates throughout the minors
Dinelson Lamet is making his major league debut against the Mets. Not a highly regarded prospect (Fangraphs gave him a 40 grade and ranked him 25th in the organization) generated strikeouts at a high level (above 25% at every level except 65 innings of high A ball last season), but also showed a wild streak with a walk rate above 9.5% at most stops and at 12% in 39 AAA innings this season. He’s generated about as many fly balls as grounders in his professional career. There is occasionally something to be said about a debuting pitcher against a team that’s never seen him, but he could also play into the Mets’ strength with a scouting report suggesting he lacks an out pitch against LHBs. Michael Conforto (140 wRC+, .263 ISO career vs RHP) continues to be a house of fire (368 wRC+, 72.7 Hard%, 3 HRs) and is the top overall projected bat via RotoGrinders Player Projections. Lucas Duda (120 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is cheap at a loaded position, but projects as potentially the top value at on FanDuel tonight ($3.9 Pt/$/K). The rest of the lineup is more difficult to get a read on against an unknown pitcher. Jay Bruce has gone cold and has missed the last few days with a back issue his manager has not been allowed to talk about. There are additionally some weather concerns in this game as Kevin had it YELLOW/ORANGE in his early forecast. The Mets are projected for 4.47 runs, which is third highest on the slate, so weather concerns aside (temperatures around 60 as well), some exposure to Mets bats is probably worth considering for multiple lineup players.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Dinelson Lamet, Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce Reds-Indians postponed on Thursday
The game is to be rescheduled for July 24th. Make sure to remove all players from this game from your lineups!
Jacob deGrom scratched Thursday; Rafael Montero to start tonight, deGrom pushed back a day
deGrom is likely to start tomorrow with Montero taking his spot in the rotation this evening. This is great news for the Padres bats, as they now become a sneaky GPP stack against a pitcher that has struggled mightily at the big league level.
Other tagged players: Rafael Montero Boston has the highest implied run line (5.37) by more than half a run against Nick Martinez
Though weather conditions (temperatures in the 50s with wind potentially blowing in from center at 14 mph) do not necessarily favor offense, the Red Sox enjoy the highest implied run line tonight (5.37) by more than half a run over Houston when they face off with Nick Martinez (4.33 ERA, 4.86 SIERA, 12.8 K%). While he has held RHBs to a 25.3 Hard% and 51.7 GB% since last season, they’ve still put up a .342 wOBA against him due to a negative K-BB%. LHBs have flat out destroyed him (.381 wOBA, 36.5 Hard%). The entire top and middle of this lineup grades out well with weather the only real drawback. Hanley Ramirez (two HRs in nine PAs, 93.2 mph aEV on 6 BBEs) is the only batter on the slate with multiple HRs against tonight’s pitcher. Andrew Benintendi (132 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP career) and Mookie Betts (131 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top five overall projected bats tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections). Boston bats are expensive and there’s always the question of whether to pay up for a low power bat like Xander Bogaerts (.126 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in the middle of a potentially potent lineup at a weak position, but expectations are that they should be worth the cost as a group tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Nick Martinez, Xander Bogaerts