DFS Alerts
Kevin's Weather post has been updated; Texas/Oakland in the most trouble, although the bats still look safe
Check out the link below for a full weather breakdown of tonight’s games.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Duffey has a 17.3% K-BB% versus LHB
Duffey may be in consideration for some tonight as he has good control (5.6% BB%), and the matchup with Atlanta puts him in prime position to string together a solid outing and pick up the win. Duffey has flashed strikeout upside in previous starts but that is not something we should expect against the Braves as they are a decent contact lineup versus righties (19.9% K%). However, Duffey has been much better against left-handed batters posting a 20.5% K% possibly increasing his upside. The Braves are rolling out a primarily lefty lineup tonight as they usually do versus RHP but they’re actually may be more fantasy goodness to be had from Duffey tonight than initially expected given his reverse splits.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Darvis "could" be extended to 100 pitches for the first time since returning from the DL
Darvish has picked up right where he left off prior to his injury as he’s posted a 35.5% K% through five starts. His pitch count has continued to only hover around the 90-pitch plateau in his last two starts, but Darvish as still managed to record 20 strikeouts in that span. There is some hope that Darvish may see a slightly extended run in this one as Manager Jeff Bannister stated that he could hit 100 pitches depending on circumstances. So we’d have to believe if Darvish ends an inning in the ballpark of 90 pitches, there’s no way he’ll be heading out to start the next inning. A concern with Darvish is his high 10.0% BB% that can really eat into his upside given the Rangers tendency of being extra cautious with the right-hander’s innings. Despite the aforementioned pitch count and the low strikeout rate of Oakland (18.1% vs RHP), Darvish still has the highest ceiling of any pitcher on the slate making him a clear tournament play.
Shoemaker has a 15.6% SwStr% in his last 12 starts
After a couple of hiccups against some strong offenses in Boston and Baltimore, the “new” Matt Shoemaker has just continued chugging along in his last two starts. Since late-May, Shoemaker has posted a ridiculous 25.2% K-BB% leading to an elite 2.97 SIERA. For the season, Shoemaker has a respectable 24.2% K% and a low 4.8% BB% giving him a 3.59 SIERA. The biggest problem for Shoemaker throughout his career has been his propensity to give up the long ball (not this year) which shouldn’t be an issue at Kauffman Stadium. Further decreasing our concern, the Royals rank 29th in the majors in ISO versus right-handed pitching while striking out at an average 20.5% clip. Shoemaker seems to be one of the safer options on the board tonight and has the upside to compete with the other elite strikeout arms in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Cubs bats in a great spot to explode against Anthony Ranaudo
There is next to nothing good to say about White Sox starter Anthony Ranaudo. In his short MLB career he’s managed to allow a wOBA of at least .359 to both sides of the plate in addition to allowing at least a 1.93 HR/9 rate to both right and left-handed hitters. Given the fact that he can’t miss bats (5.64 K/9 vs. LHs, 2.89 K/9 vs. RHs) and allows a ton of hard contact (37.4 hard% vs. LHs, 33.7 hard% vs. RHs), he’s going to have a very hard time having any success against a very stout Cubs lineup. Ranaudo has walked nearly twice as many RH bats as he’s struck out over his MLB career and owns a 7.0 FIP against them despite a .235 BABIP, so there isn’t a Cub in the lineup that we can rule out of DFS consideration. Kris Bryant (.372 wOBA, .233 ISO vs. RHs) should be in a great spot considering Ranaudo rarely throws changeups (Bryant is hitting .060 against change-ups this year, worst in all of baseball, while Ranaudo has thrown just six of them in 2016), and Bryant’s power potential should shine through against a pitcher who struggles to generate ground balls. Anthony Rizzo is among the top overall targets of the day (.428 wOBA, .310 ISO) and is the clear cut top play at first base, so as long as you can shell out the cap space for him, do it with confidence. Dexter Fowler is still fairly priced on FanDuel at $3,400, while Miguel Montero should be a core play out of the fifth spot in the lineup. Again, all of the Cubs bats are in play here – don’t be shy with your exposure.
Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Miguel Montero, Dexter Fowler, Anthony Ranaudo Gray has elite upside in matchup with Baltimore, however, Vegas thinks otherwise
Gray (3.53 SIERA) has been stellar against both right and left-handed batters with a high strikeout rate (26.3% K%), average walks (7.8% BB%), and inducing above average ground balls (48.3% GB%). This is a tough spot to feel comfortable targeting either side as the Orioles have a much higher run projection than expected (5.1) and Gray has the stuff to shutdown this Baltimore offense. The way to play Orioles bats is to target the strength of their lineup against righties and hope they are able to get to Gray a bit. Chris Davis (.245 ISO vs RHP) has been struggling but has the power upside we are looking for and hits ground ball pitchers really well. Manny Machado (139 wRC+, .383 wOBA, .242 ISO vs RHP) has been the Orioles best hitter versus right-handed pitching and is a viable option in nearly any matchup at the shallow SS position.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Chris Davis Bundy is getting a ton of respect from Vegas as the Rockies implied run total has decreased to 3.9 runs
Bundy was once a top minor league prospect and was able to finally have a good start his last time out. It’s tough to imagine Bundy having the upside in tournaments to compete with the top arms tonight, but he is cheap around the industry and could be considered if wanting to load up on bats. The Rockies are a notoriously bad road team as they rank 28th in the majors as a team in wOBA. It’s tough to gauge the strengths and weaknesses of Bundy as the sample size of his major starts is extremely small. Camden Yards is no Coors Field but is still a great hitters park, putting the top of the Rockies order firmly in play. Carlos Gonzalez (137 wRC+, .402 wOBA, .227 ISO vs RHP), Nolan Arenado (127 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .299 ISO vs RHP), and Trevor Story (115 wRC+, .370 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP) are the top overall plays just as they typically are when Colorado finds themselves in a good spot. Top rookie prospect, David Dahl, gets the bump up to the two-hole tonight and is in play given his inexpensive salary on both sites.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, David Dahl, Dylan Bundy Pirates have a 24.1% strikeout rate versus LHP
Paxton started off his season with huge strikeout totals in his first three starts, but then they pretty much disappeared for a stretch until his fantastic outing against the Blue Jays last time out. Paxton has posted 12.1% SwStr% so it’s not all that surprising he has rediscovered his strikeout stuff. Whether or not it’s sustainable, is an entirely different story as his highest SwStr% for a substantial stretch was only 8.0% in 2014 with the Mariners. The other numbers for Paxton are merely average with a 20.9% K% and 3.78 SIERA while limiting walks (6.1% BB%) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.1% GB%). Since Paxton has clearly shown his strikeout upside in past starts, he can definitely be considered in tournaments as the Pirates have a 24.1% K% versus left-handed pitching. If targeting any Pirates hitters, David Freese (171 wRC+, .421 wOBA, .266 ISO) and Sean Rodriguez (160 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .268 ISO) would be the top options since they’ve hit lefties extrememly well this season and have the pop to be worth a one-off play in tournaments.
Other tagged players: David Freese, Sean Rodriguez Ramiro Pena scratched; Grant Green takes over at 2B and is batting 8th
Ramiro Pena scratched due to a groin injury. Grant Green will play second base and bat 8th against the Reds.
As reported by: Matthew Kawahara Other tagged players: Grant Green
Madison Bumgarner top SP option of the day
Giants SP Madison Bumgarner is the only SP on today’s slate with a projected run total of less than three runs making him the clear top option, especially in cash games, today. Bumgarner has been outstanding all season with a 3.29 SIERA and a K rate approaching 30% (it’s 28.3%). He’s excellent at home and gets a plus matchup against a Reds team that is bottom 10 in the league in wOBA and top 10 in terms of how often they K against LHP. He has the highest floor and ceiling of any SP today although there is merit to fading him in GPP’s due to how highly owned he will likely be. The Giants offense could be a sneaky option today going against Dan Straily who gives up a lot of hard, fly-ball, contact. The middle of the lineup (Posey, Crawford, and Belt) are your top options but don’t be afraid to target Gregor Blanco (leading off) or Angel Pagan (batting second) as secondary/stack options. Denard Span is sitting out today for the Giants.
As reported by: San Francisco Giants official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Gregor Blanco, Denard Span
Daunting task for the Reds as they battle Madison Bumgarner at AT&T Park
And the award for the toughest matchup of the afternoon goes to….. The Cincinnati Reds. Not only will these Cincinnati hitters have to deal with the extreme park shift created by moving from the Great American Ballpark to the spacious AT&T Park, but they’re also tasked with squaring off against the likely front runner for the NL Cy Young at the moment, Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 11 home starts this season and, considering left-handed batters own just a .174 average and .211 wOBA off of him in 2016, he completely neutralizes the dangerous bats of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton. Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez have handled their bats well against left-handed pitching, making them viable contrarian GPP plays.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Jay Bruce
Rays easy team to fade today
Tampa struggles against RHP as they are 24th in wOBA and strike out the third most of any team in MLB against them. They face Brandon McCarthy in a pitcher-friendly park today and have the second lowest run total of the afternoon slate at just over three runs. Their SP, Matt Moore, has struggled recently with a 5.15 SIERA and 15.7% K rate in his last six starts. While the Dodgers aren’t a prolific hitting team, Moore is a big underdog and not worth considering even on a small six-game afternoon slate. The same can be said for the Rays bats although you can make a contrarian argument for the LH bats of Brad Miller (batting second), Corey Dickerson (batting clean up), and Logan Morrison (batting sixth) as all three have solid ISO numbers against RHP.
As reported by: Marc Topkin on Twitter Other tagged players: Matt Moore Dodgers Take on Southpaw Matt Moore
With Matt Moore having served up an ugly 1.62 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season, Dave Roberts loads up this Dodgers lineup with righties (alongside Corey Seager and Adrian Gonzalez, of course). The Dodgers absolutely blasted Matt Moore when they saw him earlier this season; hanging seven earned runs on him in just 4.1 innings of work. However, the Dodgers happen to own an ugly .282 team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and several of their most lethal lefty killers (Kike Hernandez, Trayce Thompson, Yasiel Puig) are sidelined. Justin Turner has come out of the All-Star break absolutely sizzling at the plate; posting a .525 wOBA and .400 ISO in 51 plate appearances. With a pair of hits in each of the last five games, he needs to be on your radar. Conversely, Howie Kendrick continues to hit left-handed pitching well and slides into the leadoff spot.
Other tagged players: Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Van Slyke The Padres aim to square up R.A. Dickey's Knuckleball
The Padres don’t get much credit, but they’ve actually been putting up some decent offensive numbers lately as they own a solid .322 team wOBA thus far during the month of July. With R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball not dancing the way he’s been hoping for lately and the veteran right-hander sporting an unsightly 5.05 ERA in 11 home starts this season, the Blue Jays likely won’t be the only ones scoring runs in this game. While Wil Myers and Matt Kemp are fine options as usual, with left-handers owning a .363 wOBA off of Dickey this season, you can also target Travis Jankowski and the red hot duo of Alex Dickerson (home runs in three straight games) and Ryan Schimpf (four home runs in his last eight games). Yangervis Solarte and Derek Norris both get the afternoon off.
Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Ryan Schimpf The Red Sox represent Michael Fulmer's toughest test yet.
As the centerpiece of Detroit’s haul for Yoenis Cespedes last season, Michael Fulmer has paid immediate dividends for the Tigers as he’s posted a 2.41 ERA through 15 starts with his new team. However, he has the most daunting task on the board as he’ll face a Boston team that leads MLB in both team wOBA since the All-Star break (.354 wOBA) as well as against right-handed pitching (.356 wOBA). It’s more important than ever for Fulmer to keep the ball down in the strike zone tonight (50.4% GB%) as Fenway Park is clearly more dangerous for pitchers than the spacious Comerica Park. David Ortiz is once again the premier option here as he launched his 25th home run of the season last night and owns a ridiculous.464 wOBA against right-handed this season. Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Xander Bogaerts and the other usual suspects are all fine plays as well. Hanley Ramirez will get some well needed rest with Aaron Hill drawing the start in his place.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley