DFS Alerts
Young Phenom Primed for a Breakout Win
Niemann is another young phenom that is looking for his first win on the PGA Tour. He was the number one amateur coming out of college and made some noise right away last summer. He struggled with his game in the spring, but has clearly fixed whatever was ailing him. If we throw out the missed cut at The Open (he was a late add and has very little links experience), he has made 10 straight cuts with two top fives and no finish worse than T31. He’s ranked in the top 10 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, and birdie or better percentage. Bentgrass is by far his best putting surface and that’s what is featured on the greens here at the Old White TPC. He has already played here two times, posting finishes of T29 and T5. He basically checks all of the boxes this week — form, talent, course fit, and course history.
A Win is on the Horizon
It would have been a travesty if Hovland wasn’t able to get a PGA Tour card in the Korn Ferry Tour finals. Luckily, he played well enough in the first two that he didn’t even need to tee it up for the finale. He will forever be compared to Matthew Wolfe and Collin Morikawa, but I’ve got my money on Hovland being the best of the three. He’s the most consistent ball striker of the three, he just needs to make small improvements with his short game. Look at his statistics in this week’s field — he’s ranked first in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, greens in regulation, and birdie or better percentage. I will be betting Hovland and playing him in DFS early and often this season because it’s only a matter of time before he gets his first win. Before the Korn Ferry Tour finals, he posted four straight top 16 finishes in some very good fields on the PGA Tour. In my humble opinion, he’s the most talented golfer in this field and that might not even be a hot take at this point.
Johnson Wagner in need of a good week
The lengthened wrap around season should have a big impact on The PGA Tour moving forward. With more events in the fall players in need of a good start to the season will have a few more chances to do so before the calendar year ends. In this week’s field on a less than desirable status ( 126 to 150 on last years FedEx Cup points list), Johnson Wagner will look to post a solid start to his season with hopes of improving his reshuffle number. Due to his status on tour, Wagner will have a very limited ability to pick what weeks he plays, so a fast start is almost a must for this PGA Tour veteran. The good news for Wagner is that he has historically played well at this event. In addition to his runner up finish during the 2013 season, Wagner has gained 14 shots tee to green over his last five starts at this event. Priced-down due to his less than stellar recent form, Wagner stands out as one of the better value plays in our projection model for the week. With the new top 65 cut rule, it will be more important to have value plays that can do more than just make the cut. You should look at upside more when picking from the value pool. As a 3 time winner on tour, Wanger has the experience and upside needed to be considered in terms of value and upside for the week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool
Solid Value
If you want to build stars and scrubs lineups this week, I have three picks for you. It makes sense to target some of these golfers, as I don’t think they are that much worse than golfers who are priced $1,000 to $1,500 above them on FD/DK and $2,000 above them on FDRAFT. Let’s start with Stefani. He didn’t have the greatest 2018-2019 season with just 14 cuts made in 24 starts, but he closed out the year with six consecutive paydays. He has been a staple at this event, making the cut in four of the last five editions. He quietly jumped up the ranks in ball striking (39th) and approach play (30th) in the latter stages of last year, and the current form and course history make him a great value proposition here.
Elite Contrarian Play
The sites did a solid job of pricing Scheffler up this week, and that should keep his ownership down. Casual players aren’t familiar with him, and he will simply be a golfer that a lot of people overlook at these salaries. Scheffler has a great golf game and finished third on the Korn Ferry Tour money list a year ago. He will fit right in on the PGA Tour with an elite all-around game, and he made cuts in all three non-major PGA Tour evens that he started in 2018-2019. All three of those went for top 45 finishes, so it’s not like he will be out of place in a relatively weak field Tour event. For what it’s worth, he is close to a must-play for me at that $10,200 FanDuel salary.
My Pick to Win
This guy is simply something special. After just missing out on securing his PGA Tour card in only a handful of summer starts, Hovland breezed through the Korn Ferry Tour finals in order to secure his spot. He finished his summer with four consecutive top 16 finishes, and he leads the Tour in ball striking over the last year (though he didn’t have enough rounds to get on the official leaderboards). Even though he hasn’t played this course before, he’s a perfect fit for the layout, and I expect him to contend. The talent level is through the roof, and it’s only a matter of time before he is hoisting the hardware. In fact, Hovland is my pick to do just that here at the Greenbrier. With his card secure, he should play with a lot of confidence and swagger.
Kevin Chappell set to return to The PGA Tour
After missing the majority of the 2019 season due to back surgery Kevin Chappell is set to make his return to The PGA Tour this week. This one-time Presidents Cup member did not play at all this year until last month. Looking to test out his game, Chappell played in two Korn Ferry tour events last month. Chappell made the cut in both events he played finishing outside the top 50 each time. With a few more events added to the wrap around season, players like Chappell will look to get an early start on the 2020 season. Playing in his seventh Military Tribute at The Greenbrier, Chappell has some decent course history with 3 top 30 or better finishes in five made cuts. Hopefully healthy, Chappell can begin to work his way back to playing the level of golf prior to his injury.
Ten Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report
There is no major news to report ahead of the final event of the season. The biggest decision of the week in terms of roster builds is what to do with Justin Thomas. Starting with a lead over the field, Thomas has one of the biggest price bumps for the week. As you finish up your lineup build for the week remember that you can leave way more money on the table than you are used to in a normal event. With only 30 players in the field, there will be a high chance of duplicate lineups. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Dustin Johnson is flying under the radar this week
Starting the week seven shots behind the lead, Dustin Johnson has almost become the forgotten golfer this week. With his projected ownership numbers dropping almost 20% since the start of the week, it appears most in the community are ready to give up on Johnson. WIth spotty form over his last few starts, it’s easy to make a case for marking this former number one golfer in the world off your list. The decrease in price combined with the drop in projected ownership makes this a great spot to buy low on a golfer that can makeup strokes in a hurry. Even without a win, Johnson could easily play well enough to get into the top 3, which would make him a top play at his price for the week. Back with his old swing coach and motivated to finish the season strong, Johnson seems like the perfect golfer you want in terms of chasing the lead.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Rory McIlroy looks to build on an excellent course history
If it were not for the new FedEx Cup format Rory Mcllroy would most likely enter the week as the golfer most picked to win at East Lake. With a win and two top ten or better starts in his last four appearances at East Lake, Mcllroy has one of the best course histories of anyone in this field. Starting five shots behind McIlroy will be one of the more popular chasers of Justin Thomas this week. Having gained an average of almost six shots tee to green in his last four starts at The Tour Championship McIlroy certainly has the game to make up ground on the field this week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Lucas Glover returns to East Lake for the first time in ten years
Just a few short years ago this former U.S. Open Champion had to return to the Web.Com Tour in order to regain his status on the PGA Tour. Fueled by a new putting style Glover will return to East Lake for the first time since the 2009 season. Glover closed out one of the final spots in the field by playing well at last week’s BMW Championship. Starting 10 shots behind the leader, Glover still stands out as a great source of value for the week. Always known for his ability to hit a golf ball, Glover will rely on his ability to gain strokes tee to green to claw his way back into the tournament. If his putter continues to stay hot Glover could end up being on the top point per dollar golfers for the week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Firepower to Make up Ground Quickly
I originally had Justin Thomas listed as a core play, but I’m doing a 180 on that take. He’s still viable in MME and still a decent option on FanDuel given the soft pricing. However, with the big discount that we get with McIlroy, I’m adding him as a core play for the week. He’s number one in this field in strokes gained off the tee, bogey avoidance, and birdie or better percentage. He’s a good bermuda putter and he has a tremendous record at East Lake including a win back in 2016. He has the firepower to make up strokes quickly, especially over the course of four rounds. The best part is that using Rory over JT will make the rest of your lineup look so much better.
Byrson DeChambeau provides plenty of upside at a discount
From a narrative standpoint, it could be hard to get behind a player like Bryson DeCambeau for the last event of the PGA Tour season. With the slow play issue still somewhat in the forefront, it will be interesting to see if DeCambeau can just focus on playing golf moving forward. DeCambeau is another golfer priced down due to his last place starting position. Gaining a sense of how we value golfers in this new format will be an interesting process. One of the things you can do this week is to look at the pricing difference between two players based upon their starting position. While DeChambeau is only two shots behind Brandt Snedeker, he is 1800 dollars cheaper in DK pricing. The difference in starting points from 16 to 26th is only five points. When you look at five points over the course of four rounds I think it really becomes easy to make up that scoring deficit. Since there is only a 3 shot difference between the golfers at the bottom and those outside the top six, you could make a case for tiring to handicap talent instead of just starting position alone. Still, a very talented golfer, DeChambeau as one of the cheapest golfers in this field making him a value play worth considering for the week.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Even at a discount Charles Howell is currently projected towards a low ownership number
With the new format of this year’s Tour Championship, we can basically say that the tournament has started before golfers even tee it up on Thursday. With players assigned a starting score based upon FedEx Cup standings, daily fantasy sites have adjusted prices in order to accommodate the new format. Starting at even-par Charles Howell will have to overcome a 10 shot deficit if he hopes to win the Tour Championship. Priced at 5k on DK Howell currently garnishes the lowest projected ownership of the week. Only 4 shots out of finishing in the sixth place position ( 12 DK points), Howell feels both underpriced and overlooked for the week. With four guaranteed rounds of golf, a 5k golfer would have to play pretty bad to not exceed his value for the week. It’s hard to compare golf to any other DFS sport, but if you look at pricing vs opportunity, Howell should be considered a better play than he currently projects.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Defending FedEx Cup Champion stands out as a top value play
Despite playing his best golf Justin Rose has an outside chance of repeating as FedEx Cup Champion. Starting the week 8 shots behind leader Justin Thomas, Rose will find himself in the precarious spot of playing near-perfect golf in order to contend on the weekend. Priced at a discount due to his starting position Rose stands out as one of the top value golfers in this week’s field. Having gained almost 23 shots in his last four starts at East Lake, Rose seems to like this track and could end up being a difference-maker for the week. Only a few shots out of a top-five type finish, a priced down Rose makes sense in a wide variety of roster builds for the final event of the 2019 season.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool