10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Monday, April 9th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Monday, April 9th.
Monday, April 9th
1. Since joining the Nationals in 2015, Max Scherzer has 19 games of double-digit strikeouts at home; that’s more such games than Chris Sale (11) and Justin Verlander (7) have combined for at home over that span. On Monday, he gets a do-over of a matchup in which he disappointed last week, taking on the Atlanta Braves, this time in his home ballpark. Even against the high-contact offense of the Braves (16.9% K rate, fourth-best in MLB this year), even on slate with a few other notable strikeout artists (Syndergaard, Verlander), Scherzer has the highest strikeout projection on the slate almost by default. Coors Field bats will get a lot of attention on Monday (and rightfully so), but for cash games, there are few things in DFS more bankable than Scherzer racking up a bunch of strikeouts.
2. Dwight Gooden, Hideo Nomo, Jose Fernandez (RIP). All phenoms in their own ways, these are three of the four pitchers in MLB history with 435 strikeouts and a sub-3.00 ERA in their first 63 MLB starts. The other is the Mets’ own phenom, Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard is priced just below Scherzer, but he’s in a far superior matchup against Miami’s glorified Triple-A squad, the Marlins. Despite giving up a few runs in each of his first two starts, Syndergaard has been rolling, punching out 17 batters while walking just two. As a massive favorite even on the road, Syndergaard is essentially 1a. to Scherzer’s 1. If you need the savings of a few hundred dollars, Syndergaard is a perfectly reasonable consolation prize, and it would shock no one if he outscored Scherzer.
3. Dylan Bundy has two straight games of 7+ strikeouts and one or fewer earned runs to start a season, making him the first Oriole since (take your time)…Tom Phoebus in 1966 to accomplish the feat. The strikeout upside is real thanks to his deadly slider: Bundy is throwing the pitch nearly 26 percent of the time (up a bit from last year), and it’s already generated 14 swinging strikes, fourth-most in MLB (behind Patrick Corbin, Chris Archer, and Garrett Richards). Bundy has a less-than-favorable matchup on Monday, however, as he’ll take on a Blue Jays lineup that features no shortage of power. Yes, it’s early, but the Jays’ .244 ISO against righties is tops in MLB, which has me worried, particularly given Bundy’s fly ball tendencies (his 47.2% fly ball rate is fifth-highest in MLB since 2017). Given the risk factors involved, he’s better suited for tournaments, but just realize that if he has another high-strikeout game, his price tag (and ownership) will rise dramatically before his next start.
4. Only two pitchers this year have a 14.0% swinging strike rate and an 18.5% hard hit rate or lower: Chris Sale, and … Garrett Richards. I know, I know…we’re barely a week into the season, hard hit rate takes a long time to stabilize, yada yada yada. Maybe this is confirmation bias, but we’ve known for a long time that Richards possesses a rare combination of strikeout stuff and an ability to generate weak contact. At least for now, he’s healthy, and he’s showing glimpses of his upside with each passing start. The walks are troublesome, but I mean, he’s priced at $6,700 at DraftKings…let’s not get greedy. Until his price rises, I’m buying Richards, especially in a positive matchup like his one on Monday against the Rangers, where there are strikeouts to be had (Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers have each notched 10 Ks on Texas this year). On a slate with Coors bats, paying up for two of the top-tier pitchers simply isn’t optimal, and Richards provides some nice savings without sacrificing upside.
5. In his first start of 2018, Jakob Junis threw first-pitch strikes on 76 percent of his pitches; not coincidentally, it was a solid start for the Royals right-hander, as he blanked the Tigers over seven strong innings, striking out seven batters and walking just one. First-pitch strikes don’t always portend success, but getting behind in the count is a sure way to falter at the big-league level. It’s telling that the players with 70 percent first-pitch strikes so far this year are Masahiro Tanaka, Zack Greinke, Ian Kennedy, Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Luis Severino, Jon Lester, and Gerrit Cole. That’s a long list of names, but they all have one thing in common: they’re all good at pitching (okay, maybe almost all, excluding Kennedy). Junis was never a top prospect, but he is armed with an excellent breaking pitch, he appears to have solid control, and he pitches in an excellent park. At just $7,000 at DraftKings (priced below Miles Mikolas, for context), he’s firmly in play as an SP2.
6. Joey Votto has a .320/.439/.555 triple-slash against right-handed pitching in his career. The other players in MLB history (min. 1000 PA) to match that slash line against righties in their careers (min. 1000 PA): Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig. In a matchup with the Phillies’ Ben Lively, who has shown zero ability to get lefties out (.363 wOBA, 10.3% K rate for his career), Votto is the 10th-most expensive first baseman at DraftKings at $4,200. That’s too cheap. He may not be a priority bat with high-end pitching plus Coors bats on the same slate, but this is the definition of a cash game play: he’s got safety (because he’s Votto), he’s got upside (because of the bad pitcher plus upside Citizens Bank Park, which favors lefty power), and he’s reasonably priced.
7. Take a look at the players who have slashed .305/.411/.508 since July 7th, 2017: Jose Altuve, Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, Jose Martinez (kind of interesting in itself, but not the punchline), Tommy Pham, and … Jesse Winker. Winker’s .396 wOBA since being called up to the big leagues is the same as Carlos Correa. Obviously, Winker has accrued those numbers in limited playing time (152 PA), and nobody is expecting him to be Correa, or Altuve, or Bryant. But as a prospect, he was lauded for his ability to hit for average, and that’s translated to the big-leagues. On top of all this, he gets the same matchup as Votto from the leadoff spot, and like Votto, he’s underpriced at just $3,000 at DraftKings.
8.
Trevor Story against fly ball pitchers since 2016: .265 ISO, .213 average, 36.3% strikeout rate.
Trevor Story against ground ball pitchers since 2016: .264 ISO, .299 average, 26.2% strikeout rate.
So, against ground ball pitchers, Story essentially keeps all of his power while getting rid of the terrible batting average that plagues him against fly ballers. Oh, and he also cuts off 10 percent off of his strikeout rate. Obviously, a 26.2 strikeout rate doesn’t exactly make him Tony Gwynn, but given his power upside, it’s doable, especially in a plus matchup at home. Padres lefty Clayton Richard is an extreme ground ball pitcher, but he only strikes out righties at a 14.0% rate while allowing a .373 wOBA and 38.0% hard contact since 2017. Story isn’t priced through the roof, either, which makes him a priority bat for cash games and tournaments alike.
9. Along those same lines, D.J. LeMahieu sports a .369 average against ground ball pitchers since 2016. Only one player has a higher average against ground ballers over that span: reigning AL MVP Jose Altuve, at .374. Against ground ball pitchers, LeMahieu nearly always puts the ball in play, fanning only 9.4% of the time. Richard’s high 56.1% ground ball rate against righties does limit LeMahieu’s appeal in tournaments, but if he bats leadoff with Charlie Blackmon hobbled (as he did on Sunday against a lefty) he could grab an extra plate appearance. He should certainly be a part of Rockies stacks, and he’s an ultra-safe cash game option, particularly at FanDuel where he’s more reasonable at $4,200 (as opposed to $5,000 at DraftKings).
10. Of the 438 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched against righties since 2016, Cody Reed’s .413 wOBA ranks 437th. His 2.36 HR/9 ranks 430th. His 41.9% hard hit rate allowed ranks 434th. His .580 slugging allowed ranks 435th. You get the idea. He’s young, and he was a highly regarded prospect, but Reed has been an absolute trainwreck against opposite-handed hitters. When everyone will be chasing Coors Field, Phillies righties like Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Aaron Altherr, Cesar Hernandez, and Scott Kingery make for an interesting under-the-radar stack, especially given the Reds’ bullpen troubles (7.71 bullpen ERA tied with the White Sox for worst in MLB). And hey – one more 20-run game and they’ll have 62 runs on the season, which would tie the Braves for most in MLB!
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!