DFS Alerts
Weather update for The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Weather is often a hot topic for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It’s not uncommon to see wind and or rain dictate play on any given day during the week. This week, however, it looks like there is little to no edge in handicapping the weather, as players should face similar conditions throughout the week. Kevin Roth’s forecast is up in the main forum and it looks like the PGA Tour will see 4 days of sunny weather with very little wind. Remember that tee times for the first three days are in a 2-hour window across three different courses, so if there is a change to the weather it will be the same for everyone in the field. Spyglass Hills typically plays as the hardest of the three courses during this tournament, so if the weather were to change players on that course during the weather would have the toughest draw, but for now, everything looks great. Rosters lock in a little over an hour, so make sure to get any last minute edits done prior to 11:00 EST.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report
Jon Rahm could get over looked this week
With five players currently ranked inside the top 10 in the world teeing up at this week’s Pebble Beach Open, there is plenty of debate in which stud to choose for your DFS rosters. Currently projected to have the lowest ownership of the top five priced players in the field, Jon Rahm has a chance to be a sneaky low owened option for this week’s event. With a chance to win both the Famers and the Waste Management, Rahm struggled to play well during both final rounds. Many might interpret this poor Sunday play as a bad thing, but the fact that he keeps putting himself in a position to win is a valuable learning tool. While motivation is a hard thing to handicap, there is no denying his current hot streak. If Rahm were to win this week, and Dustin Johnson was to finish outside the top 46, then he would claim the number one spot in the world. Rahm is tied for second in the field with his 9.1 percent odds to win and remains a great option for all formats this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Chesson Hadley ranks as a top play on FanDuel
Due to a tighter pricing structure, FanDuel rosters will have a completely different feel than DraftKings this week. With little or no obvious value plays rosters this week on FanDuel should look and feel a bit more balanced. One such player who should be considered for this type of roster build is Chesson Hadley. Playing with an extreme amount of confidence, Hadley sits near the top in terms of Pt/$/K in our FanDuel projections model. Hadley’s fifth-place finish at last week’s Waste Managment Open was his fourth top five or better finish this season. Playing again on the PGA Tour after having to earn his card via the Web.com Tour, Hadley appears back on track to challenge for his second career victory. Hadley will make his fourth appearance at The ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week and is looking to build on his back to back top ten finishes in 2014 and 2015.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Adam Scott looks to bounce back from poor 2017 season
The game of golf can change in such a hurry. World class players like Adam Scott know all too well what it’s like to have tasted both success and failure. Normally a perennial top ten ranked golfer in the world, Scott currently sits outside the top 40 in the official world golf rankings. Just a short two years ago, Scott won the WGC Cadillac and the Honda in back to back weeks and appeared ready to reassert himself as one of the top players in the game. Unfortunately for Scott that was not the case, as poor play began to take shape last season forcing him to miss the FedEx Cup finals for only the second time in the last 10 years. When Scott struggles you can usually look at his inability to hole putts, and last season was no exception. Determined to turn things around Scott has tinkered with the putting style used by Bernhard Langer and Scott McCarron. As a former user of the now banned anchor putting stroke, Scott saw the success that both senior tour players had when using a long putter that was not anchored to the body. It remains to be seen if Scott uses that method this week, as he has not competed since the Australian PGA Championship last November. Scott enters this week as very intriguing GPP play in terms of an ownership pivot. Currently projected to have an ownership number less than 10%, Scott could make a great pivot off the popular Pat Perez at the same price point. Scott has not played this event in the last seven years but should have the skill set needed to play well this week. Known as one of the better ball strikers on tour, Scott could really play well this week if he gets a few putts to fall. When you combine the potential of low ownership with the possibility of a very high ceiling, Scott becomes a very compelling GPP play for this week’s ATT Pebble Beach Open.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Paul Casey set to make his 2018 PGA Tour debut
With 32 of the top 100 players in the world in attendance this week, The Pebble Beach Pro-Am has a really strong field. Currently ranked in the 17th position in the world golf rankings, Paul Casey is making his 2018 PGA Tour debut this week. Casey made a bit of news in the offseason by committing to playing the European Tour more this season in order to earn full member status thus making him eligible for the Ryder Cup. Over the last three seasons, Casy has averaged 22 starts on the PGA Tour, so one could speculate that he might play a few fewer events in order to fulfill his obligations across the pond. Making his first appearance at Pebble Beach in over a decade, Casey could fly under the radar a bit this week. Known as a great ball striker, Casey ranks out as a top pick in our Weekly Course Analysis article and provides a nice pivot play off other popular golfers in his price range. While Casey’s appearance in this event he normally does not play in seems a bit odd, it could be that he is just making adjustments to his schedule moving forward. The ability to hit accurate golf shots is always an advantage at the courses in play this week, and Pebble Beach in particular features greens that are a bit smaller than normal. With a game built around hitting accurate golf shots and more importantly solid iron play, Casey is a sneaky fit for this week’s event. Many in the field this week may overlook Casey’s excellent track record over the last three seasons due to his lack of course history, but with 24 top 10’s in his last 68 PGA Tour starts, there is a great opportunity to roster a tremendous player at potentially lower than expected ownership.
As reported by: PGA Weekly Course Analysis Maverick McNealy looking to make the most of his sponsor's invite
With status already guaranteed on the Web.com Tour, Maverick McNealy will try to make the most of his seven sponsor’s invites to secure a PGA Tour card. This super talented former college standout finished T29 in his last start at the Farmer’s and appears to be gaining confidence in his game. McNealy is in the field this week via a sponsor’s exemption and is in a prime spot to keep the momentum going in terms of getting a tour card. McNealy’s excellent track record as an amateur allowed him to experience PGA tour golf prior to turning pro. With the exception of the three major’s, he competed in McNealy is seven for nine in made cuts on the tour, and is starting to look more and more comfortable playing with the biggest names in the game. Stars and scrubs lineups should be in play this week, and McNealy is a great option for this type of build. The guaranteed three rounds take some pressure off young players like McNealy, and I look for him to play well this week. McNealy played golf at Standford and should have a bit of experience on all three courses used in the rotation.
As reported by: PGA Value Breakdown Rafael Cabrera Bello ranks as a top play in value rankings
The DraftKings pricing algorithm for this week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am has left many in the industry scratching our heads. One such player that stands out as an obvious value is Rafael Cabrera Bello. This 21st ranked golfer in the world has somehow found his way into the sub 7k price range on DraftKings this week and should end up as one of the more popular plays of the week. This part-time multi-tour player has already posted 3 top 15 or better finishes to start his 2018 PGA season, and also has a T6 at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic a few weeks ago. It’s pretty easy to see why Cabrera Bello holds down the number one spot in our third tier DraftKings rankings this week, as he is clearly a player that deserves a higher price moving forward.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings Patrick Reed is a popular play amongst experts this week
Winless since the 2016 season, this one-time self-proclaimed top 5 player in the world has struggled to find the form that made him a hero in the 2016 Ryder Cup. With 15 top 25 or better finishes in 29 starts, Reed was able to finish in the 22nd position in the 2017 FedEx Cup race. Driven to be one of the best players in the world, Reed exudes an arrogance that can often rub people the wrong way. Often priced higher than most wanted to pay, Reed spent much of last season as a low owned option for DFS roster builds. Through six starts this PGA season that trend continues as Reed has failed to crack the 13 % ownership barrier at any point this season. The combination of a price drop and great recent form has begun to turn the tide on Reed for this week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In his last two starts on tour, Reed has been near the lead after 36 holes and returns to a tournament where he is five for five in made cuts with all of his finishes inside the top 30. Reed’s appearance in our expert survey represents the shift in support for this talented player. With a price that is too low in comparison to his current form, Reed makes a great play in all formats this week.
As reported by: Expert Survey Rory McIlroy set to make his 2018 PGA debut
Rory Mcllroy is one of the few players in the game that considers a season with 8 top 25 finishes and over two million in earnings a failure. Plagued by injuries and inconsistent play Mcllroy struggled last season but is now healthy and ready to reinsert himself as one of the top players in the game. Currently ranked 8th in the world, McIlroy looks very eager to play his way back into the form that saw him win the 2016 FedEx Cup. With back to back top 3 finishes in his last two starts on the European Tour, McIlroy comes into this week in excellent form. This former number ranked player in the world will make his first appearance in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and will play alongside his dad Gerry this week. With a few bigger names scheduled to compete this week, ownership could spread out amongst the top five priced players in the field. Currently ranked as the third golfer in the group according to ownership projections, Mcllroy makes for a great play in all formats this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership DraftKings projections are live and Austin Cook ranks as a top play
Projections are live for The Pebble Beach Pro-Am are live and Austin Cook ranks near the top in terms of Pt/$/K on DraftKings. With all the early week buzz surrounding some questionable pricing on DraftKings, it’s no surprise to see Mr. Cook near the top of the projections this week in terms of points per dollar. Since the start of the season, Cook has been on absolute fire. In addition to his victory at the RSM Classic, this PGA tour rookie has posted only one finish outside the top 35 in his 8 starts this season. Priced as high as $8,700 a few weeks ago Cook stands out as an obvious value for this week. With a guaranteed three rounds of golf in this Pro-Am format Cook should have an easier time paying off his salary this week. There is always an argument to make for a first timer to struggle in an event in which uses a three-course rotation, as it’s hard for a new player to get in time on each of the courses prior to Thursday’s opening round. At this year’s Carrer Builder Challange, Cook was able to overcome the same set of variables on his way to a top 15 finish. Pricing will be a popular item of discussion this week, and the combination of his recent performance with a decreased price makes this a great spot to fire up Cook in your rosters.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Weather update for The Waste Management Open
Kevin Roth has his weather report for this week’s event in the main forum, and for now, we can cross weather off our list in terms of building DFS rosters. With extremely quiet weather forecasted for Scottsdale, this week weather should have a very little impact in terms of handicapping the tee time waves.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Ryan Moore set to make his 2018 debut
Ryan Moore entered the 2017 PGA tour season fresh off one of his best seasons on tour. Fueled by a spectacular fall finish that saw Moore nearly win the FedEx Cup and compete in his first Ryder Cup. At this point in the 2017 season, Moore had his sites on keeping his momentum going. Unfortunately for Moore, injuries kept him from playing his best golf in 2017. Pain and poor play forced Moore to rest his shoulder for the majority of the summer. After nearly two months away from the game, Moore was able to finish the season strong by posting 4 top 30 or better finishes in his last six events. Fully healthy and ready to return to a full schedule Moore played 3 events over the fall swing and is set to make his 2018 debut at this week’s Waste Managment Open. The lack of playing time has Moore flying under the radar this week as he has one of the lowest projections in the mid-tier range. In 12 attempts at the Waste Managment Open, Moore has made ten cuts including six top 25 or better finishes. Known for his ability to hit accurate golf shots, Moore has the type of game that should fair well this week and will make for an interesting pivot play in large field GPPS this week. Moore is 49 under par in his last 32 rounds at the TPC Scottsdale.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Kevin Na is in the mix as a ranked low tier value play this week
Much like Keegan Bradley, the thought of rostering a player like Kevin Na creates an uneasy feeling among most in the DFS world. Known for his slow play and strange demeanor, Na at times can be an easy player to root against. With only one career PGA Tour victory under his belt, Na has made a steady but not spectacular living playing professional golf. Coming into this week, Na has played five events this season and made four cuts. With four top 50 or better finishes, Na plays the style of golf that often does not hurt you, but at the same time does not help win any large field GPP’s. Priced accordingly this week, Na has the type of course history that could make a difference as a value play. In addition to being 57 under par over his last 8 rounds at TPC Scottsdale, Na has finished inside the top 30 five of the last six years. At $6,900 Na makes for a great source of value in GPP roster builds. Currently also projected for low ownership, Na could be a great leverage play off others in this same price range.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings Keegan Bradley ranks as a top play on FanDuel
Over the years Bradley has gotten a bad rap in the golf community. His fidgety preshot routine combined with sporadic play made him an easy player to avoid on most weeks. It’s so easy to get caught up on a basis and not notice when things change, and since June of last season, Bradley has been a different golfer. Currently ranked 64 in the world, Bradley finished the 2017 season by making 10 straight cuts while posting 4 top 30 or better finishes. Bradley’s good play has carried over to this season as he has made 4 out of 5 cuts and posted two top tens including a T5 at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. The combination of his new found form and his still somewhat decreased price has Bradley ranked near the top in terms of Pt/$/K in our FanDuel projections model. Bradley appears to have turned the corner on his golf game, and he returns to a venue where he is 4 for 6 in cuts made with 4 top 25 or better finishes. While the thought of rostering Bradley is never an easy thing, his recent play merits consideration in your roster builds this week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Kyle Stanley returns to the site of his first PGA Tour Victory
Stanley burst onto the scene with a win at the 2012 Waste Management open. In addition to his win, Stanley posted 8 top 25 finishes and was able to enjoy a season in which he eclipsed earnings in excess of two million dollars. Stanley followed up his 2012 season with another million dollar campaign, but like many other players before him, the search for his second career win would begin to take a toll on his game. Multiple seasons of missed cuts and inconsistent play left this one-time PGA Tour winner fighting to keep his status on tour. The 2017 season echoed change for Stanley, and in addition to his win at the Quicken Loans National, he was able to post 12 top 25 or better finishes in 29 starts. Currently ranked 30th in this year’s FedEx Cup standings and with 4 top 25 or better finishes in his six starts, Stanley looks to find the magic that found him in the winners circle some six years ago. With current ownership projections in single digit numbers, Stanley becomes an interesting play in almost any format this week. This great ball striker is six for six in cuts made this year, and at the least should play well enough to make the cut thus giving himself a chance to pay off his salary. If Stanley were to hole a few more putts this week, he would become the type of player that could really boost your roster at a discounted price.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership