DFS Alerts

Rays may be a sneaky source of HRs tonight

Tampa Bay faces Ricky Nolasco tonight, who’s given up two home runs in six of his nine starts this season. His fly ball rate tops the slate at 44.8% while he has the fourth-highest Hard% (38.0%), the third-lowest Soft% (14.6%), and the fifth-highest HR/FB rate (18.8%). The Rays offer some dangerous bats for this matchup, such as Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison, both of whom have an FB% of at least 43.6% to go along with hard contact rates of 42.6%+, HR/FB rates of 26.8%+, ISOs of .328+, and wOBAs of .378+ vs. RHP this season – although they’re pretty similar in most of those categories, Dickerson has a notably higher wOBA of .435. Colby Rasmus has a .220 ISO, 39.3% Hard%, a 40.7% FB%, and a HR/FB rate of 27.3% vs. RHP; he’ll be another LHB target. On the right side of the plate, Tim Beckham, Evan Longoria, and Steve Souza are worth a look as well; they all have ISOs between .192-.207 and wOBAs between .330-.359. Beckham and Souza both have HR/FB rates of 22.2% or better and Beckham has a very high 48.7% Hard%. Tampa Bay has an implied total of 4.3 runs – 11th on tonight’s slate – and they’re playing in a tough ballpark in Los Angeles. That means they could be a sneaky stack for tournaments – Nolasco has given up two dingers in two of four home starts this season. Plus, the Angels bullpen has had trouble keeping the ball on the ground this season; their 45.2% FB% is the highest of any bullpen.

Yasmany Tomas scratched Wednesday

Daniel Descalso will now play left field and bat 5th. Tomas was scratched with tightness in his left hip flexor, although it’s unclear at this point whether or not he’ll miss any time beyond today.

Joc Pederson has a 101.6 mph aEV on 10 BBEs in 10 PAs against Mike Leake

There’s very little relevant BvP information on tonight’s slate. No batter has more than two HRs against tonight’s pitcher with only three having even that many. Meanwhile, only four batters have at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against the pitcher whom they are facing tonight, but three of those are Dodgers against Mike Leake. While Yasmani Grandal has just an 87.3 mph aEV against Leake, Chase Utley has two HRs with a 90.5 mph aEV and Joc Pederson has a 101.6 mph aEV on 10 BBEs, despite no extra-base hits. Pederson has made put the ball in play in all 10 of his PAs against Leake. Mike Leake’s 2.03 ERA is predicated on a .244 BABIP and 86.5 LOB%. Although his 3.88 SIERA is not bad, regression is likely for him in the present. Pederson did leave last night’s game after a collision with Yasiel Puig, so make sure to confirm his presence in the tonight’s lineup.

Michael Conforto is the hottest bat on the night slate (335 wRC+, 66.7 Hard% last seven days)

Michael Conforto’s 335 wRC+ (66.7 Hard%, 4 HRs) is highest on the slate over the last week (10 PA min.) with a backup Catcher (Kurt Suzuki 302 wRC+) being the only other player above 300 over the last week. Conforto is in an interesting spot at home against Jarred Cosart. LHBs have a 62.4 GB% and -0.8 Hard-Soft% in his career, but just a 3.2 K-BB% and Conforto has a 202 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers this year (Baseball-Reference) in 30 PAs with four extra-base hits. Another batter of interest in that game may be Ryan Schimpf (244 wRC+, 62.5 Hard%, 2 HRs last seven days). He homered last night and faces Robert Gsellman, who has allowed a 35.4 Hard% to LHBs since entering the league. Whoever the Braves employ behind the plate tonight will enter the game hot. Tyler Flowers has a 242 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. The Braves are projected for a surprisingly high 4.95 runs facing Trevor Williams (RHBs .370 wOBA). A pair of Angels comprise two of the other hottest hitters on the slate in Mike Trout (251 wRC+, 72.7 Hard%, 3 HRs) and Cameron Maybin (240 wRC+, 40 Hard%, 2 HRs). One of those names might be a surprise. They face the competent Erasmo Ramirez (3.00 ERA, 3.37 SIERA, 20.5 K%), but then likely a lot of a mediocre Tampa Bay bullpen in the latter half of the game.

Trio of cheap LH Pittsburgh bats can offer savings against Teheran (LHBs .344 wOBA since 2016)

On a non-Coors slate, a surprising four teams of 20 teams on the night slate have an implied run live of five or more with the Freeman-less Braves even closing in on that mark at 4.95 against Trevor Williams (6.04 ERA, 5.12 SIERA) at home. Although projected for just 4.55 runs, an interesting semi-stack might be the other side of that matchup for players looking to save money to pay up for Chris Sale. Julio Teheran has not enjoyed his new ballpark. He has allowed eight HRs in total this season with six of them to LHBs. Since last season, LHBs a .344 wOBA and 35.2 Hard% against him, while he’s held RHBs to a .248 wOBA and 31 Hard%. While Pittsburgh is still a predominantly RH lineup, there are a few LHBs (some with mulit-positional eligibility on DK), who have been getting some playing time recently. Although they don’t possess a lot of power, Josh Bell, John Jaso and Adam Frazier all have a wRC+ between 114 and 127 against RHP since last season and have at least a wRC+ between 170 and 187 over the last week. None are more expensive than $3.9K on DraftKings or $3.3K on FanDuel, allowing those who roster one or more of them potential salary flexibility in other areas of their lineup. Watch for lineup alerts to make sure that these players are in the confirmed lineup tonight.

Jeremy Hellickson's 5.49 SIERA is the highest among tonight's starters

Hellickson is 5-1 on the season but his statistics paint a different picture. His 9.9 K%, 7.3% SwStr%, 85.4% Contact%, and 33.9% GB% are the worst marks of his career while his 44.8% FB% is well above his already-high 39.6% career average. Although he’s limited batters to a 28.2% Hard%, he’s undoubtedly gotten lucky – his 5.49 SIERA is far above his 3.44 ERA, his .205 BABIP is much lower than his .270 career average, and his 82.1% LOB% is 7.0% above his normal rate. He’s been particularly poor against left-handed batters this season. He’s faced 90 total and he’s posted a 32.4% GB%, 51.4% FB%, 31.2% Hard%, and a K% of just 5.6%. Although his wOBA against LHH is just .251, his BABIP is currently .149, which is bound to increase. This sets up a nice matchup for Charlie Blackmon (.276 ISO, 47.3% FB%, 38.3% Hard%, .413 wOBA vs. RHP) and Carlos Gonzalez (.139 ISO, 41.4% FB%, 32.3% Hard%, .291 wOBA). Right-handed batters are in play as well and Colorado is an intriguing stack in this spot. Mark Reynolds (.283 ISO, 32.1% FB%, 36.9% Hard%, .444 wOBA) and Nolan Arendo (.200 ISO, 49.5% FB%, 34.3% Hard%, .309 wOBA) stand out as strong options on the right side. In addition to Hellickson having a high SIERA, the Phillies’ bullpen has the highest in the league (4.43) along with the worst FB% (40.7%) and second-worst HR/FB rate (16.2%) – even if the Rockies force the starter out of the game, they’ll still be in a very favorable spot.

Reds-Indians game is the only trouble spot on early slate, considered ORANGE

This game isn’t on the DraftKings early slate but they have it over at FanDuel. That makes the FD slate a bit tricky as this game doesn’t get started until 6:10 EST. As of now, Kevin Roth isn’t expecting the game to start in a delay, but he’s anticipating rain after the first pitch, which may prevent the game from finishing. It’s certainly risky and it may be best to limit players from this game to tournaments. Elsewhere on the early slate, there are 10-15 mph winds blowing out to right center in the Marlins-Athletics game. On the main slate, there are some rains concerns for the Cardinals-Cubs matchup and Roth is considering it YELLOW/ORANGE for now. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.

Four game afternoon slate kicks off full day of MLB DFS action

It’s a split slate Wednesday as eight teams will take part in afternoon action and the rest of the league playing under the lights (with one early start as usual in Cleveland that will only be available on the all day slate). The early slate doesn’t feature much pitching with Marcus Stroman likely the top option of the eight pitchers taking the mound. Plenty of offensive weapons to choose from as three of the four games have a nine run total or higher and Arizona is playing at home in what will likely be the chalk game of the slate.

There are better options for pitching in the late slate with Chris Sale and Rich Hill the two obvious chalk options. There will be plenty of bats to choose from as well as there are run totals of nine or higher in four games (and a TBD for the Cubs game) with KC at Yankees, Seattle at Washington, Pittsburgh at Atlanta (highest total of the night), and Detroit at Houston all topping that mark. The highest projected run totals go to the Red Sox, Yankees, and Braves while the lowest totals go to Texas, St.Louis, and San Diego.

Jose Berrios leads DK early slate with a SwStr% of 12.4% this season

Berrios has been excellent through two starts. He’s pitched 7.2 innings in each game while limiting opponents to four total hits and one run. His sample size is small, but he’s posted a 27.8% K% this year, with 11 of his 15 strikeouts coming in his last start. That’s a sharp rise from his 17.4% rate through 58.1 innings last season, but he’s been a strong strikeout pitcher throughout his rise in the minors; he’s posted at least a 25.1% K rate at each stop since 2015. With his SwStr% rate up 4.2% from 2016, it’s possible he maintains an above average strikeout rate. As a result, he’s also limited batters to a 76.2% contact rate and he’s posted a Soft% of 29.4%, which is higher than his 26.5% Hard%. All of those numbers are the best among early slate pitchers and so is his 3.19 SIERA. When opponents are connecting with the ball, they’re hitting fly balls 55.9% of the time though. Plus, his BABIP is .118, a number that will rise over the long run. His 0.59 ERA will eventually move towards his SIERA as well. He’ll have a tough test against the Orioles today, a team that has the second-highest projected run total on the slate. However, they do better against LHP – against RHP they’re 13th in ISO (.174), 19th in wOBA (.318), 18th in wRC+ (98), and 23rd in Hard% (30.4%). They don’t strikeout a ton, but they’re 21st in K% vs. RHP (21.8%). All in all, Berrios is an appealing target. Despite ranking seventh in salary on DraftKings, he’s second in projected points on the site.

Paul Goldschmidt has been on the money against right-handed pitching this season

While Goldy has been more prolific against left-handed pitching throughout his career, his numbers against right-handers this season jump off the page, especially at home. Goldschmidt owns an elite .472 wOBA, .313 ISO and 188 wRC+ through 140 PAs against RHs, and those numbers jump to .528, .370 and 224 when he’s facing them in Chase Field. Goldy is also sitting on some very strong batted ball data against RHP to date – he owns a 42.0 Hd-Sft% against RHP overall and a 54.6 Hd-Sft% against RHP at home. There are a number of viable options towards the top of the first base salary chart, but Goldy stands head and shoulders above the rest on this slate, as Dylan Covey is arguably the weakest arm taking the hill tonight. Covey has allowed an astonishing eight HRs to RH hitters already this season (4.32 HR/9) and owns a -3.3 K-BB% against them.

The Diamondbacks' high implied team total is holding steady at 6.2 runs

Dylan Covey continues to prove that he is far from a Major League caliber starting pitcher and now heads to the hitters’ paradise known as Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks this evening. Covey’s one calling card in Minors was his ability to keep the ball on the ground, something he has struggled with thus far in the 2017 campaign (45.6% GB%). When his low groundballs are combined with an unsightly 12.8% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, and 6.2% swinging strike rate, you come away with his current 5.40 SIERA on the season. For whatever reason, Covey hasn’t been able to generate ground balls like he did in the Minors, and that has simply left him as an extremely hittable pitcher at the Major League level. Unfortunately for him, the Diamondbacks have a plethora of guys that mash right-handed pitching, beginning with Paul Goldschmidt (188 wRC+, .472 wOBA, .313 ISO vs RHP) and Jake Lamb (179 wRC+, .458 wOBA, .342 ISO vs RHP), who look to be two of the top options on Tuesday’s entire slate. Yasmany Tomas (136 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .300 ISO vs RHP) and David Peralta (133 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .175 ISO vs RHP) follow closely behind and remain in play for all formats, though Peralta, along with Chris Herrmann (110 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are virtually must plays on FanDuel for their bargain price tags. If in need of additional salary savings, it’s tough to even argue against a guy like Reymond Fuentes, who stands to benefit from leading off for this dangerous Arizona offense in a nearly perfect matchup.

Giants-Cubs to start in a delay; no start time announced yet

The Giants-Cubs tilt will officially start in a rain delay, although no start time has been announced at this point. We’ll continue to update through 7:05 ET, but beat reporters at the stadium seem to think the delay could last a decent amount of time, so pivoting off players from this game has some merit if you’re trying to limit your risk.

Several high-risk rain concerns to monitor in Tuesday's latest MLB weather forecast

The biggest postponement threat comes to us in the game between the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, where Kevin Roth currently has the risk classified as ORANGE/RED. This is automatic stay away from a pitching perspective, while batters become extremely risky should the game be postponed. Kevin is hopeful we will know the verdict for this contest prior to lock as it is currently raining in Chicago with more heavy rain on the way. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.

Lance McCullers leads Tuesday's slate in K% (27.2%) and GB% (60.8%)

In addition to the aforementioned stats, McCullers has the lowest SIERA (2.94), contact rate (72.8%), FB% (19.0%), and the second-highest SwStr% (12.1%). Clayton Kershaw will probably the most popular pitching option on tonight’s slate, but McCullers has arguably put up better numbers. Kershaw has him beat in ERA (2.15 to 2.65) – although his 3.08 SIERA is slightly higher – BB% (3.4% to 6.8%), and in Soft% (25.6% to 22.5%); he’s given up more hard contact than McCullers though (29.8% to 26.1%). When it comes to their matchups, both pitchers are in decent strikeout spots. Kershaw is facing St. Louis, a team that has a K% of 22.2% against LHP while the Tigers and their 22.9% K% against RHP will take on McCullers. Vegas provides a higher projected run total to the Tigers (3.21 to 2.57), most likely due to their better hitting splits when considering the handedness of each starter – .166 ISO for the Tigers to the Cardinals’ .126, .320 wOBA to .302, 100 wRC+ to 84, 43.3% Hard% to 33.9%, and a 19.2% HR/FB to 12.3%. St. Louis has them beat in FB% though, 42.3% to Detroit’s 38.0%. McCullers’ may be in a tougher spot, but his numbers shouldn’t be ignored – plus, he appears underpriced. Despite projecting as our SP2, he’s fourth in salary on the slate and he’s a whopping $3.2K cheaper than Kershaw on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has plenty of upside and seems to have a pretty safe floor considering his high K%, GB%, and low SIERA and ERA, so he’s an excellent pivot for those looking to save some money at the pitcher position.

Avisail Garcia scratched from White Sox lineup; Melky Cabrera now in the lineup batting 5th

Garcia has been scratched for undisclosed reasons, which will afford Melky Cabrera the fifth spot in the batting order. Cabrera will man left field with Willy Garcia shifting over to right.