10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, April 27th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, April 27th.
Friday, April 27th
1. Take a look at Jacob deGrom’s soft contact by year:
2015: 19.6%
2016: 19.0%
2017: 21.3%
2018: 32.1%
That mark is best in MLB among qualified starters, just ahead of soft contact wizards Jose Berrios, Kyle Hendricks, and Dallas Keuchel. deGrom seems to have discovered another tool this season to pair with his elite strikeouts (which, by the way, aren’t going anywhere – his 31.5% rate in 2018 is a career high). In other words, deGrom is quietly positioning himself among the game’s elite (if he wasn’t already there entering the year). On Friday, he’s in a matchup that, had Thursday night not happened, we could call a “can’t-miss matchup” against the San Diego Padres, owners of a league-worst 28.4% strikeout rate against righties. He only comes at a slight savings over Corey Kluber, but his matchup is unquestionably better than Kluber’s.
2. Now, take a look at Corey Kluber swinging strike rate on his slider by year:
2016 – 27.3%
2017 – 28.0%
2018 – 19.3%
Kluber’s slider is his most dominant pitch, one that possesses crazy movement and has generated tons of swings and misses in the past. This year, he’s getting just as much movement on the pitch as ever, but hitters aren’t chasing it out of the zone as often (47.7% O-Swing after a 56.8% last year and 52.9% in 2016). I’m not going to say that Kluber is not elite – he is, on just about any slate in just about any matchup). He’s got a 1.96 ERA, a 3.08 SIERA, and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since July 29th, 2017 – that’s 17 straight games, the longest active streak in MLB, with only Justin Verlander (14) even reaching double digits in such games. But Kluber’s 27.4% strikeout rate ranks just 20th among qualified starters, between Sean Newcomb and Joey Lucchesi. We know that his strikeouts can return at any moment – it would only take a few 10- or 12-strikeout games in a row to place him back in his rightful slot alongside the Scherzers and Sales – so there’s no reason to (ever) fade Kluber in tournaments. But in cash games, he’s far from an auto-play, particularly given deGrom’s superior matchup.
3. Entering 2018, the highest HR/FB rate of Stephen Strasburg’s career was 13.1%; this year, he’s at 21.4%. He’s given up six home runs in five starts after giving up 13 over 28 starts last year. Something tells me this won’t hold up, and the best part is, his fluky home run variance has allowed him to be priced a tier below deGrom and Kluber (and, if you’re playing at DraftKings, Hyun-Jin Ryu – they must really believe in him to price him at $11,100…). Against right-handed pitchers, the D-backs have fanned at a 25.6% clip on the year, fourth-highest in the majors, and they rank in the bottom third of MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+, as well. This is an excellent matchup for Strasburg, putting him squarely in play in all formats.
4. In his home park since 2017, Dallas Keuchel is allowing opponents to slash just .191/.263/.273, and he’s one of just three pitchers (joining Jose Berrios and Corey Kluber) as the only pitchers to allow more soft contact (27.6%) than hard contact (23.3%). After scuffling to start the year, Keuchel has strung together two vintage Keuchel outings, allowing a combined three earned runs and striking out 12 in 14 strong innings against the Mariners and White Sox. After last night’s debacle that saw Dylan Bundy implode, Chris Sale look eminently hittable, and Jake Junis become the first Royal since Chris Young to allow five homers in a game, one can be forgiven for wanting to take the safety that Keuchel provides, especially at home. Make no mistake: this is not a perfect matchup, not with the right-handed power of Khris Davis and Matt Chapman and Jed Lowrie looming. But at just $8,800 at DraftKings, he’s a great option as an SP2.
5. Sean Manaea has allowed three or fewer earned runs in his last seven starts against the Astros dating back to 2016, and in 44 career innings pitched against Houston, his 2.45 ERA ranks second, his .287 slugging ranks first, and his .61 HR/9 ranks third. This should all be a bit shocking, since the Astros are, and have been, chock full of dominant right-handed hitters. It’s especially perplexing given that up until this year, Manaea’s changeup – typically a pitch that can help neutralize opposite-handed hitters – has been a below-average offering, at least in terms of FanGraphs’ pitch values. Of course, I’m burying the lede here; in his last outing, Manaea became the first Athletic since Dallas Braden in 2010 to spin a no-hitter (despite a few shenanigans). So, the great track record against the Astros, the improved secondary offerings, the recent unhittability…is any of this reason enough to play Manaea? In tournaments, I suppose, but this feels like it has all the makings of a letdown spot. If ownership will be high, I’m happy sitting this one out and rostering Manaea in a better matchup later on.
6. Only one player in MLB has posted more extra-base hits than strikeouts in four individual months dating back to last season (min. 97 PA): Jose Ramirez. This month, he’s notched nine extra-base hits to just seven strikeouts in 97 plate appearances, for a microscopic 7.2% strikeout rate. If you can afford him, Ramirez is the prototypical cash game play anytime he’s in a positive matchup, which he is on Friday against Seattle right-hander Erasmo Ramirez (.363 wOBA, 38.6% hard hits versus lefties since 2016). Ramirez is more than just a slap hitter who doesn’t strike out, though; his .277 ISO since last season places him 12th in MLB, between Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt. Indians stacks are never cheap, but at home against a starter who gets destroyed by lefties, loading up on Cleveland bats in tournaments could pay dividends.
7. With a pair of home runs last Sunday – and both off Corey Kluber, no less – Manny Machado became the first player since Alex Rodriguez in 2007 to record three multi-homer games in his team’s first 23 games of the season. For context, the Reds, as an entire team, have posted just three games of two or more homers all season. Machado hasn’t gone yard since Sunday, but that could easily change on Friday as the Orioles take on homer-prone reverse-splits righty Mike Fiers. Fiers’ 1.57 HR/9 to right-handed hitters since 2015 is tied with Ian Kennedy for sixth-highest in MLB over that span. Machado will be popular, but he has to be considered one of the top overall bats on the slate.
8. Steve Pearce has posted a .371 wOBA and a .267 ISO in 456 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers since 2014. That’s elite: Only Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Zimmerman, Nolan Arenado, and J.D. Martinez have matched those totals over that same time frame. Pearce has gotten comfortable batting atop the Jays order, posting a .440 wOBA while batting leadoff this year. He’s in a nice spot with the platoon advantage over Texas lefty Mike Minor on Friday, and his price remains fair across the industry. On a slate where we’ll need salary relief to fit in one of the high-end studs at pitcher, Pearce fits the bill as an affordable bat with upside.
9. Speaking of Jays with the platoon edge, how about Teoscar “Barry Bonds” Hernandez? (Last Saturday on Grinders Live, I gave an utterly useless stat showing that Teoscar Hernandez had out-homered Barry Bonds 14 to 13 in their first 74 games in MLB. Well, as it stands now, Hernandez has 15 home runs in his first 78 MLB games; Bonds is still stuck at 13. Just saying.). I obviously don’t think that Hernandez is really Barry Bonds (yet…), but the Toronto outfielder does have serious power. This year, 71 percent of his batted balls have been hit at 95 MPH or more, which is the highest rate in MLB. Along with Pearce, Justin Smoak, and any other Jays righties at the top of the order, Hernandez makes for an affordable part of a sneaky Jays stack on Friday.
10. Only five players this year (min. 70 PA) have a 16.5% strikeout rate or lower and a .319 ISO or higher: Didi Gregorius, Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, and … Jeimer Candelario. Candelario has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching, and while the Tigers are not typically high-priority targets, on Friday, the Tigers face Chris Tillman. Tillman is basically the world’s worst pitcher against left-handed hitting. This year against them, he’s walked seven, given up three homers, struck out just four, and allowed a .588 wOBA. And yeah, small sample. But even if you pan out and include last year, his wOBA is still at .458. This is a matchup to exploit, and Candelario should draw relatively little ownership on such a large slate, making him (and a Tigers stack) very interesting for GPPs.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.