10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 21st
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Friday, July 21st.
1. In his last start, Chris Sale tossed a gem (surprise, surprise), going 7 2/3 scoreless innings and striking out 13 Yankees in the process. It was his 13th double-digit strikeout game of the season…and we’re not even out of July. Prior to this year, only Randy Johnson (in 1999, 2000, and 2001) and Nolan Ryan (1977) had 13 games of 10+ strikeouts before July 21st. Friday’s slate is loaded with pitching, and the “Sale vs. Scherzer” debate will likely dominate much of the discussion around high-end pitching. Both pitchers have elite strikeout numbers, or my money, Sale gets the slight edge simply because he’s in pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium of Anaheim while Scherzer is forced to pitch in Chase Field, which is a hitter’s paradise. However…
2. If you wanted to make the case for Scherzer, you could point out that in that stat I mentioned above, Scherzer isn’t too far behind; he’s got 12 games of 10+ strikeouts this year, including nine out of his last 10. And his matchup is better, from a strikeout standpoint. Consider this: the Angels have faced 29 left-handed starters this season and allowed double-digit strikeouts exactly once (Kershaw on ). Even further, they’ve only allowed eight strikeouts to two pitchers (Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu on June 28th). The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have faced 72 right-handed starters and allowed 10+ strikeouts six times, and that list includes a few surprising names (Chase Anderson, Edinson Volquez). Furthermore, Scherzer comes at a slight discount. Ultimately, you’re probably looking at 8-10 strikeouts with no more than an earned run or two for each pitcher, but it’s a decision that will torment DFS players all day.
3. The Rays have allowed quality starts to eight of the last 10 right-handed starters they’ve faced in July. Here are those pitchers: Sonny Gray, Chris Smith, Daniel Gossett, Parker Bridwell, Ricky Nolasco, Rick Porcello, John Lackey, Kevin Gausman. Outside of Gray, this is a terrible group, and it underscores what a positive matchup this has been as of late. Clearly the floor is there, but this isn’t just a high-floor play; against a team that fans at a 24.3% clip (fourth-highest in MLB) against righties, Darvish has the strikeout ceiling to nearly keep pace with Sale and Scherzer. He will likely go under-owned with everyone scrambling to get into the Sale/Scherzer tier, which makes him a fantastic play for GPPs.
4. Here are the pitchers with a lower xFIP than Aaron Nola against righties since 2015 (min. 150 IP): Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw. That’s it. Nola has shown elite skills against righties throughout his career with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 27.9% hard hit rate, and just a .279 wOBA allowed. Given that the Brewers have been rolling out lineups with only two or three lefties (thanks, Craig Counsell!), Nola is an elite SP2 option on two-pitcher sites. And given his recent performance (five straight games of 7+ strikeouts and 2 or fewer earned runs), he’s about $1,000 too cheap on DraftKings. He’s an elite SP2 option, and he’s cheap enough that pairing him with Sale or Scherzer still allows you access to some solid bats.
5. George Springer has 27 home runs on the season; the only other Astros with 27 homers by July 21st were Jeff Bagwell (who had 31 in 1999 and 29 in 1994) and Lance Berkman (29 in 2002). On Friday, Springer and the Astros take on Ubaldo Jimenez, who has been the worst pitcher this side of Jered Weaver in 2017. As far as hitters go, priority number one is Coors Field. Priority number 1a is fitting in any Astros bats that you can.
6. Over the past 30 days, a Houston Astros batter has the most hits of 95 mph or greater, but surprisingly, it’s not Springer (okay, he has 42, which ranks second, but hear me out). It’s Yulieski Gurriel, with 45 batted balls hit of 95 mph or more. With Carlos Correa out, Houston has been batting Gurriel higher in the order – he even batted out of the three-hole on Wednesday. Gurriel has elite contact skills, with a career 10.3% strikeout rate against righties, and while It’s still early in his MLB career, he’s been more productive against righties, as well (122 wRC+ vs. RHP, 62 wRC+ vs. LHP). Particularly if he’s in the heart of Houston’s order, he’s an excellent way to get exposure to the Astros offense without paying the $5K+ price tags of George Springer or Jose Altuve.
7. Only one player in MLB has had a .350+ wOBA to go with a sub-14.0% strikeout rate against righties in each of the past three seasons (min. 350 PA each season). It’s not Joey Votto, or Daniel Murphy, or Robinson Cano, or even Jose Altuve. It’s another Astro, Josh Reddick. This year, Reddick has ratcheted up his play against righties even more, posting career-highs in fly balls (42.4%), hard hits (35.3%), slugging (.536), and wOBA (.373). While all the Houston bats are in play, the lefties even more than the righties deserve consideration. Why? Ubaldo Jimenez ERA against righties is sitting at 9.31, worst in MLB, and almost 1.5 runs higher than the player with the second-worst mark against lefties, Chad Kuhl at 6.85. Particularly at FanDuel, where he’s only $2,900, Reddick is an excellent play in all formats.
8. Charlie Blackmon is riding a 14-game hitting streak – tied for the longest of his career – in which he’s slashing .431/.484/.845. He left Wednesday’s game early with a cramp in his leg, so there’s a chance Colorado rests him for precautionary reasons (which, incidentally, could open up some Coors value bats). If does crack the lineup, you know the drill – do whatever you can to fit him into your lineups.
9. After a dreadful start to his 2017 campaign, Gregory Polanco is quietly turning things around; over the past 30 days, he’s one of five players with a sub-9.0% strikeout rate and a .367+ wOBA over the last 30 days, joining Justin Turner, Jose Altuve, Dustin Pedroia, and Yulieski Gurriel. At just $3,600, he’s massively underpriced at DraftKings, as are a lot of the Pirates bats. One of those bats is Starling Marte (just $4,200, likely leading off). Marte has absolutely owned Coors Field, with a .486 batting average in 11 career games in Colorado. Of those 11 games, six of them were multi-hit games, and he notched four hits in four of them.
10. Marco Estrada has walked four batters in five straight games; that’s the longest streak since Dontrelle Willis walked four in six straight from May 28 – June 29, 2010. To illustrate how sudden Estrada’s loss of control has been, consider this: he’s failed to reach five innings pitched in six of his last eight starts. Prior to this stretch, he only went fewer than five innings in two out of his last 40 starts dating back to the start of 2016. He may be dealing with an injury, but whatever the case, his loss of control makes Cleveland an interesting, low-owned stacking option. And for what it’s worth, they’ve been excellent against fly ball pitchers like Estrada this season, ranking fourth in MLB with a .211 ISO this year.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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