10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, May 25th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, May 25th.
Friday, May 25th
1. Let’s start out with a game. Here’s how it works. I’m going to give you a set of three Mariners pitchers: Randy Johnson, Felix Hernandez, James Paxton. Then, I’ll give you a set of numbers: 28.0% strikeout rate or higher, 1.01 HR/9 or lower. Then, I’ll tell you that one of these pitchers never posted these numbers over a season, one did it twice, and one did it four times. Now, try to correctly match the pitchers with the number of times they achieved 28.0% strikeouts and a 1.01 HR/9 or lower.
I’ll wait.
You may have guessed that Randy Johnson posted that combination four times during his eight years and change in a Mariners uniform. And you’d be right. But here’s where the surprise comes in. Felix Hernandez, in his 14 years as a Mariner, has never posted such a season, while James Paxton has done it both in 2017 and 2018. Paxton is a legitimate ace. And while a writeup of any slate featuring Max Scherzer should probably begin with, “Play Max Scherzer it’s very tough to fit him in with any Coors Field bats on Friday. Paxton provides a viable alternative with tons of upside at a $2,100 discount; that’s the difference between Charlie Blackmon and Noel Cuevas. Miguel Sano’s likely return to the lineup adds an element of danger, but let’s remember that Paxton is better at striking out righties (32.2 K% vs. RHBs this year, 27.7% vs. LHBs, as well as a similar gap in 2017), and Sano could just as easily strike out multiple times as he could put a ball in the seats. The price difference between Scherzer and Paxton makes it a real discussion as for who is the top arm on the slate.
2. Here’s the complete list of pitchers (min. 34 IP) with a 27.0 percent strikeout rate and a 2.40 FIP or below in 2018: Max Scherzer, Luis Severino, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and … Ross Stripling. Stripling’s price has been jacked up all the way to $7,200 at DraftKings, but that still feels like a bargain when considering his performance this year and the matchup. San Diego’s inept offense has long been a favorite way of finding cheap pitching options in DFS, and Friday is no different. On a slate featuring Kluber, Syndergaard, Severino, Paxton, Corbin, and Keuchel, it is telling that the Padres against Stripling have the second-lowest implied total on the slate, higher only than the Marlins against Scherzer. Stripling hit 96 pitches in his last start, so he appears to be fully stretched out and ready to go, and he’s an excellent SP2 option to pair with Scherzer or Paxton.
3. Reynaldo Lopez has been elite against righties this year, boasting a .246 wOBA and a low 28.9% hard hits. Not many pitchers can say that, with only Jacob deGrom, Luis Severino, Rick Porcello, and Justin Verlander joining Lopez on the list (and to be honest, Porcello may drop off the list after getting shelled by the Rays on Thursday night). So, he’s been able to limit the damage, which is good. And while the 20.8% strikeout rate against righties is not ideal, a quick look at PlateIQ will show you that six of the Tigers’ projected bats have strikeout rates north of 22.0 percent against righties. Not to mention the fact that Lopez has shown flashes of serious upside this year, including in his last start, when he decimated the Rangers lineup over eight scoreless innings, fanning eight in the process, or when he pitched seven scoreless with five strikeouts against an even better version of this Tigers lineup (which included Miguel Cabrera) back in April. It’s a tough sell with Lopez given the sheer volume of aces on the slate, but his price is more than reasonable across the industry, and he does open a path to Coors bats, which makes him an intriguing SP2 for tournaments.
4. Jon Gray has three straight games of 8+ strikeouts at Coors Field, tying for the longest streak at Coors (and we’ll just forget that he allowed six earned runs in his last start at Coors to go along with the eight strikeouts). Only two other players in MLB history have strung together three straight games of eight strikeouts at Coors: Randy Johnson (who did it in 2000-2001) and … Jon Gray (who did it in June-July of 2016. It takes a strong stomach to roster a pitcher in Coors, but Gray has shown the ability to post huge scores despite the high altitude. Against a Reds team with a .130 ISO on the season against righties (ranked 27th in MLB), he’s worth a look in tournaments, especially given his more-than-reasonable price across the industry.
5. Sal Romano has allowed lefties to slash .313/.400/.568 against him this year. That’s not good. In fact, it’s so not good that only three players in all of MLB are slashing .313/.400/.568 this year: Mookie Betts, Manny Machado, and Brandon Belt (this is not a Brandon Belt note, but his being on that short list is pretty interesting in and of itself). Something tells me a visit to Coors Field, where Romano will have to contend with lefties like Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, and Carlos Gonzalez (I guess), will not be the remedy Romano needs to cure his lefty woes. There’s no surprise here, but fitting in Rockies left-handers should be a top priority in cash games, and while Blackmon is priced up as always, Dahl ($4,200 at DraftKings) and Gonzalez ($3,900) have price tags that aren’t too prohibitive.
6. Over the last two weeks, Paul Goldschmidt has a .152 BABIP, eighth-lowest of 177 qualified hitters. During that same span, he’s also got a 60.7 percent hard hit rate, which ranks second-best of 177 qualifiers (and these aren’t all hard-hit grounders, as evidenced by his 42.9% fly rate). There’s been a lot of talk about Goldschmidt not being the same hitter, and sure, he’s been bad for most of the season, not just over the past two weeks. But the way he’s been crushing the ball lately says a lot of this is just plain old bad luck, and it’s going to turn around. At just $3,900 at DraftKings, I’m more than happy to play Goldschmidt in tournaments against Sean Manaea, who, despite his breakthrough 2018 season, is still allowing 44.3 percent hard hits to righties.
7.
Matt Carpenter extra-base hits from Opening Day to May 15th (140 PA): 9
Matt Carpenter extra-base hits from May 16th to May 24th (35 PA): 8
After all the xwOBA minus wOBA, “Carpenter is the unluckiest hitter in baseball” talk, it turns out that yeah, Carpenter can still hit. DraftKings has not accounted for Carpenter’s recent power surge, either, which makes him a fantastic salary saver at second or third base at just $3,500. With Pirates righty Joe Musgrove making his first start of the year, and with a Pirates bullpen that is primarily right-handed (Steven Brault and Felipe Vasquez are the only lefties), Carpenter should have the platoon advantage for several at-bats. He’s one of the better point-per-dollar options on the slate.
8. After posting a 31.6% HR/FB rate in 2017 (fifth-best in MLB behind only Olson, Stanton, Judge, and J.D. Martinez), Rhys Hoskins’ HR/FB rate has plummeted to 11.1% this year. He’s still elevating the ball, with a 51.4% fly ball rate that is fourth-highest in MLB. He’s hitting fewer infield fly balls than last season. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives is up from 94.4 MPH in 2017 to 95.7 MPH this year. And yet, the power numbers just haven’t been there.
They will be. Consider this: two other players with fly ball rates at 50.0% and HR/FB rates of 11.1% are Daniel Descalso and Brandon Nimmo. Neither of these players, obviously, is in the same galaxy as Hoskins from a power standpoint. Stay the course with Hoskins, and take advantage of the bargain bin price tag while you still can, especially in a winnable matchup with Toronto righty Sam Gaviglio.
9. Austin Meadows has cracked three home runs in his first six games in the major leagues; he’s the first Pirate since Dick Stuart did it in 1958. Even more impressively, Meadows has struck out just once in his first 25 plate appearances in the bigs. With a bit of power and a bit of speed, and at just $3,800 at DraftKings, he’s an enticing play with the platoon edge against unproven Cardinals righty John Gant. It’s worth noting that while PNC Park really suppresses home runs to righties (89 park rating, second-lowest in MLB with only AT&T being lower), it’s actually fairly neutral for lefties. Better values may emerge once lineups are released, but at the moment, Meadows could provide a bit of salary relief in the outfield.
10. Only four qualified hitters in MLB have an OPS above 1.000 and a strikeout rate below 10 percent against lefties this year: Mookie Betts, Lorenzo Cain, Manny Machado, and … Jurickson Profar. It’s a minuscule sample, of course, but at the moment, Profar is crushing left-handed pitching. On Friday, the Rangers face Royals southpaw Eric Skoglund in Texas. With a .357 wOBA and 46.3% hard hits allowed, Skoglund has been owned by right-handed hitters this year. If you can’t get up to Trevor Story at $4,700 at DraftKings, Profar, who has posted double-digit DraftKings points in five of his last six games, offers some salary relief at just $3,700. He’s not necessarily a building block play, but outside of Story, shortstop is a difficult spot to fill on Friday, and Profar’s matchup is about as good as it gets.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!