Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, August 21st
There are definitely some high profile pitching choices on Friday. Hopefully this will bring a good end to a week where pitching choices and performances were neither easy nor comfortable. There are also some youngsters on the mound tonight with two newbies facing each other. Then there’s Bartolo Colon pitching in Colorado and David Holmberg pitching anywhere, so offense shouldn’t be a problem either. We all know how that usually works out though. You spend all day preparing, then try to set your laptop on fire and throw it through your TV with more accuracy then that night’s chosen pitchers by 7:30. It’s on me to try to prevent some fires and living room disasters tonight.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -7.8 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 1.59 | 0.84 | 3.01 | 4.54 | STL | 90 | 98 | 94 | 19.3% | 6.2% | 23.4% | 10.3% | 6.7% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 2 | 3.74 | 6.32 | 1.01 | 1.4 | 3.88 | 4.79 | COL | 94 | 97 | 76 | 17.8% | 4.7% | 21.3% | 10.8% | 6.7% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 2.9 | 3.4 | 5.74 | 3.34 | 1.01 | 3.11 | 4.14 | HOU | 110 | 99 | 73 | 19.9% | 8.1% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 7.8% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -3 | 2.72 | 6.37 | 1.78 | 1.02 | 2.83 | 3.03 | NYY | 115 | 104 | 106 | 22.8% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 12.3% | 9.7% |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | -7.9 | 4.18 | 6.16 | 1.04 | 0.93 | 3.94 | 2.71 | TAM | 95 | 91 | 95 | 22.4% | 6.6% | 21.8% | 8.3% | 14.7% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | -6.6 | 2.54 | 6.79 | 1.11 | 0.85 | 2.8 | 1.99 | SEA | 103 | 98 | 125 | 28.4% | 6.5% | 21.5% | 10.5% | 8.7% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 3.5 | 4.18 | 6.08 | 0.75 | 1.05 | 4.35 | 4.12 | DET | 111 | 105 | 140 | 19.7% | 6.5% | 22.2% | 11.8% | 10.0% |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 3.8 | 5.74 | 4.62 | 0.84 | 1.02 | 5.87 | 6.35 | ARI | 93 | 96 | 65 | 17.2% | 11.0% | 18.3% | 16.0% | 8.4% |
| David Price | TOR | -1.8 | 3.02 | 7.12 | 1.1 | 0.91 | 3.14 | 3.72 | ANA | 103 | 91 | 91 | 21.1% | 5.9% | 20.2% | 9.0% | 11.7% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 10.6 | 3.5 | 5.73 | 0.84 | 0.93 | 3.41 | 4.79 | OAK | 99 | 91 | 107 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 23.5% | 13.9% | 14.6% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -3.1 | 2.77 | 6.57 | 2.19 | 0.85 | 2.8 | 3.94 | CHW | 89 | 92 | 87 | 21.4% | 5.6% | 18.1% | 13.6% | 7.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -3 | 3.65 | 5.86 | 1.57 | 1.03 | 3.31 | 4.49 | MIL | 83 | 72 | 97 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 20.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2 | 4.29 | 5.4 | 0.63 | 0.91 | 4.58 | 4.6 | TOR | 98 | 124 | 70 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 17.8% | 10.1% | 13.9% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | -4 | 3.89 | 5.33 | 0.61 | 1.07 | 1.71 | 4.09 | KAN | 93 | 95 | 90 | 21.5% | 7.1% | 24.3% | 17.7% | 15.9% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -3.9 | 4.17 | 5.74 | 1.9 | 0.91 | 3.77 | 4.65 | SFO | 106 | 100 | 107 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 22.3% | 10.2% | 6.1% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -5.4 | 0 | 0 | 1.01 | FLA | 87 | 82 | 115 | ||||||||
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -5.1 | 3.84 | 6.01 | 1.6 | 1.03 | 4.26 | 2.95 | WAS | 93 | 95 | 103 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 20.0% | 11.6% | 10.6% |
| John Lackey | STL | 1.1 | 3.84 | 6.57 | 1.2 | 0.84 | 4.12 | 4.38 | SDG | 94 | 91 | 147 | 18.5% | 6.6% | 20.1% | 12.9% | 9.2% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 9.3 | 3.3 | 7.05 | 1.27 | 1.07 | 3.63 | 3.49 | BOS | 113 | 96 | 186 | 18.9% | 6.1% | 21.2% | 10.1% | 9.5% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | -0.7 | 3.56 | 5. | 1 | 1.4 | 2.89 | 3.45 | NYM | 78 | 90 | 77 | 24.0% | 6.3% | 19.4% | 8.0% | 13.8% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.9 | 4.04 | 6.42 | 0.85 | 1.05 | 4.83 | 3.69 | TEX | 92 | 98 | 112 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 18.9% | 9.2% | 10.6% |
| Kendry Flores | FLA | 4.8 | 4.23 | 1.63 | 1.01 | 2.68 | 3.06 | PHI | 86 | 85 | 111 | 19.5% | 5.1% | 20.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 5 | 3.72 | 5.87 | 1.63 | 1.05 | 3.33 | 4.45 | ATL | 81 | 88 | 85 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 21.3% | 12.3% | 9.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 1 | 2.96 | 6.65 | 1.23 | 0.91 | 3.1 | 1.28 | PIT | 108 | 99 | 115 | 26.0% | 5.3% | 22.3% | 9.1% | 10.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -6.6 | 2.97 | 6.62 | 1.47 | 1.02 | 3.04 | 3.24 | CLE | 89 | 98 | 86 | 21.9% | 6.6% | 22.0% | 13.5% | 11.1% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -1.8 | 3.5 | 5.88 | 0.89 | 1.01 | 3.63 | 3.44 | LOS | 104 | 112 | 128 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 20.4% | 13.2% | 13.8% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 3.5 | 4.04 | 5.93 | 1.55 | 1.02 | 4.08 | 5.16 | CIN | 102 | 89 | 61 | 18.3% | 8.1% | 20.1% | 12.0% | 7.7% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | -3.6 | 4.37 | 6.03 | 1.15 | 1.05 | 4.23 | 3.99 | CHC | 92 | 94 | 132 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 17.2% | 10.5% | 11.4% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 2.9 | 4.37 | 5.59 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 4.37 | 5.37 | BAL | 112 | 98 | 146 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 21.7% | 12.5% | 13.8% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 7.9 | 3.84 | 5.99 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 3.62 | 3.46 | MIN | 76 | 96 | 100 | 21.4% | 5.5% | 17.2% | 12.3% | 11.9% |
Andrew Cashner has seen his season go into the tank with a below average K% after seeing it plummet over the last month. He’s been a lot better at home than on the road though, with a 16 point difference in his K-BB%. He has an 18.1 K-BB% and 6.4 HR/FB at Petco since last season. In addition to striking out more batters and walking fewer at home, he’s also gotten hit much harder, but with better results. That might validate the theory being tossed around recently, and mentioned here before, about San Diego pitchers attacking hitters at home and looking for strikeouts with their poor defense, relying on the park to save them if the ball is hit hard. It hasn’t worked for a few of his teammates, but he’s only allowed five HRs at home this year. He faces a St. Louis offense that is average against RHP, but poor on the road (14.7 K-BB%) and park adjusts downward to one of the top matchups tonight.
Brett Anderson has generated weak ground balls with a respectable strikeout rate for much of the season, making him a favorite around here as he always seems to find himself in good spots at low prices. The weak ground ball part hasn’t changed at all (66.8 GB% leads the league, 0.4 Hard-Soft%). What has changed is the respectable strikeout rate dropping to the lowest on the board today (among qualified pitchers) and almost non-existent over the last month (three or fewer in five of his last six starts). He can still be useful in certain spots, like perhaps in being able to prevent a team like Houston from elevating and receiving a slight strikeout boost from them, although he’s been allowing a few more HRs recently (five in his last six starts). The HR rate might look scary in the chart above, but remember that a high HR/FB means a lot less to a guy with such a massive ground ball rate. Houston is a tough home offense (17.5 HR/FB), but average vs LHP with a lot of strikeouts (24.5 K% at home, 23.0 K% vs LHP) and just a 0.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week, representing a neutral matchup tonight in a neutral run environment.
Carlos Carrasco has gone at least seven innings with seven or more strikeouts and no more than two ERs in each of his last four starts. His 21.1 K-BB% on the road since last year loses nothing away from home though the 6.7 HR/FB that goes along with it might be challenged. He has pitched decently in offensive environments this year, however. The Yankees are the 3rd best home offense in baseball (14.8 HR/FB), slightly above average vs RHP (13.8 HR/FB), and an unfavorable park adjusted matchup.
Chris Bassitt has looked like an All-Star for Oakland (2.60 ERA) and while the underlying numbers are more average (13.7 K-BB%), I don’t think anyone even expected that from him this year. He hasn’t allowed more than three ERs in any of his eight starts and has gone at least 6.2 innings with six strikeouts or more in each of his last four. Tampa Bay is a below average road team and against RHP (22.0 K%) with just a 5.8 HR/FB over the last week, representing a great matchup here with a negative park adjustment.
Chris Sale is tonight’s top pitcher, in terms of both price and having the lowest ERA estimators in any chart which they appear today. He struck out a season-high 15 of the 26 batters he faced in his last start and now has the highest SwStr rate this year (15.5%) and 3rd highest in the pitchf/x era (since 2002) with the 2nd highest K% over that span. In addition, he has just a 6.8 HR/FB on the road since last season and gets to pitch in a great park tonight against an average offense that strikes out more than average (22.9% at home, 21.2% vs LHP, 25.1% over the last week) and are a favorable park adjusted matchup.
David Price has gone at least seven innings in 14 of his 24 starts this season with an 18.8 K-BB% that’s below last year’s mark, but the 2nd best of his career. He has a 20.2 K-BB% on the road since last year and gets a park upgrade tonight outside of Toronto to take on a below average offense vs LHP and very favorable matchup after the adjustment.
Drew Smyly had a disappointing return after a long disabled list stay, but at least his velocity wasn’t reduced. He’s allowed six HRs in four starts this season but did have an 11.6 SwStr% in his return. He’ll obviously be watched closely and is unlikely to go deep in this game, but Oakland offers a favorable, low powered (6.7 HR/FB at home, 7.3 HR/FB & 6.1 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) park adjusted matchup even with a very low strikeout rate (16.0% at home, 17.1% vs LHP).
Felix Hernandez allowed at least seven runs for the fourth time in 14 starts last time out but has only allowed more than two ERs in two of the other 10 starts. He’s remained better at home (higher 17.4 K-BB% this year, 20.2 K-BB% since last season) and is still generating a double-digit SwStr%. HRs and a reduced K-BB% have caused him some issues this year, but he still has the profile of an above average pitcher, if not elite one this year and has the top park adjusted matchup tonight against a poor offense (6.0 Hard-Soft%, 15.6 K-BB% over the last week).
Gio Gonzalez followed up eight shutout innings against the Dodgers with fewer than three and six runs against the Giants and hasn’t gone more than five innings in five of his last six starts. He hasn’t allowed a HR in six starts though and continues to generate a lot of ground balls (2.32 GB/FB) with a league average strikeout rate. He returns home to face a very poor road offense and 3rd worst vs LHP in one of the top park adjusted matchups of the night.
Henry Owens allowed three HRs and seven runs to Seattle last time out, but struck out 10 of 29 batters, missing 18 bats over 99 pitches. He faces an offense tonight that you don’t expect to swing and miss nearly as much (16.7 K-BB% on the road, 15.1 K% vs LHP), but are also unlikely to hit the ball nearly as hard (6.6 HR/FB vs LHP). They are a below average offense on the road and vs LHP, adjusting to neutral with a small park bump.
Jerad Eickhoff was part of the Cole Hamels package. Not much of a prospect, he has middling stuff and command, with the fastball and curveball being the two potentially above average pitchers. If he’s 25 years old and the Rangers, with all their pitching woes, never attempted to call him up this or last season, you wonder how useful he can really be. He does face the 2nd worst home offense and worst vs RHP though.
Jimmy Nelson has pitched into the 7th inning in each of his last five starts, allowing a total of six ERs (all in his last two starts). Through many ups and downs, he ends up as a perfectly league average pitcher at this point, which Milwaukee will take. Washington is a slightly below average offense that gets a positive park bump up to a neutral matchup tonight. They have a bit of pop (12.7 HR/FB vs RHP) but strike out a bit more than average too (21.3 K% vs RHP).
Jonathan Gray has looked good in his three major league starts, including two at home and one vs these Mets on the road. He was the team’s top prospect and the stuff has flashed strongly in his brief major league tenure with an above average strikeout rate and -7.3 Hard-Soft%, though he has been a bit fortunate with a .221 BABIP and 5.9 HR/FB (1.00 GB/FB), which we won’t analyze any further with just three starts under his belt. Strangely, the one HR he did allow was to Travis D’Arnaud on the road in NY. The Mets are the 2nd worst road offense in baseball (22.7 K%, 8.1 HR/FB) and have struck out a major league high 27.5% over the last week. The massive park bump does make (and anyone obviously) a very unfavorable matchup tonight, though.
Madison Bumgarner has pitched back to back complete games (one ER total), striking out 26 of 62 batters. He’s thrown over 100 pitches in three straight starts but has maxed out at 116 in the first one, so it’s probably not something to be concerned about tonight. His strikeout rate has increased each of the last three seasons and his 22.6 K-BB% is now tied for 5th in the majors. He faces a tough Pittsburgh offense, but with a 22.7 K% vs LHP and negative park bump giving him a slightly advantageous matchup here.
Masahiro Tanaka has gone at least six innings in eight straight starts and the full nine with one run and eight strikeouts in his last start in Toronto. So much for needing elbow ligaments, huh? HRs have been an issue at home since he signed with the Yankees (18.3 HR/FB), but a 20.4 K-BB% in Yankee Stadium has tempered that. He faces a patient Cleveland team, who strikes out a bit less than average, but doesn’t have a ton of power and is below average overall. It’s a slightly favorable park adjusted matchup.
Mike Fiers was roughed up in his first Houston start, but better in his next two. His 15.0 K-BB% is above average. It’s not as good as last season, but more reasonable for his SwStr% and still fine. He’s still generating too much hard contact, but even that’s improved in Houston (7.7 Hard-Soft%) so far. He faces one of the few above average road offenses tonight (10.0 BB%) and top one against RHP (14.4 HR/FB). They represent a fairly unfavorable park adjusted matchup here.
Wei-Yin Chen has a 13.5 HR/FB at home since last season and that’s very scary for a fly ball pitcher, but he’s tempered it with a 3.8 BB% over the same span, meaning he doesn’t compound the issue. He’s otherwise generating plenty of weak contact this season (4.1 Hard-Soft%) with an average strikeout rate and faces the worst road offense in baseball (22.5 K%) and a slightly favorable park adjusted matchup.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Johnny Cueto (.240 BABIP – 77.8 LOB% – 7.5 HR/FB) – Instead of debating the sustainability of these stats today, the real reason he’s here is that nobody has been able to stop the Boston offense. It’s the worst park-adjusted matchup tonight outside of Colorado and a toss-up even then.
John Lackey (.282 BABIP – _ 80.7 LOB%_ – 8.0 HR/FB) – The low HR rate is part of the St Louis chemistry, but not the high strand rate. It’s not even a dislike for him as a pitcher as it is a dislike for paying up for him, especially on the road, even though he’s in a good park tonight with a good matchup tonight. The Padres have been hot though (15.5 K% over the last week).
Hector Santiago (.256 BABIP – 85.2 LOB% – 9.2 HR/FB) – He’s a LHP facing the Blue Jays tonight.
Tommy Milone (.267 BABIP – 78.8 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB) – You would think his HR rate going the other way would cancel out the low BABIP, but it has not. He has just a 9.4 K-BB% and a scary park for his profile tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Justin Verlander is basically my cutoff (along with Cueto) tonight. He has been pitching better, though not as good as his ERA over the last month and is really a neutral pitcher in a neutral spot at a neutral price with more risk than you’d like tonight. If he keeps it going tonight, though, we may have to re-evaluate. I don’t absolutely hate him in GPP’s, though, even though I won’t list him below.
Rubby de la Rosa has normalized his HR rate over the last month, pitching in normal parks twice, but the improvement in his ERA is mostly due to a .263 BABIP and 83.8 LOB%, though his SwStr% shows a lot more upside than a 14.4 K%. He’s still too scary proposition in a park that favors power against a team with some of it.
Kendry Flores has pitched just four innings out of the bullpen in August, so it’s unlikely he gets to even five innings tonight. He just touched AA and AAA for the first time this season where his K% dropped to below average. The Marlins have aggressively promoted young pitchers, but he has less pedigree than most of the others though he could be okay for four innings with the favorable matchup.
Bartolo Colon – Nearly 1/3 of the batters he faces hit the ball in the air. How’s that likely to turn out in Colorado?
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 19.5% | 6.2% | Home | 22.8% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 4.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 18.2% | 3.1% | Road | 15.8% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 3.7% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 16.9% | 7.1% | Road | 20.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 9.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 26.6% | 5.3% | Road | 26.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 5.3% |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 18.6% | 7.9% | Home | 21.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 5.7% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 30.8% | 5.3% | Road | 30.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 7.3% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.7% | 5.5% | Road | 18.2% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 5.6% |
| David Holmberg | Reds | 12.2% | 13.1% | Home | 13.3% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 16.3% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 25.0% | 4.2% | Road | 25.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 5.0% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 23.0% | 6.6% | Road | 24.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 25.9% | 5.9% | Home | 25.6% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 4.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 22.5% | 8.5% | Home | 23.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 6.4% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.3% | 8.9% | Home | 22.3% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 8.2% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | 23.9% | 8.5% | Home | 34.5% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 10.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 17.1% | 8.6% | Home | 16.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.9% | 7.6% | Road | 17.7% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 3.5% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 18.8% | 5.5% | Road | 15.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 5.5% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 24.0% | 6.2% | Road | 21.4% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | 23.7% | 6.8% | Home | 24.3% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 19.3% | 7.0% | Home | 15.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 9.8% |
| Kendry Flores | Marlins | 12.1% | 6.1% | Home | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 18.3% | 5.2% | Home | 19.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 11.6% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 25.9% | 4.9% | Road | 23.8% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 1.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 24.8% | 4.4% | Home | 25.4% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 5.5% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | 24.8% | 7.7% | Home | 24.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 17.9% | 7.4% | Road | 17.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 9.1% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.1% | 9.1% | Road | 18.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 14.0% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 16.3% | 7.1% | Road | 15.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 19.2% | 5.3% | Home | 19.1% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 3.9% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Road | 21.7% | 7.4% | RH | 19.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.2% | 7.0% | RH | 20.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 4.7% |
| Astros | Home | 24.5% | 8.9% | LH | 23.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 27.2% | 7.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.2% | 8.9% | RH | 19.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.9% |
| Rays | Road | 21.0% | 7.2% | RH | 22.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 4.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.9% | 7.8% | LH | 21.2% | 6.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 6.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.7% | 7.8% | RH | 20.1% | 6.8% | L7Days | 25.2% | 7.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.8% | 7.5% | LH | 21.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.1% |
| Angels | Home | 19.8% | 7.7% | LH | 18.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.1% | 5.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 16.0% | 7.5% | LH | 17.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.0% | 5.5% | RH | 20.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.6% | 5.8% | LH | 20.8% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.7% | 8.0% | LH | 16.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.2% |
| Royals | Road | 16.7% | 5.4% | LH | 15.1% | 5.6% | L7Days | 15.0% | 9.7% |
| Giants | Road | 18.9% | 7.1% | LH | 19.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.5% | 7.0% | RH | 19.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 16.4% | 6.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.4% | 8.6% | RH | 21.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 11.8% |
| Padres | Home | 22.6% | 6.5% | RH | 21.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 15.5% | 8.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.9% | 7.7% | RH | 16.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 14.2% | 8.3% |
| Mets | Road | 22.7% | 6.6% | RH | 20.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 27.5% | 6.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.7% | 6.9% | RH | 19.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.8% | 5.6% | RH | 19.6% | 5.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.4% |
| Braves | Road | 18.4% | 6.8% | RH | 17.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.6% | 7.1% | LH | 22.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.7% |
| Indians | Road | 18.8% | 8.5% | RH | 19.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.4% | 10.0% | RH | 20.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 12.2% |
| Reds | Home | 19.1% | 8.8% | RH | 19.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.8% | 8.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.7% | 9.5% | RH | 24.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.7% | 8.2% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.7% | 6.8% | LH | 21.7% | 5.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 5.7% |
| Twins | Road | 22.5% | 6.8% | LH | 19.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.2% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 20.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | Home | 20.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.4% | 9.3% | 7.6% | Road | 22.0% | 9.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 10.0% | 5.0% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 15.3% | 12.8% | 3.4% | Road | 12.3% | 6.4% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 19.1% | 9.4% | 5.8% | Road | 19.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 23.8% | 5.1% | 14.1% | Home | 22.2% | 3.3% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 19.6% | 10.1% | 11.8% | Road | 19.5% | 6.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 20.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | Road | 21.1% | 9.7% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| David Holmberg | Reds | 17.4% | 17.3% | 6.7% | Home | 16.3% | 15.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 36.4% | 9.1% |
| David Price | Blue Jays | 22.5% | 8.4% | 10.2% | Road | 21.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 19.5% | 11.1% | 14.2% | Road | 21.6% | 12.1% | 20.6% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 17.9% | 12.3% | 7.7% | Home | 18.1% | 12.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 20.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | Home | 20.5% | 2.9% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 18.7% | 8.6% | 11.6% | Home | 17.7% | 8.7% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 5.3% | 15.8% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | 21.3% | 13.0% | 26.1% | Home | 27.8% | 50.0% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 20.0% | 26.7% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 22.3% | 12.8% | 6.8% | Home | 22.2% | 10.2% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | Road | 20.0% | 5.8% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.5% | 10.3% | 12.3% | Road | 19.2% | 14.7% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 20.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | Road | 21.5% | 6.9% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.0% | 10.0% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | 17.1% | 5.9% | 17.6% | Home | 26.9% | 0.0% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 6.3% | 18.8% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 20.6% | 7.4% | 11.6% | Home | 16.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Kendry Flores | Marlins | 19.2% | 0.0% | 12.5% | Home | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 20.7% | 8.9% | 12.0% | Home | 20.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 20.9% | 9.8% | 12.8% | Road | 18.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 22.4% | 15.6% | 9.4% | Home | 21.0% | 18.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | 20.6% | 9.7% | 13.1% | Home | 21.7% | 13.6% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 19.6% | 14.7% | 7.1% | Road | 21.8% | 15.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.2% | 8.5% | 10.9% | Road | 16.3% | 10.9% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 21.7% | 11.7% | 15.0% | Road | 24.1% | 14.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 20.8% | 12.5% | 10.3% | Home | 21.6% | 13.5% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 2.6% | 9.5% | 14.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Road | 21.6% | 11.0% | 11.0% | RH | 22.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.6% | 16.1% | 5.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.4% | 12.9% | 8.2% | RH | 21.3% | 14.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| Astros | Home | 18.2% | 17.5% | 10.6% | LH | 19.8% | 13.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.6% | 9.4% | 18.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.2% | 14.8% | 11.2% | RH | 20.9% | 13.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 15.1% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| Rays | Road | 21.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | RH | 21.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.2% | 5.8% | 23.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.5% | 11.8% | 7.7% | LH | 21.4% | 13.1% | 10.4% | L7Days | 24.8% | 21.3% | 2.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | RH | 21.8% | 10.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 29.3% | 19.6% | 8.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.0% | 10.5% | 10.0% | LH | 19.0% | 11.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.8% | 4.7% | 7.8% |
| Angels | Home | 21.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | LH | 18.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% | L7Days | 16.8% | 13.8% | 9.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.6% | 6.7% | 11.3% | LH | 18.6% | 7.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 18.7% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.7% | 9.5% | 10.5% | RH | 21.4% | 11.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.9% | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | LH | 18.6% | 11.5% | 5.7% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.1% | 5.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 18.9% | 12.9% | 14.0% | LH | 20.3% | 13.1% | 18.4% | L7Days | 19.7% | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Royals | Road | 22.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | LH | 23.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Giants | Road | 22.1% | 12.3% | 5.9% | LH | 20.8% | 8.0% | 4.0% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.5% | 9.7% | 8.5% | RH | 20.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.3% | 12.5% | 14.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.9% | 11.8% | 9.1% | RH | 20.8% | 12.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% |
| Padres | Home | 19.7% | 11.4% | 7.1% | RH | 19.4% | 10.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.2% | 13.8% | 6.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.8% | 11.7% | 9.1% | RH | 20.3% | 9.8% | 10.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 17.9% | 3.8% |
| Mets | Road | 23.3% | 8.1% | 10.8% | RH | 22.5% | 10.1% | 12.2% | L7Days | 19.5% | 17.8% | 8.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 19.0% | 11.2% | 9.3% | RH | 19.0% | 10.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.6% | 17.7% | 12.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | RH | 22.5% | 8.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.0% | 14.6% | 12.5% |
| Braves | Road | 22.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | RH | 21.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.1% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.7% | 11.4% | 5.7% | LH | 22.9% | 11.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.5% | 6.6% |
| Indians | Road | 20.6% | 9.9% | 10.4% | RH | 21.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.3% | 16.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.2% | 13.4% | 9.7% | RH | 21.6% | 14.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.6% | 15.8% | 12.3% |
| Reds | Home | 22.9% | 12.7% | 8.8% | RH | 20.8% | 10.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 11.6% | 14.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.3% | 11.2% | 11.4% | RH | 20.0% | 11.7% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.1% | 20.8% | 11.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.8% | 16.5% | 7.7% | LH | 21.3% | 12.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.3% | 20.0% | 4.0% |
| Twins | Road | 19.4% | 8.6% | 11.2% | LH | 19.5% | 11.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 18.0% | 13.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 19.4% | 8.1% | 2.40 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 2.34 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 17.5% | 6.4% | 2.73 | 13.2% | 4.5% | 2.93 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 16.1% | 6.9% | 2.33 | 11.0% | 5.1% | 2.16 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.1% | 13.1% | 2.07 | 25.0% | 12.4% | 2.02 |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.24 | 26.0% | 11.8% | 2.20 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 32.8% | 15.5% | 2.12 | 32.9% | 15.3% | 2.15 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 18.0% | 8.3% | 2.17 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 1.99 |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.00 | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.00 |
| David Price | TOR | 23.8% | 11.2% | 2.13 | 24.3% | 10.3% | 2.36 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 29.8% | 11.3% | 2.64 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 1.65 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 23.3% | 10.7% | 2.18 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 2.07 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.26 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 2.28 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.60 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 2.75 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 23.9% | 10.4% | 2.30 | 23.9% | 10.4% | 2.30 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.8% | 9.3% | 1.91 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.92 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | ||||||
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 20.5% | 10.4% | 1.97 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 2.48 |
| John Lackey | STL | 17.7% | 8.8% | 2.01 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 2.17 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.17 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 2.23 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 23.7% | 10.4% | 2.28 | 23.7% | 10.4% | 2.28 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 18.6% | 10.0% | 1.86 | 23.2% | 11.4% | 2.04 |
| Kendry Flores | FLA | 12.1% | 12.9% | 0.94 | 17.7% | 14.8% | 1.20 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.4% | 7.4% | 2.76 | 22.3% | 7.0% | 3.19 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 26.7% | 12.6% | 2.12 | 33.8% | 14.5% | 2.33 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 23.2% | 12.1% | 1.92 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 1.59 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 23.4% | 9.3% | 2.52 | 25.0% | 9.6% | 2.60 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 19.0% | 11.4% | 1.67 | 14.4% | 10.5% | 1.37 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 20.5% | 9.1% | 2.25 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 2.28 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 16.5% | 7.3% | 2.26 | 15.3% | 6.1% | 2.51 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 20.1% | 9.0% | 2.23 | 19.2% | 9.5% | 2.02 |
Chris Bassitt has at least a 12.6 SwStr% in each of his last three starts.
Masahiro Tanaka has a slightly reduced K% over the last month, but no drop off in SwStr%.
Mike Fiers has a K% now pretty much in line with his SwStr%, as we projected to eventually happen with his strikeout rate dropping below 25%, but still above league average. He moves from a good framing situation in a down year for the Milwaukee catchers (+8.6 RAA combined via StatCorner.com) to a great one in Houston (+18 RAA combined) and should be able to sustain his presence near the top of the K/SwStr range.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.2 | 3.96 | -0.24 | 3.85 | -0.35 | 3.94 | -0.26 | 4.55 | 4.44 | -0.11 | 4.14 | -0.41 | 4.15 | -0.4 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.58 | 3.87 | -0.71 | 3.86 | -0.72 | 3.77 | -0.81 | 3.66 | 4.32 | 0.66 | 4.12 | 0.46 | 4.36 | 0.7 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.48 | 3.43 | -0.05 | 3.51 | 0.03 | 3.82 | 0.34 | 4.73 | 4 | -0.73 | 4.06 | -0.67 | 4.72 | -0.01 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.63 | 2.83 | -0.8 | 2.79 | -0.84 | 2.88 | -0.75 | 2.68 | 2.8 | 0.12 | 2.73 | 0.05 | 2.97 | 0.29 |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | 2.6 | 3.91 | 1.31 | 4.15 | 1.55 | 3.65 | 1.05 | 2.34 | 3 | 0.66 | 3.05 | 0.71 | 3.31 | 0.97 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.32 | 2.39 | -0.93 | 2.5 | -0.82 | 2.4 | -0.92 | 5.12 | 2.44 | -2.68 | 2.63 | -2.49 | 2.32 | -2.8 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.49 | 4.14 | -0.35 | 4.41 | -0.08 | 4.11 | -0.38 | 4.01 | 3.84 | -0.17 | 4.04 | 0.03 | 4.74 | 0.73 |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 5.95 | 5.89 | -0.06 | 5.84 | -0.11 | 7.33 | 1.38 | 5.95 | 5.9 | -0.05 | 5.84 | -0.11 | 7.33 | 1.38 |
| David Price | TOR | 2.41 | 3.35 | 0.94 | 3.36 | 0.95 | 2.92 | 0.51 | 2.72 | 3.4 | 0.68 | 3.61 | 0.89 | 3.27 | 0.55 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 4.35 | 2.84 | -1.51 | 3.01 | -1.34 | 5.19 | 0.84 | 11.25 | 4.79 | -6.46 | 4.76 | -6.49 | 9.11 | -2.14 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 3.65 | 3.23 | -0.42 | 3.19 | -0.46 | 3.52 | -0.13 | 7.28 | 3.15 | -4.13 | 3.34 | -3.94 | 4.52 | -2.76 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.86 | 3.72 | -0.14 | 3.57 | -0.29 | 3.06 | -0.8 | 3.55 | 3.66 | 0.11 | 3.55 | 0 | 2.08 | -1.47 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.86 | 4.02 | 1.16 | 4.45 | 1.59 | 4.1 | 1.24 | 5.08 | 4.51 | -0.57 | 5.18 | 0.1 | 5.51 | 0.43 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 6.19 | 3.89 | -2.3 | 4.17 | -2.02 | 4.54 | -1.65 | 6.19 | 3.89 | -2.3 | 4.17 | -2.02 | 4.54 | -1.65 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.31 | 4.19 | -0.12 | 3.98 | -0.33 | 3.96 | -0.35 | 5.54 | 4.4 | -1.14 | 4.18 | -1.36 | 4.91 | -0.63 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | ||||||||||||||
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.61 | 3.87 | 0.26 | 3.86 | 0.25 | 3.92 | 0.31 | 1.57 | 3.42 | 1.85 | 3.39 | 1.82 | 3.02 | 1.45 |
| John Lackey | STL | 2.87 | 4.08 | 1.21 | 4.01 | 1.14 | 3.58 | 0.71 | 2.8 | 3.82 | 1.02 | 3.68 | 0.88 | 3.73 | 0.93 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 2.46 | 3.5 | 1.04 | 3.52 | 1.06 | 3.07 | 0.61 | 1.42 | 3.85 | 2.43 | 3.8 | 2.38 | 2.63 | 1.21 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 2.4 | 3.56 | 1.16 | 3.66 | 1.26 | 2.91 | 0.51 | 2.4 | 3.56 | 1.16 | 3.66 | 1.26 | 2.91 | 0.51 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.11 | 4.26 | 0.15 | 4.44 | 0.33 | 4.23 | 0.12 | 1.75 | 3.64 | 1.89 | 3.81 | 2.06 | 2.47 | 0.72 |
| Kendry Flores | FLA | 2.35 | 4.23 | 1.88 | 4.73 | 2.38 | 3.24 | 0.89 | 4.5 | 3.06 | -1.44 | 3.07 | -1.43 | 2.36 | -2.14 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.97 | 3.53 | -0.44 | 3.44 | -0.53 | 3.52 | -0.45 | 6.08 | 3.76 | -2.32 | 3.4 | -2.68 | 4.49 | -1.59 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.98 | 2.92 | -0.06 | 2.93 | -0.05 | 2.85 | -0.13 | 2.06 | 1.98 | -0.08 | 1.81 | -0.25 | 1.45 | -0.61 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.56 | 3.34 | -0.22 | 3.26 | -0.3 | 4.03 | 0.47 | 3.38 | 3.85 | 0.47 | 3.66 | 0.28 | 4.46 | 1.08 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 3.87 | 3.78 | -0.09 | 3.93 | 0.06 | 3.83 | -0.04 | 4.18 | 3.41 | -0.77 | 3.51 | -0.67 | 3.32 | -0.86 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 4.4 | 3.92 | -0.48 | 3.8 | -0.6 | 4.63 | 0.23 | 2.81 | 4.58 | 1.77 | 4.43 | 1.62 | 4.17 | 1.36 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 2.43 | 3.95 | 1.52 | 3.86 | 1.43 | 3.21 | 0.78 | 2.78 | 4.36 | 1.58 | 4.32 | 1.54 | 3.26 | 0.48 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 3.65 | 4.44 | 0.79 | 4.3 | 0.65 | 4.76 | 1.11 | 4.76 | 4.18 | -0.58 | 3.87 | -0.89 | 4.81 | 0.05 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 3.2 | 3.86 | 0.66 | 4 | 0.8 | 4.39 | 1.19 | 4.59 | 3.94 | -0.65 | 4.3 | -0.29 | 4.88 | 0.29 |
Carlos Carrasco – If you look at his ERA over the last month, that’s who his peripherals said he had the potential to be all season long. What’s happened is a massive drop in BABIP (an unsustainable .192 since the break in fact) along with jumps in weak ground balls and his LOB%. Over the last month (five starts) he has a -9.6 Hard-Soft% and 2.48 GB/FB. More ground balls and weak contact while maintaining an elite strikeout rate will pretty much do it.
Chris Bassitt has turned some average underlying numbers into a great ERA through an extremely low BABIP. He is a fly ball pitcher who gets a lot of pop ups in a great park and has a low Z-Contact%, so there’s something to it, but it’s still likely to see some regression in addition to his 79.0 LOB%. His 7.5 HR/FB is fine in Oakland.
David Price is stranding 79.5% of his runners, which is higher than the career rate of any other starting pitcher (at least 500 IP). So while every year a few pitchers hit 80%, we have to expect regression and that along with a 7.9 HR/FB that isn’t too far below his career rate, are the reasons his estimators are higher than his ERA.
Drew Smyly is kind of difficult to analyze off of just four starts and a shoulder injury.
Felix Hernandez has allowed 17 of his 24 ERs in just two of his five starts over the last month. That’s going to cause some havoc in your ERA and estimators.
Henry Owens now has just a 65.7 LOB% to go along with a .333 BABIP and 13.0 HR/FB after a strange last outing.
Jimmy Nelson has shown some improvement in his K% over the last month, although his SwStr% has actually dropped, but a lot of the dominance has been due to a .228 BABIP and 86.5 LOB%. He has done a good job managing contact authority over that span though (1.74 GB/FB with a 4.2 Hard-Soft%).
Wei-Yin Chen has stranded 83.1 LOB% with a 13.4 HR/FB, which makes the strand rate seem even more fluky. His career strand rate is 76.9% even with this year’s number baked in. He profiles as more of an average pitcher and even below average with the high fly ball and HR rate at home.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.297 | 0.312 | 0.015 | 8.8% | 89.4% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.281 | 0.313 | 0.032 | 7.2% | 90.1% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.301 | 0.310 | 0.009 | 1.3% | 92.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.292 | 0.300 | 0.008 | 6.8% | 84.9% |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | 0.282 | 0.246 | -0.036 | 11.9% | 84.7% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.313 | 0.317 | 0.004 | 9.4% | 77.1% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.296 | 0.284 | -0.012 | 9.0% | 89.5% |
| David Holmberg | CIN | 0.284 | 0.228 | -0.056 | 8.0% | 92.0% |
| David Price | TOR | 0.281 | 0.291 | 0.01 | 11.8% | 82.6% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 0.280 | 0.229 | -0.051 | 13.0% | 91.1% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.295 | 0.301 | 0.006 | 9.1% | 88.4% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.308 | 0.345 | 0.037 | 2.2% | 87.3% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.281 | 0.256 | -0.025 | 10.6% | 86.4% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 0.308 | 0.333 | 0.025 | 26.1% | 81.5% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.303 | 0.306 | 0.003 | 5.0% | 86.2% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.320 | ||||
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.301 | 0.279 | -0.022 | 11.5% | 87.0% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.288 | 0.282 | -0.006 | 11.4% | 90.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 0.279 | 0.240 | -0.039 | 10.6% | 86.4% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 0.314 | 0.225 | -0.089 | 17.6% | 91.2% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.301 | 0.275 | -0.026 | 10.9% | 85.0% |
| Kendry Flores | FLA | 0.294 | 0.346 | 0.052 | 12.5% | 82.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.295 | 0.303 | 0.008 | 10.0% | 89.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.286 | 0.294 | 0.008 | 14.3% | 86.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.298 | 0.241 | -0.057 | 8.6% | 86.1% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.283 | 0.314 | 0.031 | 13.0% | 85.3% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.292 | 0.286 | -0.006 | 5.0% | 83.8% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 0.306 | 0.269 | -0.037 | 8.5% | 87.0% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 0.299 | 0.267 | -0.032 | 16.2% | 88.5% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.291 | 0.274 | -0.017 | 11.2% | 87.0% |
Gio Gonzalez is generating a lot more ground balls this year, but not necessarily a ton of weak contact (9.7 Hard-Soft% is fairly average). That alone shouldn’t generate a high BABIP, but the Nationals have trouble with ground balls and he’s generated just two pop ups all season. With a normal line drive rate (20.3%) and otherwise average rates and stats, he should see some regression, but I wouldn’t expect much in this case due to the new batted ball profile and defense.
Masahiro Tanaka has a standard batted ball profile (1.32 GB/FB, 20.0 LD%), doesn’t induce a lot of weak contact, and has no favorable circumstances or indicators surrounding him. There’s really nothing that points to his ability to sustain this and it doesn’t look to affect his ERA because a high HR/FB balances out any potential gap between it and his ERA estimators.
Mike Fiers has seen a large drop in his BABIP as the season’s gone on and he’s reduced his hard contact rate to something still high, but more reasonable. It’s not and won’t be his .224 BABIP from last year, but he may find the Houston defense better positioned and more accommodating in this regard, especially if he retains an elite IFFB%.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Henry Owens isn’t going to miss 18 bats against Kansas City, but shouldn’t allow three HRs again either. He’s shown he’s capable of missing major league bats at an above average rate though. The likely potential of even just a league average performance as a well below average cost makes him a great GPP option tonight.
Brett Anderson – The plummeting strikeout rate is concerning and doesn’t have him as highly valued as usual, but it’s still top tier stuff because he’s still generating an enormous amount of weak ground balls, facing a Houston offense that could bump his strikeout rate to something more reasonable at an associated cost that remains low.
Jonathan Gray – Normally, we automatically toss the Colorado pitchers, but haven’t been always doing so recently. Not only do we not do that tonight, but we’re calling him one of our dumpster diving specials tonight. He faces a poor road team, though still unfavorable with the massive park bump, but his stuff has played well at the major league level including two good starts at home. He can easily be worth more than his low price tag here. I actually have him as my #3 projected K% tonight.
Value Tier Two
Chris Sale (1) – Now we get into our more reliable and expensive cash game/double up types. Chris Sale is your top guy on the board tonight in a great environment where I project him to easily have the top K% tonight with only Bumgarner also near 25% and a distant 2nd. The Mariners have some pop and hit the ball hard, but his -0.5 Hard-Soft% in addition to the protection the park provides make him a pretty reasonable choice to find a way to pay up for.
Madison Bumgarner (2) projects for a lower K% than Sale, as mentioned, but still a strong 2nd best in a bit a slightly tougher spot, but also in a park that kills RH power at a similar cost. I have no problem using him where reasonably cheaper than Sale (like on DraftKings) if he’s an easier fit.
Felix Hernandez (3) – The inconsistency and most recent start may be a put off, but that’s also greatly reduced his cost in some places and he’s been really good in starts where he’s not getting bombed, which is most of them. He has the most favorable matchup tonight in a great home park.
Value Tier Three
Andrew Cashner is a more speculative and risky play tonight with the way he’s been pitching and a scary drop in K% but his velocity wasn’t off in his last start and has pitched well at home. I’ve got to think he’s still better than his current cost against an offense that is probably over-valued here.
Chris Bassitt is not as good as his ERA, but his league average profile is better than anyone expected and plays up further in a pitching favorable environment like Oakland where he has a very good matchup at a still below average cost.
Carlos Carrasco (5) has been pitching great and probably is still reasonably priced (on the high end) only due the environment he faces tonight. That’s really the only argument against him tonight. He should still be able to generate a well above average K%, though there’s the risk of some damage being done with that.
Masahiro Tanaka (6) is pitching like a guy with all the good elbow ligaments. He has the upside of a few of the top pitchers tonight (though probably not Sale), but with more risk in his HR rate, which is why the cost is a bit lower. Cleveland isn’t an unfavorable matchup here.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Drew Smyly – I’d push him up higher here if I thought he had a reasonable shot at going six innings or more before people pulled, but Tampa Bay is cautious with their young starters.
David Price (4) should be very solid in a decent spot, but may not have the upside of a Sale or Bumgarner at a similar cost.
Wei-Yin Chen
Gio Gonzalez has a great matchup, but control issues preventing him from consistently going deep into games and without as much upside as in previous seasons due to the reduced strikeout rate and increased ground balls, makes paying up for him a questionable decision.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.