10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Wednesday, April 11th

Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Wednesday, April 11th.

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Wednesday, April 11th

1. Only three pitchers since 2016 (min. 300 IP) have a sub-.300 wOBA, a sub-28.0% hard hit rate, and a strikeout rate above 24.0%. The first two – Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg – are obvious. The third one, if you’re playing at home, may take a few guesses. It’s Jon Lester. True, those numbers are in large part due to his Cy Young-caliber 2016 campaign. But even last year, in a down year, Lester allowed just a .320 wOBA, 28.6% hard hits, and 23.6% strikeout rate. While Lester may not possess eye-popping upside, his consistency – particularly on pitcher-starved slates like Wednesday’s – makes him an excellent option for cash games. As a heavy home favorite against the Pirates, Lester has arguably the highest floor of the pitchers available on the main slate.

2. Luis Castillo had a zone rating of 41.1% or below in each of his first two starts this season; last year, he only had two such games all season, over 15 starts. Cincinnati’s much-hyped sophomore has disappointed in a major way so far, but it’s not a problem of “stuff.” In fact, Castillo’s swinging strike rate of 16.2% is up significantly from last season’s 12.6% mark. He’s priced to buy, and with the absence of any must-have aces on Wednesday, this is not the time to become timid and back out. A matchup with the Phillies is not as favorable as it once was, but if Castillo can locate his pitches, his upside is unparalleled on this slate.

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3. In his last 20 starts, Masahiro Tanaka has posted a swinging strike rate below 10.0% exactly one time, on August 9th of last season. Over that 20-game span, Tanaka has posted a 16.4% swinging strike rate overall. The last time a qualified pitcher posted a swinging strike rate above 16.0% over a full season? Randy Johnson in 2002. True, we don’t get points for swinging strikes, but they do indicate that the 30.0% strikeout rate Tanaka posted over that same stretch are real. On Wednesday, he’ll need to summon all his swing-and-miss magic against the Red Sox, a high-contact lineup whose 15.3% strikeout rate is second-lowest in MLB. It’s a tough matchup, in a tough ballpark, but it’s also a tough slate for pitching, and Tanaka is a worthy cash game option alongside Lester.

4. After recording nine strikeouts and zero walks in 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Marlins in his last start, Nick Pivetta now has five games of 9+ strikeouts since June 15th, 2017 – that’s the same number as Gerrit Cole, Chris Archer, James Paxton, and Jose Quintana. Pivetta’s secondary pitches have been working so far this year, as he’s yet to allow a hit on his slider or curveball. Unfortunately, the .457 average allowed on his four-seamer (after allowing a .402 wOBA and .241 ISO on the pitch in 2017) means there’s always the lurking possibility that he gets roughed up, making him better suited for tournaments. However, there’s a lot to like in a matchup against a banged-up Reds team that will be without Eugenio Suarez and Scott Schebler.

5. After homering last night, Mike Trout has 205 homers, to go along with 167 stolen bases, in his first 937 career games. He’s one of just two players in MLB history – joining Alfonso Soriano and Darryl Strawberry – to boast that combination of homers and steals in the first 937 big-league contests. Trout is the top overall bat to target on the main slate, as he has the platoon advantage in a hitter’s park against Matt Moore and his 11.05 ERA (small sample sizes!) through two games. Without Coors or any premium arms on the main slate, Trout is the building block piece to start your cash games with on Wednesday night.

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6. Joey Gallo has already hit 12 balls in the air at 110 MPH+ this season; that’s the same number as Giancarlo Stanton (6) and Aaron Judge (6) combined. He’s hitting the ball as hard as ever, and while it’s still very early, he’s cut more than 13 percentage points off his strikeout rate from last season (36.8% in 2017; 23.1% in 2018). There’s almost no way that level of improvement holds, but if he can even shave five or six percentage points and bring his strikeouts down to 30.0%, he’ll quickly shed the “tournaments only” label most strikeout hitters are saddled with. He’s an elite play on Wednesday, as he’ll have the platoon edge against Angels righty Jaime Barria, making his first big-league start.

7. Let’s take a look at the number of home runs hit by some notable “lefty mashers” in their last 329 plate appearances against left-handed pitching:

Carlos Correa – 13
Khris Davis – 19
Kris Bryant – 20
Nolan Arenado – 21
Nelson Cruz – 22

With that out of the way, it may surprise you to learn that Wilmer Flores, in his last 329 plate appearances against lefties, has hit 23 home runs. On Wednesday, Flores has the platoon advantage against Marlins left-hander Jarlin Garcia, and as always, he’s one of the best bargains on the slate and is an autoplay in cash games.

8. Last night, Javier Baez showed how much he likes hitting at Wrigley Field, smashing his first two home runs of the season, both off right-handed pitchers. Historically (which, admittedly, is a funny word to use a few seasons into a player’s career), Baez has crushed left-handed pitching at Wrigley. Since he started getting regular playing time in 2016, he’s posted a .454 wOBA in 124 plate appearances against lefties at Wrigley; among players with as many plate appearances as him against lefties at home during that span, only Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, Nolan Arenado, and JD Martinez have better wOBAs. Baez is one of the slew of Cubs righties (Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell, Albert Almora) who are playable against Pirates lefty Steven Brault.

9. Since being called up on June 15th of last year, Matt Chapman has 28 barrels; that’s the same number as Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, and Brian Dozier. Even better, it took Chapman fewer plate appearances than any of those players to reach 28 barrels. Chapman’s power is real, and while his matchup against soft contact wizard Alex Wood renders him more of a tournament play, he was slotted second in the order on Tuesday against lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. If he continues batting second, he’ll be an interesting play moving forward.

10. Brian Anderson has six games of 10 or more DraftKings points; in all of MLB, only Aaron Judge has more such games this year, with seven. Okay, so it’s at this point that I guess I need to mention that a Brian Anderson does not equal 6/7 of an Aaron Judge. But Anderson has steadily been producing, and his price remains low, making him an interesting salary saver any time he’s in a decent matchup. Mets righty Zach Wheeler represents just that, a decent matchup. (Wow – what a ringing endorsement to close out “10 Notes.” Maybe I should’ve ended with the Trout or Gallo note.). But seriously – Brian Anderson is not all that terrible at baseball!
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!

About the Author

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Josh Cole (mewhitenoise)

Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) is a high school English teacher and contributor at RotoGrinders. You can find him on Twitter @joshuabcole.