10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 5th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Saturday, August 5th.
1. Gerrit Cole has six games of 8+ strikeouts this season, including his last start, in which he went seven strong innings against the Padres, fanning eight and allowing just one earned run. How many eight-strikeout games did Cole have last season? Not one. While his overall numbers show only modest improvement in the strikeout department (19.4 K% in 2016, 21.4 K% in 2017), Cole has managed to take advantage of some favorable matchups against high-strikeout teams (four of his six games with 8+ strikeouts came against the Brewers, Padres, and Phillies, all of whom rank in the bottom six in MLB in K% against right-handed pitching). Installed as a big -170 favorite at home, Cole is an excellent cash game option on a slate lacking in any high-end aces.
2. However, if ownership on Cole begins to get out of control, he can be (should be?) faded in tournaments. Why? Below are the top five teams in MLB in ISO since the All-Star break:
Nationals (.238)
Cubs (.221)
Rockies (.211)
Padres (.208)
Dodgers (.203)
The Padres have the fourth-highest ISO in the second half, even better than the Dodgers’ .203 mark. While it seems unlikely that San Diego puts up a big run total in pitcher-friendly PNC Park, Cole is far from a can’t-miss pitcher; he’s given up seven earned runs on three occasions this year, in fact. With the abundance of interesting mid-tier options available (Danny Salazar, Drew Pomeranz, Luis Castillo, Danny Duffy, Charlie Morton), there are plenty of places to fade the chalk (shoutout to Andy Selby!) at pitcher in tournaments.
3. In his last start, Danny Salazar threw 97 pitches and posted a 23.7% swinging strike rate, the highest mark of any single game in his career. In fact, that was just the seventh time this season that a pitcher reached 23.7% swinging strikes on 97 pitches or more, and the other names he’s joined with on that list – Scherzer, Darvish, Rodon, Greinke, deGrom (twice) – should reinforce Salazar’s elite strikeout upside. On Saturday, his matchup leaves a little to be desired, as he takes on a Yankees team that ranks third in wOBA (.340), eighth in ISO (.189), and second in wRC+ (112) against right-handed pitching. But the Yankees have been scuffling, ranking 25th in wRC+ (95) since the All-Star break, and showing their vulnerability against high-strikeout arms by allowing Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber to combine for 18 strikeouts in this series. Salazar doesn’t come without risk, but he’s fairly priced across the industry and has immense strikeout upside in this matchup.
4. Since June 23rd, one pitcher has posted a 57.0%+ ground ball rate and a 26.0% strikeout rate (min. 30 IP). It’s not Clayton Kershaw, or Alex Wood, or Lance McCullers. It’s Cincinnati rookie Luis Castillo. And even better, he’s put up those numbers while maintaining an elite 27.0% hard hit rate. On Saturday, Castillo will make the ninth start of his big-league career at home against the St. Louis Cardinals. Great American Ball Park is always going to be a hindrance to Reds pitchers, and Castillo is no exception – there’s a chance he, like any Reds pitcher, gives up a homer or two any time he takes the mound simply because of the park’s dimensions. But Castillo’s rare combination of high strikeouts and high ground balls has, up to this point, mostly offset the negative home ballpark. The Cardinals are a middle-of-the-road offense against righties on the year, ranking 15th in wOBA (.321), 18th in ISO (.163), 17th in wRC+ (95), and 14th in K% (21.9%). However, Castillo’s 29.0% K rate against righties is appealing against this right-heavy lineup (Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, and Greg Garcia were the only lefties to crack the lineup last night). The ballpark makes Castillo a bit risky for cash games, but he continues to be an elite tournament option.
5. One more Castillo note: since being called up to MLB on June 23rd, he’s allowed just four barrels in 809 pitches (and for those unfamiliar, a “barrel” is a Statcast term given to balls hit with essentially the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle), or one every 0.49 percent of pitches thrown. That’s the lowest percentage in MLB during that span (min. 750 pitches). And just for comparison’s sake, consider this: in 33 fewer pitches, Chris Sale has also allowed just four barrels during that stretch.
6. Of the 52 pitchers who have recorded 30 innings pitched since July 4th, Lance Lynn has the third-best ERA at 1.47. During that same stretch, Lynn’s xFIP (which attempts to strip out the good or bad luck as a result of HR/FB rate, defense, etc.) sits at a hefty 4.60, which ranks 42nd of that group, just barely ahead of Ubaldo Jimenez (4.63). Lynn’s 17.0% strikeout rate ranks 44th of that group. While it’s true that Lynn has played a part in his success – he’s inducing just 27.1% hard hits, for one thing – this is a textbook example of why ERA alone cannot be trusted when projecting forward for a pitcher. Lynn is a road underdog against Luis Castillo, and he gets a massive negative park shift in moving to Great American Ball Park. Regression is coming for Lynn, and it could start on Saturday.
7. Since 2013, 176 hitters have at least 400 plate appearances against ground ball pitchers since 2013. Take a look at how Corey Dickerson ranks in some notable stats:
BA – 6th (.339)
SLG% – 2nd (.596)
OPS – 7th (.976)
ISO – 6th (.257)
Dickerson has long been a hitter who prefers ground ball pitching, and that hasn’t changed this year, as his .474 wOBA against pitches on the bottom part of the plate ranks third in MLB behind only Salvador Perez (.541) and Anthony Rizzo (.475). This is significant because on Saturday, he faces Milwaukee ground ball righty Zach Davies. He’ll likely bat leadoff, and if you’re playing the three-game early slate, he makes for a fantastic play in all formats.
8. Since 2016, Nolan Arenado has a .368 ISO against four-seam fastballs, which happens to be Nick Pivetta primary pitch against right-handed batters, which he throws 56.25% of the time. Pivetta, for his part, has allowed a .363 ISO to right-handed batters on the four-seamer, second-highest in MLB of the 78 pitchers with at least 75 at-bats ending in that particular pitch. Pivetta has shown reverse splits this year and has allowed 14 of 16 homers to righties, and his astounding 44.7% hard hit rate against righties (compared to 29.7% against lefties) is second-highest among qualified pitchers in MLB, trailing only Jake Odorizzi (47.0%). It almost goes without saying (because, you know, Coors), but Arenado is one of the top overall plays of the day.
9. Since July 4th, three players in MLB (min. 100 PA) have a .456+ wOBA and a .333+ ISO: Nolan Arenado, Giancarlo Stanton, and … Alex Bregman. Out of those three players, Bregman’s 9.6% strikeout rate is by far the lowest (Arenado is at 15.5%, Stanton is at 20.7%). With the rash of injuries the Astros are dealing with, Bregman has been moved to the second slot in the batting order. If that continues, Bregman’s contact skills and power combination will make him an elite cash game play almost every night. On Saturday, he faces reverse splits righty Marco Estrada, owner of a .357 wOBA and a massive 52.5% fly ball rate against same-handed hitters. The Astros have a healthy 4.79 implied run total, and if Bregman is batting high in the order, he provides a rare combination of safety and upside.
10. After homering twice off of Rangers lefty Martin Perez last night, Brian Dozier is sporting a .309 ISO against left-handed pitching since 2016; that’s the highest rate among qualified second basemen, more than 80 points higher than second-place Ian Kinsler (.226). Dozier faces a tougher lefty in Cole Hamels on Saturday, though this isn’t the same Hamels of years past. This year, Hamels is striking out just 15.3% of right-handed batters to go with a massive 39.9% hard hit rate. Dozier is severely underpriced at DraftKings ($3,600), where he’s priced with or below guys like Kolten Wong and Alen Hanson.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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