10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Sunday, June 23rd
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Tuesday, June 18th.
1. Jacob deGrom has had a torrid month of June, with a 17.5 K/BB rate in the month of June that ranks second-best in MLB behind only Walker Buehler (who has struck out 42 and walked one batter this month). After scuffling out of the gate (4.85 ERA in the first month of the season), deGrom is finally resembling the Cy Young winner from a year ago. Sunday’s slate is light at the top, and it’s really tough to justify paying an arm and a leg for Justin Verlander, who has allowed three home runs in back-to-back starts and now faces Stanton and Judge and Sanchez and Encarnacion and the rest of the Yankees’ potent lineup in Yankee Stadium. Enter deGrom, who has just as much upside as Verlander at a more reasonable price across the industry. Particularly at DraftKings and Yahoo, where deGrom comes at a $1,500 and $10 savings off Verlander, respectively, deGrom is a cash game building block at pitcher, even in a tough matchup with the Cubs.
2. Speaking of pitchers owning the month of June, only one pitcher this month has a strikeout rate above 29 percent and a hard-hit rate of 25 percent or below: Cole Hamels. He’s allowed a total of one earned run in his last four starts, and he hasn’t allowed the ball to leave the yard in six straight starts. He’s looked like the old Cole Hamels. With a 120 wRC+ that is fifth-best in MLB against lefties (in large part because of rookie phenom Pete Alonso and his .472 ISO against lefties), the matchup isn’t perfect. But unlike DraftKings, where Cole Hamels is the second-priciest pitcher at $11,000, FanDuel ($9,000) and Yahoo ($42) have Hamels as the fifth-most-expensive pitcher. It’s tough to pull the trigger on Hamels over deGrom or Verlander in cash games, but he does represent an intriguing GPP pivot given his recent form.
3. Mike Soroka has allowed only seven barrels in batted ball events; that 3.2 percent barrels per batted ball event is the lowest in MLB (200 BBE minimum). Brls/BBE% is second-lowest in MLB with a 100-BBE minimum. The 85.4 mph average exit velocity he’s allowed is fifth-best in MLB (with the same minimum). As with his teammate Max Fried, Soroka is elite at generating ground balls (57.3% is third-highest in MLB). In other words: he’s pitching beyond his years and is already an expert at contact management, which has been the book on him all along. Unfortunately, DFS points aren’t awarded for lightly hit grounders. The Nationals, despite a talented lineup, have struggled against right-handed pitching this year (88 wRC+, ranked 22nd in MLB). Even so, Soroka’s price tag has gotten out of control given his below average strikeouts (20.1 K%), making him nothing more than a tournament dart throw.
4. Only two pitchers in MLB have a strikeout rate above 28 percent and a walk rate below 7 percent and surrender less than 1 HR/9: Max Scherzer, and … Brandon Woodruff. Generally, if you’re racking up strikeouts, limiting the walks, and not allowing the ball to leave the yard, good things will happen. Woodruff has had success in all three areas this season. He allows too many line drives (23.5%), which is driving up his BABIP (.314), but he’s been impressive nonetheless. On Sunday, Woodruff finds himself at home in a winnable matchup with the Reds. Given that the team has Joey Votto and Jesse Winker, the Reds fan more often than you might think against righties (24.3%, ninth-most in MLB). They rank in the bottom six in MLB in both wOBA (.304) and wRC+ (84) against right-handers, as well. Woodruff continues to be underpriced, particularly at DraftKings, where he’s just $7,900. He’s an ideal SP2 to pair with your choice of deGrom or Verlander in cash games, in addition to being a pitcher with big upside for GPPs.
5. Of the last 10 right-handed pitchers the Detroit Tigers have faced:
— 8 have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs.
— 10 have struck out least 5 batters.
— 8 have struck out a minimum of one batter per inning (and one of the two exceptions was when Trevor Bauer struck out 8 in a complete game shutout).
This group of pitchers – which includes such luminaries as Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, Homer Bailey, and Jakob Junis – has averaged 22.5 DraftKings points against the Tigers over that stretch. On Sunday, Zach Plesac is the next pitcher who should benefit from Detroit’s utter incompetence against righties. The Tigers’ 73 wRC+ and 26.5 percent K rate against right-handers both rank dead last, and though Plesac appears to be a league average arm (he’s got an impressive 2.56 ERA, but his 4.67 SIERA probably tells a truer story), the matchup couldn’t be better. Along with Woodruff, he makes a lot of sense as an SP2 in cash games.
6. Christian Yelich is riding a 15-game home hitting streak in which he’s slashing .464/.523/.946 (1.470 OPS); it’s the second-longest active home hit streak in MLB behind only Charlie Blackmon’s 22-game streak (which, I mean, can we count it since it’s at Coors?). Yelich faces Anthony DeSclafani on Sunday, a pitcher who has a long history of struggling against southpaws. DeSclafani’s struggles have gotten no better in 2019, given his .406 wOBA, 2.45 HR/9, and 49.1 percent hard hits allowed to lefty batters. As always, you’ll have to pay up for Yelich, but this is pretty close to a best-case-scenario for the reigning (and future?) NL MVP.
7. The Texas Rangers will absolutely not be sneaky on Sunday, as they face Ivan Nova in the hitter-friendly Texas heat. But they’re still a team worth stacking up. Here are three reasons why:
— Only one player in MLB has hit two balls of 482 feet or more this year, and that player is a Texas Ranger, only not the one you’re probably thinking (Joey Gallo). It’s Nomar Mazara, who homered twice last night for a total of three in the series against the White Sox. Yes, Mazar’s power numbers always feel a little underwhelming (even with the two homers, his ISO for the year is still below .200). And yes, he still hits the ball on the ground far too often (he’s at 49.8% this year). But he’s got huge power when he does elevate the ball.
— Rougned Odor has a .396 ISO against sinkers since 2017; that’s second-best in MLB (min. 75 batted ball events), trailing only J.D. Martinez. Ivan Nova uses his sinker more than any other pitch, at 40.9 percent.
— Shin-Soo Choo has been unreal with the platoon advantage at home this year, posting a .437 wOBA and 56.5 percent hard hits; no other hitter in MLB – not Cody Bellinger, or Christian Yelich, or Mike Trout, or anyone else – has that combo at home against right-handed pitching.
8. In his last 600 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Jose Altuve has a .388 wOBA with a minuscule 12.7 percent strikeout rate. He’s one of three players to post those numbers (min. 200 PA), joining Ozzie Albies and Mookie Betts. Altuve has always been able to hit lefties well, and on Sunday he faces J.A. Happ in Yankee Stadium. Happ has been vulnerable to right-handers this season, allowing 14 home runs (2.03 HR/9) and 42.3 percent hard hits. But more than anything matchup-based, Altuve is in play because of his absurd price tag, particularly at DraftKings where he’s just $3,900. It’s hard to envision building a cash game lineup that doesn’t include Altuve.
9. Since 2016, only two players (min. 300 PA) have a .300+ ISO with a sub-18.0 percent K rate against lefties: Nolan Arenado, and … Hunter Renfroe. Everyone knows about Renfroe’s otherworldly power, but power like his usually comes with the expectation that they’ll be put down on strikes multiple times per game. Renfroe puts the ball in play, and when he does, he crushes it. On Sunday, he’ll have the platoon edge against Pittsburgh lefty Steven Brault, who has been awful against right-handers this year (.367 wOBA). Even further, Brault’s 14.6 strikeout rate against lefties ranks 125th of 132 pitchers with 30 innings accrued against righties. Renfroe will make lots of contact, and when he does, the ball could travel far. He’s an elite play for GPPs.
10. In the month of June, 11 players in MLB have reached double-digits in barrels; four of them – Josh Donaldson (11), Ozzie Albies (10), Ronald Acuna (10), Freddie Freeman (10) are members of the Atlanta Braves. The Braves find themselves in an ideal spot against Nationals starter Austin Voth, who is only being called on because Joe Ross pitched on Saturday. Voth has only 12 1/3 major-league innings under his belt, but so far, it hasn’t been pretty; he allowed three home runs in that short span. Even if the Braves somehow don’t do damage against Voth, they’ll have the luxury of facing a Nationals bullpen that has an MLB-worst 6.32 ERA. The Braves should gain steam throughout the day as a somewhat under-the-radar stack, and I’m fully on board.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!