DFS Alerts
Jose Bautista back, leads off with Travis still OUT against Jered Weaver
Jered Weaver has allowed 30 HRs this season, which strangely isn’t even the most on the slate, but it’s enough to direct players towards a Toronto stack. Projected for a slate high six runs, nearly a run above any other offense, they’re going to be extremely popular tonight though. Check their projected ownership tonight on our Projected Ownership page for more on that. Devon Travis remains out, but the Blue Jays get Jose Bautista back tonight (141 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and he hits out of the leadoff spot, priced well below the other Toronto mashers in this matchup. The Blue Jays stack eight RHBs and it doesn’t really matter because batters from either side have a .354 wOBA against Weaver since last season, though RHBs actually have a much higher 34.6 Hard%. Josh Donaldson (149 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Edwin Encarnacion (149 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top overall bats tonight, while Russell Martin (105 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Troy Tulowitzki (98 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since 20150 are top bats at their position.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Jered Weaver, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki
Tom Koehler has a 15.7 K-BB% in seven starts since the All-Star break, faces worst road offense (78 wRC+) tonight
Tom Koehler struck out just two Pirates in his last start, but his league average 9.5 SwStr% was his lowest in seven starts since the break. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last six starts, walking more than one just once with an above average 15.7 K-BB% over that span. He gets the worst road offense in baseball tonight (78 wRC+), a lineup that never walks (5.9% on the road, 6.3% vs RHP) and has little power (9.1 HR/FB vs RHP). Koehler does have an 88.2 LOB% since the break too, but he’s missing more bats, walking fewer batters and may have the best matchup on the board tonight for just over $7K. The Royals are projected for just 3.6 runs have just one batter has a wRC+ above 92 vs RHP this year in tonight’s lineup.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Scherzer has a 37.9% K% to RHB, Baltimore has conveniently decided to roll out seven RHB
Scherzer seemingly provides a lot safety as a hefty favorite in this matchup, especially when you combine that with his 31.7% strikeout rate on the year. He hasn’t been quite as great this season as he was in 2015, but his 3.05 ERA and SIERA are both well above league average. The primary concern here is that Scherzer allows a lot of fly balls 48.8%, while owning just a 33.8% ground ball rate. That could be a problem against a Baltimore offense that has power bats up and down their order, and there is certainly a fair chance that Baltimore hits a home run or two against the Washington ace. If Scherzer does surrender any home runs, hopefully he is able to limit the damage by preventing excess base runners. Scherzer is the clear top pitching option on the slate because no other pitcher on the mound tonight can match his upside when he is on his game.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Bruce, Walker remain OUT as Mets face Adam Wainwright
Adam Wainwright has an 7.71 ERA well above his peripherals over the last month (4.83 SIERA & xFIP), but besides his strikeout rate declining heavily (16.8%), his walk rate is up over 9% over that span. This has been a pitcher with exceptional control during his peak seasons, who is no longer useful to daily fantasy players again. It’s difficult to be high on Mets bats either, projected for just 3.7 runs, once again missing several key bats (Walker, Bruce). Asdrubal Cabrera has hit well since returning (140 wRC+, 46.7 Hard% over the last week) and bats second for around $3K on either site, but has just an 88 wRC+ and .167 ISO vs RHP this season. Cespedes has been the only real above average bat vs RHP this year (132 wRC+, .260 ISO) and he costs quite a bit tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Adam Wainwright Ubaldo Jimenez is surrendering 1.79 HR/9 to LHB this season
Ubaldo Jimenez was dreadful in the Orioles starting rotation before being replaced by Dylan Bundy at the end of July. Now, Jimenez will be taking the place of Chris Tillman, who was just placed on the disabled list. This is a great spot for the Nationals, as Jimenez has one of the highest walk rates in the league at 12.9% this season. His SIERA sits at 5.03, and he has surrendered hard contact 32.4% of the time. This alone will make the Washington’s hitters pretty popular tonight. Jimenez has been particularly awful against left-handed batters, allowing them to accumulate a .423 wOBA and a 34.1% hard hit rate. Jimenez also allows more walks (13.9%) and a higher fly ball rate (34.1% to left-handed batters. Basically, Bryce Harper (130 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .210 ISO vs RHP) and Daniel Murphy (168 wRC+, .427 wOBA, .276 ISO vs RHP) are two of the top plays of the slate in all formats. A full Nationals stack is obviously more than viable in tournaments, as Jimenez has a tendency to totally implode at times. Trea Turner (158 wRC+, .412 wOBA, .259 ISO vs RHP) loses the platoon advantage in this matchup but is still a vital part of any Washington stack.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Ubaldo Jimenez Runs should be scored in Minnesota today
Vegas has given the Detroit-Minnesota game a hefty run total of 10 with Daniel Norris of the Tigers facing Jose Berrios of the Twins so offense should be the focus here and your lineups should reflect that. Both pitchers can be avoided as they haven’t shown much this season. Miguel Cabrera and the two Martinez’s (J.D. and Victor) are the top options from the Tigers with Ian Kinsler, Tyler Collins (batting second), and Justin Upton good add ons if you’re looking to stack the team. For the Twins the top options are Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, and Max Kepler with Robbie Grossman, Trevor Plouffe, and Jorge Polanco the players you’d want to add if going with a Twins stack.
As reported by: Detroit Tigers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Miguel Sano
Red Sox take on Rays in what looks to be a low scoring game
Vegas has given both Boston and Tampa run totals below four with the Red Sox and Drew Pomeranz moderate -125 road favorites over the Rays and Jake Odorizzi. Pomeranz is the better option of the two as he faces a Rays team that has the highest K rate in baseball against LHP. Odorizzi pitches excellent at home but is a risky option facing a powerful Red Sox lineup. No bats jump out as must plays on the Red Sox and David Ortiz is sitting this one out – some secondary options come from the top five in the order (Pedroia, Bogaerts, Betts, H.Ramirez, Bradley) while only Evan Longoria and Logan Forsythe are worth a look from the Rays.
As reported by: Pete Abraham on Twitter Other tagged players: David Ortiz There is not a whole lot to like on either side in this Giants-Dodgers matchup
Cueto is a fantastic real life pitcher. He induces ground balls (50.2%) and soft contact (27.3% Hard%) with elite control and above average strikeouts (21.8%). He has the ability to pitch deep into games, which raises his floor and his ceiling, as it will occasionally allow him to get towards the double digit strikeout barrier despite the lower than ace level strikeout rate. The problem tonight is that he faces a Dodgers lineup that is loaded with left-handed bats who hit right-handed pitching well. They rank 8th in wOBA and 8th in OBP against right-handed pitching and have enough plate discipline to make Cueto work. On a different slate,Cueto might have been in play but his viability is suppressed by the upside of Fernandez and Darvish.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Julio Teheran brings a 0.93 GB/FB and 35.2 Hard% to Arizona
Julio Teheran has league average estimators (3.94 SIERA, 4.14 xFIP) with a 2.90 ERA, but if you want to believe he can suppress HRs in a big park, then run with his 3.68 FIP, but a .242 BABIP and 79.1 LOB% are holding down his ERA either way and he’s not in that big park tonight. The Diamondbacks struggle against RHP (88 wRC+, 16.1 K-BB%), but have a 34.8 Hard% and 16.7 HR/FB at home. This is not a park that will play favorably towards Teheran’s 0.93 GB/FB and 35.2 Hard% this year. In his favor, Arizona does run out seven RHBs tonight. They have just .252 wOBA against him since last season. The daily fantasy goodness in this matchup likely revolves around Jake Lamb (139 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP this season), who has struggled since the break, but does have a 35.7 Hard% over the last week. LHBs have a .349 wOBA and 34.7 Hard% against Teheran since last season with 27 HRs.
Other tagged players: Julio Teheran Rich Hill makes Dodger debut and first start in a month and a half vs Giants
Rich Hill has not pitched in a month and a half due to a blister. He’ll make his first start for the Dodgers, costing more than $9K without a rehab start against a hot offense (128 wRC+ last seven days) with a 9.4 K-BB% vs LHP. If he’s had a flaw this year when healthy, it’s been a high walk rate (9%) and that could be an issue here, further limiting his potential innings. The Giants are projected for just 3.2 runs though and Hill has held RHBs to a .251 wOBA and 28.3 Hard%, while being much better against LHBs since last season. This is not a spot where anyone seems daily fantasy viable.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Texas @ Cincinnati YELLOW/ORANGE in Kevin's late forecast
Kevin’s late weather update has one area of concern in Cincinnati, where we could see a delay with a very small risk of worse. This is, of course, and issue for Yu Darvish, one of tonight’s unquestioned top pitchers. Thankfully, there’s a strong pivot in the same price range if players felt the need to move off of him. Access your risk after reading Kevin’s full report on our Weather Page (linked below) and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Even with a low total, there are better places to look for starting pitching than Carlos Martinez
Carlos Martinez has the ability to show occasional strikeout upside, but for the most part, he relies more on his elite 56.2% ground ball rate than on his league average 20.0% strikeout rate. His control has been inconsistent this season with an 8.6% walk rate that is too high when combined with the average strikeout stuff, and has led to a 4.13 SIERA. Martinez also only has a 16.5% strikeout rate to lefties, along with a 34.6% hard-hit rate, and given that the Mets are rolling out six left-handed batters tonight, there are better places to look for starting pitching. The Mets lefties are where we want to attack Martinez, with Jay Bruce (118 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .279 ISO vs RHP), Curtis Granderson (.219 ISO vs RHP), Jose Reyes (.155 ISO vs RHP), and Kelly Johnson (127 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .202 ISO vs RHP) being the preferred option.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Jose Reyes, Kelly Johnson, Carlos Martinez Jacob deGrom struggled in his last start, but with just a 23.8 Hard% and second highest velocity this season
Jacob deGrom was unexpectedly roughed up by the Giants in his last outing. He came into the game pitching his best baseball of the season over the last month. His 94.8 mph average was his second highest velocity of the season and his SwStr% was above average with both a 23.8 Hard% and Soft% in that game. It happens. Tonight, he faces one of the top offenses against RHP in baseball (110 wRC) in St Louis. The Cardinals do strike out at an average rate and have just a 102 wRC+ at home this season. Only the top three batters have a wRC+ above 105 vs RHP this season. They are beatable. Jacob deGrom is probably tonight’s third best daily fantasy pitcher and costs less than $10K (closer to $9K on DK) after struggling last time out. Batters from either side have a wOBA below .280 against him since last season, but Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains a batter of interest for just $4.3K on DraftKings. You’ll rarely find him that cheap against a RHP.
Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter Jerad Eickhoff has allowed LHBs a .379 wOBA with 10 HRs on the road since his call up last year
While home/road splits need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially in the small sample size beginning of a young pitcher’s career, some attention has to be paid to Jerad Eickhoff’s 12.9 K-BB% on the road, 5.1 points lower than at home. He also has a large split which sees LHBs hit him much better with a .346 wOBA and 17 of his 26 career HRs allowed. LHBs on the road have a .379 wOBA and 10 HRs. Let’s look at some LH White Sox batters. Melky Cabrera (102 wRC+, .133 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Justin Morneau (120 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP this year) each cost just $2.9K on DraftKings, while Adam Eaton (123 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs right around $3.5K on either site.
Other tagged players: Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton, Jerad Eickhoff Tyler Duffey is surrendering 2.26 HR/9 to RHB
The Tigers against Tyler Duffey are one of the more intriguing matchups tonight. Duffey has decent advanced metrics with a low walk rate and a 4.07 SIERA that is significantly lower than his 5.93 ERA. He has a high .330 BABIP and 19.2% HR/FB rate, but they may not be entirely fluky, as he simply throws too many strikes at times. Duffey just doesn’t have a ton of swing and miss ability (8.4% SwStr%), or ability to induce soft contact (16.6% Hard-Soft%). Duffy is also a reverse splits pitcher, which does not set up well against this Detroit lineup. He allows more hard contact (35.9%) and more fly balls (32.8%) with lower strikeouts (16.3% K%) and higher walks to right-handed batters. The top bats here are Miguel Cabrera (149 wRC+, .394 wOBA, .250 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (153 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .249 ISO). Cameron Maybin (112 wRC+, .340 wOBA vs RHP) is an integral cog of a Tigers stack batting lead off, while the suddenly on fire Justin Upton is worth a shot in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, Tyler Duffey, Cameron Maybin