10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 19th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Saturday, August 19th.
1. It’s getting to the point in the season that it’s almost pointless to make a lengthy, well-reasoned argument about why Chris Sale is a great play. Even against a Yankees team with some dangerous bats, he’s the unquestioned top play of Saturday’s main slate. But the point of this article is to dig up interesting stats, so, without further adieu:
—With several starts still ahead of him, Chris Sale currently has 241 strikeouts in 2017. The last Red Sox pitcher to record 241+ strikeouts over an entire season was Pedro Martinez (284) in 2000. Sale is also carrying a remarkable 1.92 FIP; of the nine seasons all-time in which Red Sox pitchers have notched 241+ strikeouts, only one of them had a FIP below Sale’s current mark (Pedro in 1999 with 313 strikeouts, 1.39 FIP).
—He’s not just racking up strikeouts; he’s also limiting damage. Since the All-Star break, Sale’s .183 xFIP is by far the best in MLB (min. 100 ABs). Danny Salazar ranks a distant second at .231, and the 0.48 gap between Sale and Salazar is the roughly the same gap that exists between Salazar and Jake Arrieta (.278 xwOBA), who ranks 23rd on that list.
—Sale has faced the Yankees three times as a member of the Red Sox, and he’s recorded 12, 13, and 10 strikeouts in those games; he accounts for three of the 11 games in which a pitcher has recorded 10+ strikeouts against the Yankees this year.
2. Zack Greinke has recorded eight or more strikeouts in four consecutive games (and in some really tough matchups against the Astros, Dodgers, Cubs, and Cardinals); the last time he fanned eight or more in four straight was way back in April of 2014. Facing a mostly average Twins team (their wRC+ against RHP is at 100, which is about as average as you can get), Greinke’s has the superior matchup to Sale’s. But even despite Greinke’s newfound strikeout ability and the better matchup, it’s very tough to justify paying top dollar for him over Sale, which I suppose makes him an interesting tournament play. The odds of him outscoring Sale aren’t high, but if he can manage keep it close (which is certainly a possibility), the massive savings of using him over Sale ($2,400 at DraftKings, $1,700 at FanDuel) makes him a bit more interesting.
3. Since July 1st, Kevin Gausman has had five games of 8+ strikeouts; in April, May, and June combined, he had two such games. He had six games of 8+ strikeouts in all of 2016. I’ve written about Gausman’s increased usage of his two-seam fastball and correspondent strikeout increase (since he started throwing the pitch on June 16th, his strikeout rate has gone from 14.2% prior to that date to 29.1% after), and I’ve written about Gausman’s preference for having Caleb Joseph behind the plate (3.13 ERA, .689 OPS, 26.5% K rate with Joseph catching, compared to a 7.30 ERA, .993 OPS, 15.8% K rate with Welington Castillo behind the plate). And while Gausman struggled a bit in his last start against the Angels on August 9th (5 ⅓ IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 6 K), I’m willing to go back to the well, particularly at DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where he’s underpriced ($8,500/$16,500). The matchup suits Gausman, as the Angels are largely right-handed, and Gausman has dominated righties as of late, posting a .238 wOBA and 31.4% K rate against them since the All-Star break.
4. Jerad Eickhoff throws his curveball over 30 percent of the time to both lefties and righties, and he’s allowed just a .192 xwOBA on the pitch, a mark which is beaten by only the curveballs of Corey Kluber, Ivan Nova, and Charlie Morton (min. 100 ABs). Against curveballs this year, the San Francisco Giants rank 28th in wOBA (.228) and 29th in ISO (.079). It’s the same old story with the Giants: they present one of the “safest” matchups on the board for the opposing pitcher (particularly with Eickhoff getting the massive park upgrade to AT&T Park) while also presenting little strikeout upside. For that reason, Eickhoff makes more sense as an SP2 in cash games than as a standalone play at FanDuel or as a tournament play.
5. Of the 99 pitchers with 100 innings pitched in the past calendar year, Derek Holland ranks 98th in xFIP (5.58), 94th in hard hits (38.0%), and is tied for last in wOBA (.377). With Jered Weaver now retired, there’s a job opening for “Worst Pitcher in Baseball Who Somehow Keeps Getting Innings,” and Holland might be the frontrunner for the position. This is a worst-case-scenario matchup for Holland, as he’s a fly ball pitcher in a hitter’s park in the Texas heat. And what’s more, the Rangers have been hot: over the past 30 days, they’re tied for first in MLB with 48 home runs, and they rank third in wOBA (.353), second in ISO (.213), and second in wRC+ (117). This will not go well for Mr. Holland. So which Texas bats should be high priorities?
6. Start with Adrian Beltre, who has not had a wOBA below .393 against left-handed pitchers in any season since 2013. Beltre has consistently been one of the best hitters against left-handed pitching throughout his career, and it’s not just on-base skills he possesses; he hits for power, as well, while rarely striking out. Since 2015, he has a .238 ISO and a sub-11.0% strikeout rate against lefties; no other qualified hitter can make that claim. Beltre, like the other Rangers righties, will be chalky options on Saturday, but the upside is immense.
7. With a .466 ISO, Bryce Harper leads all MLB hitters (min. 80 PA) against fly ball pitchers this year. No surprise there. The player in second place on that list might be a bit more unexpected. It’s Robinson Chirinos, with a .413 ISO against fly ball pitchers in 2017. If you extend the sample and go back to 2016, Chirino’s .368 ISO is the best in baseball. If you go back to 2015, he ranks eighth with a .333 ISO, just a few ticks below Giancarlo Stanton (.333). Derek Holland allows fly balls a high 42.9% of the time to right-handed batters, which should work in Chirinos’ favor. And while Chirinos typically bats at the bottom of the order, that lineup spot could actually lead to lower ownership, and if he’s batting ninth, opens the door for a wrap-around stack with Chirinos and the top of the Rangers’ order.
8. Don’t sleep on the White Sox side of this game, particularly Jose Abreu, who has quietly been mashing left-handed pitching all year. He’s one of four players, joining Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen, and Justin Turner, with a .440+ wOBA and 42.0%+ hard hit rate against southpaws. Abreu hits the ball on the ground a little more often than is ideal for his position (45.2% ground ball rate in 2017), which is why he’s been a more effective hitter against fly ball hitters throughout his career (128 tOPS+ vs. fly ball pitchers, 90 tOPS+ vs. ground ball pitchers). But while Perez’s claim to fame in DFS used to be his frustrating ability to induce grounders to batters from both sides of the plate, this year his ground ball rate against righties has dipped to 42.9% (from 52.8% last year). Abreu should have no trouble lifting the ball against Perez, and he’s an excellent point-per-dollar play, as he’s underpriced across the industry for this matchup.
9. In his first season in Atlanta’s SunTrust Field, Freddie Freeman is crushing right-handed pitching with a 1.137 OPS through 242 plate appearances. The only Braves player with a higher OPS against righties over a full season (min. 242 PA) was Chipper Jones in 2007 (1.171). A matchup with Cincinnati’s Robert Stephenson and his career .401 wOBA makes Freeman one of the top overall plays of the day, particularly at DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary feels just a bit too cheap.
10. Only four qualified hitters have a .400 wOBA and 40.0% hard hits against right-handed pitching this year: Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, and Travis Shaw. Unlike last season, in which he sputtered (to put it kindly) in the second half, Shaw has remained effective well after the All-Star break. While his increasing strikeout rate is a bit worrisome (21.1% K rate in the first half, 27.6% in the second half), that shouldn’t be much of an issue against Chad Bettis, who has a low 16.6% strikeout rate against lefties for his career. The Coors Field game today (surprise, surprise) has an over/under of 12 runs, which means fitting in Coors bats is (surprise, surprise) a top priority. Shaw is one of the top overall plays of the day.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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