DFS Alerts
Joel De La Cruz owns a measly 4.7% K-BB% on the season
De La Cruz could be the worst pitcher on this slate, and that is enough to put Phillies bats into consideration. De La Cruz has a 5.25 SIERA with a 12.2% strikeout rate this season and has shown no real skill set against either right or left-handed batters. Obviously, the Phillies are not loaded with hitters we to love to target against right-handed pitching, but the price tags on Odubel Herrera (121 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .159 ISO vs RHP) and Ryan Howard (.263 ISO, 46% hard hits) are very hard to ignore. Freddy Galvis (.176 ISO vs RHP)) could be added to a Phillies stack along with Maikel Franco (.161 ISO vs RHP), both of whom are very cheap. Herrera, Franco and Galvis are all especially interesting on DraftKings given an egregious pricing error that has the trio priced at minimum salary. Unfortunately the individual numbers for the Phillies bats against right-handed pitching are not great, but De La Cruz is bad enough to attack at these prices.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ryan Howard, Freddy Galvis, Maikel Franco, Joel De La Cruz
Noah Syndergaard has struck out 21 of 77 with a 60 GB% an 16 Hard% last three starts
Noah Syndergaard has looked stronger than he has in a while over his last three starts (21 Ks – 77 BF) with 60% of his contact on the ground and only 16% of it marked as hard. He’s allowed just a single run in 15 innings over his last two starts. He’s facing a nearly neutral offense (100 wRC+ on the road, 97 wRC+ vs RHP) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball at home and is tonight’s top overall pitcher and still likely well worth paying up for, but perhaps not the top one with an increased price tag. He’s the most expensive pitcher on either site. Players may have to look at Bryce Harper (129 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP this season) for less than $4K on DraftKings, but he does not have an extra-base hit in 17 PAs with five Ks against Syndergaard and the Marlins are projected for just 3.33 runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Bryce Harper
Cespedes and Cabrera return to the lineup against A.J. Cole, Conforto back to the bench
Asdrubal Cabrera (105 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Yoenis Cespedes (143 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2015) return after a night off on a wet field with nagging leg injuries, but shame on you if that was enough of a reason to bench the hottest SS in the land because Cabrera (365 wRC+, 34.8 Hard%) still hit a PH homer and is a nice value for $2.9K on FanDuel tonight. A.J. Cole is not much of a prospect anymore, but did pitch well in one of his two starts and has at least gotten his strikeout rate back up to league average (20.5%) at AAA this season. There’s still a bit of unknown here, so we’re not looking to load up against Cole, but this is a lineup that’s hitting the ball hard with Cespedes joining Cabrera with Granderson (133 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Bruce (109 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2015) as Mets batters who have a strong track record against RHP and a hard hit rate above 43% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, A.J. Cole Marcus Stroman has increased his GB rate above 60% with a 27.2 K% since the break
Since the All-Star break, Marcus Stroman has brought his already league leading ground ball rate up to 60.9%, while a 27.2 K% has brought his strikeout rate up to league average. That’s a nearly dominant pitcher with the only wrinkle being he’s still allowing hard contact at an average rate (31.8%), which has kept his BABIP at .317. The Rays aren’t a bad overall offense (100 wRC+ vs RHP), but they strike out a ton (25.1% at home, 23.7% vs RHP) and it’s a nice park upgrade for Stroman. He’s a top pitcher tonight and probably one of the top values on the board for $7.8K on FanDuel ($2K less than DraftKings). While batters have been able to occasionally get the ball out of the park when they elevate (18 HRs). He has kept batters from either side on the ground evenly at just over 60% and with a projection of just 3.6 runs, there’s no interest in this lineup.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Indians check-in with the highest implied run total outside of Coors Field (5.0)
Andrew Cashner has reverted back to his struggling ways since being traded to the Marlins at the deadline. His overall pitching profile for the season is still pretty ugly as well, with a mediocre 18.0% strikeout rate, an inflated 9.0% walk rate, a 4.68 SIERA, and a 35.8% hard contact rate allowed. His 10.5% walk rate is much higher against left-handed batters, compared to 7.6% versus right-handed batters, and he surrenders hard contact 40.4% of the time against lefties. This includes a 23.2% line drive rate, compared to just 14.0% for RHB. Cashner has had issues with lefties for most of his career, and this year is no exception. Any Indians bat swinging from the left side of the plate is in play here, but Carlos Santana (129 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .269 ISO vs RHP), Francisco Lindor (121 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .152 ISO vs RHP), and Jason Kipnis (119 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .205 ISO vs RHP) are the top options to target.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Andrew Cashner Chad Green has been HR prone, but has a 26.4 K%
Chad Green has a 26.4 K% with a 12.4 SwStr%. He has been a bit homer prone though with 11 in three starts, including three to this Baltimore offense last time out, but nine of his 11 HRs have come in just three starts (seven in just two), so there is some upside here if he can avoid the long ball, or even if he does allow a couple for just $5.6K on DraftKings. That wiggle room may be needed in a tough spot in Baltimore (17.5 HR/FB at home, 17.4 HR/FB vs RHP). LHBs do have a .421 wOBA and 37.9 Hard% against him. Chris Davis (142 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has plenty of value for $4.5K on DK ($1.1K less on FD) as does Pedro Alvarez (117 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in the two spot for $3.8K or less. Davis hit two of the three HRs against Green in his last outing. We’d consider refraining from higher priced RHBs as Green has handled them well (.273 wOBA, three HRs).
Other tagged players: Chad Green, Pedro Alvarez Carlos Carrasco has struck out eight or more batters in five straight starts
Carlos Carrasco lasted just four innings in his last start, the first time in five starts he had failed to go at least 6.2 innings, but he still managed to strike out at least eight batters for the fifth straight start with a 13.2 SwStr% over that span. A 37.2 Hard% has kept his ERA at 3.58 during this period, but when you have a K-BB above 30%, there’s not much to worry about. He faces the Marlins tonight, who have just a 10.0 HR/FB vs RHP and even less power than that currently in their lineup. In tonight’s lineup, only Yelich (153 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Scruggs (120 wRC+, .171 ISO) have an wRC+ above 90 or an ISO above .130 against RHP this year. Carlos Carrasco is unquestionably a top pitcher tonight, especially with Ozuna out again.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Xavier Scruggs Junior Guerra has pitched to just 12 AAA batters over the last month
Junior Guerra has a 2.93 ERA well more than a run below his SIERA due to a suppressed BABIP (.242) and HR rate (8.6 HR/FB). If he wasn’t already slightly over-priced, he’s faced just 12 AAA batters in a rehab start over the last month and likely won’t go very deep into this game. In a negative run environment that punishes RH power, there aren’t too many Pirates bats on the daily fantasy radar tonight, but LHBs do have a 38.7 Hard% against Guerra. Josh Bell (198 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP) may provide great value for $3K or less out of the two spot.
Other tagged players: Junior Guerra Votto OUT of Reds lineup as top prospect Alex Reyes makes his second start
Saying Joey Votto is out of the Reds lineup tonight is almost like saying the Reds offense is sitting tonight. It was already a nice spot for Alex Reyes in his second start. He’s brought some control issues from the minors, walking four in his first start and 14.6% of batters overall, but he’s also struck out 17 of 55 batters faced in the majors with his velocity remaining above 96 mph on average in that start and those are the things that sped him through the system. Only 20% of his contact has been hard and he threw 89 pitches last time out, so we’re less concerned about a pitch count here at a cost still below $6.5K. The Reds have some power at home, but again, a lot of that is Votto and they have just a 89 wRC+ vs RHP with him (and Bruce for most the year). A good spot just got better for a pitcher with immense upside. He has the potential to provide great value on FanDuel ($5.2K). One interesting bat on the Cincinnati end is Scott Schebler (95 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who moves up a spot in the order with Votto out, costs just $3.5K on DraftKings and has a 221 wRC+ with a 50 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Scott Schebler Cubs large favorites in lone afternoon game against Giants
It wouldn’t be Friday afternoon without a Cubs home game and them being prohibitive favorites. Such is the case again today as Jon Lester takes on the visiting San Francisco Giants and Albert Suarez. The Cubs are -215 favorites making Lester an option in both cash and GPP’s for those playing the all day slate. Buster Posey and Hunter Pence both hit LHP well (both over .388 wOBA, .200 ISO) and are viable one off’s from the Giants lineup. Suarez has allowed a .325+ wOBA to both sides of the plate putting most of the Cubs lineup in play. Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist are the top options batting 3rd and 4th with Dexter Fowler (leading off), Kris Bryant (batting 2nd), and Jason Heyward (batting 6th) all playable options either on their own or as part of a Cubs team stack.
As reported by: San Francisco Giants official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Buster Posey
Marlins @ Mets now upgraded, likely to start on time
The tarp is off the field and Kevin is calling Marlins @ Mets a straight YELLOW. It’s likely to start on time with a good chance of a clean game.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Kevin has downgraded Marlins @ Mets (likely late start)
Kevin has downgraded the Marlins @ Mets from YELLOW/GREEN to YELLOW/ORANGE. While a two color downgrade is significant, the feeling is still that this game will play, but will likely be delayed to start. Again, on a three game slate, it’s going to take a lot to move players off the top pitcher, but it does pose a question about how this will affect his ownership, which was projected upwards of 50% (67% on DraftKings).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Kevin's evening weather update is posted
A couple of changes from this morning, as Kevin has a few words on two of tonight’s three games. The Marlins Mets is still expected to clear out before game time, but could experience a late start. The Giants Cubs has a slightly higher risk of isolated showers with strong winds blowing in from center. On just a three game slate, there’s nothing that seems concerning enough to warrant fading tonight. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Mike Montgomery has struck out 20 of 89 batters in four starts this year
Mike Montgomery has struck out 10 of 41 batter in two starts for the Cubs. He pitched fairly well in two starts for Seattle, just before being traded right around the All-Star break, striking out 10 of 48 batters. He faces a good San Francisco offense that doesn’t strike out much, though a bit more vs LHP (18.1%), but also hasn’t been very good (89 wRC+) or shown much more power on the road (10.5 HR/FB). For the asking price, he doesn’t even really have to do much and is a nice compliment to one of the higher priced pitchers on DraftKings. He may even be usable on FanDuel for just $5.8K if you want to stack up on expensive bats. Buster Posey (140 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Brandon Crawford (99 wRC+, .142 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are still probably top bats at their position with just three games. Both, along with Pence and Panik, have a wRC+ above 175 over the last week.
Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Hunter Pence, Joe Panik Jose Quintana is inducing just a 37.0% GB% against RHB compared to 54.1% versus LHB
This game surprisingly has the highest run total of the night even with two respectable pitchers going. The Twins can be a dangerous offense against left-handed pitching. Although, Minnesota ranks just 13th in team wOBA against lefties, they do rank 5th in team ISO and have plenty of power bats. Brian Dozier (175 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .370 ISO vs LHP) and Miguel Sano (128 wRC+, .364 wOBA, .232 ISO vs LHP) are obviously always a threat to take a pitcher deep. Jose Quintana does allow a lot of hard contact (33.0%), but he has managed the lowest ground ball rate of his career thus far at 40.9% this season. His 3.95 SIERA is well above his low 2.77 ERA, and regression is likely coming when his .282 BABIP corrects a bit. This is a terrific spot to get a low-owned stack in tournaments and fade a pitcher that is likely to be fairly high owned simply because he’s the second best pitcher on the slate. Dozier and Sano are great cash game options, while Jorge Polanco (.171 ISO vs LHP) and Trevor Plouffe (.206 ISO vs LHP) are the best candidates to round out a Twins stack in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Trevor Plouffe, Jose Quintana