10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 29th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Saturday, July 29th.
1. On Saturday, Rich Hill takes the mound at home against the San Francisco Giants, and while his curveball (deservedly) gets all the publicity, Hill’s recent stretch of dominance has actually come with a decreased reliance on his that pitch in favor of greater four-seam fastball usage. Hill’s 32.52% whiffs per swing on his four-seamer (per Baseball Prospectus) is second-best in MLB, trailing only Jacob deGrom, and just to show how dominant the pitch has been, consider that the next two names on the list are Danny Salazar and Chris Sale. Hill’s new pitch mix has resulted in a much-improved contact rate as of late. Take a look:
Further, when batters have made contact with his heater, they haven’t been effective: the .293 wOBA Hill has induced on his four-seamer is better than that of Clayton Kershaw (.294), James Paxton (.295), and Max Scherzer (.306).
In the end, it doesn’t really matter how he’s doing it; all that matters is that Hill has fully recovered his 2016 form after scuffling to start the year. With the Giants having the second-lowest implied run total of the entire day (3.27 runs), Hill is the clear top option in cash games and GPPs, even on a slate with Jacob deGrom. Yes, the Giants are stingy with strikeouts (18.8%, fourth-lowest in MLB), but Hill may be able to overcome it; in his last two starts, he racked up seven or more strikeouts in six straight games, three of which included the low strikeouts of the Angels (20.1 K% vs. LHP), Marlins (20.3%), and Braves (19.2%).
2. Jacob deGrom has gone 8+ innings in six games since May 26th; not only is that the most such games in MLB, but only three pitchers (Corey Kluber, Michael Fulmer, Max Scherzer) have even had _three_such games during that span. The case for deGrom over Rich Hill lies in his ability to go deep into games. While Hill — like all the Dodgers pitchers not named Kershaw — could be pulled on a whim by Dave Roberts, and while Hill in particular is a perpetual blister risk (Perpetual Blister Risk, by the way, is also a great/terrible name for an indie rock band), deGrom continues to be effective deep into games. The Mariners’ 21.5% strikeout rate against righties is smack in the middle of MLB, and there’s a chance deGrom can outpace Hill if he can last eight innings while Hill is pulled after five or six. To be clear, with a 27.9% strikeout rate, deGrom is no slouch in the K department, either. But he’s not elite, and the elite early-season strikeouts have waned; if we cut his 20 starts in half, the 32.2% K rate over the first 10 games drops to 23.8% over the second 10 games. He’s certainly a fine cash game play in most matchups, but his path to a massive game seems a bit more difficult than Hill’s.
3. Corey Kluber has recorded 10 starts since coming off the DL on June 1st. Here are three quick facts to illustrate Corey Kluber utter dominance during this stretch:
— Since June 1st, Corey Kluber has 108 strikeouts in 71 IP; that’s more than Jacob deGrom (60 in 65.2 IP) and Jake Arrieta (45 in 58 IP) combined.
— Out of the 72 pitchers that currently qualify for the ERA title, 42 of them don’t have 108 strikeouts for the entire season.
— His strikeout rate during this 10-game stretch is 41.2%; prior to this, he’d never posted a K rate higher than 33.2% in a 10-game stretch.
4. After recording nine punchouts against the Dodgers in his last start, Sean Newcomb has now struck out 7+ batters in four of his first eight career starts; Brandon Beachy (with five games of 7+ Ks) is the only Brave with more such games in his first eight as a starter. While Kluber is the obvious, don’t-leave-him-out-of-your-lineup-if-you-like-money play of the day for the main slate, the question of who to pair him with is a bit trickier. Newcomb has given up 12 earned runs and walked 12 batters over the past three starts, so he’s far from safe. But the Phillies are not a patient team, walking just 7.8% of the time (10th-lowest in MLB), and their wRC+ of 81 is fifth-worst in baseball. He’s probably a better play for GPPs, but Newcomb makes sense as an SP2 alongside Kluber given his strikeout upside and the plus matchup.
5. Over the past calendar year, Gary Sanchez has 35 home runs and a .920 OPS; the last catcher to put up those numbers during a full season was in 2003, when Javy Lopez (who my wife swears is the handsomest baseball player ever – I don’t see it) clubbed 43 homers to go with a 1.065 OPS. (Side note: Mike Piazza was the only other catcher in the 2000s with 35+ homers and a .920+ OPS in a season, and he did it six times.). Sanchez is an elite GPP play on the early slate. He faces Tampa Bay lefty Blake Snell, who should garner a decent amount of ownership just because of the lack of quality SP2 options (thus lowering Sanchez’s ownership, in theory). Snell relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, which he throws 56.6% of the time against righties. Since 2016, Sanchez’s .333 ISO against four-seamers is tops among catchers and 19th-best in MLB (min. 100 ABs ending in that pitch).
6. Junior Guerra is one of four pitchers in MLB (min. 58 IP) with a 2.5 HR/9; the others are Jered Weaver, Amir Garrett, and Bronson Arroyo. He’s one of nine players with a 43.0%+ fly ball rate and a 33.3%+ hard hit rate, and that list comprised of pitchers with home run issues (Arroyo, Tim Adleman, Hector Santiago, Ian Kennedy to name a few). Certainly Guerra’s 20.8% HR/FB rate will come down, but it seems likely that the Cubs tag him for a home run or two, particularly given the game will be played in hitter-friendly Miller Park. Fitting in Cubs bats should be a high priority on the main slate.
7. Since 2014, Manny Machado had a BABIP below .243 in five calendar months; three of those calendar months were April, May, and June of this year. Despite the low BABIP, Machado is making more hard contact than ever, as evidenced by his career-high 41.4% hard hit rate (his previous career-high was last year’s 35.4% mark). The .325 BABIP Machado is carrying in July is much closer to his career .302 mark, and while it’s still baseball, it’s hard to imagine him not having a huge rest of the season. The Baltimore Orioles have the highest implied run total on Saturday’s main slate at 5.84 runs, and they should make plenty of contact against Texas righty Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who, with a 13.6% strikeout rate in a limited sample this year, has shown no ability to strike batters out. Machado is an elite play in all formats. (It’s worth noting also that Bibens-Dirkx has just a _6.3% K rate against lefties, making Chris Davis an elite play, as well).
8. Time for a game of blind resume! Take a look at the table below, which compares the numbers of two batters over the last calendar year:
| Stat | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| PA | 735 | 678 |
| wOBA | .365 | .392 |
| ISO | .196 | .229 |
| K% | 8.7% | 10.6% |
| HR | 28 | 25 |
| SB | 27 | 21 |
| wRC+ | 125 | 147 |
Comparing the numbers, while Player A strikes out a bit less and has had a bit more success in terms of raw home runs and steals, Player B seems to be the superior player in terms of stats we rely on more for DFS (wOBA, ISO, wRC+).
Player A is Mookie Betts, widely (and fairly) regarded as one of the top overall hitters in MLB. Player B is Jose Ramirez, who still doesn’t seem to get the credit he deserves. Personally, I love rostering Betts in cash games because of his high contact rate, but I always have a hard time paying a top salary for Ramirez; at least for me, this seems to be a case of name value skewing my thoughts about a player. Ramirez, a switch hitter who is slightly better against righties, is one of the best high-end cash game plays of the day against Miguel Gonzalez and his high .352 wOBA against left-handed hitters.
9. Another Indians bat worth targeting is Carlos Santana. He homered last night for his second game in a row. Check out his ISO marks by month this year:
April – .143
May – .202
June – .125
July – .319
Santana is a switch hitter, but his power comes from the left side (career .212 ISO vs. RHP, .162 vs. LHP), and the ballpark should help: with a 126 HR rating this year, Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field has been the top home run park to lefties this year, per Baseball Prospectus.
10. Chris Taylor has an .481 BABIP in 89 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, which ranks second of 150 qualified hitters; he also has a 28.1% hard hit rate against lefties, which ranks … 117th of 150 qualified hitters. To further illustrate how bad that is, he’s tied with Eduardo Nunez and is only slightly better than Guillermo Heredia (27.3%) and Alcides Escobar (27.1%) in hard hits against lefties. Furthermore, he has a high 25.6% strikeout rate against them. Taylor has had a breakout campaign for the Dodgers, but a closer look reveals that he’s done it in large part with smoke and mirrors. So while he’s not a bad play against Ty Blach and his measly 12.4% K rate against righties, we can expect Taylor’s unsustainable numbers against lefties to start evening out sooner rather than later.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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