10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Wednesday, August 22nd

by Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) Last Updated 2018-08-22 13:04:10

Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.

I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Wednesday, August 22nd.

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Wednesday, August 22nd

1. Since entering the league in 2015, Noah Syndergaard has posted a 3.00 ERA, a 27.5 percent strikeout rate, and a 49.7 percent ground ball rate; no pitcher in MLB (min. 400 IP) has matched those numbers (though Kershaw comes awfully close, with 49.3 percent grounders). So, he prevents runs, gets plenty of strikeouts, and keeps the ball on the ground. All of this is good. And yet, from a DFS perspective, Syndergaard’s end results always feel a bit disappointing. He’s only eclipsed 20 DraftKings points once in his last seven starts.

Looking underneath the hood, though, we can see that Thor has been a victim of some exceptionally poor (and exceptionally sustained) batted ball luck. Given his ability to generate soft contact, the .337 BABIP he posted in 2017 seemed high. But it’s gotten even worse this year, up all the way to .343. That’s tied for second-highest in MLB, despite the fact that his 21.0 percent hard-hit rate is lowest of any pitcher (min. 100 IP), and his 26.1 percent soft contact is second-highest behind only Chris Sale. It’s been frustrating to pay top dollar for Syndergaard only to be disappointed time and time again, but all signs point to him being an ace who is due for some serious regression. That could start on Wednesday, as he’s at home in a winnable matchup against the Giants (.273 team wOBA over the last 30 days, ranked 29th in MLB and just a hair better than the last-place Marlins). He’s a fine starting point for cash games on a slate that doesn’t offer any slam dunk options at the high end of the pitching pool.

2. Since debuting in 2015, Jon Gray has been the Padres’ nemesis, striking out 12.2 batters per nine over 13 starts and 78 innings pitched; the only other pitcher in history with 12+ K/9 against the Padres (min. 70 IP) is Randy Johnson, at 12.1. Gray has been lights out since returning from his brief minor league stint, and despite Coors Field, he brings double-digit-strikeout against a Padres team that fans at a 25.7 percent clip against righties, second-highest in MLB. Vegas agrees, as the Padres have a low 4.12 implied total, one of the lowest I’ve ever seen for Coors Field. At just $7,800, Gray makes for a fantastic SP2 or tournament option so long as you can stomach rostering a pitcher in Coors. Given what we have (which isn’t much) at pitcher on Wednesday, that may be a bit easier than usual.

3. It’s probably too early to look at Walker Buehler’s home/road splits, but hey, this is an interesting stats article, so let’s do it anyway. He’s shown much better strikeout stuff and control at home, with a 7.3 strikeout-to-walk rate that ranks fourth among pitchers with at least 48 innings at home, trailing only Justin Verlander, Ross Stripling, and Corey Kluber, all elite control pitchers. Even more noteworthy is the fact that Buehler has thrown 90+ pitches in five straight games. We can never assume Buehler will continue to get 90+ pitches, but the longer leash is encouraging, as is the matchup. The Cardinals have been hot (.347 team wOBA in August, third-best in MLB), but the lineup should include at least six righties, which should help Buehler given his .257 wOBA allowed to righties this year. I prefer Thor for cash games, but for tournaments, Buehler is one of the top options on the slate.

4. Since joining the Yankees, Lance Lynn has put up a 32.1 percent strikeout rate over four games; the last time he posted a strikeout rate that high over a four-game stretch was way back in June of 2012. Obviously, there are two ways of looking at this: either the move to New York has yielded some untapped strikeout potential, or this is the typical variance you see across a four-game sample. While it’s most likely simple variance, it is worth noting that since joining the Yankees, Lynn has relied more heavily on his slider, throwing it 16.2 percent of the time (compared to the 11.3 percent as a Twin). If Lynn, who throws more fastballs than just about anyone in baseball, is throwing his breaking stuff more often, it could conceivably yield a few more punchouts (though not anything close to 32 percent, admittedly). On Wednesday, Lynn faces the Marlins, and it’s the same old story: he should have no trouble in the run prevention department, but another eight-strikeout performance (as he’s done in two of four starts as a Yankee) is unlikely. At just $8,000 at DraftKings, he’s worth a look in tournaments given the lack of high-upside pitching on the slate.

5. Trevor Richards throws his changeup 30.1% of the time, fourth-most in MLB (min. 80 IP). It’s a very good pitch, and one that has allowed him to neutralize lefties (.271 wOBA). If the Yankees roll out four lefties, plus the pitcher, we could be seeing a repeat of Pablo Lopez’s performance from Tuesday night (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K). Without Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, or Didi Gregorius, the Yankees lineup is not intimidating, especially in Marlins Park, one of the best parks in MLB for suppressing power. With some really desirable bats to pay up for on Wednesday, we’ll need a cheap SP2 at two-pitcher sites, and Richards could be the guy, though if he becomes popular, he’s an easy fade in tournaments.

6. For his career, Charlie Blackmon is slashing .343/.403/.561 at Coors Field; that makes him one of just nine players in MLB history with that slash line in their home park. In addition to Blackmon, the list includes six Hall-of-Famers (Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby, Chuck Klein, Earl Averill) and a couple of Blackmon’s fellow Coors sluggers (Todd Helton, Larry Walker). On Wednesday, Blackmon has the platoon advantage against Jacob Nix, the Padres’ rookie right-hander who was recently lit up for five runs before getting the hook after just two outs in his previous start against the Diamondbacks. With the Rockies given an implied total of 6.38 runs, fitting in as many Rockies as possible is a top priority, and Blackmon is arguably the top option (“arguably” because Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story aren’t bad options, either).

7. Including August, Tommy Pham has had a .235 BABIP or below in three of the five months this season despite a 47.8 percent hard-hit rate that ranks sixth in MLB, between Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt. For context, last year, Pham’s lowest BABIP in any month was .333. He’s priced at only $3,700 against a homer-prone pitcher in Jakob Junis, and he brings a bit of added stolen base upside. Pham is one of the better point-per-dollar bats on the slate and deserves cash game consideration.

8. No hitter in baseball has improved in the contact department from last year to this year as much as Corey DIckerson. Dickerson’s overall contact rate has improved by 7.9 percent (up to 81.5% after 73.6% last year), the biggest increase in MLB, and his zone contact rate has jumped 11.1 percent (86.4% this year, 75.3% last year), also the biggest improvement in baseball. Not surprisingly, he’s best when he’s got the platoon edge, with a .200+ ISO and a sub-12.0% K rate against righties, which puts him in good company: only Jose Ramirez and Anthony Rizzo match those numbers among qualified hitters. Dickerson has hit safely in seven straight games, and on Wednesday, he’s in a pristine matchup against Julio Teheran, who continues to have issues getting lefties out (.337 wOBA, 37.9% hard hits vs. LHBs since 2017). He may not be the most exciting player to roster, especially at home in pitcher-friendly PNC Park, but only $4,000 at DraftKings, he’s safe enough for cash games with a bit of upside for GPPs.

9. While Javier Baez is often (and justifiably) thought of as one of the least disciplined hitters in the game, it’s worth noting that, in a small sample, he’s really improved his contact skills against lefties in 2018. His 16.2 percent strikeout rate is better than that of more contact-oriented hitters like Whit Merrifield and Guillermo Heredia, yet he still keeps his prodigious power against southpaws. In fact, he’s one of only four hitters with a 16.2 percent strikeout rate or lower and a .583 slugging percentage, joining Lorenzo Cain, Mookie Betts, and Nolan Arenado. He’s pricey at $5,000 at DraftKings, and the Cubs’ offense has been ice cold, but Baez has as much upside as anyone at the second-base position in a positive matchup against the shell of Francisco Liriano (.371 wOBA allowed to righties this year).

10. It’s time for a game of blind resume! Let’s take a look at some DFS-relevant stats of two hitters against left-handed pitching since 2016:

If we’re looking at numbers alone, it’s startling how similar these two hitters are. Player A show a bit more power while Player B hits for a bit more average, but outside of that, these hitters have produced largely the same results against lefties since 2016.

Let’s start with Player B, who is one of the best young hitters in the game: Carlos Correa. Player A is much less heralded: it’s Cleveland’s Brandon Guyer, who is priced at just $3,300 in an excellent matchup against Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson on Wednesday. Now, this isn’t to suggest that Correa and Guyer are equals; something tells me that five years from now, Correa will be raking while Guyer will be buried in the deep recesses of Baseball Reference, only to occasionally be dug up for fun facts in articles like this one. But over the last few years, Guyer has held his own when he’s had the platoon advantage, and if he’s hitting out of the five-hole (as he often does), he’s an absolute steal at his price tag. Here’s hoping he cracks the lineup…
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.

Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!